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beertapper
10-16-2008, 10:58 PM
Hi,

Last year I think swetyejohn was gracious enough to post Nick Mordin's thoughts on the BC. It was great to hear his opinions.... Any chance we will see a similar article this year ?

I'd buy the newspaper, but its only in the UK I think...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/printthread.php?t=40750

robert99
10-18-2008, 02:44 PM
Articles will not be published in UK until Wednesday next.
Could email Nick at NickMordinWeb@aol.com or try
weekender@racingpost.co.uk

Tom
10-18-2008, 05:01 PM
Nick will part of the webinar by Equicom Friday.
(It ain't free!)

Premier Turf Club
10-18-2008, 06:12 PM
Nick's euro figures are the best, and he's a great guy to boot. It would be well worth PA members listening in on the Equiform seminar.

beertapper
10-19-2008, 03:33 AM
thanks.. will try contacting Nick

is there a link to the webinar ?

lsosa54
10-19-2008, 09:44 AM
thanks.. will try contacting Nick

is there a link to the webinar ?


http://www.equiform.com/Index/BC08.htm

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:19 PM
Hi everyone,

Nick sent me his analysis of the Breeders' Cup, and gave me permission to post this on paceadvantage. It's too big to post in one message, so I'll split it into several parts. What follows is the part one...



RECORD EURO ENTRY WON’T NECESSARILY MEAN RECORD SUCCESS

This year a record 35 European runners are set to line up for the Breeders’ Cup meeting. The cause is undoubtedly the new synthetic surface which most people believe will suit European turf runners far better than dirt.

I think this is a correct assumption. But I’m wary of saying that the European runners are going to dominate the meeting. In my opinion several of the visitors are aiming for the wrong races while other contests that could easily have gone Europe’s way are absent of serious foreign competition.

I’m convinced that Goldikova would have been a certainty in the Filly & Mare Turf and that Raven’s Pass would have been very hard to beat in the Mile. I don’t believe their chosen targets will play to their strengths.

I’m also dreadfully disappointed to see no European entries in the Sprint or the Ladies Classic.

That said, it does look clear that the synthetic surface gives us a major chance of winning the biggest Breeders’ Cup race, the Classic, for only the second time. My feeling is that Henrythenavigator is the one to beat there.

My best bet though has to be an American runner. Namely Kip Deville in the Mile. He won the race last year, is in even better form right now and has proven almost unstoppable over a mile.

Whatever horses you pick I suggest you bet any American runner you fancy ante-post with a British or Irish bookie and take US tote odds about your European pick. The results show that everyone under-estimates the chances of foreign runners. So this strategy is the way to obtain the best odds.











BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

INDIAN BLESSING 44

LADY SPRINTER 42

INDYANNE 41

DREAM RUSH 39

MAGNIFICIENCE 39

VENTURA 39

ZAFTIG 38

JAZZY 37

MIRACULOUS MISS 37

DEAREST TRICKSKI 36

INTANGAROO 36

TIZ ELEMENTAL 36

TIZZY’S TUNE 35

LA TEE 34





DEAREST TRICKSKI

Claimed three times out of cheap claiming races last year but has been able to use her early speed to win ten of her last twelve starts, including a G3, a G2 and a G1. However she got beat the only time she was headed early and that looks likely to happen again here.



DREAM RUSH

Another speedball that has led at the first call in her last nine starts. She tired into fifth when pressed too hard for the lead in this race last year. And she ran below form on her first AW try last time.

INDIAN BLESSING

Last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies winner has never lost a sprint in five tries. She’ll be a warm order here as local speed ratings put her well ahead of her rivals. The concern is that her best performance by far came over six furlongs. When she ran over this course and distance in a G2 in January she looked set to cruise home when well clear entering the straight. But she tired badly and was almost legless at the finish, just holding on in a photo. Will she last home at the furious pace that’s likely here?



INDYANNE

Yet another ‘need to lead’ front runner that’s won five of six starts and never been headed early. She tired late when caught close home in a G3 two runs back and was tiring late again when just holding on in a another G3 last time. Both those races were 6f and she goes 7f for the first time here. With all the speed lined up I don’t like her chances of staying.



INTANGAROO

Intangaroo’s ultra late running style is normally better suited to dirt, a surface where she’s won two out of two (both G1’s). But she showed that she can be equally effective on the AW when there’s a searching early pace when taking a G1 over this course and distance in February. The early pace here looks set to be even stronger, so she looks a key player.



JAZZY

Showed smart form in South Africa and won a G2 when switched to America. But her only place in her last six starts came on yielding turf. Yet to win beyond 6f and seems out of form.

LA TEE

Won a maiden at a couple of minor Conditons races but been beaten all eight times she’s tried better company. The slowest horse in the race on the clock.

LADY SPRINTER

Argentina’s Champion sprinter this filly has never been headed while winning all eight of her starts on dirt. However she’s never run beyond five furlongs, gone around a turn or tried an AW surface. The fact that she lost her action when eighth in her only turf start does not bode well for her chances on this surface that favours turf runners. Has clocked terrific times but looks set to simply be one of many that tire after dueling for the leader here.

MAGNIFICIENCE

Tall, rangy filly that looks built for longer. Habitually comes from far back and that’s not normally a good tactic on this surface. But the likely searching early pace looks set to help her massively. Highly regarded, lightly raced filly that won a G3 on her second start and looks to have been trained with this race in mind.

MIRACULOUS MISS

Lost 12 in a row and unplaced on her only AW start. She has though reached the first four in the last 6 G1 races she’s run in and the likely strong pace will help this deep closer.

TIZ ELEMENTAL

Has built up a good record in restricted stakes and state bred races, and did manage a narrow win in a weak G3. But her form and speed ratings suggest she’s not up to this level.

TIZZY’S TUNE

Took five runs to break her maiden. Won a restricted stakes last time but the clock and the form book says she’s not this class.

VENTURA

Produced an amazing burst of speed to win a Listed race on Kempton’s Polytrack in a time that would win G1’s for fillies on her last UK start. Has gone o to win a G1 in America and would have won all seven times she’s run on firm turf or a synthetic surface since her losing racecourse debut but for a couple of unlucky photo finish losses.

Second to males on unsuitable yielding ground in the G1 Woodbine Mile last time. Her late running style should suit this race perfectly. Looks a major contender.

ZAFTIG

Good-bodied, strong finishing filly. Comfortably outstayed Indian Blessing to win the G1 Acorn over a mile last time. Needs to improve on that to take this on the clock. Perfectly possible. But this is the first AW start for a filly that looks built like an out and out dirt runner to my eye.



SUMMARY

The early pace here looks certain to be furious. So surely a strong finisher will win it. That means Psalm, Ventura, Magnificience or Intangaroo.

VENTURA looks the classiest and is hugely overpriced at 9-1 with William Hill. But I can’t resist the big odds offered by the bookies for MAGNIFICIENCE and the monstrous price PSALM is likely to be on the US Tote. I say split your bet between the three.





BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

APRIL PRIDE 33

HEART SHAPED 32

LARAGH 32

EMMY DARLING 30

SAUCEY EVENING 29

C KARMA 28

RENDA 28

CONSEQUENCE 27

MARAM 27

BEYOND OUR REACH 26

FREEDOM RINGS 26

SUGAR MOM 26



APRIL PRIDE

Built and bred for a mile and a quarter plus this filly finally got a chance to run beyond 6f last time when staying on well to be third to the smart Fantasia in a 7f G3 last time. The extra furlong will help and she clearly has a shot.



BEYOND OUR REACH

This maidens big claim to fame is that she finished third to Again in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. However the slow pace and very soft ground make me suspicious of that form, especially as the first two drew away so quickly when the real race began. Her two other runs are a third in an ordinary maiden and a pretty distant sixth in the G1 Cheveley Park. She’s never run any sort of a time.







C KARMA

Proved she stays this far and acts on turf with a win in a Canadian G3 last time. But her speed ratings are so far behind the best here I find it hard to see her winning.



CONSEQUENCE

Rangy, good looking filly that’s built for ten furlongs plus. Won a 5.ft turf maiden on her debut then looked rather unlucky when compromised by a sprint finish and having to switch for a late run in a turf G3 over 8.5f. She finished best there and lost by only half a length to Maram and Freedom Rings who got first run.



EMMY DARLING

Won a 6f Polytrack stakes in fair time. But tired to get get over ten lengths when stepeed up to 7f for the G1 Del Mar Debutante. Now she goes a mile and tackles turf for the first time.





FREEDOM RINGS

Still a maiden after three runs, got a dream run down the inside when losing an 8.5f G3 to Maram last time. Moderate looking filly that’s probably not good enough.



HEART SHAPED

Tall, scopey, rangy filly with a long stride that’s built and bred for over a mile but has unaccountably been kept to 5f and 6f. Finished well to take fifth in the G1 Cheveley Park and now finally goes the kind of distance she’s been crying out for. The main worry is the tight course, but she does look very interesting.



LARAGH

Tall, long striding filly set a strong pace to romp home in a stakes race over 8.5f on turf at Keeneland, clocking much the best time of the US runners. She failed to handle soft ground before that and found 5f too short on her debut but was a good winner of a 7f Polytrack maiden in her other start. Will probably be a warm favourite and clearly has a big chance



MARAM

Quite good bodied filly. Won a high priced claimer on her debut and followed up by winning a slow run 8.5f G3 with a big wide move on the turn from Freeedom Rings and Consequence. Needs to do more to take this but not impossible.



RENDA

This is a mature, good-bodied filly with a long stride that’s improved markedly when stepped up to longer trips to cruise home in two minor stakes. They were both on dirt but one was scheduled for turf till a downpour. Renda’s dam was a decent turf performer and her stride pattern and physique indicate she’ll take to the surface. She’s yet to run fast but that’s more due to slow opposition than her own failing. I see her running a big race here.



SUGAR MOM

Medium-sized filly that finally won at the fourth attempt in a maiden claiming race. Romped by twelve lengths in an optional claimer next time before coming from far back off a strong pace to get up late in a minor Polytrack stakes race. Doesn’t look up to this class.



SUMMARY

You can make some sort of a case for a lot of horses here. But the most likely winner looks to be the favourite LARAGH who is wildly over-priced at 8-1 with William Hill.









BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

PURSUIT OF GLORY 34

DOREMIFASOLLATIDO 32

BE SMART 30

SKY DIVA 30

STARDOM BOUND 30

C. S. SILK 28

PERSISTENTLY 28

PALACIO DE AMOR 27

EVITA ARGENTINA 26

BLACK MAGIC MAMA 26

DAVE’S REVENGE 23







BE SMART

Tall, mature, strong, deep-chested, rangy filly with a big stride that’s built and bred for longer trips. She showed far more pace than any horse in this line up when setting a scorching gallop to score in decent time over 5.5f on dirt at Saratoga first time. She then got involved in four way duel for the lead and was asked to kick on a long way out when tiring late to finish second in the G1 Aclibiades on Polytrack. Those tactics are suicidal on Polytrack and I’m sure she can turn that form around if ridden with more restraint here. Gives trainer D Wayne Lukas a real chance of winning this race for the sixth time.



BLACK MAGIC MAMA

Made a big move on the home turn to get into contention in the G1 Oak Leaf over this course and distance. But Stardom Bound simply ran away from her by nearly six lengths. Still a maiden and that looks unlikely to change here.



C. S. SILK

The only winner of the G3 Arlington Lassie to win this was Eliza who took the Chicago race by a record twelve lengths. C.S. Silk took this year’s renewal comfortably by six, but speed ratings suggest she’ll have trouble winning here.



DAVE’S REVENGE

Deep chested, strong, good bodied sort that came from about 20 lengths back in mile Polytrack maiden where the leaders went too fast and the pace collapsed, leading to a slow final time. Hard to assess off that single run.



DOREMIFASOLLATIDO

This commentator’s nightmare looked tired at finish when winning 7f G2 in fair time. Now tries to go much longer and tackle the AW for the first time while bidding to become the first Breeders’ Cup winner bred in New York.

EVITA ARGENTINA

Came from far back to win a maiden and then a G3 over 5f and 6.5f on her first two. Then took a couple of bumps when trying the same move in the G1 Del Mar Debutante where she ran fourth. Finished strong and would have been second in a few more strides. Built for a mile plus and certainly runs that way. Might just be good enough.



PALACIO DE AMOR

Made the running when second in G1 Del Mar Debutante and Oak Leaf. But Stardom Bound simply ran away from her both times to win by a big margin. Hard to see why she should turn that form around.

PERSISTENTLY

Mature, good looking filly that’s built for longer than a mile. Outpaced then stayed on from far back to take distant second to Sky Diva in G1 Frizette. But her sire and dam were dirt horses and she looks and runs like one, and this is her first start on the AW.



PURSUIT OF GLORY

This muscular, good looking filly is clearly built and bred for a mile plus. She won on the Polytrack in fast time at Dundalk before finishing a close third in the G1 Cheveley Park. She got herself some ways behind there and had to weave in and out to find a run but picked up best of all when clear to finish third. She was moving really strongly at the finish and will obviously improve for the step up in trip here. Looks a big player.

.

SKY DIVA

Won the G1 Frizette comfortably on dirt after winning her sole previous start on dirt. Her half sister ran second in a G1 on the AW, so she’ll probably adapt to this surface. Mature sort that might just do it.



STARDOM BOUND

Came from far back to win 7f G1 Del Mar Debutante and G1 Oak Leaf over this course and distance comfortably by wide margins. This long striding grey filly is exciting to watch and was most impressive last time. The Oak Leaf winner has won this race two of the last three times it’s been run in California. A deserving favourite.



VAN LEAR ROSE

Canadian filly won a G3 narrowly on Woodbine’s Polytrack last time.Took four runs to break her maiden and doesn’t look fast enough.

SUMMARY

Stardom Bound will be a hot favourite here and may win. But I much prefer taking big prices about BE SMART and PURSUIT OF GLORY.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:21 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

HALFWAY TO HEAVEN 39

MAURALAKANA 39

WAIT A WHILE 39

FOLK OPERA 38

FOREVER TOGETHER 38

VISIT 37

DYNAFORCE 37

SEALY HILL 36

VACARE 36

PURE CLAN 35



COMMUNIQUE

Strong finishing filly that clearly stays well. The only win she’s scored when she hasn’t had a decent pace to run at was over a mile and a half. Got beat by Mauralakana and Dynaforce in her last two and has yet to win a G1 or G2 in four tries. The likely slow pace here won’t help her.



DYNAFORCE

This filly’s four wins have all been in slow run races on yielding or softer ground where she’s led or sat just off the lead then sprinted for home. She did this last time to take the G1 Flower Bowl over this distance from Mauralakana (who needs faster going). And she showed she fan act on firm ground when just failing to hold the same filly on her US debut. Should get the race run her way unless she and Folk Opera take each other on.



FOLK OPERA

Can stay longer trips when given a soft lead but seems best at this trip of ten furlongs over which she's unbeaten in four tries. Beat the high class German filly Fair Breeze over the distance in French G2 three runs back before not lasting the 12 furlongs off a very strong pace in the Vermeille. Won Canadian G1 when setting a crawl of a pace last time. If she can avoid being pressed too hard for the lead by Dynaforce here she has a real shot.





FOREVER TOGETHER

This half sister to three sprint winners won her first three starts over 6f and 7f. But exaggerated hold up tactics enabled her to come from out of the clouds to win the 9f G1 Diana. The way she flattened out towards the end of the G2 Canadian over the same trip on softer ground suggests she’s going to have trouble lasting the extra furlong here.



HALFWAY TO HEAVEN

Lost her debut in a photo but has won all four times she’s raced on good to firm or faster ground since. Won the Irish 1000 Guineas, the Nassau and Falmouth Stakes in sprint finishes off a slow early pace. So she should be suited to the way this race is most likely to be run. The concern would be that if they went a bit too fast she’d have trouble lasting home.



MAURALAKANA

Fast finishing former French filly has improved to win all five times she's run less than a mile and a half for new trainer Cristophe Clement on what the clock says was good or faster ground. Bids to become first winner of G1 Beverley D to ever reach the first three in this race. And it’s worrying that her worst ever run came the only time she ran on this unusual downhill turf course.

PURE CLAN

Beat a weak bunch of three year olds in slow time in the American Oaks over this trip. But she’s lost all three times she’s faced a decent rival and has yet to clock a good time. This is her first time against older rivals and I think she’ll be outrun.



SEALY HILL

Canadian horse of the year in 2007. She invariably moves up cruising but hates being put under pressure, so she's best beating up on lower class rivals in small fields. So far she's won seven of nine in G3 or lower class but lost all eight times she's run in G1 and G2 events. Has any amount of ability and could easily place here.



VACARE

Unbeaten as a three year old. But has lost all four times she’s tackled the much stronger opposition to be found in US G1’s for older fillies. She’s finished behind every one of today’s rivals all four times she’s faced them in the last two years. Looks a bit outclassed.





VISIT

Won the G3 Princess Margaret Stakes over 6f at two but is built and bred for longer. Was gaining at the finish off a slow pace when a close third to Halfway To Heaven in the G1 Falmouth Stakes. Bids to emulate offspring of her dam’s sister Banks Hill in jumping from a mile to 10f to win this race. I give her a real shot.



WAIT A WHILE

Triple G1 winner has scored nine of the ten times she’s run longer than a mile and less than 11f on turf. She’s won all three times she’s tried this unusual course and won the G1 Yellow Ribbon over course and distance for the second time a few weeks back, always looking in control. Clearly sets the standard here.



SUMMARY

This is the most competitive race of the meeting and will probably produce a bunch finish. VISIT looks set to start at much bigger odds than she should on the US tote and looks the best value choice.



BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES CLASSIC



ZENYATTA 42

CARRIAGE TRAIL 40

GINGER PUNCH 40

COCOA BEACH 39

HYSTERICALADY 38

MUSIC NOTE 38

BEAR NOW 37

SANTA TERESITA 35





BEAR NOW

Got beat over 20 lengths in this race last year, possibly because she disliked the muddly track. Has won 9 out of 19 but never beaten a big name rival or run a decent time. Looks a bit outclassed.



CARRIAGE TRAIL

Good looking, rangy filly has won four of the five times she’s run beyond a mile on the AW or firm turf. Her sole loss was a one length second to the very smart Wait A While. She romped home well clear in fast time despite drifting out badly to win the G1 Spinster on Keeneland’s Polytrack last time. If Zenyatta runs below form she’s the one most likely to benefit.



COCOA BEACH

Beat last year’s winner of this race Ginger Punch fair and square in the Grade 1 Beldame. Indeed I got the feeling that if her jockey hadn't been so keen on keeping his mount balanced on what was a slippery wet surface Cocoa Beach would have won by a wider margin.

Cocoa Beach has grown and strengthened during her lay-off according to Saeed bin Suroor. Godolphin had to pay a big supplementary entry fee to get her into this race. But I think it's worth it as she's proven on both turf and dirt so looks a good bet to handle the Pro-Ride surface. And only one filly has ever beaten her





GINGER PUNCH

Six time G1 winner took this race on dirt last year but is yet to prove she can show the same level of form on a synthetic surface. Beaten narrowly but a shade comfortably by Cocoa Beach last time and hammered eight lengths by the brilliant Zenyatta the only time she previously ran west of Kentucky. Suspicious that her trainer is based in California but has kept her away from here for all her 21 lifetime starts. Looks like he thinks she can’t handle the synthetic surfaces the major West Coast tracks now race on exclusively.



HYSTERICALADY

Has won 11 of 16 on dirt but her trailblazing style is not best suited to AW surfaces. She’s lost all five times she’s run on them and been beaten in her last six G1 tries. Speed ratings suggest she’d be up against it here even if the race was on dirt.



MUSIC NOTE

Tall, deep-chested, rangy filly that looks built for ten furlongs plus. Ran away with the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks over that distnace. But was compromised by a slow early pace when just failing to get up to beat the smart Proud Spell in the G1 Alabama over the same trip. That was the only loss this triple G1 winner has suffered in six starts beyond sprint trips. Yet to try anything but dirt, but is a half sister to the French 1000 Guineas winner Musical Chimes, so looks likely to act on this surface. The concern is whether she’ll get done for speed at the finish.



SANTA TERESITA

Yet to win a Graded stakes and has been horribly outpaced by Zenyatta in two of her last three runs. The slowest horse in the race on speed ratings.

ZENYATTA

Won the G1 Lady’s Secret over this course last time with a tremendous burst of speed. She took just 28.5 seconds to run the last two and a half furlongs, that's 11.4 seconds per furlong.

Zenyatta has now won all eight of her starts, seven on synthetic surfaces. She's a good sized, classy looking filly with a good stride on her. She’s one of the best American fillies of recent years and deserves to be a short price for this.

SUMMARY

It’s hard to see ZENYATTA getting beat here. But I can’t take odds on in a Championship race. I think the value lies in exactas betting CARRIAGE TRAIL and COCOA BEACH to finish second to Zenyatta.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:22 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON



MUHANNAK 38

DELIGHTFUL KISS 38

BIG BOOSTER 36

SIXTIES ICON 36

ZAPPA 36

CEDAR MOUNTAIN 35

CHURCH SERVICE 35

ADD HEAT 34

BOOYAH 32



ADD HEAT

His only win in his last 26 starts came in an optional claimer.And his other two wins came in a maiden and another optional claimer restricted to horses bred in California, Add in his low speed ratings and its hard to take him seriously here.

BIG BOOSTER

Came from last to win America’s longest Graded stakes, the 1m 6f San Juan Capistrano Handicap in April. Did the same to take a 1m 5f stakes race on the AW next time. Those are the two longest races he’s contested and it was noticeable that he flashed his tail in the closing stages of his latest win and looked a tricky ride in both. It looks like he’s happiest attacking tiring leaders at marathon trips on the bridle. He’s lost all twenty stakes races he’s contested over 12f or less.

BOOYAH

Won a minor dirt stakes race at lowly Fairplex last time. But has been beaten in three low level claiming races in recent starts and owns very low speed ratings.







CEDAR MOUNTAIN

Only won a Southwell maiden in five tries for John Gosden. But has benefited from the weak competition to be found in long distance turf races in America, winning an optional claimer over this trip and following up in a minor stakes race. Second in a weak G2 after that and local speed ratings indicate he has not improved on his UK form.



CHURCH SERVICE

Claimed for $50,000 after winning over this course in January and won a weak G3 uin Texas for his new connections recently. Doesn’t look up to this grade.

DELIGHTFUL KISS

Unbeaten in two G3 races since switching to the AW in his last two starts, coming wide with a long late run in each of them to score. The first of those wins was over this distance and he ended up winning a shade comfortably there. Looks the best of the local runners.



MUHANNAK

Has won six of the eight times he’s run beyond a mile on a tight course on firm turf or the AW. He would have won his other two but for running green in one and getting caught in a pocket just as the sprint finish began in the other.

Won a Dundalk Listed race on Polytrack in fast time on his latest start and looks a big player here.

SIXTIES ICON

It’s a smart move running Sixties Icon here as he excels off the slow pace which normally prevails in US races over this long a distance. He can produce a tremendous burst of finishing speed off a slow pace. In fact only one horse has ever finished in front of him in nine races that my speed ratings indicate were slow run. This was the very smart Getaway. He’s not won in seven more strongly run races. His liking for the tight turns of Goodwood suggests he should handle this course.

ZAPPA

Has been with ten different trainers thanks to being a very popular claim when he ran in claiming races. Has done much better since California switched to AW racing, taking a G2 over this course in January. Stole a minor stakes race from the front over this trip three runs back, sprinting for home after being allowed to slip the field. Not impossible but speed ratings suggest he’s a bit behind the best here.



SUMMARY

The Europeans will probably dominate this. Sixties Icon is the obvious choice but offers little value. I prefer MUHANNAK who looks set to start at an enormous price on the US Tote.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

FLEETING SPIRIT 43

DIABOLICAL 41

GET FUNKY 38

MR NIGHTLINGER 38

IDIOT PROOF 37

ONLY ANSWER 37

SALUTE THE COUNT 37

DESERT CODE 36

HEROS REWARD 36

CALIFORNIA FLAG 35

ONE UNION 35

ROUSE THE CAT 35

STORM TREASURE 35

TRUE TO TRADITION 35





CALIFORNIA FLAG

Won only one of his first seven starts but improved in turf sprints, winning the last three times he’s gone less than 7f on turf. Won a G3 over this unusual course and distance last time where, as usual, he made all the running at a scorching pace. The concern is that he will fold if he’s taken on up front which seems very likely.

DIABOLICAL

Has run well in a strong of top European sprints, running almost as fast as he did in America. This race is nothing like as strong as those he’s been contesting. And it could well be he’s better around a turn than on the straight courses he’s tried in Europe. Big chance.

FLEETING SPIRIT

Broke Haydock’s five furlong record by over a second when beating subsequent G1 winner Borderlescott two lengths on her seasonal debut. Earned one of the biggest speed ratings I’ve given a filly in years that day. She went well in the G1 Kings Stand and Abbaye on her other two starts this year. But there are obvious concerns. She’s never won beyond 5f or run around a turn. And she’s best off a break which she hasn’t had here. Her habit of starting slow would be lethal to her chances in America too because the horses break a lot quicker than in Britain.

GET FUNKY

Beaten three lengths into second by California Flag over this course and distance last time. But he’d run faster than that one before while winning all six of his sprint starts. Could be he lost last time because he had to run faster early than he ever has before. Might well have needed the run off a six week break while being trained to peak for this big prize too. Very interesting.

HEROS REWARD

Won 9 of 18 turf starts including a G2 and G3. But he’s finished far back all three times he’s gone beyond 6f and never earned a good speed rating.

IDIOT PROOF

Second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Dubai Golden Shaheen on dirt. And won the G1 Ancient Title on the AW course here. But he tired rather badly both times he went beyond 6f and got beat by Get Funky in his sole turf start.

MR NIGHTLINGER

Has made all the running at a strong pace to win five turf sprints in a row, including two G3‘s and a valuable stakes race last time. He’s earned good speed ratings too. The concern is that his unbeaten run in turf sprints has been restricted to races of less than 6f. He did win a minor race over a mile on dirt early in his career. But he got away with setting the slowest early pace he’s ever run in 18 starts to clock a slow final time there. He’s lost the five times he’s had to go faster early on in races beyond 6f, including in one 6.5f race where he faded badly to run unplaced.

ONE UNION

Low speed ratings suggest why he’s only won once in his last ten starts. Beaten over 3 lengths into third by California Flag over this course and distance last time.

ONLY ANSWER

When the world’s most successful trainers starts just a single horse at the world’s biggest race meeting it pays to give that horse very careful attention. This filly won her first three starts at trips short of 7f and bounced back to her best to win a 5f G3 last time where she was finishing strongly. Her dam won a 6.5f G1 on turf, and I suspect this is her best trip too. Blew home by three lengths in a hot maiden from a bunch of pattern class rivals the only time she tried a turn too. Very interesting.



ROUSE THE CAT

Has earned low speed ratings while winning seven minor races at 4f to 5.5f. Doesn’t look good enough even if he stays.



SALUTE THE COUNT

8YO was claimed after running fourth in a claiming race in December. Won for the first time in seven tries since when taking a minor stakes on latest outing. Doesn’t look fast enough.





TRUE TO TRADITION

Won a weak G2 in Canada last time and has been mopping up at minor league courses. But he’s lost all nine times he’s run outside of claiming company at major US courses.

SUMMARY

DIABOLICAL looks the most likely winner here and seems over-priced at 7-1 with Coral. But I like the idea of having a saver on GET FUNKY at 14-1 with the same term and taking the likely huge US tote odds about ONLY ANSWER as well.





BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

MY PAL CHARLIE 41

SURF CAT 40

LEWIS MICHAEL 39

REBELLION 39

FIRST DEFENCE 38

WELL ARMED 38

PYRO 37

ALBERTUS MAXIMUS 36

JONESBORO 36

SLEW’S TIZNOW 36

TWO STEP SALSA 36

MAST TRACK 35



ALBERTUS MAXIMUS

Trainer feels he’s best at mile or 8.5f. Also seems to excel in big fields. He’s won all three times he’s run in fields of 10 or more over 8f or 8.5f, including when lowering Del Mar’s course for this trip on his first start for his new trainer two runs back. Third in G1 Goodwood over 9f last time where exaggerated hold up tactics were employed. Will probably be closer to the pace over this shorter trip and looks to have a real shot.



FIRST DEFENCE

Made all against five outclassed rivals at a moderate early pace to win over 8.5f last year but best form has been in sprints. Has yet to try an AW surface.

JONESBORO

6YO has won 11 of 33 starts, his wins all coming at minor courses. The fact that his worst ever run came on his sole try on turf does not bode well for his AW debut here.

LEWIS MICHAEL

Has won three of the last four times he’s run on AW tracks, his sole loss being a close fourth in the G1 Goodwood. Was rather impressive when winning a G2 by nearly three lengths on Del Mar’s Polytrack last time. Obvious chance.





MAST TRACK

Showed that it is possible to steal a good race from the front on a synthetic surface when winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup three runs back over ten furlongs. He was allowed to amble along in a clear, uncontested lead that day. And his rivals never really had a chance to catch him as he was able to sprint the last three furlongs he’d gone so slow. He ended up winning by over two lengths from Go Between and Well Armed.

Last time out Mast Track was made to run two and a half seconds quicker in the first six furlongs and ended up tiring to finish eighth despite the distance being a furlong less

Mast Track won over six and a half furlongs earlier this season and his Hollywood Gold Cup success stands as his only victory beyond a mile. Basically he’s a sprinter that can steal longer races from the front when he’s allowed to get away with an easy lead.

Add up the Cary’s two pace ratings in his shorts for all his starts and you’ll see that they’ve added up to 123 or less at a mile and a quarter or 136 or less four times in recent starts. Mast Track would have won all those four times but for one half length loss. He’s tired and been beaten the last four times he’s been made to go quicker, finishing out of the first four three of those four times.

Pretty much every horse in this line up has shown good early speed, and six of them habitually go for the lead or at least chase it. One, Two Step Salsa, has never in his entire career gone as slow as Mast Track likes. So I say he’s going to be made to go off too fast to stay.

Then of course there’s that quarter crack. After seeing that dreadful picture of Big Brown’s hoof splintered and smashed I don’t think many people are going to keep on buying the standard line from trainers you so often that there’s no risk running a horse with a quarter crack and that it won’t affect them. It takes nine months for a hoof to re-grow. You’ve got to rest the horse for those nine months, not squirt some superglue into the crack and stick a patch on and hope it’ll hold together.



MY PAL CHARLIE

3YO improved markedly off a break to win Super Derby over 9f last time, running faster than any of today’s rivals ever has. He was finishing really strongly that day and looks a good prospect to get 10f. Instead he cuts back to a mile and tries an AW surface for the first time. His sibling Bwana Bull was a G3 winner on dirt but ran unplaced in two minor races on the AW and turf. Major shot if adapting to surface and shorter distance - but that’s a big if.

PYRO

Earlier this season I predicted that Pyro would run a clunker on Polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. My reasoning was he is a one run closer that comes from much too far back to be effective on a synthetic surface. You can gain lots of ground on dirt when the leaders are running the final furlong in 13 seconds or slower. But on a synthetic surface it’s tough to gain the kind of ground Pyro always attempts as the leaders typically run the final furlong in around 12 seconds.

Sure enough Pyro finished tenth in the Blue Grass, turning in his worst lifetime performance. His trainer, Steve Asmussen blamed the synthetic surface for the bad run and has kept him to dirt ever since. Now though he’s running Pyro back on a synthetic surface against much the toughest opposition he’s faced in his life.

Pyro just doesn’t seem to have progressed from two to three. He’s earning the same level of speed ratings now as he did as a juvenile. And that puts him half a dozen lengths plus behind many of the rivals he faces here.

I guess there’s a remote possibility that there’ll be a kamikaze early pace which will somehow pull Pyro into this race. But realistically on this surface against this level of opposition he is very hard to fancy.



REBELLION

Ex Mark Johnston horse has improved since moving to America, winning five of the last eight times he’s run less than a mile. The trouble is this is a mile and he’s never won over this trip and run unplaced the last two times he’s tried.



SURF CAT

Would have won the last eight times he’s run 9f or less on dirt if one photo finish had gone the other way. But his only two successes in ten tries on AW tracks have been when the early pace has been strong enough to prevent the normal sprint finish. Hard to rely on that happening here.

TWO STEP SALSA

Has won four out of five on the AW, including two G3 races. But they were all against three year olds and in rather slow time. He looks up against it on his first try against his elders.

WELL ARMED

Would probably have won all seven of his AW starts beyond sprint trips instead of losing two narrowly if he’d only learned to settle better. Finally did so last time when settling in third instead of trailblazing before surging through up the straight to win the G1 Goodwood over 9f rather impressively.





SLEW’S TIZNOW

Lightly raced 3YO. Second in a weak G1 at two, and won sole start this year - a minor stakes race over a mile on Del Mar’s Polytrack. Needs to improve on that to feature here. But he’s a good-bodied, muscular, classy looking sort that scored with a fair bit in reserve there. Might just be good enough.



SUMMARY

There are possibilities about several here. But the obvious two look to be Well Armed and LEWIS MICHAEL. Lewis Michael has slightly better speed ratings and won really well last time. He looks the right play at much better odds.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:28 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP MILE



AWESOME GEM 42

US RANGER 42

GOLDIKOVA 41

KIP DEVILLE 40

BOLD CHIEFTAIN 39

DAYTONA 39

LORD ADMIRAL 39

PRECIOUS KITTEN 39

THORN SONG 39

VENTURA 39

WHATSTHESCRIPT 39

SHAKIS 38

WAR MONGER 38



BOLD CHIEFTAIN

If a couple of close finishes had gone the other way Bold Chieftain would have won eleven of the last twelve times he’s run outside of Graded stakes class. But he’s lost all six Graded stakes that he’s contested. And the three biggest prizes he’s won were all in races restricted to California breds. In addition he has yet to win a race outside of a minor track in five tries that wasn’t restricted to California breds.

Bold Chieftain is a big-bodied, very strong sort that doesn’t seem to possess a great turn of foot. He has a smart record around a mile but I just don’t think he’s quite good enough to take this.

DAYTONA

Daytona’s trainer has expressed concerns that this natural front runner will be pressed to go too fast early on here, just as he was on his last two starts when sixth and fourth behind Whatsthescript. He won the G1 Shoemaker Mile and a G2 over the same trip against fields of seven and six in his two runs before that. But he convinced his trainer in his last workout where he pulled hard when his rider tried to alter his normal exuberant style that he’ll have to allow him to bowl along here. Looks set to go too fast in this big field.



GOLDIKOVA

A good-bodied, muscular strong, classy looking filly Goldikova is clearly built and bred for middle distances. Indeed she ran a good third in the French Oaks in fast time over 10.5f. She got going too late when second in a slowly run Conditions race over a mile on her seasonal debut. But she’s been able to win over a mile in her last three starts thanks to pacemakers who have ensured a scorching early pace and yielding ground which has put the emphasis on stamina.

Goldikova is a very smart filly. But a mile around this seven furlong oval on firm ground with no pacemaker looks a dreadful idea to me. She would have been a cert in the Filly & Mare Turf. Here I’m convinced the race will provide nothing like a sufficient stamina test for her.



KIP DEVILLE

Broke his maiden over six furlongs but has subsequently proved a one mile specialist. He doesn’t seem to quite last the distance around the big, galloping ‘European-style’ twelve furlong oval at Woodbine. But he’s won ten of his other most recent eleven starts at exactly a mile elsewhere, including this race last year.

Twelve horses which previously reached the first three in the Breeders’ Cup Mile have run in the race again. Six of the twelve won, including three of the four previous winners.

Kip Deville can make the running or sit off the lead and he acts on any going. He’s avoided the training troubles which he suffered before winning this last year and is in terrific form according to his handler. He’s won a Grade 1 already this year and looks to have a major chance of winning this for the second time.



LORD ADMIRAL

A solid Group 3 horse that did manage to win a Dubai G2 from a dozen starts in G1 and G2 races. He’s now seven and surely not good enough to win for the first time at this level.



PRECIOUS KITTEN

Useful filly that seems to like the smaller fields she faces in California. She’s won all three G1 races that she’s contested with fields of six or less but lost all three in bigger fields (she tends to get caught out wide in bigger fields). She’s run against nothing but fillies in her 23 starts to date and looks to have a tough task against them in this relatively big field.

SHAKIS

I guess anything is possible. But the idea of an eight year old winning its first Group 1 on its eighth attempt at the top level in the world’s biggest mile race is a bit of a reach. Did finish second in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile last time. That was not as good as this race though. And these days Shakis does seem to need breaks between his runs. Since moving to America he’s won three of the five times he’s been rested for six weeks or more but lost all six times he’s returned to the races more quickly as he does here.



THORN SONG

Useful front runner that has made all to win G1 Shadwell Turf Mile and G2 Firecracker Handicap this season. His sole loss in four turf starts at a mile was a length and a quarter third to Kip Deville in G1 Makers Mark in April. In that race he was allowed to set a moderate pace but Kip Deville still managed to beat him comfortably. At the likely stronger pace he’ll have to go here it’s hard to see why Thorn Song should turn that form around.



U S RANGER

The accepted wisdom Stateside is that a European sprinter can go a mile on turf and a miler can go ten furlongs thanks the slower early pace of US contests on the grass. Indeed the European Champion Sprinter Last Tycoon won this race back in 1986.

U S Ranger has been running well in the top European sprints. But he carries his head very high and seems tricky to win with. He’s good at beating up cheap rivals but always appears to find a way to lose to better opposition. So far he’s won all five times he’s raced below Group class and lost all ten times he’s raced in Group company.

The counter argument (and it’s a good one) is that U S Ranger is not happy sprinting and prefers going a mile around tight turns at a slow pace. He won impressively all three times he raced in such circumstances in France and is the fastest horse in this race on the clock. He’ll start at huge odds in America and looks rather interesting.



WAR MONGER

Yet to win in six starts in Graded company and has been repeatedly beaten by several of today’s rivals.



WHATSTHESCRIPT

Strong finisher that has won four of the five times he’s run a mile. His sole loss came when he was injured in a G3 last year. Won the G2 Del Mar Mile last time. After that his trainer said he planned to put him away for this race as he is clearly best when fresh. Indeed, barring that race where he was injured, Whatsthescript has won five of the six times he’s come into a race off a break of five weeks or more. His one defeat was a half length loss where he finished like a train after meeting traffic problems.

Probably the best miler in California and deserves to be one of the favourites here.



SUMMARY

This race would have been a gift for Raven’s Pass. With him out of the way and Goldikova looking to be in the wrong race too, it shapes up as a match between last year’s winner KIP DEVILLE and the top local miler WHATSTHESCRIPT. Kip Deville does look to be the best of this pair and the stats say his previous win in the race is a huge pointer. However US RANGER is surely worth a saver at the big odds he’s likely to start at in America.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:31 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

BUSHRANGER 37

SQUARE EDDIE 34

MIDSHIPMAN 32

MUNNINGS 32

STREET HERO 32

SILENT VALOR 30

TERRAIN 30

AZUL LEON 29

PIONEEROF THE NILE 28

ELUSIVE BLUFF 27

GALLANT SON 27

MINE THAT BIRD 27

WEST SIDE BERNIE 27



AZUL LEON

Broke his maiden in a four and a half furlong race. Won a 6f G3 and then a 6.5f G2 on a disuqalification, each time coming from far back with a powerful finish. But looked like he didn’t stay when trying the same in the G1 Norfolk over this distance last time. He came with his usual big run from the back but then flattened out in the final furlong and a half.





BUSHRANGER

Owns the biggest speed ratings in the race. And you could argue he has exactly the same profile as Johannesburg who won this race in 2001. After all, like Johannesburg he’s won the G1 Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes on his last two runs. So perhaps he’ll stay the much longer distance just like Johannesburg did.

The difference is that Johannesburg won all six of his starts before taking this. And he earned Racing Post ratings of 120 plus in the last four. In addition his sire had run second in this race and he’d already won around a turn. Bushranger has only won on straight courses and his sire was Danetime who didn’t stay beyond six furlongs.

Bushranger has the physique of a sprinter and certainly runs like one. In fact his trainer said earlier this year he was going to keep him to sprints. Maybe the tight turns will help him stay. But it’s hard to enthuse about a horse that’s trying a new distance, a new surface and a turn for the first time in a Championship race.





ELUSIVE BLUFF

Deep-chested, long striding, powerful sort that’s very strong over the withers (he‘d make a great jumper). He cruised home in a mile maiden on the turf at Belmont first time. Then he took a G3 over this distance, again on turf, over the same course.

The early pace was much slower when Elusive Bluff won last time and he took a long time to get going and finally catch the leader by a neck after being fifth by four lengths with a furlong to run. He did so in a rather lumbering fashion and my feeling is that he would not have got up if the going hadn’t been yielding.

Elusive Bluff runs like he’ll be wanting ten furlongs plus in future. Switching from Belmont’s big, galloping oval to this tight circuit doesn’t look a great idea for such a long striding sort. My feeling is that he’ll get chopped for speed at some crucial stage and will be staying on too late to grab any prize money.



GALLANT SON

Lost a 4.5f maiden on his debut but has won his next three starts, the last three minor stakes races, all at the third division track Emerald Downs.

Gallant Son needs to run a whole lot faster here, but he’s been winning his raes with any amount in hand and might just be up to this level. All his runs have been on dirt, but his sire was a Stakes winner on turf and his dam’s two best speed ratings were earned the two times she ran on turf.

Most years we see a two year old that’s run away with a string of races at a minor track contest the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. None of them have won to date. Maybe Gallant Son will be different, but I wouldn’t bet on it.



MIDSHIPMAN

This is a long striding horse that’s bred to go at least nine furlongs and is built for ten plus. He doesn’t do anything quickly, and I suspect this, rather than inexperience is why he’s been steered to the outside to make his run on all three starts to date. He’d find it hard to avoid traffic problems down on the rail.

In each of his three starts Midshipman has raced in midfield then made a big move racing wide around the home turn. He sustained the move up the straight to win a hot Del Mar maiden from Street Hero who looked to have gone too early. It just took him to the front to win the 7f Del Mar Futurity by a nose (where Street Hero finished like a train to take a close third). But his run flattened out in the last half furlong when he ran three parts of a length second in the Norfolk over this course and distance last time to his old rival Street Here.

Clearly one of the big players. But I’d fancy him more if this race were around the big mile and a half oval of Belmont Park rather than this one mile circuit.



MINE THAT BIRD

Long striding ex-Canadian colt that’s bred for at least this far. Lost debut but won subsequent four starts over increasingly longer trips and in higher class - all on Woodbine‘s Polytrack in Canada. Met traffic on the rail on the far side when coming with a sustained run off slow early pace to take G3 Grey Breeders Cup Stakes over this distance last time. Sold into the stable top California trainer Richard Mandella after that run. Needs to run a lot faster to win this but does look capable of improvement.





MUNNINGS

By Champion sprinter Speightstown out of an unraced dam whose only previous winner scored over six furlongs. Showed blistering early speed to make all the running over six furlongs on his debut, where he ran the first half mile in under 45 seconds.

Next time out in the G1 Hopeful Stakes over 7f, Munnings was off slow and forced to come from last. He made a big move from three furlongs out to the entrance to the straight to get into contention but tired in the final furlong to finish third by over four lengths to Vineyard Haven.

Munnings got off on terms and raced third early in the 1m G1 Champagne Stakes next time. But he could only chug on at the one pace and narrowly take second as Vineyard Haven went further and further clear to beat him by nearly six lengths.

Perhaps Munnings will stay better over this much tighter course. Maybe he’ll improve for being switched to a synthetic surface for the first time. But on balance he surely needs to go back to sprint trips.



PIONEEROF THE NILE

Son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Pioneerof The Nile runs as though he wants even further than the mile and a half of that race.

First time out this long striding colt was made to look awfully one paced in a sprint finish for a mile and half a furlong turf maiden at Saratoga. Next time though a scorching early pace set an identical race up for him and he loped thought from far back to win.

On his most recent start Pioneerof The Nile was switched to Polytrack for the G2 Futurity at Keeeneland. He came from miles behind with a big sweeping move very wide to get into contention at the entrance to the straight but got outpaced from there as Square Eddie ran right away from him. He still chugged on to be a distant third.

If they went around the track twice here Pioneerof The Nile would be a great bet. At this distance I just can’t believe he’ll have the pace needed to get competitive however fast his rivals go early.



SILENT VALOR

Showed terrific early speed to spreadeagle his rivals by halfway when winning a 5f Belmont maiden. But he’s built and bred to just about last this distance, so it was no big surprise he couldn’t get to three even faster front runners in the early stages of the G3 Sapling next time. He gradually wore them down and ended up winning by an expanding length and a half.

Silent Valor had lost on Polytrack first time out and lost again when switched to a synthetic surface for the G1 Norfolk over this course and distance last time. He fought his way to contention by the entrance to the straight but from there the principles steadily edged away from him though he kept on nicely to finish fifth.

Not impossible but in addition to the slight stamina concerns it’s hard to get away from the fact he’s won two out of two on dirt and lost two out of two on synthetic surfaces like this.



SQUARE EDDIE

Looks too tall and scopey to be effective at sprint trips, and is bred to stay at least this far. But cleared right away over the very stiff six furlongs at Salisbury to break his maiden.

Stayed at six furlongs for the 6f G3 Sirenia Stakes on Polytrack. But couldn’t quite shake off Elnawin who beat him home by a head.

Finally stepped up to the kind of trip he surely needs when taking the G1 Breeders Futurity over this distance on Keeneland’s Polytrack on his first US start. He powered away up the straight there to win by nearly five lengths full of run.

It should be noted that European juveniles tend to have an edge over American ones for the simple reason that our best youngsters start racing two or three months earlier. They’re fitter and more battle-hardened whey they face American juveniles. The reason they don’t win more often is that European trainers send the wrong horses over to the States. If they would only send North American bred runners that had plenty of previous starts they’d do far better.

So far there have been five North American bred European runners in the Juvenile that had six or more previous starts:

1991 Arazi WON

2000 Noverre eleventh

2001 Johannesburg WON

2004 Wilko WON

2005 Set Alight thirteenth



Square Eddie has had only five starts. But he would have had more but for a bout of sore shins. And the fact that he’s already won a US G1 shows he does seem to enjoy the edge that other experienced North American bred European runners have had when they’ve run in America.

STREET HERO

A strong, rangy sort that’s clearly built and bred to go longer trips, Street Hero made a big move to quickly take the lead before the home turn in a hot Del Mar maiden three runs back over 5.5f. It looked like he went too soon though as Midshipman was able to come out of the pack to catch him.

Next time in the 7f G1 Del Mar Futurity Street Hero was held up, and perhaps for too long because he finished like a train up the straight to take a close third to Midshipman.

Finally Street Hero made his move at the right time when sticking closer to the pace and kicking on approaching the final furlong to beat his old rival Midshipman in the G1 Norfolk over this course and distance. That looked like a really strong race to me and I think the winner is going to emerge from it - Street Hero being the most likely candidate.



TERRAIN

Started off by winning a 5.5f maiden claiming race. Followed that up by taking a minor stake at the Ohio course Mountaineer Park. Then placed first after meeting interference in the G3 Arlington Washington Futurity. None of these races earned him a decent speed rating. So it’s not surprising Square Eddie was able to run away from him up the straight in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland on his most recent start. He ran a distant second there and it’s hard to see why he should turn that form around.





WEST SIDE BERNIE

Less mature physically than many of his rivals, West Side Bernie is nonetheless undefeated in two starts. H won a Monmouth Park maiden on dirt on his racecourse debut then followed up with a win on Polytrack in the G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile. In both races he settled just off the pace and made a big wide move to take the lead before drawing off in the closing stages to win driven out. Those races weren’t against this level of opposition and earned West Side Bernie the lowest speed ratings in this race. He needs to improve a lot to feature, and I doubt that he can.





SUMMARY

California is a long way from the other big American circuits and few two year olds are good travelers. So it makes sense that five of the six times this race has been run in California it has gone to a horse that won in California last time or reached the first four in the key local prep race, the Norfolk.

The Norfolk looked like a strong race this year, so I think it will produce the winner of this event. The winner of the Norfolk was STREET HERO and he looks the right choice.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:32 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

DEL CONTE 32

DONATIVUM 32

GRAND ADVENTURE 32

PADDY THE PRO 32

SKIPADATE 32

WESTPHALIA 32

CORONET OF A BARON 30

BITTEL ROAD 29

CITY SMILE 27

MARK S THE COOLER 27

NINTH CLIENT 27

RELATVIELY READY 27

VAQUERO 27

BOURBON BAY 24

ORTHODOX 24





BITTEL ROAD

Mature, good-bodied, classy looking sort that’s won all three of his starts. He overcame traffic problems to win his last two and looked much the best each time though only winning narrowly. Looks a big player.

CITY STYLE

Stepped up to 8.5f from 6f and switched to turf from dirt to win a minor stakes at Louisiana Downs last time. The early pace was strong and this rather angular, tall sort did nothing but drop further and further back for the first 6f. He picked up strongly when the pace collapsed though and stormed through late. The opposition wasn’t strong and the final times was slow so he clearly needs to do a lot more here.

CORONET OF A BARON

Close-coupled, muscular sort that looks built for sprinting. Indeed only one of his dam’s other four foals stayed beyond sprint trips, and he only did so when winning really cheap claiming races.

First time out Coronet Of A Baron showed remarkable early pace to rush up and take the lead in a five furlong maiden. Next time out in the 6.5f G2 Best Pal he disputed the lead before kicking on entering the straight. He then tired in the closing stages and got caught to finish third.

On his latest outing Coronet Of A Baron was restrained off the early pace in an attempt to last the seven furlongs of the Del Mar Futurity. It looked like the strategy would work as he made up ground quickly to surge into the lead entering the straight. Once more though he began to tire in the closing stages and got caught by the stronger finishing Midshipman, losing by a nose.

Coronet Of A Baron is clearly useful. But the way he’s built, bred and races tells me he is not a good proposition to stay the mile of this race.





DONATIVUM

Showed good early speed to win his maiden over 6f. Held up to get the 7f when winning the Timeform Million. A mile is somewhat doubtful on pedigree and looks. And I don’t like betting a horse at this level which is trying a turn for the first time.



GRAND ADVENTURE

Long striding sort that’s built for ten furlongs plus. Won his maiden then had to come wide to lead a furlong out in a Woodbine G3. Looked set to lope clear there but Skipadate put down a determined challenge and Grand Adventure had to produce a second big effort to score by a head from the horse Bittel Road beat by exactly the same margin. Obvious chance but may get done for a turn of foot over this distance.

NINTH CLIENT

Dead heated with Skipadate who came wide on his first try. Then beaten by that one and Bittel Road in his next two starts. Watch the video of his loss to Bittel Road and it’s hard to believe he’ll turn the form around.



PADDY THE PRO

I recognise that horses by Australian sprint sires often look big, tall and scopey yet fail to stay beyond sprint distances. But Paddy The Pro really does look like he’ll go a good deal longer than the six furlongs he’s tried so far. He’s built like a jumper. Indeed two of his three siblings were tried over hurdles (one placed).

Paddy The Pro would not look out of place in a two mile hurdle, and he’s finished strongly to win his last two starts on Polytrack. In the first of them he came off a slow early pace to pick off the leaders and win going away in a race where I timed the last two furlongs as being run in 22.45 seconds. Next time out off a much stronger early pace,, he again picked up strongly to go right away at the finish to take a good six furlong nursery handicap by over three lengths. The runner up went on to win next time and then lose Ireland’s most valuable 2YO handicap by less than a length.

What has been most impressive about Paddy The Pro’s two wins is that both times he ran like an old hand, pushing between rivals to create a gap without hesitation. He’s not far off the best of these on the clock and looks to have improvement in him, especially over the longer trip. True he’s yet to show form on anything but Polytrack, but he’s bred for turf and most Polytrack winners do act on firm turf.



RELATIVELY READY

New York bred that won a turf maiden in slow time at Saratoga then kept on to be third in a G3. No New York bred horse has won a Breeders’ Cup race and this one looks shy of what’s required to take this.



SKIPADATE

Dead heated on his debut then showed real class to produce a sustained challenge when finishing a head second to Bittel Road and the Grand Adventure in two stakes races. He has run significantly faster with each start and might just get the job done this time.



VAQUERO

Won an AW maiden at Turfway then kept on to be fourth to Bittel Road after disputing the lead in a stakes race next time. Bittel Road looked a better horse there.



WESTPHALIA

Very mature and muscular colt that quickened up impressively to scoot clear in a 7.5f Listed race at Tipperary. Beat the smart Zacinto in the G2 Champagne Stakes last time off a slow early pace. In between ran a clunker on bottomless ground at the Curragh.

Proven on a fast surface, around a tight turn and within half a furlong of this trip. Probably a cut above any of these.



SUMMARY

WESTPHALIA should take this and offers real value around 3-1 or 4-1. But PADDY THE PRO could easily improve enough to take it over the extra distance and looks worth an additional bet at the huge odds he’s likely to start at on the US tote.





BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

FABULOUS STRIKE 45

INDIAN BLESSING 44

COST OF FREEDOM 42

FATAL BULLET 42

BLACK SEVENTEEN 41

IN SUMMATION 41

MIDNIGHT LUTE 38

STREET BOSS 38

SING BABY SING 37



BLACK SEVENTEEN

Unlike the local key prep, the Ancient Title, the big East Coast prep for this, the Vosburgh, is a long established G1 that attracts a big field and is hard to win. So it makes sense that winners of that race tend to lose this one. Artax is the only horse that has managed to hold his form well enough after winning the Vosburgh to take this. The other 16 Vosburgh winners to run in this race all lost.

Black Seventeen won this year’s Vosburgh in a long driving finish. Maybe he’ll have recovered from that effort. But I don’t like the fact that he’s shown no stamina beyond six furlongs like most previous winners of this race which is invariably run at a scorching pace.



COIST OF FREEDOM

In the last twenty years the Breeders' Cup has been run three times in California. In two of those three years the winner of the big race had just won the Ancient Title, California's top sprint. In the other year the winner of the Ancient Title did not contest the Breeders' Cyup Sprint, but the horse which finished third did and ended up running second.

With the race set to be run on a new synthetic surface this year, the winner of the Ancient Title has something extra going for it. So clearly this year's winner Cost Of Freedom merits very close inspection.

Cost Of Freedom was claimed for just $50,000 after winning at Del Mar on July 28th and is clearly a bargain. He's now won all six times he's run less than seven furlongs and broke the course record here, admittedly on a new surface.

Cost Of Freedom was always moving strongly on the outside early on in a close fourth. Entering the straight he made a big move to burst into the lead and go clear. He was tiring in the last furlong as the hot favourite Street Boss stormed home down the outside but held on by half a length.

I don't see why Street Boss is favourite to turn that form around. Yes he had won his five previous starts in a row and finished like a train. But the fact is he always has to come really wide for his run and this has to be a concern in what will be a much bigger field in the big race. My feeling from watching the Ancient Title is that Cost Of Freedom is the better horse and would have won this more impressively if his jockey had delayed moving on him until a little later.



FABULOUS STRIKE

Has run some sensationally fast times and has tremendous early pace. He’s led at the first call in his last thirteen starts on dirt. A head second in the Vosburgh last time, he won the same race last year.

One big concern is that he’s been dominating small fields from the front to win 10 times out of 16. The only time he met anything other than a single figure field was on his racecourse debut where he failed to get the lead and run unplaced.

The other big concern is that he’s never tried a synthetic surface. And the only time he tried turf, the next closest thing on his circuit, he only managed fifth.

Looks sure to set a scorching pace. But there are too many negatives for me to bet that he’ll lead all the way.



FATAL BULLET

Has won all seven times that he’s run less than seven furlongs on AW tracks. The only time he scored by less than three lengths was two runs back where he still won comfortably.

Last time out Fatal Bullet flew home by seven and a half lengths in the Kentucky Cup Sprint in terrific time. What was most impressive about his performance there was how he cruised along at a scorching pace that had his rivals at full stretch.

This is an improving three year old that just keeps running faster and faster as he meets better opposition.

Three previous Breeders’ Cup Sprint runners earned really big speed ratings while winning the Kentucky Cup Sprint: Reraise and Cajun Beat who won the big race in 1998 and 2003, and Caller One who ran fourth in 2000. Fatal Bullet looks to have a real chance of adding to that fine record.



IN SUMMATION

Classy looking horse that always seems to move well in the early stages. However two runs back he did something that has me concerned. He jerked his head to the side three times in the closing stages to try and wrest control from his jockey and eased himself up the third time.

Tends to come wide for his run and this, together with his obvious steering problems probably explains why he’s never won in anything but a single figure field and has run unplaced the last five times he’s run in fields of ten or more on anything but a soft surface (my research shows that a soft surface spreads the runners out and makes it easier to avoid traffic).

Still moving well at the finish when third to Cost Of Freedom and Street Boss in the Ancient Title last time. But I can’t trust him in a field this big.





MIDNIGHT LUTE

Won this race brilliantly last year on dirt. But has suffered from a quarter crack since and managed just the one start in 2008. He finished tenth to Lewis Michael that day, running far below his best. His trainer says the quarter crack has now ‘grown out nicely’ and that Midnight Lute is working better. However I cannot see him bouncing back to his best off such a preparation.

SING BABY SING

Scored an upset win on his first start on the AW or in Graded company when taking Keeneland G3 last time. But even that run leaves him as the slowest horse in this line up. You could argue he’s won three of the four times he’s run a mile or less on turf or the. But he looks plain outclassed here.

STREET BOSS

The last six runs of Street Boss all look the same. He drops out to be tailed off last while being ridden along in the early stages. Then he comes really wide around the home turn with a big sweeping move to challenge. He got up to win in five of these six starts, including two G1’s and only just missed catching Cost Of Freedom by half a length in the G! Ancient Title last time. He’s won seven of his last nine on AW tracks and lost the other two by half a length or less. It’s easy to see why he’s favourite. But I’m concerned that he’ll drop back further than ever off the likely fierce pace here and be forced to run wider than ever when he makes his run due to the big field. He could still win anyway.





SUMMARY

Street Boss is a perfectly logical favourite here. But I think COST OF FREEDOM beat him fair and square last time and is a solid bet to extend his unbeaten run in short sprints to seven. The three year old FATAL BULLET also looks tough to beat and is worth betting as well.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:33 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

CONDUIT 42

OUT OF CONTROL 42

GRAND COUTURIER 41

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE 40

BETTER TALK NOW 39

EAGLE MOUNTAIN 39

RED ROCKS 39

DANCING FOREVER 38

SPRING HOUSE 38

RED ROCK CANYON 36

WINCHESTER 36









BETTER TALK NOW

Won this race way back in 2004 but looks to have lost a step as a nine year old, even when he’s had the strong pace and cut in the ground he prefers. His last win was 16 months ago. Ran a clunker the only previous time he ran in California and I’d bet on him turning in another.

CONDUIT

I confess that I under-rated Conduit before. But the fast time he cocked in the St Leger and his overall record have won me over. If he’d been fitter on his seasonal debut and not been caught napping by Campanologist at Royal Ascot he’d be unbeaten in six starts beyond a mile. He made up an extraordinary amount of ground to scoot home by six lengths in a hot 10f handicap at Epsom on Derby day, proving he can handle tight turns and a downhill course. He’s shown he can win in a sprint finish too. There have been three running of the Breeders’ Cup where a three year old that placed in the St Leger has run. If Milan hadn’t gone under narrowly they’d have won two times out of three.



DANCING FOREVER

G1 winner ran unplaced in last two without any obvious cause. Probably over the top for the season. Speed ratings indicate he’s behind the best of these anyway.

EAGLE MOUNTAIN

Won a G3 over a mile following a year off with an injured pelvis. Has the ability to go close but has now lost all six G1’s he’s contested and is running in a very strong renewal of this race.



GRAND COUTURIER

Strong, staying sort has shown his best form on the two biggest, most galloping East Coast turf courses - Saratoga and Belmont Park. But he's run well below his best on tighter courses like this, especially in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf around Monmounth's seven furlong oval. Ran away with the G1 Turf Classic on yielding turf at Belmont last time. But the ground will be firm here and the course is much tighter.

OUT OF CONTROL

Ran his best ever race when chasing a searching early gallop, kicking on and then going under in a photo to Red Giant in seriously fast time here on his last start. The concern is that he’s not certain to get the extra quarter mile here. In addition he’s now lost all seven times he’s tackled G1 company. Interesting but I prefer others





RED ROCK CANYON

Acts as pacemaker for Soldier Of Fortune. Useful but still a maiden after 17 starts.



RED ROCKS

Won this race back in 2006 and showed he’s as good as ever by taking the GH1 Man O’War from Curlin last time. But this is a better renewal of the race than he won, and speed ratings suggest he won’t quite be good enough



SOLDIER OF FORTUNE

Solid duel G1 winner. But his best win by far came on heavy ground and he clearly lacks a serious turn of foot. Aidan O’Brien expressed concerns about running him on firm ground in the Arc where he was a rather one-paced third. The going will be a lot fir4mer here and a sprint finish is very likely. That won’t suit him at all.



SPRING HOUSE

Got beat nine lengths in the Dubai Sheema Classic and over six lengths by Red Giant last time. Speed rat5ings say that’s as good as he is.



WINCHESTER

Showed a terrific turn of foot to run away with the G1 Secratariat Stakes. But that’s a bogus G1 restricted to 3YO’s that can easily be won by a G3 or Listed class horse, which is what speed ratings and all know form say Winchester is.



SUMMARY

CONDUIT looks the obvious choice here. Bet Conduit on the US tote and you’ll probably get around 8-1, way better than the bookies are offering.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:38 PM
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

CURLIN 45

RAVEN’S PASS 44

DUKE OF MARMALADE 43

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR 43

GO BETWEEN 40

STUDENT COUNCIL 40

CHAMPS ELYSEES 39

SMOOTH AIR 39

TIAGO 39

CASINO DRIVE 38

FAIRBANKS 38

COLONEL JOHN 35



AWESOME GEM

All this horse’s runs look the same when you watch the videos. He sits miles back, far off the pace then makes a huge move to gain masses of ground without being ridden. Up the straight his jockey may wave the whip at him once or twice early on but thereafter is clearly at pains to only use hands and heels to coax Awesome Gem along.

We’ve all seen this kind of horse before and know how ferociously hard they are to win with. They can look tremendous beating up on cheapies and can go close against smart rivals as long as they’re not pressured.. But they just don’t win the really big races because they down tools when their riders ask them for maximum effort.

Awesome Gem ran a distant third in this race last year. But he’s lost the last twelve Stakes races he’s contested. And he’s finished second nine times while winning just four. He did win a Grade 2 a while ago. Maybe if they go crazy up front early he’ll coast through from far back to win narrowly on the line. He obviously has any amount of ability and looks a terrific bet at big odds to reach the first three for the sixteenth time in his last twenty starts. I find it hard to see him winning though.













CASINO DRIVE

I am a sucker for a good storyline so I really wanted to see the unbeaten Japanese star Casino Drive do something special when he tried the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita before running in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

He won all right, and he had a bit in hand at the line. But what I saw tells me that Casino Drive is what his pedigree says; a dirt horse.

What I had hoped to see was Casino Drive produce the acceleration that seems to win most Pro-Ride races. At first everything seemed to be going fine in this regard. When jockey Victor Espinoza asked Casino Drive to kick just after the three furlong pole he picked up well off the slow pace, cruising the next two furlongs in 23 seconds flat. It looked like he was going to run away with the race at this point, just as he had in his two previous outings on dirt. But in the final half furlong, despite Espnoza getting busy, Casino Drive's rivals started closing slowly and he covered the distance in exactly 6 seconds. In other words he slowed from 11.5 seconds to 12.0 seconds a furlong.

Espinoza commented afterwards "It was a slow pace and that's why I let him go at the three-eighths pole, so he could get something out of the race for the next race." He added that he pushed Casino Drive out in the final furlong because "I wanted to see how much horse I had." I have to say that's not how it looked to me. I reckon he pushed Casino Drive because he was being challenged and that he would only have won by a rapidly diminishing neck or half length if Espinoza hadn't ridden him.

Casino Drive is a seriously good looking horse with a huge stride. He's definitely an animal that lengthens rather than quickens, one who will excel at much longer than the mile and 110 yards of this Allowance (Conditions) race. On reflection he would have been a stone cold certainty for the mile and a half Belmont Stakes if a stone bruise on the eve of the race hadn't forced his withdrawal. No doubt he'll improve for the step up in distance in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But, just like the probable favourite Curlin, he looks to be an out and out dirt performer that lacks the acceleration required to win a top race on any other surface.



CHAMPS ELYSEES

Like his brilliant siblings, Banks Hill, Cacique, Heat Haze, Intercontinental and Dansili, Champs Elysees can produce a terrific finishing burst. He ran the last three furlongs in under 34 seconds when second to Schiaparelli in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club last year. He came home in 23 seconds flat for the final quarter mile when winning the Grade 2 San Marcos Stakes. And he took just 16.3 seconds to run the final furlong and a half when running past rivals as if they were standing still to take third in the Santa Anita Handicap over this course and distance. That run showed he’s just as good on an artificial surface as he is on grass.

The main concern is that, like many of his siblings, Champs Elysees does seem to be best fresh. He broke his maiden when he’d had a couple of recent runs. But since then all his wins and good runs have come off a break of six weeks or more. In fact he’s reached the first three all eleven times he’s been rested for six weeks or more but placed just two times and never won from six starts off shorter breaks. He did run third in the Canadian International last time off a four week turnaround. But he’d been off for nine weeks before his next to last start, so he was still relatively fresh. This will be his third run in six and a half weeks.

The other worry about Champs Elysees is whether the early pace will be strong enough to pull him into this race. The early pace in the Santa Anita Handicap was freakishly fast for an All Weather contest. And he got going so later there that even if they went that fast again I can’t see him getting up in time.





COLONEL JOHN

Colonel John’s big claim to fame is that he won the Travers Stakes. But Travers Stakes winners don’t exactly have a good record in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, as you can see from their stats below;

07 Street Sense fourth

06 Bernardini second

05 Flower Alley second

04 Birdstone seventh

03 Ten Most Wanted eighth

02 Medaglia D’Oro second

99 Lemon Drop Kid sixth

98 Coronado’s Quest fifth

97 Deputy Commander second

96 Wills Way sixth

95 Thunder Gulch fifth

92 Thunder Rumble seventh

90 Rhythm eighth

89 Easy Goer second

88 Forty Niner fourth

85 Chief’s Crown fourth

The main problem Travers winners face here was summed up by the great British athlete Sebastian Coe. He said “you can’t peak twice in the same season.” It takes a peak performance to win the Travers, and a horse is unlikely to be able to peak again for the Breeders’ Cup Classic just two months later.

Trainer Eoin Harty has been thinking of this all season and carefully mapped out a schedule that would get Colonel John to the Breeders’ Cup Classic in good shape. As a result when Colonel John lines up for the big race it will be only his second start in over fourteen weeks.

Assuming the light preparation works (and that’s a huge assumption) there are still a couple of other concerns about Colonel John here. The first is that he simply hasn’t run very fast. His speed ratings are no better than Grade 3 class. You can argue that he’s won every time he’s been fit and hasn’t encountered traffic problems, and that a horse only needs to run fast enough to beat the rivals he faces. But this brings us on to the second concern about Colonel John, namely the traffic.

Colonel John had a dreadfully troubled passage in the Kentucky Derby. He had to be snatched up when first making his challenge in the Travers. And he also encountered traffic problems when winning the Santa Anita Derby. He’s a big, galumphing beast with a centre of gravity that’s a tad too high. As a result he is slow to respond and hard to steer. This makes it more difficult for him to avoid traffic problems. He’s been able to overcome traffic trouble to win two Grade 1 races against his own age group. But he can’t afford them if he’s going to win a race this good against his elders. He needs a trouble free run to have any realistic chance of winning. And in the big field that seems set to line up here that certainly looks unlikely.

One thing to like about Colonel John is that he’s a proper stayer. He failed to get going in time in one race where the early pace wasn’t strong. But he clearly stays every inch of a mile and a quarter. If the early pace turns out to be fast he’ll no doubt be finishing strong.

I could envisage a win for Colonel John if Well Armed were taken on up front and the field were spread out across a wide distance of ground by a fierce early pace. This would make it easier to steer Colonel John out of trouble and place the emphasis on stamina. It’s possible he’d get up to win. But on balance I come back to the fact that he won a weak renewal of the Travers by only a nose in modest time. If brilliant Travers winners like Bernardini, Medaglia D’Oro, Street Sense and Easy Goer couldn’t win this race it seems a bit of a stretch to believe that Colonel John can.



CURLIN

When I saw a photograph of Curlin just before he ran in the Dubai World Cup I was astonished at how muscular he was. I made a copy of the photo and e-mailed it to several people saying that there was no way a horse could look like that naturally. Curlin just had to be on steroids.

Curlin's owner Jess Jackson clearly felt the same way as he called his trainer Steve Asmussen to ask the obvious question. When he found out that Curlin was in fact receiving the regular injections of the anabolic steroid Winstrol which most American racechorses get he ordered Asmussen to stop the practice right away. Jackson later went on to appear before the US Congress as a witness when they held an inquiry into the use of steroids in American horse racing.

Jackson has to be commended for his actions. But I have to say that the subsequent performance of Curlin now raises major questions about what made him a Champion.

Curlin did produce two big runs in Dubai a few weeks after being taken off steroids. But his more recent runs, plus his physical appearance makes me believe that he is simply not as fast now their effect has worn off.

When I saw Curlin in the paddock at Saratoga on September 1st he didn't look anything like that photo I'd seen of him at the beginning of the year. I can't say for sure, but I strongly suspect he'd dropped around fifty pounds in weight, maybe more. He looked far more like a normal racehorse than the incredible hulk he'd appeared earlier.

Curlin only scrambled home at Saratoga in a time a second or more slower than he would have clocked before. He again won narrowly in sub-par time when taking the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out. And this time Wanderin Boy, the horse he'd beaten nearly three lengths into third at Saratoga, got to within three parts of a length.

Wanderin Boy is a seven year old that has lost all nine times he's tackled Grade 1 company. Beating him by a rather hard fought three quarters of a length is not the performance of a Champion.

Putting aside the issue of whether Curlin’s ability stems from chemistry rather than class there remains the question of surface. He clearly got beaten for finishing speed by Red Rocks in the Man O’War. And Red Rocks is not exactly renowned for his acceleration. He needs soft turf or a strong early gallop to pull him into a race. If his rivals go slow then quicken up on a fast surface they tend to out kick him in the closing stages. Here there is no guarantee that the early pace will be as freakishly strong as it was in the Man O’War.

I wrote after the Man O’War that as I saw it Curlin simply had to go go back to dirt following the sub par run. He was made to look woefully one-paced in the closing stages. Like many top dirt runners he's a great big beast of a horse that is all about strength rather than acceleration. That's fine on dirt where the final furlong is normally run in 13 seconds or slower. But it wasn't helpful in the Man O’War even though the early pace was relatively strong for a US Turf race. I predicted that in a more normally run US turf race, where top class horses often run the final furlong way faster, Curlin would be left for dead. This may not be a turf race. But the surface produces finishes where they run just as fast.

There is a caveat to all this, and that is the way Curlin has run in his last two races. He’s started a run at the pacemaker on the turn with three furlongs to run each time. If he does that here and heads off Mast Track turning into the straight there must be a decent chance he’ll hold on to the line in the sprint finish. His jockey will surely know that if they go slow Curlin simply must steal first run on his rivals rather than get caught flat footed when they quicken.

Finally it’s interesting to note that, unlike the Mile, a previous placing in the Classic is not a positive sign. I suspect this is because (a) grass is easier on a horse’s legs so turf horses can stay sound longer and (b) it takes a better performance to win the Classic.

Here is how horses have fared in the Classic that previously reached the first four in the race;

1985 Gate Dancer 2nd

Track Baron 5th

1986 Turkoman 2nd

1987 Nostalgia’s Star 7th

1991 *Unbridled 3rd

1992 Twilight Agenda 9th

1994 Bertrando 6th

1995 Soul Of The Matter 5th

1996 *Cigar 3rd

2000 Golden Missile 10th

2001 *Tiznow WON

Albert The Great 3rd

2002 Macho Uno 5th

2003 Medaglia D’Oro 2nd

Evening Attire 7th

*Volponi 10th

2004 *Pleasantly Perfect 3rd

Ittasak 8th

2005 Perfect Drift 3rd

2006 Perfect Drift 8th

Flower Alley 11th

*Previous winner

As you can see, if that head bob between Tiznow and Sakhee had gone the other way in 2001, all 21 Classic runners with a previous first four finish in the race would have lost. It’s worth noting also that none of these 21 horses were being asked to switch surfaces when they tried the Classic for the second time.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:40 PM
DUKE OF MARMALADE

After Duke Of Marmalade scrambled home in the Juddmonte International I suggested that he was beginning to go stale after a long season and that he’d lose form if asked to keep on racing. Sure enough he ran a clunker in the Arc.

Last season Coolmore kept their best older horse Dylan Thomas on the go even though he looked as though he was just past his sell by date when winning the Arc. He proceeded to turn in two unplaced efforts in big international races. The smart money has to be on his stablemate Duke Of Marmalade going the same way.

You could argue though that the reason for Duke Of Marmalade’s apparent deteriorating form in his last two runs is that he didn’t get the searching early pace he needs in either of them. His string of big race wins came in races where the early gallop was tremendously strong.

Last season Duke Of Marmalade was made to look one-paced in a long series of races over inadequate distances or where the early pace wasn’t strong.

The problem with this argument is that the kind of searching early pace Duke Of Marmalade has had in his big wins rarely prevails in races run on synthetic surfaces.

Even if Duke Of Marmalade hasn’t lost form, there are still a couple of major worries for him here.

The first is that he’s a great big tall horse that’s been running around huge mile and a half plus ovals in Europe. Here he’ll be going around a one mile circuit with a one and a half furlong homestraight. Is he nimble enough to cope with it? Maybe, but it has to be a big concern.

The second worry is the likely pace scenario Duke Of Marmalade will face here. They tend to quicken up in the closing stages of races on this surface. And though Duke Of Marmalade can produce a fast finish he does take a while to reach full stride. In fact all but one of his six wins have been achieved on tracks with uphill finishes that have pulled his rivals back to him. The exception was the Prix Ganay where Spirit One set a scorching early pace. Even so Duke Of Marmalade only just got there, and Saddex did look a bit unlucky not to catch him.

Smart as he obviously is, for me there are just too many negatives about Duke Of Marmalade here.





FAIRBANKS

Two things seem to drive the form of Fairbanks. The first is that he suffers from stifle problems. This almost certainly explains why all his five wins since his maiden success have come off breaks of six weeks or more.

The second is that his regular jockey, Richard Migliore, describes him as ‘tricky to ride. This surely explains why all his six wins have come in fields of seven or less where it’s been easier to keep him out of trouble.

Fairbanks come into this race off a break of just four weeks. And he’s running in a field twice as big as he’s ever beaten. What’s more he is trying an All Weather track for the first time. The fact that he was switched to dirt to break his maiden on his third start after running unplaced on his first two starts on turf does not inspire confidence in his ability to adapt to this surface. Nor does the fact that he’s never shown anything like the finishing kick that wins big races on turf and the AW.











GO BETWEEN

Strong, good-bodied sort that has been finishing strongly while running a string of good races in big contests on turf and synthetic surfaces. But it’s hard to get away from his relatively low speed ratings and the lines of form which indicate he’s been doing well because of weak opposition.

For example in his latest start Go Between just got up in a driving finish to beat the ex Clive Brittain trained colt Well Armed in the G1 Pacific Classic on Del Mar‘s Polytrack. We all know how good Well Armed is. He got beat eight lengths into third in the Dubai World Cup by Curlin and has consistently run ho hum G3 speed ratings, just like Go Between has.

If the early pace is really strong I can see Go Between picking up late to place. But it’s hard to believe he’s good enough to actually win a race this good.





HENRYTHENAVIGATOR

Aidan O'Brien blamed the 'soft' ground for the defeat of Henrythenavigator in the Prix du Moulin at Longhcamp. But although the runners were throwing up divots the time for the race was the second fastest since they switched it to the main course back in 1987. In fact race times for the entire card indicated the ground was good to firm.

As I see it the real reason for Henrythenavigator's loss was the distance. All season he's been scoring his big wins over a mile on courses with very long or uphill homestraights. At Longchamp on a basically dead flat track with a short homestraight he clearly struggled to go the pace.

Early on, as the pacemakers went at it hammer and tong, Henrythenavigator was far back and being ridden along. He made ground steadily in the closing stages and was finishing best of all to get beat only two lengths. In the last 100 yards especially he was picking up really strongly.

Early on this season O'Brien talked about running Henrythenavigator in the Derby. This is not suprising. His dam ran a close fourth in the Irish Oaks and his sister was a good ten furlong performer. And Henrythenavigator is a big strong colt that finishes strongly over a mile.

Henrythenavigator's subsequent second place finish in the QEII did nothing to disabuse me of the idea that he'll be ideally suited to ten furlongs. He kept on really strongly there on the stiffest mile course that any Group 1 mile race is run on. In doing so he earned one of the biggest speed ratings I’ve given a three year old in years.

One thing I particularly like about Henrythenavigator in the context of this race is that while he’s had to be ridden along to go the early pace in a couple of races over a mile or less he has shown serious acceleration in the closing stages.

When he won the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood for example the early pace was really slow. The final half mile was run in just 44.6 seconds. The pace was even faster from the two furlong market. And it was Henrythenavigator that injected the extra pace, accelerating to get all his rivals in trouble. This suggests he’ll have no trouble if the pace suddenly quickens in the closing stages here.

While I fancy him strongly I have to concede that Henrythenavigator will be running two furlongs further than he ever has before and doing so on a surface that he’s never tried.

In this regard it’s important to note that every winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic so far previously won a G1 or G2 race over at least nine furlongs. Henrythenavigator hasn’t. It should also be said that just one of the 38 European runners in this race has managed to score.

However there is a big fat caveat to both of these stats. This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is the first to ever be run on a synthetic surface. Synthetic surfaces are undoubtedly less taxing of a horse’s stamina than dirt ones, partly because they offer a more secure footing, partly because they tend to produce a slower early pace. In addtion synthetic surfaces do tend to favour turf runners, and the Europeans that have run in this race have all been turf runners.







RAVEN’S PASS

When four pattern races are run over the same course and distance and one of the winners clocks a time 1.7 second faster than the others it's obvious that winner is awfully fast. That is undoubtedly the case with Raven’s Pass who won the QEII at Ascot on his latest start in exceptionally fast time.

You could argue that if Raven's Pass had been ridden more prominently as he was there and hadn't encountered a slow surface a couple of times he'd have won all eleven of his starts. All I can say for sure is that he has improved steadily all season, earning ratings of 39, 41, 42 and now 44 from me. To my eye he looks to have strengthened up and matured through the year which is why he's improved, something confirmed by trainer John Gosden

Raven's Pass now ranks as one of the best milers ever on my speed ratings and is clearly a very special horse. If I had to find one thing to knock him on it is the fact that he is a very smooth moving horse who seems to be balanced on a knife edge. You can't make sudden sideways movements with him without risk. It's very easy for him to come off a straight line as he did here briefly at one point. This being so I can see how he might just get into trouble in a big field in the Breeders' Cup Classic. I guess it's all going to depend on his draw. If he gets hung out wide he might not be able to get into a prominent position early. He'd probably have to come with his run right down the outside of the track to avoid having to bob and weave in between his rivals.

What was particularly impressive about the performance of both Raven's Pass and runner up Henrythenavigator in the QEII was that they came off a much stronger early pace than any of the other three mile races on the card but still managed to clock a faster time for the last quarter mile. The pair spurted away from the high class Tamayaz as they engaged in a long duel to the line.

Raven's Pass was actually edging away slowly from Henrythenavigator all the way to the line. Given how strongly both were finishing off a fast pace I can see why they’re thinking of running him in the Breeders' Cup Classic over ten furlongs rather than sticking to the mile. But neither his sire or dam won beyond a mile. And Raven’s Pass has shown such speed that Gosden floated the idea of cutting him back to six furlongs for the July Cup earlier this year.

The other thing that sways me about Raven’s Pass going ten furlongs is a maxim I’ve always followed. Namely that a horse is at its best at the outermost limits of its stamina. Over longer trips they won’t last home unless the early pace is slow, and over shorter distances they’re in danger of getting outpaced at a crucial stage.

Raven’s Pass has just earned one of the biggest speed ratings I’ve ever given a three year old, and he did it over a mile. This suggests a mile is his best distance.

Finally there is the physique of Raven’s Pass. He does not have the deep chest, long stride and strong build that you’d normally associate with a ten furlong horse.

It's a huge thing to ask of a horse to jump up to ten furlongs for the first time and switch surfaces in one of the world‘s biggest races. With the form, pedigree, physique and trainer all raising clear doubts about the stamina of Raven’s Pass the ten furlongs is obviously the all important question for the horse.

Perhaps the pace will be slow enough to enable Raven’s Pass to stay. Maybe he’s strengthened up so much he’ll be able to emulate Smarty Jones, another son of Eluisve Quality, and win a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter.

This is not an easy call because Raven’s Pass ranks as the fastest horse on my speed ratings here and I cannot state with certainty that he will not stay. But all the best indicators are that he won’t, so I’m passing him over, albeit with some reluctance.





STUDENT COUNCIL

It’s pretty obvious that Student Council has trouble being effective at the slower early pace which normally prevails on turf and synthetic surfaces. The only time he won on anything but dirt above minor allowance class was in last year’s Pacific Classic where the early pace was strong enough to cause the last two furlongs to be run in around 26.4 seconds. That’s freakishly slow for a top Polytrack race, and much slower than any other race on turf or a synthetic surface that he‘s contested.. He’s reached the first three in just one of his other seven starts in decent company on grass or synthetic surfaces. But he’s reached the first three all ten times he’s run beyond sprint trips on dirt.

Last time out Student Council pulled hard in the early stages of this year’s Pacific Classic (again on Polytrack). His chance here looks set to be determined by how strong the early pace is. If it’s strong enough to make him settle he might have a shot. But the truth is the only decent race on a synthetic surface he won was probably down to it being run like a dirt race. He won the Grade 1 Pimlico Special on dirt earlier this year and produced another big effort on dirt when second to Commentator in what Beyer ratings indicate was the fastest US race of 2008. It looks like dirt is his best surface.







TIAGO

The first thing that leaps off the page when you read Tiago’s form is that he seems to be best fresh. Since his losing racecourse debut he has run seven times off a break of five weeks or more. He won four of those seven times and finished second or third in his three losses. He’s been rested for less than five weeks on seven occasions and lost every single time, finishing out of the first three on four occasions.

The other obvious thing about Tiago is the question of stamina. He’s got beat all five times he’s gone ten furlongs or more. And every time he’s been beaten at least four lengths. Yes he has passed some horses at the end of long races but he’s simply chugged on past tiring losers while never looking to be going very strongly at all. He’s won five out of eleven at less than ten furlongs and finished like a train several times.

Off a break of just 26 days, and over a trip of a mile and a quarter, Tiago does seem a rather unlikely winner.





SUMMARY

The first thing that leaps off the page about this race is that it’s almost devoid of early speed. Fairbanks has been able to dominate small fields on dirt from the front but has never gained the early lead in a field bigger than seven.

The most likely scenario is that field go realy slow for the first six or seven furlongs then, Curlin kicks on as his jockey realises the problem, gets to the lead at the entrance to the straight and then desperately tries to hold off a mass of rivals sprinting to the line.

Few of these horses are likely to do well in such a sprint finish. HENRYTHENAVIGATOR however has shown that he thrives when they’re blasting eleven seconds a furlong in the closing stages. I think he’ll be able to pick up Curlin and hold off the rest.

beertapper
10-22-2008, 05:41 PM
<last part phew! - thanks again Nick>

PRO-RIDE: WHAT TYPE OF HORSE DOES IT FAVOUR?

When Nad Al Sheba’s dirt course was first opened in Dubai the vast majority of the runners were ex-European turf horses that were bred for nothing but grass. Some of them built up terrific records on the new surface when they raced against each other. But the times they clocked were all slow. Whenever they ended up racing against proper high class dirt horses they got hammered.

Right now in California there seems to be a parallel to this situation They’ve had nothing but ’All Weather’ or turf racing at all the major courses for so long and the circuit is so isolated it’s hard to tell which horses would be best suited by dirt if they had the chance to run on it. But the same high proportion of them were bred for dirt as in the old days. And the times they are clocking on the new Pro-Ride surface are significantly slower as judged by speed ratings. None of them have come with ten points on the Beyer scale (five lengths per mile) of what you’d normally expect of a top Grade 1 performer on dirt.

Could it be that we’re going to see some huge upset results in the Breeders’ Cup races run on the new Pro-Ride All Weather surface as horses built and bred for dirt finally face proper high class All Weather horses? That’s the intriguing possibility we face as several top class European turf horses ship in to run on a Californian All Weather track for the first time.

The decision you have to make is whether turf horses are better suited to the Pro-Ride surface than the local dirt-bred variety.

Unfortunately it is very hard to find decent statistics in America that would help us answer the question. This is because there is no searchable database that you can address such questions to. (How American punters manage without such a tool that’s considered a basic necessity elsewhere is beyond me).

The best statistics I’ve seen are the following that I found at www.equineline.com (http://www.equineline.com/):



All Weather runners USA

Runs Wins %

Last run turf 2,426 298 12.28

Last run All Weather 16,189 1,968 12.16%

Last run dirt 8,331 854 10.25%

As you can see the stats suggest that turf runners tend to make a successful transition to All Weather tracks more often than dirt runners.

This is not news to those of us familiar with Polytrack racing in Britain. I wrote about this very thing a couple of years ago (see article below).

The other useful research I’ve seen was carried by Daily Racing Form a while ago. It showed that their Moss pace rating for the early stages of races was six points lower for races run on synthetic surfaces than it was for dirt contests. In other words horses go roughly 1.2 seconds per mile slower for the first two thirds of the race.

Naturally this enables them to accelerate towards the finish. The three Grade 1 races run on Pro-Ride to date produced final furlongs ranging between 11.8 and 12.2 seconds. The average was 12 seconds, exactly the same as the average final furlong for the most recent ten dirt Grade 1 races run in America - and a full second quicker than the average for the last ten American Grade 1’s run on dirt.

I think it is the slower early pace and sprint finishes which tend to prevail on All Weather surfaces that dictate the kind of horses that win on them. Basically any horse can ‘act’ on the All Weather. They will all be able to run to within three or four lengths of the form they’ve shown on other surfaces. What makes the difference between winning and finishing close up is their ability to accelerate. If they can quickly transition from running 13 seconds a furlong to 11.8 they can win. If they take a while to get into full stride they will lose.

This is where we hit a brick wall in the data. Sectional times are only taken every furlong at most. So there’s no way of knowing just how rapidly each horse can accelerate. There are a couple of sectional timing systems out there using radio transponders which could provide acceleration rates. But they’re only in use at a few tracks, and the system isn’t used to provide acceleration rates at any of them.

The only thing we can do to figure out how quickly a horse can accelerate is to watch the videos of its races.

The easiest example is of Curlin, likely favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Watch the videos of his races and you’ll see that he takes a painfully long time to get rolling. He’s like a runaway steamroller when he’s finally in full stride. But it takes him a long time to get to that point.

The only time Curlin has posted a final furlong better than 12.5 seconds came in the Man O’War Stakes in his sole try on turf. There his lack of push-button acceleration was obvious. Even Red Rocks, a horse hardly renowned for his finishing kick, was able to edge away from him in the closing stages.

Unfortunately, though it would be nice to be able to be definite and simply toss horses like Curlin off the shortlist of contenders in races run on the All Weather, you can’t. About one race in five on the All Weather features a strong enough early pace to suit a traditional dirt performer. Look up the record of Student Council and you’ll see what I mean. He won a Grade 1 on the All Weather when the early pace was strong enough to produce a final quarter mile of 26.4 seconds. But he’s looked nothing like as good in all his other AW starts which have produced the normal sprint finish.

Luckily most of the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup races have tried artificial surfaces already. The main ones that haven’t are the Europeans. And many of them have run in slow run turf races in Europe. So we can use those to see how well they can cope with an accelerating pace.





POLYTRACK SUITS GRASS HORSES

South Africa's biggest race, the July Handicap at Greyville, is run at a time of year when the grass tends to be dried out and brown. So the track management at Greyville came up with the clever idea of spraying green dye on the course to make it look more attractive for the TV cameras.

I think Lingfield and Wolverhampton should follow Greyville's example and buy a few thousand gallons of green dye for their Polytrack courses. Then punters would get the message that there's basically no difference between Polytrack and grass.

I've long suspected that Polytrack favours turf horses rather than normal AW or dirt runners. Now I've produced some research which seems to validate this idea. But before I present the research I think I'd better explain just why Polytrack should behave more like turf than a traditional dirt or 'All Weather' surface.

The answer is to be found in the research carried out around ten years ago by Professor George Pratt of the Massacheussets Institute of Technology. Pratt is the world's top expert on equine gait analysis and racing surfaces.

Pratt found that there were clear differences between the physical properties of dirt/AW and grass surfaces. By far the most important of these was the disparity in shear resistance.

When a horse pushes with its back legs against grass almost all of its effort is translated into forward speed. This is because the surface is held together by grass roots. But when it pushes back against dirt or an AW surface some of the surface slides away from the horse's hooves and produces 'kickback' - clouds of sand thrown up behind it.

Normal dirt and AW surfaces provide only about 10% of the shear resistance of grass and produce plenty of 'kickback'. However, the most striking feature of Polytrack is that it produces almost no kickback at all. This implies that it has far greater shear resistance than normal dirt or AW surfaces. In other words it provides a much more secure footing - similar to grass.

The more slippery nature of dirt means that it tends to favour horses with shorter strides and a lower centre of gravity. You can get some idea of this from a survey I once carried out of all the horses running at a Breeders' Cup meeting. I noted down my estimate of the height and weight of each runner and found that the average dirt runner was about an inch shorter and 50 pounds heavier than the average turf runner that ran the same sort of distance. This makes perfect sense when you think of how you yourself would run, or more likely walk, across a slippery surface. You'd take shorter strides and be very careful about maintaining your balance - something that would be easier if you were shorter and had a lower centre of gravity.

If you regularly visit the paddock before races you'll probably already know where I'm heading with this. You'll know that the top sires really do seem to 'stamp their stock' with a very particular look. Indeed, it doesn't take much practice before you can actually recognise the progeny of certain sires without needing to look up their pedigrees. The four most notable sires in this regard are Diesis, Storm Cat, A P Indy and Danzig. It's hard to mistake one of their offspring.

Some sires tend to produce compact horses with shorter strides and a lower centre of gravity than average. Their progeny invariably prefer dirt. Sires that produce taller, ganglier, longer-striding horses have a far better record with their turf runners.

With this in mind I set my copy of Raceform Interactive to identify the top sires on grass, Polytrack, Equitrack and Fibresand over the last decade. I combined the Equitrack and Fibresand results because I figured they are similar to each other in that they produce kickback like normal dirt tracks do. To qualify for consideration I decided a sire's progeny must have scored at least 20 times in 2005 and had more than one winner on a particular surface in the last decade. Here's how the results panned out;

GRASS Wins Runs %

1 Giant's Causeway 55 264 20.8%

2 King's Best 55 347 15.9%

3 Montjeu 44 284 15.5%

4 Cape Cross 117 769 15.2%

5 Sadler's Wells 428 2869 14.9%

6 Machiavellian 310 2113 14.7%

7 Halling 137 1022 13.4%

8 Selkirk 327 2474 13.2%

9 Green Desert 406 3152 12.9%

10 Zafonic 252 1958 12.9%

11 Danehill 421 3351 12.6%

12 Singspiel 95 764 12.4%

13 Namid 47 378 12.4%

14 Unfuwain 250 2034 12.3%

15 In The Wings 178 1442 12.3%

16 Cadeaux Genereux 445 3722 12.0%

17 Pivotal 213 1772 12.0%

18 Danehill Dancer 183 1549 11.8%

19 Tagula 181 1619 11.2%

20 Indian Ridge 411 3698 11.1%







POLYTRACK

1 Giant's Causeway 8 32 25.0%

2 King's Best 6 37 16.2%

3 Montjeu 7 47 14.9%

4 Selkirk 29 197 14.7%

5 Green Desert 39 271 14.4%

6 Spectrum 41 315 13.0%

7 Singspiel 15 120 12.5%

8 Grand Lodge 45 369 12.2%

9 Danehill 35 295 11.9%

10 Pivotal 33 282 11.7%

11 Desert Prince 18 164 11.0%

12 Cape Cross 14 128 10.9%

13 Cadeaux Genereux 44 407 10.8%

14 Halling 15 139 10.8%

15 Efisio 38 356 10.7%

16 Indian Ridge 27 252 10.7%

17 Namid 9 85 10.6%

18 Dansili 13 124 10.5%

19 Sadler's Wells 16 156 10.3%

20 Mark Of Esteem 29 287 10.1%







EQUITRACK/FIBRESAND

1 Fasliyev 13 54 24.1%

2 Dansili 5 24 20.8%

3 Halling 8 44 18.2%

4 Barathea 33 203 16.3%

5 Desert Prince 11 70 15.7%

6 Orpen 20 129 15.5%

7 Machiavellian 42 276 15.2%

8 Danehill 46 309 14.9%

9 Grand Lodge 31 228 13.6%

10 Unfuwain 28 207 13.5%

11 Efisio 167 1282 13.0%

12 Pivotal 24 187 12.8%

13 Zafonic 18 145 12.4%

14 Piccolo 70 569 12.3%

15 Selkirk 27 229 11.8%

16 Vettori 19 162 11.7%

17 Fraam 21 183 11.5%

18 Mark Of Esteem 18 157 11.5%

19 Cape Cross 7 61 11.5%

20 Tagula 25 221 11.3%

The first thing that leaps off the page from these statistics is that the top three sires on grass are also the top three sires on Polytrack - and that none of these three sires feature in the top twenty on Equitrack/Fibresand. In addition, ten of the top 12 grass sires are in the top 12 on Polytrack. But only two of them are in the top 12 on Equitrack/Fibresand.

Clearly there is a very strong correlation between grass and Polytrack. If a horse is bred for grass it's also bred to act on the Polytrack. But it's almost certainly not bred to be anything like as effective on Equitrrack or Fibresand.

Taking another tack, I then checked to see how the top 20 sires in America did when their progeny ran in Britain. (The top US sires are basically dirt sires since that is the surface most often used over there.) Again I divided the results up into the three types of surfaces. Here are the results;

Top 20 US sires in Britain

Grass 335 3329 10.1%

Polytrack 39 312 12.5%

Equitrack/Fibresand 97 567 17.1%

As you can see the horses by the American dirt sires did poorly on grass and Polytrack but won so often on Equitrack and Fibresand that you'd have made a 24% profit betting them all. I should note here that they won slightly more often on Polytrack than grass simply because field sizes are smaller for Polytrack races.

I tested several more ideas. For example I found that last year 28 of the 129 grass winners that ran on Polytrack next time out won again. However only one of the 21 grass winners that switched to Fibresand scored again (Equitrack is of course no longer used). Another idea involved identifying horses that earned huge Raceform handicap ratings on the AW - 112 or more. Horses that did this on the Polytrack won six times out of 33 in their next three outings on grass. You'd have made a 40% profit betting them all. But the Fibresand and Equitrack runners that earned Raceform handicap ratings this big only won two times out of 20 in their next three grass outings. You'd have lost 50% of your money betting them.

Basically every idea I tested suggested that grass and Polytrack are interchangeable. If a horse acts on one surface it will act on another.

This is more than simply an interesting item of information for UK punters. Recently it was announced that all of the dirt tracks in California are to be converted to Polytrack. This follows developments in Kentucky where Turfway Park converted to a Polytrack and Keeneland announced their intention to follow suit.

The US stampede towards Polytrack is fantastic news for European horse-racing and breeding. It means that our top horses will now be able to contest the top American races and enjoy a major edge over the local runners instead of vice versa as in the past. It also means that the American thoroughbred breeding industry is likely to collapse as more and more of their tracks convert to Polytrack. Their top stallions and broodmares produce horses that are best on dirt. Their progeny are going to face real problems competing against European horses that are bred for grass and Polytrack.

Imagine a Breeders' Cup meeting run on Polytrack and grass. The European runners would probably win every race. I can hardly wait.

point given
10-22-2008, 06:59 PM
Thank you , thank you !!! Nick Mordini and Beertapper ! How very generous of you to make this available .

This is good stuff. It will take a while to digest it all and then filter it down. I already printed the pps and handicapped the Friday card, so that portion was easily digestable. Now , I have the main course to digest and read.

Beertapper, you've gone over and beyond and it is really appreciated here. I owe you a beer or two or three :jump:

cnollfan
10-23-2008, 07:36 AM
Thanks. Very much appreciate these comments on the Euros!

The one that is counter-intuitive to me is Goldiklova. She has won three races in a row at one mile but Nick says it is the wrong distance. Thoughts?

Niko
10-23-2008, 11:08 PM
Thanks, interesting comments. Curlin seems a bit vulnerable to me also--but who to go to? Interesting observations on the muscle, weight and stride. It would be great to have a picture of all the horses with the new steroid rules.

LottaKash
10-23-2008, 11:33 PM
Wow 34-pages, THX BEERTAPPER....Nice to have a solid opinion and report on all the contestants for the BC

..........GREAT.....!!!!!!!!

best.