BC morning line maker

[Valuist]

Was clearly asleep at the wheel when they made these. THey clearly are showing their provincialism, putting several Southern California horses much lower than fair value. IMO, here's a few bad morning lines on horses who do not merit anywhere the respect the linemaker is giving them:

Filly Sprint: Intangaroo 9-2.
Juvenile Filly Turf: Saucey Evening 9-2 has never routed on turf and coming out of a state bred race
Marathon: Zappa 5-2
Turf Sprint Get Funky a lower price than Mr Nightlinger
Mile Dirt: Albertus Maximus 4-1
Mile: Whatsthescript lower odds from the 11 hole than Kip Deville??
Juvenile: Munnings 7-2
Juvenile Turf: Coronet of a Baron 9-2. Hes never run on turf and his Tomlinson doesnt suggest he'll move up at all on it.

[DJofSD]

Asleep at the wheel is being kind. I always wonder if any one ever goes back to see how closely the ML is to what the public eventually decides.

[MBourassa]

Was clearly asleep at the wheel when they made these. THey clearly are showing their provincialism, putting several Southern California horses much lower than fair value. IMO, here's a few bad morning lines on horses who do not merit anywhere the respect the linemaker is giving them:

Filly Sprint: Intangaroo 9-2.
Juvenile Filly Turf: Saucey Evening 9-2 has never routed on turf and coming out of a state bred race
Marathon: Zappa 5-2
Turf Sprint Get Funky a lower price than Mr Nightlinger
Mile Dirt: Albertus Maximus 4-1
Mile: Whatsthescript lower odds from the 11 hole than Kip Deville??
Juvenile: Munnings 7-2
Juvenile Turf: Coronet of a Baron 9-2. Hes never run on turf and his Tomlinson doesnt suggest he'll move up at all on it.

Intangaroo 4 wins from 6 starts. 3 grade 1 wins. 9-2. there is plenty of value.

[Valuist]

Intangaroo 4 wins from 6 starts. 3 grade 1 wins. 9-2. there is plenty of value.

She's a better horse on real dirt and her 2 wins there were the result of a race falling apart late. Her Grade 1 over the surface was against a weak Grade 1 field. In her last synthetic race, she was off the board against Dearest Trickski and Magnificience, both of whom figure to be at least 10-1 today.

[Tom]

The only morning lines I care about is my crack hit.:D

[DJofSD]

Well it appears there is descension in the ranks. How about you guys posting the ML you have created for the Intangaroo race. No names necessary just the ML odds in order from the favorite upwards with the exception being Intangaroo.

[MBourassa]

She's a better horse on real dirt and her 2 wins there were the result of a race falling apart late. Her Grade 1 over the surface was against a weak Grade 1 field. In her last synthetic race, she was off the board against Dearest Trickski and Magnificience, both of whom figure to be at least 10-1 today.

last time in the gr .2
at hollywood they went 45.2 to the half. Look at the races where they went below 45 she has been right there. i will take my chances. the pace in here looks insane. my guess they go 44.2

[startngate]

Was clearly asleep at the wheel when they made these. THey clearly are showing their provincialism, putting several Southern California horses much lower than fair value.As well the morning line oddsmaker SHOULD.

The ML is not handicapping who you think will win. It's trying to make a guess as to what the final odds will be at post time. Big difference!

It makes perfect sense for a morning line maker to bump the locals to shorter odds, as there will be a bias by the local attendees to bet the horses they know. There is also a feeling among many handicappers that experience over the surfaces will be an important factor the next two days.

It's also why the odds at the UK bookmakers are often shorter on the European horses than the odds are on this side of the pond. People bet what they know.

May not play out that way, but better for anyone who takes a stand against ... :)

[DJofSD]

You make the assumption that most bettors and most of the money is either on-track or from locals. I don't think this is the case.

[Valuist]

Well it appears there is descension in the ranks. How about you guys posting the ML you have created for the Intangaroo race. No names necessary just the ML odds in order from the favorite upwards with the exception being Intangaroo.

Indian Blessing 8-5
Ventura 5-1
Zaftig 7-1
Intangaroo 10-1
Tiz Elemental 10-1
Indyanne 12-1
Dearest Trickski 15-1
Magnificience 20-1
everyone else over 20-1

Indian Blessing has to be a prohibitive favorite. If it was 6f, she'd be even money. She would've been a contender in the Sprint tomorrow.

[Valuist]

As well the morning line oddsmaker SHOULD.

The ML is not handicapping who you think will win. It's trying to make a guess as to what the final odds will be at post time. Big difference!

It makes perfect sense for a morning line maker to bump the locals to shorter odds, as there will be a bias by the local attendees to bet the horses they know. There is also a feeling among many handicappers that experience over the surfaces will be an important factor the next two days.

It's also why the odds at the UK bookmakers are often shorter on the European horses than the odds are on this side of the pond. People bet what they know.

May not play out that way, but better for anyone who takes a stand against ... :)

Re: the UK bookmakers, those linemakers are very, very sharp and when they take a stand one way and the American public goes the other way, they are invariably right. Seen it too many times before.

[startngate]

You make the assumption that most bettors and most of the money is either on-track or from locals. I don't think this is the case.You didn't read the whole paragraph ...

There is also a feeling among many handicappers that experience over the surfaces will be an important factor the next two days.All in all, IMO the first two M-L's from your group weren't that bad. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow plays out.

RACE 3:
Pgm # | Horse | Final Odds (from TwinSpires) | M-L

5 | INDIAN BLESSING | 9/5 | 2
3 | INTANGAROO | 6 | 9/2 (2nd choice ML vs 4th choice final)
12 | VENTURA | 5/2 | 5
6 | ZAFTIG | 5 | 8
9 | DEAREST TRICKSKI | 12 | 15
4 | LADY SPRINTER | 35 | 15
8 | TIZ ELEMENTAL | 20 | 20
10 | MIRACULOUS MISS | 35 | 20
7 | DREAM RUSH | 45 | 20
1 | MAGNIFICIENCE | 30 | 20
11 | JAZZY | 80 | 20
14 | LA TEE | 99 | 30
13 | TIZZY'S TUNE | 40 | 30

RACE 4:
Pgm # | Horse | Final Odds (from TwinSpires) | M-L

2 | LARAGH | 5/2 | 7/2
11 | SAUCEY EVENING | 6 | 9/2 (2nd choice ML vs 3rd choice final)
5 | EMMY DARLING | 24 | 8
4 | C KARMA | 12 | 8
7 | CONSEQUENCE | 3 | 8
6 | FREEDOM RINGS | 25 | 8
8 | SUGAR MOM | 11 | 10
3 | MARAM | 11 | 10
9 | RENDA | 24 | 10
1 | APRIL PRIDE | 25 | 12
10 | BEYOND OUR REACH | 12 | 15
12 | HEART SHAPED | 10 | 15

[Valuist]

You didn't read the whole paragraph ...
All in all, IMO the first two M-L's from your group weren't that bad. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow plays out.

RACE 3:
Pgm # | Horse | Final Odds (from TwinSpires) | M-L

5 | INDIAN BLESSING | 9/5 | 2
3 | INTANGAROO | 6 | 9/2 (2nd choice ML vs 4th choice final)
12 | VENTURA | 5/2 | 5
6 | ZAFTIG | 5 | 8
9 | DEAREST TRICKSKI | 12 | 15
4 | LADY SPRINTER | 35 | 15
8 | TIZ ELEMENTAL | 20 | 20
10 | MIRACULOUS MISS | 35 | 20
7 | DREAM RUSH | 45 | 20
1 | MAGNIFICIENCE | 30 | 20
11 | JAZZY | 80 | 20
14 | LA TEE | 99 | 30
13 | TIZZY'S TUNE | 40 | 30

RACE 4:
Pgm # | Horse | Final Odds (from TwinSpires) | M-L

2 | LARAGH | 5/2 | 7/2
11 | SAUCEY EVENING | 6 | 9/2 (2nd choice ML vs 3rd choice final)
5 | EMMY DARLING | 24 | 8
4 | C KARMA | 12 | 8
7 | CONSEQUENCE | 3 | 8
6 | FREEDOM RINGS | 25 | 8
8 | SUGAR MOM | 11 | 10
3 | MARAM | 11 | 10
9 | RENDA | 24 | 10
1 | APRIL PRIDE | 25 | 12
10 | BEYOND OUR REACH | 12 | 15
12 | HEART SHAPED | 10 | 15


I don't know anyone who made any money betting Intangaroo or Saucey Evening.....maybe in a head to head matchup offshore.

[startngate]

The ML is not handicapping who you think will win. It's trying to make a guess as to what the final odds will be at post time. Big difference!Making money betting is not what a ML is about ... if it is done right by the ML oddsmaker.

[bobphilo]

Making money betting is not what a ML is about ... if it is done right by the ML oddsmaker.

Glad you made that point. Something I've often posted myself. The ML maker's job is not to predict winners and their fair odds, but to predict how the public will bet and what the odds will be at post-time.

For example if ML maker A's top picks win 28% of their races, ML maker B's 33% and ML maker C's 45 % of their races, everything else being equal, who is doing the best job? The answer is B, followed by, A followed by C, since this order best reflects the average win % of favorites. If anybody said C, B, A, they're refering to a selction sheet and not a morning line.

Bob

[BeatTheChalk]

Asleep at the wheel is being kind. I always wonder if any one ever goes back to see how closely the ML is to what the public eventually decides.

Oh nothing ... I just laff every time I see your quote about the
"" Dude with a Pencil ""
As for the Morning Line - Raven was sitting there at 6-1 which I think
was either 2nd or 3rd choice. And no I didnt bet it :bang:

[BeatTheChalk]

The only morning lines I care about is my crack hit.:D

All I can say is :lol: :) :p :cool: :ThmbUp: