Old Question (Play for profit or chase the big tickets?)

[CamptownRaces.com]

I have a solid proven method for identifying longshot possibilities at tracks across the US.

The method I developed "Dutches" 2 horses.

Here's my dilemma...

I cash more tickets for an overall Longrun profit if I dutch my selections to place. Most pay between 7 to 10 in the middle. I just hate playing to place...

Today is a good example...

I had only 2 hits out of 5 races...

1 win and 1 place...

My Winner paid 21+ to win and 8.60 in the middle. My place hit paid 6.20 in the middle...

Today I lost money overall due to dutching to place... I would have only made $1 and change dutching to win, but instead I cashed two tickets instead of one and ended up losing $5.20 on those bets...

Now, over the longrun the place dutching has proven to be more consistently profitable than the win dutching wagers have been. Do I chase the bigger payoff and scratch my itch, or should I stick to what has proven to make money and bite the bullet on days like today??

[Lefty]

There's gonna be "bullet biting" days no matter what you do, so take the proven profit maker.

[aaron]

In the end it doesn't matter how you make money at the track.I know people who make money betting place and show parlays along with other bets they make.If you feel your horses will show a larger profit with place bets,then try some sort of parlay betting.If you could hook 2 plays in a place-show parlay you would probably show a very nice profit.You could make this bet and then do whatever you please as far as a win bet.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Thanks for the input... I think I'm going to stay with the place dutch... I have just over 2 years of records that say bet to place rather than the win by an easy 20% increase in the overall ROI.

Yesterday was just one of those days...

Glad to have a few places to vent and get some intelligent input...

Thanks again,

Charles:)

[Vigors]

...then just wipe your ass with your 2 year old records. You say
your records told you to make place bets...????
Well guess what, my records told me that the moon is made out of green cheese...what do you think..??
# 1. The real game isn't for gelding's...so look elsewhere for
your free advice...and the "lady's room".
#2. After 2 year's and your betting on paper....I remember
when BRIS had a comment section...which would let you
discuss...but keep people away from each other ( least
they share their $14 ALL-WAYS files )and I had a similar
discussion with "Little Joe" jackoff...he was telling this girl
that was new to racing, that it was a good practice to bet
on paper. Horse-shit then...more HORSE-SHIT NOW.
If you can borrow some testosterone, or something similar to "wavell's", egg's or nuts..then let me know and I'll respond....until then, stay close to mommy when you go in those big WAL-MART stores....

[GameTheory]

Geez,

Didn't realize the idea of betting on paper was "fightin' words" -- which, by the way, he never said he did.

He said he KEPT RECORDS -- is that only for "geldings" too? What a foolish post...

[Kentucky Bred]

Game Theory--I couldn't agree more. Personal attacks are useless here. They offer no value.

Camp--what could anyone say when your testing shows a significant increase in ROI when betting to place? Everyone would probably say, "take the higher ROI". Although I know you are a disciplined researcher, you need to take one more real good look at your profiles and results.

I am a longshot player. I play to win with carefully calculated one-way only exactas from my longshot pick to 4 or 5 others. Sat. night at Charlestown in the second race I hit an exacta that was shocking at least to me. One way from the #9 (Leo's Clever Trick) to #8 (Jake Jacoby). A $37.40 winner over a $33.20 place horse. It was literally 3 or 4 horses on the wire and I got incredibly lucky. I've been unlucky too. But the EXACTA paid $1266.20! I just sat there and stared at the screen after the prices went up. The #8 was my last horse to put in.

In my research, I've NEVER seen a situation where place pays more than win. Sure it is a bitch when the horse runs second and you've got it only to win. We've all experienced that. But overall when they win, you get paid big time. Also, I'm sure you understand the concept of breakage. Those betting to place have to pay the breakage at two levels as I understand things. Also, you do not know what your place horse will return because you do not know who is going to share the place pool. When your longshot comes in with a 3-5 shot. The favorite players love you because your betting "gave" them a much higher price on their logical horse. It makes no sense to bet to place on longshots. You can only lose money when you share the pools with lower odds horses. It could make sense to bet to place with low priced favorites because they may get the chance to share the pool with your horse.

Another concept you may want to look at is, if your horses run second a lot, use the exacta as a place bet. See what your backwheel price would be. I was shocked to realize after several months that those little one-way exactas had over 2X the ROI of the win bets.

But, if after all of that, your place bets return a higher ROI, than I guess you've got to go for the money.

Kentucky Bred

[hurrikane]

camp.
not sure I understand exactly what you are say.

Are you saying the win% on the place bet is higher but the ROI is lower? And is you question should you just stick to the lower win% on the win bet because the ROI is higher?

If that is the case IMHO you should maybe run 2 banks. I have this exact situation. I ran 2 banks and surprisingly the place is really just running so so. Look close at your records and see if maybe there are just a few large place pays that are making the difference. One thing for sure. Running a seperate bank on win and place will give you the real answer.

As for the idiot post above. Can't say much except..you can't fix stupid!

[tcat]

Why not front and back-wheel those longshots in an exacta (or even trifecta). Longshots finish 2d as well as finish 1st. There are some great payoffs when a longshot hits the place position.

In your data base, if you play the top 4 ML over and under your two longshots, would it improve your ROI?

[GameTheory]

If win & place are both profitable, why not play them both?


In my research, I *often* see long-term ROI higher with place & show if the selections are chalky. This doesn't happen with longshots.

The reason, besides any basic inefficiency between the win-place-show pools, which is slight at best, is that you're sharing the pool with the other winners with a place or show bet.

If you bet the favorite to place, the other horse you share the pool with (when you win) will always be higher odds, right? And therefore, your place payout goes up -- quite a bit if you share the pool with a real longshot.

If you bet a longshot to place, chances are you'll share the pool with a low-priced horse and your payoff will be low. (I'm using high & low as relative terms here -- what's low for a longshot might be high for a favorite.)

So chalk have their value increased in the place & show pools, and longshots have their value diminished. Bottom-line: it is often smart to bet chalk to place & show (if it is also a good, or at least break-even win proposition), and it is rarely smart to bet longshots to place unless you've got research telling you that your particular selections are an exception (as it might be if you bet lots of longshot closers, for instance, the are ITM very often but seldom win).

This is a very annoying fact, because longshots tend to place & show much more often than they win. But who wants to get paid $2.40 for a 15-1 shot to show? In many cases, the "exacta as place bet" mentioned above is profitable, but I've found it doesn't apply in all cases. It really depends on your selections -- certain types will either win or finish way back. I wouldn't be betting "need to lead" types too often to place & show, for instance. Other types tend to come in second a lot, but rarely win.

So keep making those records and pay attention to what they tell you!