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DeanT
10-19-2008, 03:18 PM
Forgive me, I do not buy the form any longer, I just use my sheets (yes I see jcapper like her) ...... can someone tell me what made Just Livin a Dream worth a play at 5-2?

She was 15-1 ML and she took relentless money. The offshore guys at betfair were even caught unwares, which is rare. She opened at 14-1 there and then took a huge dive, with piles of cash on her.


I would just like some idea what people see in this horse and what their fair odds were. Hopefully with an absence of any redboarding if possible.

Thanks.
bettheoverlay
10-19-2008, 03:30 PM
She was 2nd beaten 1/2 length at same class and distance at Belmont, the 5/2 favorite in her last race. Strange M/L, maybe because of AE. 4/1 on my UPR line.
DeanT
10-19-2008, 03:32 PM
Thanks bet. That makes sense then.

She certainly won like a 6-5 shot.
Tom Barrister
10-19-2008, 03:52 PM
It was a bad morning line. The horse was one of the top three contenders in just about whatever method one would use.
dutchboy
10-19-2008, 04:03 PM
The horse was the top rated horse on the computer program I use and had an odds line of 3-1.
bettheoverlay
10-19-2008, 04:14 PM
An interesting dilemma for a line maker. The solid 2 was a firster who probably deserved 15/1. Had he made the entry 3/1, which was realistic for the 2b, and then the 2b scratched, the firster would have been left the m/l favorite. He must have anticipated the scratch. Do they announce a readjustment of the m/l on-track at Bel? I believe they do that in SCal.
the little guy
10-19-2008, 04:38 PM
You don't make MLs based on horses on the AEs. Had the 2b been in the body of the race obviously the ML would have been much lower. It's a tricky situation.
BombsAway Bob
10-19-2008, 04:52 PM
An interesting dilemma for a line maker. The solid 2 was a firster who probably deserved 15/1. Had he made the entry 3/1, which was realistic for the 2b, and then the 2b scratched, the firster would have been left the m/l favorite. He must have anticipated the scratch. Do they announce a readjustment of the m/l on-track at Bel? I believe they do that in SCal.
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