Book..."Speed to Spare"...

[LottaKash]

I just purchase a book written by Joe Cardello, called "Speed to Spare". I know this book has been kicking around for a good while, but I was interested in hearing someone's impressions(s) about it's content and usefulness.

I am for the most part an avid Harness Handicapper, and I use to a great extent, the the Trackmaster-Speed Ratings that are included with all of the past performances for all U.S. and Canadian tracks available nationwide. The TM-SR's, are quite similar in their power and usefulness when compared to the Beyer Speed Ratings. For me they are a great pointer in that they form a solid general baseline when comparing horses to each other in the overall speed dep't. I know they are not the be all and end all to finding the best(s) horses in a race, but they do have their place when used in conjunction with reliable pace-velocity ratings

I have become somewhat adept at using the TM-SR's when considering where a horse may be in his form-cycle, and this is primarily why I purchased this book, as it seemed to feature this area of handicapping, (using Beyer's and Form Cycles) of which, I believe you can never know too much about. This is why I was curious as to what others may have to say about this matter, and this book.

Hey for $10 bucks shipped from Amazon, What the heck..........

Thx ahead for any insights....

best,

[Pace Cap'n]

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5565&highlight=speed+to+spare (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5565&highlight=speed+to+spare)

[LottaKash]

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5565&highlight=speed+to+spare (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5565&highlight=speed+to+spare)

Thx P & C for the lead ...:ThmbUp: .........Funny, I queried the search function 2x, and it didn't turn up this thread, funny...

From what I had gathered from reading the posts concerning this book, I believe I made a good choice, as the the reviews and opinions seemed to be all positive.....Cool...

best,

[Light]

I got this book about a year ago based on the reviews here. I never finished it (like Pizzola's book). Got boring. The main thing that caught my attention about it was the horse's form cycle. Specifically a horse runs his top speed rating 3 back. Then bounces.Next race,recoups somewhat, comes up somewhere near that top speed fig. Now he's ready to run big again.

I've found that while this may be true in some cases,in most cases where the horse wins after running a good one 3 back,the pattern is not so neat as he says. This is a strong angle for longshots,but sorry, doesn't work that way in real life. I find many of these horses run a big race 3 back and the next 2 are worse and worse yet.Since they dont fit his pattern,they would not be candidates for a bet. So I feel he misrepresents reality here to come up with a "system".

One horse I did catch yesterday with this angle was 'The Shaughraun",($19 winner, 7th Belmont). This horse ran an 89 3 back.Bris numbers. Then an 85 and the last was a 79. Did not fit the authors profile of a horse that was cycling back to his good fig.In fact this type looks like he's going to run an even worse race since the figs have a progressive decline. Using common sense,I noted who the jock was for the 89 fig and it was the same jock as today. The last 2 did not have this jock on. No brainer that he had to be bet.

So why doesn't the author point this out? Why does he think things have to fit into his little molded pattern for a win?

I noticed that horses will cycle for a win from 3 back way before he did. When I first started playing(in the 80's),I use to follow horses just because I liked them. I knew their names.I really didn't need the form for my "pet" horses. I felt I could rely on them. Today,its just numbers.But those were the days.

One of my "pet" horses was a horse named Cast of Gold at GGF. Used to see him in person. Won for me. Then went off at a lukewarn price,ran out. Next out at a higher price,ran out. Now the public gave up on him and sent him off at 44-1 against strong claimers. I almost didn't bet him,but stuck with him the last minute and he rolled to a convincing 5 length victory. I'll never forget that. But the point is,his pattern was also irregular from his win 3 back and did not fit into the authors neatly portrayed pattern. This seemingly new angle by the author is nothing new. Everyone says "3rd of a layoff". There's also "3rd off a win".

[cnollfan]

I am not much for Beyer figs (or figs in general) these days in my handicapping, so Cardello's book was not one that I have read and re-read, but I thought it was good. The main thing I got from it was not so much a particular pattern or cycle, but simply that the handicapper should use some common sense when evaluating the figs. Horses with big recent figs achieved under optimal circumstances will be overbet when running under less than optimal circumstances. Horses that have figs good enough to win today's race buried in their form could be overlooked contenders, especially if there are reasons to expect an improved performance today.

[Tom]

It was the idea that counted, not as a system.

[dav4463]

I like the book. I still refer to it from time to time to refresh myself on recognizing those form cycles.

[LottaKash]

Thx all for you input,,, I bought the book read it twice...Definitely, not a system as mentioned before, but good reading nonetheless....It spurs the mind to further consider the patterns of Beyers that emerge, and possibly how to contend with them in the process....Good Racing "Brain Food"....I think....

best,