InControlX
10-16-2008, 10:21 AM
MOAHP is an experimental multirace preparation pattern based optimum pick program. Here's the results after one week of posted selections...
RESULTS: 13 Winners of 40 for 32.5% Winning Percentage
Average Winning Payoff = $12.33
Average Winning Odds = 5:1
ROI = 200%
DATE TRK, RACE, MOAHP WIN PICK, FIN POS/ $WIN on $2
Oct 9
CT 9 Just Wild 1 / 16.30
OSA 1 Judy Patootie 1 / 8.40
OSA 5 Drewthegentlemen 3/ 0
Oct 10
BEL 6 Five Cases 2/ 0
BEL 7 Brahminical 4 / 0
BEL 8 Sea Chanter 1 / 5.10
GG 6 Inferno Lago 8 / 0
HAW 2 Salt Miner 5 / 0
HAW 4 Beau Jaques 3 / 0
PNL 7 Bobbi Sable 6 / 0
WO 9 Fortynine Express 12 / 0
Oct 11
FL 1 No More Chances 2 / 0
FL 4 Charity Fight 1 / 3.40
MNR 6 Knockout Rose* 9 / 0
MNR 7 Cents of Humor* 5 / 0
OSA 2 Jamie 4 / 0
OSA 3 Ford Island 1 / 33.20
PNL 7 Baird’s Village 1 / 22.60
TDN 2 Shame of Defeat 3 / 0
TDN 5 Me Big Boy 1 / 4.20
TUP 9 No Name Just Game 4 / 0
Oct 12
CT 7 No Means Maybe scratched
MNR 10 Gotitgoin 1 / 7.20
OSA 8 Informed 8 / 0
OSA 9 Blackestofbeauties 8 / 0
PHA 8 Oopers Here 6 / 0
Oct 13
CRC 9 Jenny Cat* 1-off /4.20-off
FE 5 Bold Corredor 5 / 0
HAW 2 Lucky Lisa 3 / 0
HAW 5 Worththebother 3 / 0
LRL 2 Grosso 7 / 0
MED 6 Angel Veloz 1 / 34.80
MNR 4 Quick Trend scratched
OSA 5 Wheaton Hall 1 / 11.60
PHA 8 Hailie’s Girl 6 / 0
TDN 9 Winblaiseandshow 5 / 0
Oct 14 PM 3 Lightning Johnny 1 / 5.20
PM 5 Nippin At Dawn 3 / 0
TUP 2 Just Like Heaven 1 / 4.20
Oct 15 GG 3 Smokinjomoko 2 / 0
HOO 3 Funny Its Easy 4 / 0
HOO 8 Go Gert Go 1 / 4.00
KEE 3 Crawford County scratched
TUP 8 Fancy for Ghazi 6 / 0
NOTES:
Knockout Rose and Sense of Humor were not entered correctly in the original PA Selections (Oct 11 MNR). With blurry eyes, I surgically combined the two horses in a beauty of a typo into “Knockout Humor”. In any case, they are both shown as losses… no red boarding here! Also, the Oct 13 win by Jenny Cat (CRC 9th) has not been included in the results calculation because the track was “sealed” and not “fast”. All MOAHP picks are for fast or firm tracks to decrease chaos.
I was sad to see Quick Trend (Oct 13 MNR 4) scratched in the gate. The poor gelding was so anxious to start he tried to crawl out under the gate door. He was 40:1 when scratched.
How does it pick? MOAHP calculates pace, purse, distance, surface and condition matrix values for entries over a multi-race prep. The optimum preparation patterns over the past year are determined, then the parsed entry files have the generated PPs scanned for the best patterns. The process uses no hunches or pre-conceived spot plays. In the past week I included all the hits from sixteen patterns and did not edit or remove any manually.
What’s next? I’m hesitant to change too much, but some “sensibility tweaks” will be made to improve the program. Like the 2-Yr. old races where an entry has a decent prep pattern but I’ve got zilch on the rest of the field. I won’t remove the low odds picks (MOAHP does not look at nor consider ML) because sometimes a 5:2 ML chalk goes off at 3:1, besides, the average price looks good as is.
What’s for sale? Nothing now. I can’t sell the program because it needs an extensive database to operate on, which is generated (painfully) from annual chart subscriptions (not somebody else’s PPs). There are too many manual steps to handle the support calls and I don’t want to step on DRF/Equibase’s toes over the data rights. A daily MOAHP picks sheet available for modest cost on a website is a possibility if PA feedback is positive, but I’m not sure it wouldn’t be lost in all the hoopla. Maybe I’ll just toss a few into PA Selections again from time to time.
ICX
RESULTS: 13 Winners of 40 for 32.5% Winning Percentage
Average Winning Payoff = $12.33
Average Winning Odds = 5:1
ROI = 200%
DATE TRK, RACE, MOAHP WIN PICK, FIN POS/ $WIN on $2
Oct 9
CT 9 Just Wild 1 / 16.30
OSA 1 Judy Patootie 1 / 8.40
OSA 5 Drewthegentlemen 3/ 0
Oct 10
BEL 6 Five Cases 2/ 0
BEL 7 Brahminical 4 / 0
BEL 8 Sea Chanter 1 / 5.10
GG 6 Inferno Lago 8 / 0
HAW 2 Salt Miner 5 / 0
HAW 4 Beau Jaques 3 / 0
PNL 7 Bobbi Sable 6 / 0
WO 9 Fortynine Express 12 / 0
Oct 11
FL 1 No More Chances 2 / 0
FL 4 Charity Fight 1 / 3.40
MNR 6 Knockout Rose* 9 / 0
MNR 7 Cents of Humor* 5 / 0
OSA 2 Jamie 4 / 0
OSA 3 Ford Island 1 / 33.20
PNL 7 Baird’s Village 1 / 22.60
TDN 2 Shame of Defeat 3 / 0
TDN 5 Me Big Boy 1 / 4.20
TUP 9 No Name Just Game 4 / 0
Oct 12
CT 7 No Means Maybe scratched
MNR 10 Gotitgoin 1 / 7.20
OSA 8 Informed 8 / 0
OSA 9 Blackestofbeauties 8 / 0
PHA 8 Oopers Here 6 / 0
Oct 13
CRC 9 Jenny Cat* 1-off /4.20-off
FE 5 Bold Corredor 5 / 0
HAW 2 Lucky Lisa 3 / 0
HAW 5 Worththebother 3 / 0
LRL 2 Grosso 7 / 0
MED 6 Angel Veloz 1 / 34.80
MNR 4 Quick Trend scratched
OSA 5 Wheaton Hall 1 / 11.60
PHA 8 Hailie’s Girl 6 / 0
TDN 9 Winblaiseandshow 5 / 0
Oct 14 PM 3 Lightning Johnny 1 / 5.20
PM 5 Nippin At Dawn 3 / 0
TUP 2 Just Like Heaven 1 / 4.20
Oct 15 GG 3 Smokinjomoko 2 / 0
HOO 3 Funny Its Easy 4 / 0
HOO 8 Go Gert Go 1 / 4.00
KEE 3 Crawford County scratched
TUP 8 Fancy for Ghazi 6 / 0
NOTES:
Knockout Rose and Sense of Humor were not entered correctly in the original PA Selections (Oct 11 MNR). With blurry eyes, I surgically combined the two horses in a beauty of a typo into “Knockout Humor”. In any case, they are both shown as losses… no red boarding here! Also, the Oct 13 win by Jenny Cat (CRC 9th) has not been included in the results calculation because the track was “sealed” and not “fast”. All MOAHP picks are for fast or firm tracks to decrease chaos.
I was sad to see Quick Trend (Oct 13 MNR 4) scratched in the gate. The poor gelding was so anxious to start he tried to crawl out under the gate door. He was 40:1 when scratched.
How does it pick? MOAHP calculates pace, purse, distance, surface and condition matrix values for entries over a multi-race prep. The optimum preparation patterns over the past year are determined, then the parsed entry files have the generated PPs scanned for the best patterns. The process uses no hunches or pre-conceived spot plays. In the past week I included all the hits from sixteen patterns and did not edit or remove any manually.
What’s next? I’m hesitant to change too much, but some “sensibility tweaks” will be made to improve the program. Like the 2-Yr. old races where an entry has a decent prep pattern but I’ve got zilch on the rest of the field. I won’t remove the low odds picks (MOAHP does not look at nor consider ML) because sometimes a 5:2 ML chalk goes off at 3:1, besides, the average price looks good as is.
What’s for sale? Nothing now. I can’t sell the program because it needs an extensive database to operate on, which is generated (painfully) from annual chart subscriptions (not somebody else’s PPs). There are too many manual steps to handle the support calls and I don’t want to step on DRF/Equibase’s toes over the data rights. A daily MOAHP picks sheet available for modest cost on a website is a possibility if PA feedback is positive, but I’m not sure it wouldn’t be lost in all the hoopla. Maybe I’ll just toss a few into PA Selections again from time to time.
ICX