Your personal Breeders Cup Tips?

[JustRalph]

I know everybody has their own idea of what they should and shouldn't bet in the Breeders Cup? Example: Euros on Turf? Yes or no?

I have also heard/read some prefer east coast horses over West Coast.

I know there are some longtime players on this board............ I am interested in what you long time players think about some of these things?

I know that I am completely flummoxed by the Euros .........so I would love to hear some of your opinions on how to bet the Euros............in fact I know some of our overseas members must have a serious advantage when it comes to these plays............I would love to hear our overseas players opinions.

If you have a bias of some sort that you think has held up for a while.........post it here.......for discussion.............? Any Takers?

[Tom]

Go for the prices.
This is the day(s) to make big money on modest investments.
Don't get sucked into hype horses.

Pay attention to horses for courses - one of the biggest scores of my life was on a turf horse who had previsouly won at Churchill - can't remember his name - a while back.

[Humph]

I'm not overseas but I do take an interest in racing across the water.

Probably the best of the turf-bound Euros this year are Soldier Of Fortune and Goldikova - both have been successful against strong opposition this season - and the former, unlike a few others making the trip this year, looks to have been campaigned with the fall in mind. However, the big question has to be, imho, how will they perform on genuinely fast turf ? Soldier Of Fortune has been his stable's slow going horse this season ( Duke Of Marmalade his stable's fast ) and Goldikova has only ever raced on good ground or softer.

Elsewhere on the turf , US Ranger looks to have struggled against the early speed in many of his races over 6 , so the extra yardage may help, but he isn't out of the top drawer and may not to be entirely straighforward, as well. Halfway To Heaven is decent , if not a superstar, and may go well .

[cmoore]

Treat this day like any other. DO NOT bet more then usual. Just because the pools are bigger and the payoffs will be fatter doesn't mean your going to hit at a higher rate.. Look for the overlays and bet accordingly.

[Tom]

I have a BC bankroll, totally separate from my day to day one. This is a special occasion that should also be fun. I don't plan and passing any races. IF I lose the whole stake, so be it. I look at it a a tourney with a buy in.

[Bobzilla]

Go for the prices.
This is the day(s) to make big money on modest investments.
Don't get sucked into hype horses.

Pay attention to horses for courses - one of the biggest scores of my life was on a turf horse who had previsouly won at Churchill - can't remember his name - a while back.


Tom, was that Opening Verse's BC Mile victory back in 1991 by any chance? My brother liked him that day based on an impressive race he had won on that same course 6 months prior. I always think back to that race as the perfect example of a horse for course angle.

[DanG]

IMO: The ironic part of this BC is the grass course will play more of a factor then the pro-ride in moving horses up or down. Having said that; the “alibis” will be fast and furious with every losing pro-ride runner.

This turf course is in every sense a billiard table with tight pockets.

Wait a While is a perfect example when we watched a fit / class animal spin her wheels at CD, where she will thrive over this course. Try and get a feel for which grass horses want to hear their feet rattle and which enjoy creamed spinach.

[eastie]

Treat this day like any other. DO NOT bet more then usual. Just because the pools are bigger and the payoffs will be fatter doesn't mean your going to hit at a higher rate.. Look for the overlays and bet accordingly.

this is the day where there is more value and bigger chances at a big score than any other day. you are supposed to bet way more than usual.
put plenty of time into it is the best advice. have a game plan.

[Tom]

Tom, was that Opening Verse's BC Mile victory back in 1991 by any chance? My brother liked him that day based on an impressive race he had won on that same course 6 months prior. I always think back to that race as the perfect example of a horse for course angle.

BINGO!

[rrpic6]

Take a Stand either for or against a "SuperHorse". Single or dismiss in your Pic 3's, 4's or 6's.

Examples:

Single Ghostzapper in 2004 Pick 4. Bet $150, get back 21K.

Throw out Nashobas Key in 2008. CRAZY, she's 7 for 7 on the Turf! Bet $ 300 in tri's and pick 3's, get back about $1100.

Single Dylan Thomas in 2008. Bet 50K in Pick 6 get back 1500. OOPS! Hoping for real bombs in other legs sometimes does not pan out. It worked in Ky. Derby with Street Sense, but not in the BC.
RR

[Charlie D]

I know that I am completely flummoxed by the Euros

I will try and help you with Euros


What you wanna know????

[JustRalph]

I will try and help you with Euros


What you wanna know????

Give me one single factor that is paramount when it comes to evaluating speed for these horses.............?

[Charlie D]

Now you've got me flummoxed

I don't understand the question your asking, i'm afraid

[JustRalph]

Now you've got me flummoxed

I don't understand the question your asking, i'm afraid


you're right. Stupid question. Let me rephrase

The two things that confuse me are the surface descriptions and time form ratings. I understand the concept behind the time form ratings but similar to Beyers from Track to Track....... I normally don't find them reliable. Am I wrong ? Is the time form rating more or less accurate than a beyer?

On the surface differences. When a track is considered firm at Santa Anita, would you consider that track firm in Europe?

just a couple places to start. I never pay attention to the Euros except during Breeders Cup time. I normally pass if too many are entered, but this time I think I am going to have to play............Thanks...........

[W2G]

Go for the prices.
This is the day(s) to make big money on modest investments.
Don't get sucked into hype horses.

Totally agree.

The BC is one of those special handicapping days (Triple crown days are others) where the pools are inflated with an inordinate percentage of "dumb money". Educated and diligent handicappers should do very well. But you still have to pick 'em.

Euros on turf in the BC always deserve special consideration. And the Euros were especially strong on the grass at SA in '03.

[lamboguy]

i am going to give you guys the best tip i can ever give you. if you are not a member of the PREMIER TURF CLUB, get yourself signed up. they are going to do an indepth clocker's report on this breeder's cup. their report is unlike any other i have ever seen. they do not charge for the report, all they want you to do is sign up with their account wagering service and get a small rebate for your bets on the 2 breeders cup days.

they didn't tell me to write this or pump them up. they are reletively new to the business and have to do things right.

i swear on my life these guys strive to be the best, and they treat the customer first and foremost.

am i a nut? of course i am! but please don't take my word, go and check them out and see for your self.

[Jayhawk Fan]

One tip I try to keep in the back of my mind every year as I handicap is that this is the year end goal for these horses, and in January these trainers mapped out a plan for them & who stayed closest to accomplishing it thus far. Another is milers normally do well in the sprint just because the speed is insane. No real milers in the sprint, the closest is Midnight Lute. Sadly I wasn't on him last year, but will be this year & the price should be better too. Another couple of horses that look interesting to me so far are Lord Admiral in the Dirt Mile (if he lands in the top 4, I'll be looking to cash a few dime supers:jump:)! US Ranger also looks interesting. He's stretching out should get a nice trip, hopefully right behind Daytona & Thorn Song. Any thought on Only Answer in the Turf Sprint? For someone as wonderful as Andre Fabre, this is the only horse he's bringing over here, so he has to think she has a shot. On paper this horse looks like an afterthought, but it just strikes me weird that this is the only horse in his barn he ships all the way over here.

[Charlie D]

Is the time form rating more or less accurate than a beyer?

Timeform ratings use weight carried in the calculation, Beyer does not use weight in his calcs

Two completely different ratings and there lies the problem, your comparing apples to oranges, instean of apples to apples

On the surface differences. When a track is considered firm at Santa Anita, would you consider that track firm in Europe?


Difficult one to answer tbh

We hardly get any races run on "Firm" because of the weather and the tendency by course officials to water the track to produce "Good, safe ground" for the horses, so making a comparison is difficult

Most of the Euro's that ship seem to cope ok with ground given as "Firm" so maybe US "Firm" is more like our Good to Firm

[Premier Turf Club]

Ralph:

I've spent a lot of time reading all the charts of the Euro preps, watching videos, reading others' opinions etc. We'll be coming out with a package that has Beyer and Woodside Associates style speed figures for the european entrants.

As far as the ground goes, it will be much faster at SA than it generally is on the other side of the pond. That being said, not all euros like some cut in the ground. Some perform better over faster surfaces, like Henrythenavigator and Folk Opera for instance.

Again, we'll have a pretty comprehensive report up on Friday.



you're right. Stupid question. Let me rephrase

The two things that confuse me are the surface descriptions and time form ratings. I understand the concept behind the time form ratings but similar to Beyers from Track to Track....... I normally don't find them reliable. Am I wrong ? Is the time form rating more or less accurate than a beyer?

On the surface differences. When a track is considered firm at Santa Anita, would you consider that track firm in Europe?

just a couple places to start. I never pay attention to the Euros except during Breeders Cup time. I normally pass if too many are entered, but this time I think I am going to have to play............Thanks...........

[Charlie D]

We'll be coming out with a package that has Beyer and Woodside Associates style speed figures for the european entrants.

Cracking stuff Ian and i hope you get the rewards that effort deserves

[Premier Turf Club]

As far as specific euros I like, Eagle Mountain comes from very crafty connections and is 2nd off a long (injury-induced) layoff. Visit is a giant price and her figures are going the right way. Beaten only 1.5 lengths by 3/1 ML Halfway to Heaven last out. She acts over firm ground and she comes from the family of Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Dansili,Heat Haze, and Leroidesanimaux.

[DeanT]

My philosophy is simple: Load up an account and bet like an idiot. It is only one day a year.

Since I am good at betting like an idiot, it makes it extra fun.

[rrbauer]

Weather: Forecast is for High of 87 both days. Will be cooler earlier in the day. Usually decent humidity this time of year, probably about 50%. Some of the Europeans do not relish warmer weather.

Turf course compared to other turf courses around the world. It will be hard/firm but carpet like. The grass is Tifgreen Bermuda (think golf course greens), very dense and kept short (actually bermuda goes dormant about this time of the year). Horses that have performed well at SA, HOL and DMR are known quantities over this type of grass. From a handicapping perspective draw a line through all races that are on soft/yielding ground because they won't mean a thing on this course. The SA turf course has very tight turns so trips and post positions will be very important.

[Charlie D]

It comes after a tough one in Arc, so that has to be a worry, but if he's over those exertions, Soldier of Fortune will win Turf

[Humph]

Soldier of Fortune will win Turf

Fast going not a concern ?

[Charlie D]

Fast going not a concern ?

No

[joelouis]

IMO: The ironic part of this BC is the grass course will play more of a factor then the pro-ride in moving horses up or down. Having said that; the “alibis” will be fast and furious with every losing pro-ride runner.

This turf course is in every sense a billiard table with tight pockets.

Wait a While is a perfect example when we watched a fit / class animal spin her wheels at CD, where she will thrive over this course. Try and get a feel for which grass horses want to hear their feet rattle and which enjoy creamed spinach.

If you betting WAIT A WHILE that is just what you will be doing if you think you will be collecting on this animal.

[joelouis]

Weather: Forecast is for High of 87 both days. Will be cooler earlier in the day. Usually decent humidity this time of year, probably about 50%. Some of the Europeans do not relish warmer weather.

Turf course compared to other turf courses around the world. It will be hard/firm but carpet like. The grass is Tifgreen Bermuda (think golf course greens), very dense and kept short (actually bermuda goes dormant about this time of the year). Horses that have performed well at SA, HOL and DMR are known quantities over this type of grass. From a handicapping perspective draw a line through all races that are on soft/yielding ground because they won't mean a thing on this course. The SA turf course has very tight turns so trips and post positions will be very important.


I agree with you 110% well said

[joelouis]

i am going to give you guys the best tip i can ever give you. if you are not a member of the PREMIER TURF CLUB, get yourself signed up. they are going to do an indepth clocker's report on this breeder's cup. their report is unlike any other i have ever seen. they do not charge for the report, all they want you to do is sign up with their account wagering service and get a small rebate for your bets on the 2 breeders cup days.

they didn't tell me to write this or pump them up. they are reletively new to the business and have to do things right.

i swear on my life these guys strive to be the best, and they treat the customer first and foremost.

am i a nut? of course i am! but please don't take my word, go and check them out and see for your self.

I have a idea, if they do not charge anything why dont you post the information on here for free, BROTHER.

[joelouis]

One tip I try to keep in the back of my mind every year as I handicap is that this is the year end goal for these horses, and in January these trainers mapped out a plan for them & who stayed closest to accomplishing it thus far. Another is milers normally do well in the sprint just because the speed is insane. No real milers in the sprint, the closest is Midnight Lute. Sadly I wasn't on him last year, but will be this year & the price should be better too. Another couple of horses that look interesting to me so far are Lord Admiral in the Dirt Mile (if he lands in the top 4, I'll be looking to cash a few dime supers:jump:)! US Ranger also looks interesting. He's stretching out should get a nice trip, hopefully right behind Daytona & Thorn Song. Any thought on Only Answer in the Turf Sprint? For someone as wonderful as Andre Fabre, this is the only horse he's bringing over here, so he has to think she has a shot. On paper this horse looks like an afterthought, but it just strikes me weird that this is the only horse in his barn he ships all the way over here.

I HAVE 3 WORDS FOR YOU ON ONLY ANSWER, SAVE YOUR MONEY.

[turfbar]

Overlays overlays overlays



Turfbar

[jonnielu]

Go for the prices.
This is the day(s) to make big money on modest investments.
Don't get sucked into hype horses.

Pay attention to horses for courses - one of the biggest scores of my life was on a turf horse who had previsouly won at Churchill - can't remember his name - a while back.

Hell, that could be up around $8.80, seems like you'd remember such a rare event.

jdl

[Tom]

Paid significantly more than $8.80....look it up.

[ghostyapper]

$55.40 to be exact

[jonnielu]

$55.40 to be exact

So then, that would make the B.C. just another batch of big purse horse races, where you have to consider that the money is on the table, and that could be why the "no-sense" horses are there. Expect the un-expected.

jdl

[Fingal]

The one time of year when I'll bet with a shotgun instead of a rifle. When else do you get the chance to get 10-1 on G 1 horses ? The money may spend the same as that won in July, but the opprotunities aren't.

It's Christmas, New Year's, 4th of July & all other holidays wrapped up in one day.:jump::cool:

[Tom]

Many of the big prices are absolutely predictable.

[GaryG]

I have no data to support this but the rail at SA looks like a real lliability in sprints with #2 also not so great.

[startngate]

My four tips:

1) Ignore the morning line. Note, I am not saying ignore the morning line favorite, just the line itself.
2) Don't let the current odds talk you off a horse you like.
3) Give the European horses more credit than they deserve at first glance.
4) Don't be afraid to bet a filly against the boys.

[how cliche]

Ignore everyone's voice but your own.

Should you have a strong opinion, bet it like you mean it.

Should you lack a strong opinion, pass it.

Elementary my dear Watson, elementary.

[OTM Al]

Box the Euros as a side bet if it isn't you initial one. Not a big amount of $, just as a saver. This applies to all races this year with the poly.

[JustRalph]

I have no data to support this but the rail at SA looks like a real lliability in sprints with #2 also not so great.


I have the data, you are right on......

[cnollfan]

The main difference to me about the BC is that very few horses are running that don't belong. The hype horses tend to be overbet as a result, not due to their own failings, but just because so many of the other horses can also win if things go well for them.

The Kentucky Derby is different. More horses run in the Derby that shouldn't be there than in the Breeders' Cup.

I rarely use the "all" button in day to day play, but in the BC, there is plenty of room for the "all" button in a slot on the tri or super, or pick 3 or pick 4. (You can't realistically afford to play "all" pick 6s unless you are past-posting the early winners.)

[cmoore]

My four tips:

1) Ignore the morning line. Note, I am not saying ignore the morning line favorite, just the line itself.
2) Don't let the current odds talk you off a horse you like.
3) Give the European horses more credit than they deserve at first glance.
4) Don't be afraid to bet a filly against the boys.

I already do the first two every day I bet.

[Gorgeous George]

good luck to all the euro horses tomoro we are going to conquer!!

Soldier of fortune and henrythenavigator are my bankers
Bushranger and sixties icon to run big races, also watch out for westphalia very powerfull horse!!