Why can't horse racing thrive today?

[Track Phantom]

There have been lots of talk about what appeal horse racing has or could have to the mainstream public. Many give low marks to the industry in attracting more non horseplayers to this game.

In my opinion, there is one reason alone that keeps non horseplayers from crossing over: You cannot win at the game!

The game is so heavily burdened by takeout and other "hidden" costs (ie, pay for information (pp's), pay to play, pay to get in, pay for race replays, on and on), that it could be argued that it is mathematically impossible to come out ahead save for hitting a big score (pick 6 or other).

There will be many horseplayers quick to refute the "can't win" scenario but they have their own agenda for doing so. They cannot continue to play with an agreement that the game can't be beat.

My feeling is until the takeout is reduced to a competitive level (10%) and the cost to gather information is seriously dropped, the game will have to live with the smallish, core group of players that currently fund it.

[boomman]

There have been lots of talk about what appeal horse racing has or could have to the mainstream public. Many give low marks to the industry in attracting more non horseplayers to this game.

In my opinion, there is one reason alone that keeps non horseplayers from crossing over: You cannot win at the game!

The game is so heavily burdened by takeout and other "hidden" costs (ie, pay for information (pp's), pay to play, pay to get in, pay for race replays, on and on), that it could be argued that it is mathematically impossible to come out ahead save for hitting a big score (pick 6 or other).

There will be many horseplayers quick to refute the "can't win" scenario but they have their own agenda for doing so. They cannot continue to play with an agreement that the game can't be beat.

My feeling is until the takeout is reduced to a competitive level (10%) and the cost to gather information is seriously dropped, the game will have to live with the smallish, core group of players that currently fund it.

Valento: I agree with you on several points and even partially titled one of my books that only 2% of all folks actually win at our "game". (In fact many argue that the number is considerably lower than that, and it very well could be)...We have an opportunity to lower takeout on our own and that's via cash reward companies such as PTC. HANA has just received my donation, and I encourage everyone on this board to rally around their cause to overcome the horrible fracturing of signals by putting pressure on the tracks and horsemen groups to come together and fix this ridiculous situation. An entity denying access to it's customers??? We have become a laughing stock and can NEVER expect to draw new customers under the current business climate!:mad:

Boomer

[Robert Fischer]

mass media

[Imriledup]

Great post Valento, everything you said is true.

For the very few who actually win, there are thousands who do not.

The pricing model is extremely uncompetitive in 2008. The model assumes horseplayers are idiots who don't know any better. That might have worked many years ago when people had no other choices, but now there are too many other options. Until the higher ups in this game realize horseplayers are not idiots, they will still continue to struggle along while doing nothing to create a few generation of bettors.

I believe that in order to create new fans, you need the current fans (see customers) to totally believe in this game. The current customer has to be able to tell a non customer "hey, racing is a great game, its fun, exciting, a great entertainment option and you have a reasonable shot to win big" As of 2008, not one current fan is telling a non fan that this is the case.

An extremely high percentage of current fans were introduced to this game by someone who was already established. Same thing for the newbies, they are going to have to be brought into the game by a current customer/fan and that just isn't going to happen in the real world.

[Tom]

Racing does not know who it's customers are.
You can't win in a casino either, but they understand he word customer.

[lamboguy]

if you can win in a casino, you will get thrown out. i got bounced out of 17 different casino's in vegas betting house quinella's.

before that i got bounced from horse books in vegas, churhill downs, leroy's and the castaways for betting maiden first time starter races that they were booking before they took on parimutual.

i have a friend that had a $200 winning ticket on a horse race that the oriental palace refused to pay. it took him 5 months before the nevada gaming commision made the hotel pay.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There have been lots of talk about what appeal horse racing has or could have to the mainstream public. Many give low marks to the industry in attracting more non horseplayers to this game.

In my opinion, there is one reason alone that keeps non horseplayers from crossing over: You cannot win at the game!

The game is so heavily burdened by takeout and other "hidden" costs (ie, pay for information (pp's), pay to play, pay to get in, pay for race replays, on and on), that it could be argued that it is mathematically impossible to come out ahead save for hitting a big score (pick 6 or other).

There will be many horseplayers quick to refute the "can't win" scenario but they have their own agenda for doing so. They cannot continue to play with an agreement that the game can't be beat.

My feeling is until the takeout is reduced to a competitive level (10%) and the cost to gather information is seriously dropped, the game will have to live with the smallish, core group of players that currently fund it.

I think you are defeated before you walk in the door.You mention takeout and other costs right after you declare you cannot win the game.While I agree the hospitableness by tracks could be better,it sounds like the moan of a fresh loser!"I cannot win,here are the postemortem rationalizations....".

I think the appeal of the game speaks for itself unless you are completely dislocated from it.You're watching a pretty badass spectacle every 20 minutes and you can look at the participants before it happens.Don't sound like fun???Well looking at some ugly mugs at a card table and listening to them mouth off isn't much better either.And that is what most casinos are like.And if you are betting offtrack,it's within you own comfort zone.And the odds ARE better.There are no fixed odds and no fixed courses of action.YOU decide the acceptable odds before you bet.That in itself makes the game beatable.While good odds fall into a certain percentage of expectancy based on a fairly frequent amount of bets,the ROI is far offset than what it is for casino games.

On this website of technological Giants that bet way more significant sums than I do and have made the game far more easily interpretable than I have through that.I can say that I beat the game regularly.Not constantly,but often enough.And all I pay for are Racing Forms from my guy in the neighborhood.I get free race info from the DRF online,make my track profiles and race notes,transcribe them to the form,and use the information that experience and a library card has taught me.Most of the work til the last 2 weeks or so I have done on self designed spread sheets with a pen or pencil and calculator in hand.

Now.If myself.Who most would consider a hick living in a cave with my measly sums of bets and handwritten documents can beat this game!!!Surely you can do better,unless as with the rest of the world you want it handed to you on a silver platter!!!

I don't know,maybe it really is something that gets in your blood or it doesn't.I just love the game.

Here.I just cut this page from a notebook.You translate my $20.00 or thereabouts bets into your $200 or $2000 bets,but for my poverty stricken butt I'm proud of my last month's winnings;

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well I wasn't able to post the attachment because they said it was too large which I can't imagine since it came out of a standard 70 page notebook.Can anybody tell me how to scan and post something on here???I usually don't have any trouble if I email it to somebody.What's up??

[Track Phantom]

Great post Valento, everything you said is true.

For the very few who actually win, there are thousands who do not.

The pricing model is extremely uncompetitive in 2008. The model assumes horseplayers are idiots who don't know any better. That might have worked many years ago when people had no other choices, but now there are too many other options. Until the higher ups in this game realize horseplayers are not idiots, they will still continue to struggle along while doing nothing to create a few generation of bettors.

I believe that in order to create new fans, you need the current fans (see customers) to totally believe in this game. The current customer has to be able to tell a non customer "hey, racing is a great game, its fun, exciting, a great entertainment option and you have a reasonable shot to win big" As of 2008, not one current fan is telling a non fan that this is the case.

An extremely high percentage of current fans were introduced to this game by someone who was already established. Same thing for the newbies, they are going to have to be brought into the game by a current customer/fan and that just isn't going to happen in the real world.

Agree with your response. The current horseplayers supporting this game are suspect of it on many levels. Most would not seriously and honestly advocate for others to "dive in". That's a big problem.

[ddog]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=azK2p4vDi13U&refer=home

[Track Phantom]

I think you are defeated before you walk in the door.You mention takeout and other costs right after you declare you cannot win the game.While I agree the hospitableness by tracks could be better,it sounds like the moan of a fresh loser!"I cannot win,here are the postemortem rationalizations....".

I think the appeal of the game speaks for itself unless you are completely dislocated from it.You're watching a pretty badass spectacle every 20 minutes and you can look at the participants before it happens.Don't sound like fun???Well looking at some ugly mugs at a card table and listening to them mouth off isn't much better either.And that is what most casinos are like.And if you are betting offtrack,it's within you own comfort zone.And the odds ARE better.There are no fixed odds and no fixed courses of action.YOU decide the acceptable odds before you bet.That in itself makes the game beatable.While good odds fall into a certain percentage of expectancy based on a fairly frequent amount of bets,the ROI is far offset than what it is for casino games.

On this website of technological Giants that bet way more significant sums than I do and have made the game far more easily interpretable than I have through that.I can say that I beat the game regularly.Not constantly,but often enough.And all I pay for are Racing Forms from my guy in the neighborhood.I get free race info from the DRF online,make my track profiles and race notes,transcribe them to the form,and use the information that experience and a library card has taught me.Most of the work til the last 2 weeks or so I have done on self designed spread sheets with a pen or pencil and calculator in hand.

Now.If myself.Who most would consider a hick living in a cave with my measly sums of bets and handwritten documents can beat this game!!!Surely you can do better,unless as with the rest of the world you want it handed to you on a silver platter!!!

I don't know,maybe it really is something that gets in your blood or it doesn't.I just love the game.

Here.I just cut this page from a notebook.You translate my $20.00 or thereabouts bets into your $200 or $2000 bets,but for my poverty stricken butt I'm proud of my last month's winnings;

Herein lies the issue. You've spent many minutes and words trying to convince us how you beat the game regularly. Imagine a non horseplayer realizing they have to transibe, cut and paste from a notebook, create self designed spreadsheets, etc in order to be able to win. Doesn't sound too appealing, especially to those of us that have a full time job and other responsibilities.

I love horse racing and love the intellectual challenge. However, my brain power, efforts, time and knowledge gets me a moderate edge over many players which is easily eliminated by the high takeout and rampant cheating.

Even though I believe the game is virtually impossible to beat in the current parameters, I wouldn't say it isn't a appealing. A lot is to be said for entertainment money and I see clear entertainment value. However, as far as a pure gambling endeavor, it is stacked tremendously against the players. If you, or anyone else, can make a consistent and sustained profit in this environment, you're better than 99.5% and I applaud you and your notebook transcibes.

[cmoore]

I think you are defeated before you walk in the door.You mention takeout and other costs right after you declare you cannot win the game.While I agree the hospitableness by tracks could be better,it sounds like the moan of a fresh loser!"I cannot win,here are the postemortem rationalizations....".

I think the appeal of the game speaks for itself unless you are completely dislocated from it.You're watching a pretty badass spectacle every 20 minutes and you can look at the participants before it happens.Don't sound like fun???Well looking at some ugly mugs at a card table and listening to them mouth off isn't much better either.And that is what most casinos are like.And if you are betting offtrack,it's within you own comfort zone.And the odds ARE better.There are no fixed odds and no fixed courses of action.YOU decide the acceptable odds before you bet.That in itself makes the game beatable.While good odds fall into a certain percentage of expectancy based on a fairly frequent amount of bets,the ROI is far offset than what it is for casino games.

On this website of technological Giants that bet way more significant sums than I do and have made the game far more easily interpretable than I have through that.I can say that I beat the game regularly.Not constantly,but often enough.And all I pay for are Racing Forms from my guy in the neighborhood.I get free race info from the DRF online,make my track profiles and race notes,transcribe them to the form,and use the information that experience and a library card has taught me.Most of the work til the last 2 weeks or so I have done on self designed spread sheets with a pen or pencil and calculator in hand.

Now.If myself.Who most would consider a hick living in a cave with my measly sums of bets and handwritten documents can beat this game!!!Surely you can do better,unless as with the rest of the world you want it handed to you on a silver platter!!!

I don't know,maybe it really is something that gets in your blood or it doesn't.I just love the game.

Here.I just cut this page from a notebook.You translate my $20.00 or thereabouts bets into your $200 or $2000 bets,but for my poverty stricken butt I'm proud of my last month's winnings
;

Great Post Cincy....Who you like tomorrow???

[CincyHorseplayer]

Herein lies the issue. You've spent many minutes and words trying to convince us how you beat the game regularly. Imagine a non horseplayer realizing they have to transibe, cut and paste from a notebook, create self designed spreadsheets, etc in order to be able to win. Doesn't sound too appealing, especially to those of us that have a full time job and other responsibilities.

I love horse racing and love the intellectual challenge. However, my brain power, efforts, time and knowledge gets me a moderate edge over many players which is easily eliminated by the high takeout and rampant cheating.

Even though I believe the game is virtually impossible to beat in the current parameters, I wouldn't say it isn't a appealing. A lot is to be said for entertainment money and I see clear entertainment value. However, as far as a pure gambling endeavor, it is stacked tremendously against the players. If you, or anyone else, can make a consistent and sustained profit in this environment, you're better than 99.5% and I applaud you and your notebook transcibes.

Herein lies the issue.You've spent many minutes and many words trying to convince people that the game,while out of reach for you,is out of reach for everyone on the face of the planet.The question is.....What the hell do you want??????

Obviously it is to do nothing and profit.What game are you comparing to,to have an accurate comparison???

And you sure as hell underestimate this gambling generation.I know a ton of kids willing to learn the ins and outs of cards,which takes way more money to beat the less odds than horseracing.They ARE converting because it is a beatable game with less on the line to make just as much.I work and have a fulltime job and I am about to say F-that to it because it isn't worth the effort that racing is,without being taxing to the soul!

The game itself needs to be more respective to who makes it.But please man,you are the worst advocate of it;you are a loser,self admitted, and this is what your post is about.This is not what we strive for here....

I might not be qualified to make that statement.But I love the game.I love this board.And I win.So I feel I'm just advancing a winning philosophy that isn't just hypothesis...

[Cangamble]

Cincy, a few questions.
First, do you receive rebates? If not, why not?
Secondly, do you keep records of your play, and if you do, how much have you won or lost each year by year for the last five years?

[jonnielu]

Great post Valento, everything you said is true.

For the very few who actually win, there are thousands who do not.

The pricing model is extremely uncompetitive in 2008. The model assumes horseplayers are idiots who don't know any better. That might have worked many years ago when people had no other choices, but now there are too many other options. Until the higher ups in this game realize horseplayers are not idiots, they will still continue to struggle along while doing nothing to create a few generation of bettors.

I believe that in order to create new fans, you need the current fans (see customers) to totally believe in this game. The current customer has to be able to tell a non customer "hey, racing is a great game, its fun, exciting, a great entertainment option and you have a reasonable shot to win big" As of 2008, not one current fan is telling a non fan that this is the case.

An extremely high percentage of current fans were introduced to this game by someone who was already established. Same thing for the newbies, they are going to have to be brought into the game by a current customer/fan and that just isn't going to happen in the real world.

The prospective fan sees that the perspective of the handicapper provides few winners. And, the handicapper makes this obvious everytime that he pronounces "you can't beat the races".

At least he has managed to teach the prospective fan that you can't win with a handicapping perspective, so the prospect will stay outside until he is offered a working perspective that is more in line with the realities of horse racing.

The game has passed conventional handicapping by, the prospective fan needs a method from which he/she can learn something about horseracing. They can see that 100 years of conventional handicapping has taught little to those that have been doing most of it.

jdl

[Tom]

I doubt that has thing one to do with racing's lack of popularity.
Most people never even make it to conventional handicapping.

[BUD]

I think I know a great deal on this side of the subject...Being that I am new---I made it past ALL the roadblocks put up by the industry.....My excitement boiled, over a few friends attempted to pick up the game.....They stopped at the roadblocks.......

How did I get by the road blocks? Well A few people gave me a helping hand Boomer being one, another person whom used to post here being second and very significant in my day to day handicapping....Also being injured--Ill- I had nothing else to do.

But honestly until things change do not expect many fresh newbies......Just maybe some math guys from MIT or WPI but not much from the common folk.......

I am almost afraid to say this but most newbies need a Mentors in this game.....

If The road blocks eat the Newbie per se..Then he gets a .25 cent wager fee plus his inexperience.....He just crapped out of the game real fast not to return.

I have more but I am not really up to posting...Not feeling great.....I hope these few sentences make some sense from my POV.
Thanks

[Charlie D]

A fan of NFL, UK racing and US racing

Here is fan's choice,

Fan can go to NFL.com, Racingpost.co.uk, DRF.com and get ALL the info fan needs to handicap

The info from the former two is free, the latter fan pays for, Fan reckons the integrity of the former two is better than the lattter, Fan is not restricted betting on former two, but is on latter


Which is more attractive to fan???

[MONEY]

Horse Racing's lack of popularity has nothing to do with winning or losing. Hundreds of millions of people frequent the casinos every year and lose 100s of billions of dollars. In horse racing there are no bright lights, advertising or promises of the possibility of instant riches, and the only time horse racing makes the news is when there is another scandal or tragedy.
Casinos have bright lights and a screen over the slot machines showing the millions of dollars that you might win with your next pull on a lever. Every few seconds you have a chance to be rich. Even poker as boring as it is, is shown on television with the players playing for hugh payoffs.
Also we live in an instant gratification generation. We complain that 70 miles an hour is not fast enough. We go crazy when our computers don't instantly download a page. We carry cell phones because we have say it now, it can't wait till we get home.
Basically we want everything yesterday.
Horse Racing is a grind and will never be able to compete with our now mentality.

money

[Charlie D]

Does Casino, Lottery, Poker player read much about Casino, Lottery runner being banned for violating the rules


No


The perception is, these games are run honestly, so therefore it is attractive to the people interested in playing these games

[Charli125]

I am almost afraid to say this but most newbies need a Mentors in this game.....


I couldn't agree more. Learning this game is almost impossible without a good mentor. I don't have a mentor, and I honestly believe that it's set me back a long ways. This message board has been a huge help in lieu of a mentor, but there's nothing better than sitting down with someone at the track who knows more than you, and learning why all of your preconceived notions are wrong.

[Cangamble]

I couldn't agree more. Learning this game is almost impossible without a good mentor. I don't have a mentor, and I honestly believe that it's set me back a long ways. This message board has been a huge help in lieu of a mentor, but there's nothing better than sitting down with someone at the track who knows more than you, and learning why all of your preconceived notions are wrong.
I used to be a mentor. I introduced and helped many friends and friends of friends back in the early 80's to late 80's especially.
But then Beyer figures started appearing in the form and then slots took the dummy money out.

I think it should be a criminal offense (like drug pushing) for anyone to introduce someone to the game as a bettor today:)

[thruncy]

The "Now" generation is now--many either from the '60s or descendants of those thereof--is now discovering that those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it. They can't say they weren't warned...by accountants, no less. I'll miss the greedy, ignorant rascals...so will the actor in the pig suit. He's looking for a new role. That's showbizz--Yethirr!!:lol:

[Charlie D]

There is still "dummy" money about , but just not as much as there should be for a variety of reasons

[BUD]

I couldn't agree more. Learning this game is almost impossible without a good mentor. I don't have a mentor, and I honestly believe that it's set me back a long ways. This message board has been a huge help in lieu of a mentor, but there's nothing better than sitting down with someone at the track who knows more than you, and learning why all of your preconceived notions are wrong.

Absolutely........I am sure now someone will throw out a life saver and give you a hand.
.................................................. ....................

I wager on sports...And NEVER once had to Pay for information...A box score anything like that.........

The DRF for instance...Its a freekin' crap shoot if it arrives.....

To think losing wont affect a newbie at this game is unfortunate....After you shop around-maybe drive to every convenience store--Call the DRF itself---There no help they did not know who even carried it in my area.....My confidence was waning...... Then All the other fees it takes in this game....Plus time.....Then crap out quick......Ok---Yes losing after all that has its effect.....I could lose my money with less inconvenience in other ways.........

Don't forget a Newbie may be a Newbie due to TVG....Now They at the time had the .25 cent per wager....Then they wanted something like 19.95 per month to eradicate the wager fee.........How can that be a recipe for a new kid to be successful.....Again, why go thru all the trouble to lose your cash.....You have no idea what a maze it is for someone new to get successfully started......

If you want to keep this a isolated fringe game keep things the way they are...

Yes maybe I'm wrong....Maybe I am the exception?..But I don't think so.

[Robert Fischer]

masses of people do whatever is on the TV

[Charlie D]

Like many others in UK i'm watching racing via ATR

Great Leighs 10f race

£400k traded before off on BF


Keenland 12f race

£24k traded before off on BF



These are very similar, so why is one so much more popular with UK bettors than the other

Could it be that good free info is availbe for the UK race, could it be they percieve that US racing is behind UK racing in the integrity stakes

[Bubba X]

5. No stars. Early retirements, no rivalries. Maybe the downturn in the breeding market will change that.

4. Slot machines. Slot fueled purses at Philly, PID and DelPark are nice for owners and I don't blame them for making money where they can but these tracks are unplayable due to pool size and/or takeout so all they do imo is rob real race tracks of decent horses which makes those tracks less attractive.

3. Too many race tracks running too many cheap races. While trainers and jockeys earn income on these races, they are very negative expectation, ownership-wise.

2. Takeout. High takeout drives bettors to rebate shops and very few are parimutuel, especially with respect to major tracks. Long run, it is not a good thing for racing to have wagering dollars not go through the tote.

1. Simulcast deals. Pretty much everything wrong with racing can arguably be traced back to when simulcasting started. The premise was that simulcasting would generate no-cost, additional handle to host tracks and revenue splits provided the host track just 20% of simulcast handle. Those splits remain pretty much the same today and it's just ludicrous. There is no way it makes sense for a small-time harness, tbred or dog track to keep 75-80% of revenue on races from major race tracks. The only thing this has accomplished is to allow these small tracks to survive when they otherwise couldn't, thus perpetuating too many tracks running too many cheap races.

[cj]

Like many others in UK i'm watching racing via ATR

Great Leighs 10f race

£400k traded before off on BF


Keenland 12f race

£24k traded before off on BF



These are very similar, so why is one so much more popular with UK bettors than the other

Could it be that good free info is availbe for the UK race, could it be they percieve that US racing is behind UK racing in the integrity stakes

It is most likely because people bet what they are familiar with. The data in the UK is lightyears behind what we have in the US.

[Charlie D]

CJ

They are watching same as me, but not betting on same as me and i think this is partly due to free info being available and their peception that US racing is a drug riddlled sport

I've flagged up some good US races on BF horse racing forum and got replies like drug cheats, chemical racing

How can a sport or whatever expect to attract people to bet when it is seen like that

[Charlie D]

The data in the UK is lightyears behind what we have in the US.

The only thing US racing has that is lightyears ahead of UK racing is sectional time data

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy, a few questions.
First, do you receive rebates? If not, why not?
Secondly, do you keep records of your play, and if you do, how much have you won or lost each year by year for the last five years?

Ok here's where you're ready to rip me a new one because I don't have 2 lifetimes of stats based on projections or I'm about to die because I'm 90 yrs old and have a lifetime of track experience.Many don't have the luxury of 3,000 sample bets to project how we are going to do at the track.I just go and let it fall.Put my money through.Til last year I really didn't have great money management,at least to the point I didn't realize the potential that I had if I was on track betting more often.In short I was timid if I had a few bad days.As we speak I'm in the process of becoming a fulltime player because I know I can beat the game.Not the easiest transition in the world!!Everybody thinks I'm a genius if I make 2 G's roofing somebody's house,but I'm insane or lucky if I make that much in 12 trips to the track.Most of these numbers I only played fulltime during the winter or at least a few days a week and they are watered down a little and I had a few vacancies because of life issues-breakup with girlfriend,mom had cancer etc,but...;

2004=+3711.90(Fall meet only)
2005=+121.50
2006=+1663.00
2007=+5,389.00
2008=+731.30

The 2008 numbers are for the last 5 days,Saturday or Sunday,that I have played.I did not play before that this year for reasons I don't care to divulge.If you were expecting 40 K a year,not there yet.But I'll let you know because I'm giving up my day job this winter.Every time I'm on my A game and have the cabbage I win more often than not.Undercapitalizing is a good handicapper's greatest weakness IMO.NO more!!!And this flake on this thread will never reach that conclusion.Born loser.

[cj]

Our past performances far outdistance anything in the UK, and that includes those that charge a fee.

[Charlie D]

I can't agree CJ

A US PP is just a snapshot of a horses career


Go to RP website and you can see it's life for free


Going off topic a bit CJ, so lets leave this for another debate

[barn32]

Horseracing is not unappealing. In fact, it is very appealing. However, there is to much competition for the gambling dollar.

Dog racing, which is faster and attracts a younger crowd.

The lottery, which attracts your $2 bettors.

An Indian casino on every street corner.

Bingo halls.

Internet poker.

Internet sports betting.

Internet gambling.

Before you had any of those things horse racing thrived. It seemed like everybody went to the horses at least occasionally.

Now it's more like, why bother. I can bet on a football game, poker game, or even play roulette from my home, and if not I can drive down to the card room or local casino.

So did the horse racing industry see this coming and adjust. Hell no! In a lot of cases they raised the rake!

They'll eventually make some changes, but only after it's too late.

[Cangamble]

Thanks Cincy. But you failed to answer me if you get rebates, and also I'd like to know approximately how much you bet a year if possible.

I'm not denying that some people could win....it is just very unlikely. And for those like you, there are probably 500 people who lose a lot more per year than you win.

Looking at your numbers though, there is really nothing to get excited about that would make someone want to climb aboard and become a 20 hour a week handicapper. And that is racing's biggest problem.

[DeanT]

Poker players I know who have turned pro keep track of their $/hour to see how they are doing. If someone wins at racing with these high prices, with a smaller bankroll, I would suspect when all the hours are added up, they are working for what a shoelace worker in Shanghai makes per hour.

It is hard to say to someone (even if you are one of the small percentage who crank out winnings) "hey come to racing, you'll win and make $1.40 an hour" and expect the sport to grow.

[Charlie D]

Poker players I know who have turned pro keep track of their $/hour to see how they are doing. If someone wins at racing with these high prices, with a smaller bankroll, I would suspect when all the hours are added up, they are working for what a shoelace worker in Shanghai makes per hour.

It is hard to say to someone (even if you are one of the small percentage who crank out winnings) "hey come to racing, you'll win and make $1.40 an hour" and expect the sport to grow.




Spot on Dean T

Potential US racing bettor needs a Loan before he even starts bettng

[cj's dad]

I look at horse racing as a hobby, that is, if you do your homework and have a bit of luck, you can recoup some of your money.


Others have hobbies which can be much more expensive; hunting, fishing, camping, golfing, etc.... from which you get little if any of youe investment returned. The gratification for those in the above mentioned is the enjoyment of doing what they like to do.

I love horse racing, the out of town trips, the people (most) and the inherent handicapping challenge it imposes and realize that I will never ever come out ahead. Big scores at times ? yes, but a net loss overall.

But, I enjoy what I do and will keep doing it as long as I can. I will not go broke because I know my limitations.
I am in the 98% losers bracket and am not ashamed to admit it.

[classhandicapper]

Poker players I know who have turned pro keep track of their $/hour to see how they are doing. If someone wins at racing with these high prices, with a smaller bankroll, I would suspect when all the hours are added up, they are working for what a shoelace worker in Shanghai makes per hour.

It is hard to say to someone (even if you are one of the small percentage who crank out winnings) "hey come to racing, you'll win and make $1.40 an hour" and expect the sport to grow.

I think that's the major problem. It's very hard to justify playing this game seriously. You have to be willing to bet very large sums of money or put a lot of time into following and playing a lot of different tracks.

The problem with betting very large sums is that you have to divert that bankroll away from other productive uses. In addition, for many people, the volatility of large bets takes away from their enjoyment of the game and the things that attracted them to begin with.

The problem with playing a lot of tracks is that for most people it starts feeling like a job and again takes away from the enjoyment of the game that attracted them to begin with.

I think this is a great game to play part time for pleasure/intellectual stimulation and to enjoy any profits you can make, but there are many better ways to make money.

[Robert Fischer]

In 2003, ESPN expanded their coverage to new heights with their coverage of the WSOP. They included coverage of the entire tournament, with a "Featured Table". At this table, the viewers could see the player's hole cards and subsequent strategy. The action was also broadcast as if live, though on tape-delay. This level of coverage arguably led to the popularity boom of No-Limit Texas Hold 'Em.

[Robert Fischer]

guys, you make good points about attracting pro level players...

However, to attract Masses of people, -which is where the real commercial success lies in a "sport" - you must use the Mass Media to it's full extent.

We don't have horse racing and gambling on horse racing on tv on espn and standard cable channels in enough homes.

HRTV and TVG are a start , but they aren't widely enough distributed. Not everyone has those packages or dishes.

Mass Media broadcast has to be brainwashed into the common man. That is how nearly all big commercial dollars are made. You show a hundred million people something and hundreds of thousands will try it.


EDIT - If you have masses of people playing the sport, the profit level is much higher. The pools become larger and the % of smart money becomes smaller.

[Charlie D]

Good point Robert


UK has most of the Top race available on tv, that anyone with a tv can watch


That is how i got interested in racing,


the Monday night NFL game is broadcast on UK tv



that is how i got interested in NFL

[jonnielu]

Like many others in UK i'm watching racing via ATR

Great Leighs 10f race

£400k traded before off on BF


Keenland 12f race

£24k traded before off on BF



These are very similar, so why is one so much more popular with UK bettors than the other



Could it be that good free info is availbe for the UK race, could it be they percieve that US racing is behind UK racing in the integrity stakes

Well Charlie,

It is true that the lads are to cheap to pay for info, but perception is 90% of it. Thirty years ago, a fellow with a great lack of perception offered that racing at Keeneland was conducted for the benefit of the horsemen. Although that is about as far from the actual truth as anything could get, Keeneland has yet to overcome the damage done. Damage that still has an effect today.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I doubt that has thing one to do with racing's lack of popularity.
Most people never even make it to conventional handicapping.

Nor are they motivated to, Tom. That is my point. Most newbies will look at the handicapper and see a loser. Why would they want to learn what he knows? There is no reason to figure that he knows anything worth learning.

Why would the newbie expect that a handicapper could teach him something about betting horses, when the handicapper has not even been able to figure out that horse racing does not figure in the manner that a handicapper would figure it. The proof comes in 70% of the time.

Yet, there is the handicapper.... still figuring in the same old way.

jdl

[slewis]

Racing does not know who it's customers are.
You can't win in a casino either, but they understand he word customer.


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: And it's getting worse.......

[Charlie D]

Well Charlie,

It is true that the lads are to cheap to pay for info, but perception is 90% of it.

jdl


They probably are too cheap Jonnie, but go to HK racing website and you find free basic info, same with UK, same with Australia

do we get charged before we bet NFL, Soccer, Baseball, Golf etc

[Robert Fischer]

right

the majority of these outfits are morons when it comes to selling the product.

If you make your money from the betting - don't try to nickle and dime elsewhere!

You should be spending your own money sending people information.

You should be handing out tickets and vouchers at the track to entice customers to come back!

the idea is to get more customers , and to get the current customers to RETURN. Somehow this got confused and changed into simply "tax the customers"

[Charlie D]

There is a massive pool of potential horse racing bettors in US and other countries

Give em free basic info, make it so they can watch and bet races from any track anywhere

Also, come down hard on the cheats that are caught


This will encourage people to bet on US racing, this helps US racing to survive in a competitive market place

[Track Phantom]

Horse Racing's lack of popularity has nothing to do with winning or losing. Hundreds of millions of people frequent the casinos every year and lose 100s of billions of dollars. In horse racing there are no bright lights, advertising or promises of the possibility of instant riches, and the only time horse racing makes the news is when there is another scandal or tragedy.
Casinos have bright lights and a screen over the slot machines showing the millions of dollars that you might win with your next pull on a lever. Every few seconds you have a chance to be rich. Even poker as boring as it is, is shown on television with the players playing for hugh payoffs.
Also we live in an instant gratification generation. We complain that 70 miles an hour is not fast enough. We go crazy when our computers don't instantly download a page. We carry cell phones because we have say it now, it can't wait till we get home.
Basically we want everything yesterday.
Horse Racing is a grind and will never be able to compete with our now mentality.

money

Please dont take offense to this but your viewpoint is exactly, in my opinion, what keeps horse racing down. Trying to blame technology and a "moving too fast" public is antiquated.

Bottom line.... if you can make money at it, people will come in droves. And it doesn't matter if it is held in a shinny new casino with bright lights or a warehouse with no windows.

[Charlie D]

This fella has right idea



So … you've got all the signals coming to one central exchange, where different entities like Premier Turf, like Twins Spires at Churchill Downs, like Express Bet of Magna, can hook onto that central exchange and be able to handle to take bets on every horse running in North America today at a price that is appropriate, that is low enough to attract all the clientele.

[BUD]

Handicapping is hard and hard work..Its a B1$%.....But its a hell of a pride when you pick a winner....Or put together an exotic........Damned straight I have pride that I know this stuff now and family and friends, fascinated call me up and ask me "What I Think".......There is a pride that comes from walking a road that not many travel........That said.....Free PP's....Screw this TVG pick 6 crap.........Show some handicapping tournaments........Put together exotics on TV.......The Little Guy does that in between the Belmont races.....Its Interesting to folks like ME......I am 42, God willing I have some playing years ahead of me.....My 12 year old loves reading the Form and Handicapping....She rides...She would love to be involved in the sport.........Maybe I can't win a million....I could care less....I am happy and Most happy with the process.........


My small handle is about 100---140 per day....That was after some mentoring so I would not blow 100 before race 8.....

Free PP's...Teach newbies the basics....Open the signal......Don't make me jump hoops to bet certain tracks.....How about orchestrated starts, meaning Oak Tree and Belmont do not go off together......How about some instant replay at times......Not just the race replay...But both....Maybe A little more info on injured horses and jockey's........Maybe the TVG guys when they get caught on the air during the National Anthem, learn to show some class....Not like Todd S the day of the Arc....

I am sorry I could keep posting here....I understand I am being redundant....This is a passion for me...I witnessed 6 friends-co worker-family try this at home........As I said before...The roadblocks got to them.......They still bet maybe once a month.....But they wanted to be involved on a weekly basis......Maybe if HANA has its way...In time they may come back...

Sorry folks

[Track Phantom]

....If you were expecting 40 K a year,not there yet.But I'll let you know because I'm giving up my day job this winter.Every time I'm on my A game and have the cabbage I win more often than not.Undercapitalizing is a good handicapper's greatest weakness IMO.NO more!!!And this flake on this thread will never reach that conclusion.Born loser.

In all due respect, you are making the worst decision of your life. You'll regret this in a lot of different ways.

[Track Phantom]

Poker players I know who have turned pro keep track of their $/hour to see how they are doing. If someone wins at racing with these high prices, with a smaller bankroll, I would suspect when all the hours are added up, they are working for what a shoelace worker in Shanghai makes per hour.

It is hard to say to someone (even if you are one of the small percentage who crank out winnings) "hey come to racing, you'll win and make $1.40 an hour" and expect the sport to grow.

Good post :) Echoes my thoughts exactly.

[CincyHorseplayer]

In all due respect, you are making the worst decision of your life. You'll regret this in a lot of different ways.

Believe me,I'm scared and apprehensive to some extent to attempt it,but all the peripheral things reinforce my decision.The plays are always there.They don't go away and unless every track in the country closes I'll never be put out.Plus it's something I enjoy completely and I don't have to worry about who is working for me and what's up with them.I don't look at this endeavor as an illusion I'm indulging with nightmare consequences.I've been either thinking about this or trying to make it happen since 2001.I would always say to myself,"One day I'm going to go here and never leave".Symbolically I have aspired to that ever since.I could win then but only enough to survive by not getting beat=breaking even.I knew if I could survive I could find a way to win.It took me years to have a vision of the money aspect of the races.I was always a good handicapper but I underachieved for a variety of reasons financial.Long story short I just feel completely comfortable with the process and there are less headaches within it.It's not easy by any means,the ins and outs can be tough,but my approach is just to play 500 til I go on a run.That works.And that's the way it works.Once I knew what the hell I was doing I could go 500(break even) no matter what.Winning is just a matter of inches.

And besides,I think that there is a faith factor involved.Most people do not believe they could ever win.The fear factor on every level of what that entails makes them too apprehensive to move.I know it because I have felt it.The working class hates the idea of a gambler in principle because you put out a day's wage to make a day's wage or better.That is conceived as dishonest or degenerate.Doing and believing have made up my mind.Wherever there are hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars there is somebody winning.If you don't believe you can win and have never won,you will never win.At this point it's almost a philosophical crusade for me because there are a legion of doubters out there.I think the winners of any gambling world are somebody with a healthy dose of self confidence and a chip on their shoulder.I fit that description.It's investments.Look at Wallstreet.Look at that "Safe" gamble.This is equine investing.If you don't trust your judgement you won't win...

[jonnielu]

Ok here's where you're ready to rip me a new one because I don't have 2 lifetimes of stats based on projections or I'm about to die because I'm 90 yrs old and have a lifetime of track experience.Many don't have the luxury of 3,000 sample bets to project how we are going to do at the track.I just go and let it fall.Put my money through.Til last year I really didn't have great money management,at least to the point I didn't realize the potential that I had if I was on track betting more often.In short I was timid if I had a few bad days.As we speak I'm in the process of becoming a fulltime player because I know I can beat the game.Not the easiest transition in the world!!Everybody thinks I'm a genius if I make 2 G's roofing somebody's house,but I'm insane or lucky if I make that much in 12 trips to the track.Most of these numbers I only played fulltime during the winter or at least a few days a week and they are watered down a little and I had a few vacancies because of life issues-breakup with girlfriend,mom had cancer etc,but...;

2004=+3711.90(Fall meet only)
2005=+121.50
2006=+1663.00
2007=+5,389.00
2008=+731.30

The 2008 numbers are for the last 5 days,Saturday or Sunday,that I have played.I did not play before that this year for reasons I don't care to divulge.If you were expecting 40 K a year,not there yet.But I'll let you know because I'm giving up my day job this winter.Every time I'm on my A game and have the cabbage I win more often than not.Undercapitalizing is a good handicapper's greatest weakness IMO.NO more!!!And this flake on this thread will never reach that conclusion.Born loser.

Are you going to play ontrack or online? Since it will be winter, what's the venue?

jdl

[jonnielu]

In all due respect, you are making the worst decision of your life. You'll regret this in a lot of different ways.

I disagree, you can't cut the trail unless you go and take your shots, making selections is the easy part. Making the right decisions consistently takes experience, you can't get the best experience until you put yourself out there without any nets. If you are ready, or not, you will know quickly.

jdl

[Tom]

Yet, there is the handicapper.... still figuring in the same old way.

jdl

You keep posting this same tired, old untrue line. Lots people are making money using a variety of ways. You don't even have a clue what conventional handicapping is, let alone a clue as to wins or loses using it. Pure BS.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Are you going to play ontrack or online? Since it will be winter, what's the venue?

jdl

As Cincyhorseplayer I'll be betting on Turfway Park and Beulah Park because I know the trainers and horses.Turfway's winter meet gets easy to handicap after horses have run over the surface a time or two.

I like being ontrack if there is live racing but if it gets really cold I prefer to stay at home.I haven't had that luxury of yet because I don't know where to bet both and/or Ohio and Kentucky tracks.

Some days the races are despicable at Beulah and I might only make 1 or 2 bets there but I usually get more plays at TP.I'm dying to bet Presque Isle Downs shippers in allowance races there.They win at ridiculous prices.

[Cangamble]

As Cincyhorseplayer I'll be betting on Turfway Park and Beulah Park because I know the trainers and horses.Turfway's winter meet gets easy to handicap after horses have run over the surface a time or two.

I like being ontrack if there is live racing but if it gets really cold I prefer to stay at home.I haven't had that luxury of yet because I don't know where to bet both and/or Ohio and Kentucky tracks.

Some days the races are despicable at Beulah and I might only make 1 or 2 bets there but I usually get more plays at TP.I'm dying to bet Presque Isle Downs shippers in allowance races there.They win at ridiculous prices.
Do you get rebates? And how much do you average betting a day? I hope you don't find these questions too personal. If you do, don't answer.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Good post :) Echoes my thoughts exactly.

Dumb comparison.Compare the amount of money bet to win x amount of dollars.The reality of a horseplayer showing up with $100 and a poker player showing up with $100,000 is vast.

What you're doing here is comparing a player like myself's betting habits to Phil Helmuth's betting habits.If you think the only way to win is to bet a million dollars a week,well hey,you have already won the game!!!Most of us aren't well off and some,like me,play for real money,with life on the line.Might not be advisable or appreciable but it adds a whole new approach to the issue.

I think that is the real issue here.I'm contemplating doing this for a living and you're debating on where you lose your money at!!You probably lose more money than I bet in a year.Can't knock you for that.You did your homework and cleaned up in the game of life.I still have my dick in the wind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jonnielu]

You keep posting this same tired, old untrue line. Lots people are making money using a variety of ways. You don't even have a clue what conventional handicapping is, let alone a clue as to wins or loses using it. Pure BS.

It's on the board every day Tom, just bet the horse that the handicapper can't see. What's wrong is that the handicapper has no idea how much competition is actually in a given race, and bets the chalk by default. The game has passed you by.

jdl

[jonnielu]

As Cincyhorseplayer I'll be betting on Turfway Park and Beulah Park because I know the trainers and horses.Turfway's winter meet gets easy to handicap after horses have run over the surface a time or two.

I like being ontrack if there is live racing but if it gets really cold I prefer to stay at home.I haven't had that luxury of yet because I don't know where to bet both and/or Ohio and Kentucky tracks.

Some days the races are despicable at Beulah and I might only make 1 or 2 bets there but I usually get more plays at TP.I'm dying to bet Presque Isle Downs shippers in allowance races there.They win at ridiculous prices.

Why not GP? Or Tampa. Conditions are always conducive to making money there in the winter.

jdl

[CincyHorseplayer]

Why not GP? Or Tampa. Conditions are always conducive to making money there in the winter.

jdl


You must be psychic.I have been contemplating going to Tampa(where I was born BTW)in the winter just to be around the racing.I love that track and it's relatively easy to handicap.But I love betting both Florida tracks during the winter.Track conditions get so messed up at Beulah that it becomes unbettable.I've had to deal with DOT(drying out track) to FZ(frozen)to WF(wet-fast)in 3 consecutive days.And when beat you over the head type horses start screwing up your bets you really can"t win.

Where are you at and what do you bet during the winter???

[Tom]

It's on the board every day Tom, just bet the horse that the handicapper can't see. What's wrong is that the handicapper has no idea how much competition is actually in a given race, and bets the chalk by default. The game has passed you by.

jdl

You are talking about the crowd, not a handicapper. Your point is moot. The handicapper has always won his money from the crowd. you analogy is like saying you can dive into the pool at either end because the average depth is 4 feet. Apples and oranges. Or cannon balls or traction.

[cj]

CincyHorsePlayer,

Please stop with the posts in all BOLD font. It is very hard on the eyes.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I disagree, you can't cut the trail unless you go and take your shots, making selections is the easy part. Making the right decisions consistently takes experience, you can't get the best experience until you put yourself out there without any nets. If you are ready, or not, you will know quickly.

jdl

Jonnieliu I have read your posts for a few months and I think you get where I'm coming from.Philosophical differences aside(not talking between the two of us,and that is the largest debate on here,and for the good),most players on here never experience what it is like to experience "Real life" in the betting arena.I wish I could say that I am a perepetual winner with 10,000 bets of preamble to prove I have a winning game.I don't.But I have played the game in real life,where the money won counts and I have succeded.I have never bet my bill money or anything like that,which is the reason for the gaps in my betting appearances.I'm disciplined.But I have played with life on the line and succeded.It's like a baseball player hitting with RISP.If you can hit you have faith.

To me it sounds like there is a lot of smoke and no fire.People touting and selling things without being winners when it counts.And I can tell by the way you are treated on here that you are not on the popularity list,even though I suspect you are a winner.And have won when it counts.

Nobody could ever endorse the circumstance,but if you learn to win with life on the line,there is no reason to have losing expectations when you enter an endeavor stress free.This game is winnable and I think most people don't like the effort it takes to do that.

It's a beatable game.Do you want to put forth the effort???No??

There is the answer."Give me something with minimal effort..."

[CincyHorseplayer]

CincyHorsePlayer,

Please stop with the posts in all BOLD font. It is very hard on the eyes.

I do it because it's easier on my eyes,not to prove a point.If that helps.Believe me reading you techno geniuses that bet my rent payments per horse I am very humbled by reading this board.I am not trying to stick out in any way.I'm just putting out my gut instincts,fearlessly,on the board.

Best feedback I ever got.

[cj's dad]

Yours is quite possibly the most Bullshit post I have ever read since I've been on this forum!! If you think betting horses is real life, you have no idea what real life is !! Get a real life !!Jonnieliu I have read your posts for a few months and I think you get where I'm coming from.Philosophical differences aside(not talking between the two of us,and that is the largest debate on here,and for the good),most players on here never experience what it is like to experience "Real life" in the betting arena.I wish I could say that I am a perepetual winner with 10,000 bets of preamble to prove I have a winning game.I don't.But I have played the game in real life,where the money won counts and I have succeded.I have never bet my bill money or anything like that,which is the reason for the gaps in my betting appearances.I'm disciplined.But I have played with life on the line and succeded.It's like a baseball player hitting with RISP.If you can hit you have faith.

To me it sounds like there is a lot of smoke and no fire.People touting and selling things without being winners when it counts.And I can tell by the way you are treated on here that you are not on the popularity list,even though I suspect you are a winner.And have won when it counts.

Nobody could ever endorse the circumstance,but if you learn to win with life on the line,there is no reason to have losing expectations when you enter an endeavor stress free.This game is winnable and I think most people don't like the effort it takes to do that.

It's a beatable game.Do you want to put forth the effort???No??

There is the answer."Give me something with minimal effort..."

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yours is quite possibly the most Bullshit post I have ever read since I've been on this forum!! If you think betting horses is real life, you have no idea what real life is !! Get a real life !!

And why do you think that is????

Bullshit's ass.Obviously you have never struggled in life and this is just a pun in the scheme of your existence.

If you have never bet with anythng but your recreation on the line shut your mouth and go home.You have no idea what the hell I'm talking about.

Real life???

Well in real life I make more money per capita than actually working.Does that qualify as real life,because the bottomline is the best estimator??

You are just a fraction of the multitude of losers that can't win.Initially I was upset with your post,but I know born losers are wrought with emotion.

What do you know about real life???Who are you to judge and determine????I've beat the game with life on the wire.Have you ever done that???Or is the fact that I play with life on the wire the key note for your criticism???

I've put my life on the line here shamelessly to get feedback.Somebody telling me I can't win I don't buy into just from actual REAL LIFE experience.

[DeanT]

Cincy,

I admire your verve in trying to go out on your own. But one quick thing: I know some professional players and the successful ones never tell anyone they win, and they never expect to win. It just happens, very quietly. I find that the ones that speak of their prowess and believe they are omnipotent tend to sooner or later find themselves in the bread line.

[Imriledup]

Cincy,

I admire your verve in trying to go out on your own. But one quick thing: I know some professional players and the successful ones never tell anyone they win, and they never expect to win. It just happens, very quietly. I find that the ones that speak of their prowess and believe they are omnipotent tend to sooner or later find themselves in the bread line.

100% true. ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy,

I admire your verve in trying to go out on your own. But one quick thing: I know some professional players and the successful ones never tell anyone they win, and they never expect to win. It just happens, very quietly. I find that the ones that speak of their prowess and believe they are omnipotent tend to sooner or later find themselves in the bread line.

Man I haven't achieved anythng to brag about and if I'm coming off like that it is purely unintentional.But if there is a line being drawn of people saying this is unbeatable and the winning thing to do is to shut your mouth and say nothing.Well??What is that worth??Break down the tables here.If you are a loser=you are entitled to every opinion on the face of the planet.If you are a winner=you need to shut your mouth,count God's blessings and never say a word.

This seems like a place for activism,everybody seems hardcore and fullsteamahead type of individuals.Kind of seems antithetical that when a thread promoting losing is so diehardly agreed upon.I thought this sight was a coven of winners who would reinforce my notions??If winning means you have to be isolated and not say a word,what is this board worth with all of it's words??

Changing the culture is a goal.If touting loss and intolerance of winning is a staple on here I think it is imperative to fight it at least.I wish I was a full time player beating the game,then I might have some credibility,but as a part time player who beats the game my opinion means nothing and if I win I should shut the hell up????Where is this leading the game???

"You cannot win as a horseplayer.."

I don't want to hear that repetitively.For one it's not true.For two it's negative as hell,but it seems to be tolerated on here.I don't get it.Lose=talk all day.Win=shut your mouth???

And I'm at the bottom end income-wise as a bettor.I think if I can make it happen anybody can.That was my whole point and people are routinely abusing me for it.I have nothing to hide and I get shot down for being Joe Small Fry.I give up man.I'm just a horseplayer trying to win the game.Sorry I came off bigshot or chicken little.....I appreciate you at least trying to come to my rescue.Thanks!

[CincyHorseplayer]

CincyHorsePlayer,

Please stop with the posts in all BOLD font. It is very hard on the eyes.

Please stop with the Heath Ledger Avatar.Talk about annoying.....

[MONEY]

Please dont take offense to this but your viewpoint is exactly, in my opinion, what keeps horse racing down. Trying to blame technology and a "moving too fast" public is antiquated.

Bottom line.... if you can make money at it, people will come in droves. And it doesn't matter if it is held in a shinny new casino with bright lights or a warehouse with no windows.

Back in the 80s I took my sister to the track. She knew nothing about horse racing. So while at the track I showed her a little about handicapping. But mostly I told her which races to bet and what types of bets to make. We had some good luck and hit a couple of big exactas, and ended up making a few hundred dollars.
The next time I asked my sister to go to the track with me, she said she didn't want to go because horse racing is boring.
My sister has been going to casinos and now Yonkers race track to play and lose at the slots for years, but she won't go to the races even though she made money, because racing is boring.
The fact is that most people will not make money betting on horse racing. The pari mutual system will assure that. It takes hard work and lots of time, money and patience to be successful at the races. People are not willing to do what it takes to win. They would rather just listen to the bells and whistles while they throw their money away.

money

[DeanT]

Man I haven't achieved anythng to brag about and if I'm coming off like that it is purely unintentional.But if there is a line being drawn of people saying this is unbeatable and the winning thing to do is to shut your mouth and say nothing.Well??What is that worth??Break down the tables here.If you are a loser=you are entitled to every opinion on the face of the planet.If you are a winner=you need to shut your mouth,count God's blessings and never say a word.

This seems like a place for activism,everybody seems hardcore and fullsteamahead type of individuals.Kind of seems antithetical that when a thread promoting losing is so diehardly agreed upon.I thought this sight was a coven of winners who would reinforce my notions??If winning means you have to be isolated and not say a word,what is this board worth with all of it's words??

Changing the culture is a goal.If touting loss and intolerance of winning is a staple on here I think it is imperative to fight it at least.I wish I was a full time player beating the game,then I might have some credibility,but as a part time player who beats the game my opinion means nothing and if I win I should shut the hell up????Where is this leading the game???

"You cannot win as a horseplayer.."

I don't want to hear that repetitively.For one it's not true.For two it's negative as hell,but it seems to be tolerated on here.I don't get it.Lose=talk all day.Win=shut your mouth???

And I'm at the bottom end income-wise as a bettor.I think if I can make it happen anybody can.That was my whole point and people are routinely abusing me for it.I have nothing to hide and I get shot down for being Joe Small Fry.I give up man.I'm just a horseplayer trying to win the game.Sorry I came off bigshot or chicken little.....I appreciate you at least trying to come to my rescue.Thanks!

Cincy,

The point of the thread (imo) was a broad one - meaning that people who get into horse racing inevitably lose en masse, while with poker and some other games it is easier. Your anecdotal evidence is great and I wish you well. There have been a couple replies to the thread from people I know that do fairly well, too. The point remains: There are a handful of professional horseplayers and there are hundreds of times more pros who play other games, like poker. That is a simple fact that is not lost on all of us. Hoping that we win, or being confident, will not make us win. The game is far too difficult for that due to myriad pricing factors as the original poster alluded and that is why our game has not gone mainstream.

[Track Phantom]

Man I haven't achieved anythng to brag about and if I'm coming off like that it is purely unintentional.But if there is a line being drawn of people saying this is unbeatable and the winning thing to do is to shut your mouth and say nothing.Well??What is that worth??Break down the tables here.If you are a loser=you are entitled to every opinion on the face of the planet.If you are a winner=you need to shut your mouth,count God's blessings and never say a word.

This seems like a place for activism,everybody seems hardcore and fullsteamahead type of individuals.Kind of seems antithetical that when a thread promoting losing is so diehardly agreed upon.I thought this sight was a coven of winners who would reinforce my notions??If winning means you have to be isolated and not say a word,what is this board worth with all of it's words??

Changing the culture is a goal.If touting loss and intolerance of winning is a staple on here I think it is imperative to fight it at least.I wish I was a full time player beating the game,then I might have some credibility,but as a part time player who beats the game my opinion means nothing and if I win I should shut the hell up????Where is this leading the game???

"You cannot win as a horseplayer.."

I don't want to hear that repetitively.For one it's not true.For two it's negative as hell,but it seems to be tolerated on here.I don't get it.Lose=talk all day.Win=shut your mouth???

And I'm at the bottom end income-wise as a bettor.I think if I can make it happen anybody can.That was my whole point and people are routinely abusing me for it.I have nothing to hide and I get shot down for being Joe Small Fry.I give up man.I'm just a horseplayer trying to win the game.Sorry I came off bigshot or chicken little.....I appreciate you at least trying to come to my rescue.Thanks!

Cincy,

You seem like a straight up honest dude. Don't let the rest of us on this board get to you. The one overarching character you MUST have to eek out any success as a horse player is confidence. Confidence in your ability to handicap, to make money, to blaze a different trail.

I wish you luck on your venture. I have been playing horse racing hard core since 1986. I've had the fortune (or misfortune) of having a good income and the opportunity to play and follow the game. I've been a public handicapper for a few years on the side, as well. My opinion is the game has too many uncontrolled variables to make it a reliable income stream. Just my opinion, which, if someone showed me a tried and true method of winning long term, could be changed. So far, I haven't heard of or met anyone that makes a living at this game year after year. And there is good reason for that. There are two main variables that impact a horseplayer:
1) High takeout
2) Massive cheating

The high takeout means a horse player has to be functioning well above the curve to offset it. Not to mention having to account for all of the information you have to buy to stay on top of the game, as well. It's a hard hole to climb out of.

The cheating means all the work that goes into setting yourself up for a big score can be wiped away by a seriously out of form horse that wins because it's in the barn of a cheating connection. And they usually win at far lower odds than they are worth.

Back in the late 1980's, I would say I was a pretty consistent winner at the track. When I say consistent, I mean I would have a profit over a designated time period. The main reason for it was the lack of currently published information. I used to create my own key races, my own beyer numbers, etc. I had an advantage. (A good example of this was around 1989. There was a turf race at my hometrack, Canterbury Downs. I noticed a horse I kind of liked that had run on the turf 4 times with zero in the money. It hadn't been on the turf in a long time so there were no PP's showing its turf starts. I dug back into many racing forms to find his turf races. He had a 4th in a $50,000 stakes race on the grass, he had won a turf race at 25-1 and was Dq'd to last, he had finished 6th beaten 1 1/2 lengths in an allowance turf start and he bolted in midstretch, with a 4 length lead, in his other turf start. In short, this horse had shown serious turf ability and I was one of the few players that knew it. He went off at 54-1 and won). Today, he would be 8-1, at best.

Having said all that, I wish you luck if you can overcome these obstacles. If you can, you're much better than I.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy,

You seem like a straight up honest dude. Don't let the rest of us on this board get to you. The one overarching character you MUST have to eek out any success as a horse player is confidence. Confidence in your ability to handicap, to make money, to blaze a different trail.

I wish you luck on your venture. I have been playing horse racing hard core since 1986. I've had the fortune (or misfortune) of having a good income and the opportunity to play and follow the game. I've been a public handicapper for a few years on the side, as well. My opinion is the game has too many uncontrolled variables to make it a reliable income stream. Just my opinion, which, if someone showed me a tried and true method of winning long term, could be changed. So far, I haven't heard of or met anyone that makes a living at this game year after year. And there is good reason for that. There are two main variables that impact a horseplayer:
1) High takeout
2) Massive cheating

The high takeout means a horse player has to be functioning well above the curve to offset it. Not to mention having to account for all of the information you have to buy to stay on top of the game, as well. It's a hard hole to climb out of.

The cheating means all the work that goes into setting yourself up for a big score can be wiped away by a seriously out of form horse that wins because it's in the barn of a cheating connection. And they usually win at far lower odds than they are worth.

Back in the late 1980's, I would say I was a pretty consistent winner at the track. When I say consistent, I mean I would have a profit over a designated time period. The main reason for it was the lack of currently published information. I used to create my own key races, my own beyer numbers, etc. I had an advantage. (A good example of this was around 1989. There was a turf race at my hometrack, Canterbury Downs. I noticed a horse I kind of liked that had run on the turf 4 times with zero in the money. It hadn't been on the turf in a long time so there were no PP's showing its turf starts. I dug back into many racing forms to find his turf races. He had a 4th in a $50,000 stakes race on the grass, he had won a turf race at 25-1 and was Dq'd to last, he had finished 6th beaten 1 1/2 lengths in an allowance turf start and he bolted in midstretch, with a 4 length lead, in his other turf start. In short, this horse had shown serious turf ability and I was one of the few players that knew it. He went off at 54-1 and won). Today, he would be 8-1, at best.

Having said all that, I wish you luck if you can overcome these obstacles. If you can, you're much better than I.

Valentino,

This was a nice reply.It clears the air of intent and that was all the emphasis in my posts.I thought in some form or fashion you were borderline touting loss based on your own experiences. I semi thought you had never played the game and had a condemnation tone because you were a dillettante.

You are at a juncture where wins and losses are borderline meaningless.I am at a juncture where wins and losses mean everything,yet I'm not on medication because of it,and I win often enough that I'm outperforming my job and after several comparisons I think it is wiser to just bet races,as opposed to putting all my eggs in Joe Schmoe"s basket.The track itself isn't going anywhere.And I know I can beat it.Doesn't that sound like something worthwhile?????

[jonnielu]

Jonnieliu I have read your posts for a few months and I think you get where I'm coming from.Philosophical differences aside(not talking between the two of us,and that is the largest debate on here,and for the good),most players on here never experience what it is like to experience "Real life" in the betting arena.I wish I could say that I am a perepetual winner with 10,000 bets of preamble to prove I have a winning game.I don't.But I have played the game in real life,where the money won counts and I have succeded.I have never bet my bill money or anything like that,which is the reason for the gaps in my betting appearances.I'm disciplined.But I have played with life on the line and succeded.It's like a baseball player hitting with RISP.If you can hit you have faith.

To me it sounds like there is a lot of smoke and no fire.People touting and selling things without being winners when it counts.And I can tell by the way you are treated on here that you are not on the popularity list,even though I suspect you are a winner.And have won when it counts.

Nobody could ever endorse the circumstance,but if you learn to win with life on the line,there is no reason to have losing expectations when you enter an endeavor stress free.This game is winnable and I think most people don't like the effort it takes to do that.

It's a beatable game.Do you want to put forth the effort???No??

There is the answer."Give me something with minimal effort..."


I know where you are coming from, because I've been there. I'm not very popular because most people prefer to hear what they want to hear, and I have never been very good at it.

Without regard to any speculation as to how "good" anybody is, or what their particular advice may or may not be, betting horses may be most productive in a situation where you are fairly indifferent to the results.

Your field of vision is much wider and deeper, and your perceptions much sharper, when you don't "need" to win, and can be un-affected emotionally by the most bizzare of results.

To know that you are capable of making the best decisions under the most stress is good, not having to, is always better.

There is always risk involved, and risks must be taken in order to gain the maximum lessons that are only offered in taking them.

But, it is always prudent to minimize those risks, if possible. Doing so will always maximize your advantages. It is not a matter of whether or not you need to maximize any advantages that you have, it is simply better to give yourself as much advantage as possible.

If you are as best prepared as possible, and go to a venue that offers the most opportunities, your success is just more likely. If you do not have to put life on the line, why throw it in? The world's most opportune racing comes back to your backyard in April.

jdl

[jonnielu]

You are talking about the crowd, not a handicapper. Your point is moot. The handicapper has always won his money from the crowd. you analogy is like saying you can dive into the pool at either end because the average depth is 4 feet. Apples and oranges. Or cannon balls or traction.

Take another look at the crowd Tom, you (the handicapper) are right in the middle of it.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Cincy,

My opinion is the game has too many uncontrolled variables to make it a reliable income stream. Just my opinion, which, if someone showed me a tried and true method of winning long term, could be changed. So far, I haven't heard of or met anyone that makes a living at this game year after year. And there is good reason for that. There are two main variables that impact a horseplayer:
1) High takeout
2) Massive cheating


The cheating means all the work that goes into setting yourself up for a big score can be wiped away by a seriously out of form horse that wins because it's in the barn of a cheating connection. And they usually win at far lower odds than they are worth.



Way to go, you just chased 10 more people away from horseracing with the stupid assumptions that you make.

Like, a horse can not win unless in form, or somebody is cheating.

You should switch to poker.

jdl

[Tom]

Take another look at the crowd Tom, you (the handicapper) are right in the middle of it.

jdl

And so are you.
You cannot interchange the crowd and the handicappers because the majority of the crowd do not handicap to any degree. Apple and oranges. You, too, are part of the crowd. And neither one of us impacts new players one little bit.

[jonnielu]

And so are you.
You cannot interchange the crowd and the handicappers because the majority of the crowd do not handicap to any degree. Apple and oranges. You, too, are part of the crowd. And neither one of us impacts new players one little bit.

The "you too" arguement falls a little short Tom, there are no crowds around me. If there were, I'd have to call myself into question.

If the crowd is not handicapping, then they are following the handicapper in his dogma.

You like data, why don't you compile some, and take a look at the action in your own back yard. What percentage of winners at BEL so far were one of the top 4 ML, yet won at odds above their ML?

jdl

jdl

[Charlie D]

Way to go, you just chased 10 more people away from horseracing with the stupid assumptions that you make.

Like, a horse can not win unless in form, or somebody is cheating.

You should switch to poker.

jdl


Jonnie


Every trainer that violates the rules chases the people away, every racing authority that just slap's these people on the wrist chases the people away



Can you tell these people to switch to Poker please as imo these people do more damage than any statement by a PA member

[Tom]

Because I don't care.
The ML is irrelevant.
No one gets paid the ML.

[jonnielu]

Jonnie


Every trainer that violates the rules chases the people away, every racing authority that just slap's these people on the wrist chases the people away



Can you tell these people to switch to Poker please as imo these people do more damage than any statement by a PA member

Your horse must show good form, or you are not allowed to win.

Is that one of the rules?

Should rules be written to protect the ignorant from their lack of knowledge?

I don't know about you, but, I'm a little tired of the attitude that many have when they offer something along this line:

"My methods do not reveal the ability of the horse, but I must be right because I'm good with arithmetic. Therefore, if a horse that I don't expect to win, does so. It is oviously because of some sort of cheating."

There are those in every game that may have the tendency to cheat, but if ever there was a game where any actual cheating were just plain un-necessary, it is horse racing.

If the handicapper weren't so restricted in his perspective, he would be able to see how little cheating there actually is. 95% of what the un-knowing handicapper assumes to be cheating is in fact the result of competition, plain and simple.

What is wrong with North American horse racing?

The ignorance of the handicapper. Somehow the industry has to wise this bunch up to the realities of racing. I would say that they are better off to start teaching horse racing to a new customer base right now. Maybe a few handicappers could be saved before they all die out.

jdl

jdl

[jonnielu]

Because I don't care.
The ML is irrelevant.
No one gets paid the ML.

Gee Tom, do you really want to hit 30,000 without just a few thoughtful posts?

The ML, as the most consistently accurate reflection of the past performance handicapper's perspective, is the single most consistent factor in the history of the game.

To offer that it is irrelevant, is a bit mis-guided.

I can see where the handicapper might not notice, since he is too busy trying to figuring out which horse has the "best" past performances.

jdl

[Tom]

The ML, as the most consistently accurate reflection of the past performance handicapper's perspective, is the single most consistent factor in the history of the game.



Yup, agree - consistently wrong.
And that will end this edition of "Johnny Knows Best" as you have totally lost the original thread idea. Again.

[Charlie D]

Your horse must show good form, or you are not allowed to win.

Is that one of the rules?

No

Should rules be written to protect the ignorant from their lack of knowledge?


No


If the handicapper weren't so restricted in his perspective, he would be able to see how little cheating there actually is. 95% of what the un-knowing handicapper assumes to be cheating is in fact the result of competition, plain and simple.

Not sure how you work out the %, but i agree with the point your trying to make

[Track Phantom]

If the handicapper weren't so restricted in his perspective, he would be able to see how little cheating there actually is. 95% of what the un-knowing handicapper assumes to be cheating is in fact the result of competition, plain and simple.

Ahhh...there was a day too when I was so niave. Cheating is so rampant in the sport these days that the game is completely upside down. Trainers with hardly any horse knowledge are not just competitive, they are leading their respective circuits. The minute there is a crackdown and these trainers cant poke their horses with the magic needle, they go winless (case in point, JAMIE NESS).

You'll wear out your keyboard trying to convince me that the game is not corrupt.

[cnollfan]

Poker players I know who have turned pro keep track of their $/hour to see how they are doing. If someone wins at racing with these high prices, with a smaller bankroll, I would suspect when all the hours are added up, they are working for what a shoelace worker in Shanghai makes per hour.

It is hard to say to someone (even if you are one of the small percentage who crank out winnings) "hey come to racing, you'll win and make $1.40 an hour" and expect the sport to grow.

Yes, but I love making shoelaces, so to speak. If I were independently wealthy and could retire to a desert isle, I'd still rather play the horses.

[jonnielu]

Ahhh...there was a day too when I was so niave. Cheating is so rampant in the sport these days that the game is completely upside down. Trainers with hardly any horse knowledge are not just competitive, they are leading their respective circuits. The minute there is a crackdown and these trainers cant poke their horses with the magic needle, they go winless (case in point, JAMIE NESS).

You'll wear out your keyboard trying to convince me that the game is not corrupt.

What circuit are we talking about?

[PaceAdvantage]

Please stop with the Heath Ledger Avatar.Talk about annoying.....CJ is a moderator here. Posting with all caps or all bold is not very polite, as it is difficult to read for most folks.

Also, using "F**K you" or any derivative of such is not cool.

Thanks for listening.

[jonnielu]

Ahhh...there was a day too when I was so niave. Cheating is so rampant in the sport these days that the game is completely upside down. Trainers with hardly any horse knowledge are not just competitive, they are leading their respective circuits. The minute there is a crackdown and these trainers cant poke their horses with the magic needle, they go winless (case in point, JAMIE NESS).

You'll wear out your keyboard trying to convince me that the game is not corrupt.

Okay, let's try this angle. 6th KEE 8fTurf, today, winner pays $124.80.

Is it because of:

(a) cheating (the juice)

(b) A natural result of intense competition

(c) Keeneland mowed the turf course yesterday

Care to take a wag?

jdl

[Tom]

HTR had him as a viable longshot with the $$ indicator, plus
Ranked #1 F1, #1 EP Razor Sharp WO (HTR's newest big deal!), positive jockey change, several positive trainer pattern. Definately a contest horse, probably an exacta horse in real play. I'm sure some HTR guys had him today. Me, I had the 9 and 1....d'oh!..the other w/o horse.

[Cangamble]

Okay, let's try this angle. 6th KEE 8fTurf, today, winner pays $124.80.

Is it because of:

(a) cheating (the juice)

(b) A natural result of intense competition

(c) Keeneland mowed the turf course yesterday

Care to take a wag?

jdl
A trainer who starts over 150 races a year wins at 20% for 3 years, then he wins at 8% for 5 years, but in the last year and a half he is over 20% again.

Are his great years great because he knows a lot more than every other trainer out there?

He is lucky for a while, and then he isn't lucky, and then he is lucky again?

He sold his soul to the devil, but the devil forgot to honor the agreement for a few year?

He uses new magic potions when he thinks they won't get tested?

[jonnielu]

HTR had him as a viable longshot with the $$ indicator, plus
Ranked #1 F1, #1 EP Razor Sharp WO (HTR's newest big deal!), positive jockey change, several positive trainer pattern. Definately a contest horse, probably an exacta horse in real play. I'm sure some HTR guys had him today. Me, I had the 9 and 1....d'oh!..the other w/o horse.

Did the race look very competitive to you Tom? I had 7-9 with preference to the #9 for the win, I discounted the speed of the #4 because of the grass, and you know why. But, I have been seeing this trend (high early speed winning on turf) all over the country for the last 6 months. What do you make of it?

jdl

[jonnielu]

A trainer who starts over 150 races a year wins at 20% for 3 years, then he wins at 8% for 5 years, but in the last year and a half he is over 20% again.

Are his great years great because he knows a lot more than every other trainer out there?

He is lucky for a while, and then he isn't lucky, and then he is lucky again?

He sold his soul to the devil, but the devil forgot to honor the agreement for a few year?

He uses new magic potions when he thinks they won't get tested?

Maybe he just stopped drinking for a few years, or got married.

jdl

[Tom]

The 9 all the way. 1 second choice.
The early speed of the 4 steered me off it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

CJ is a moderator here. Posting with all caps or all bold is not very polite, as it is difficult to read for most folks.

Also, using "F**K you" or any derivative of such is not cool.

Thanks for listening.

Sorry PA.My temper got the best of me last night.

[jonnielu]

The 9 all the way. 1 second choice.
The early speed of the 4 steered me off it.

Me too, also coming off of 5.5F. But, looking back at the running line, I see it is the right kind of sprinter that could go into a mile on the grass, I'd still expect him to go too fast though.

But, I've been seeing this on turf courses all over going back to the KEE spring meet. I've been betting some speedy horses on turf lately because of it, and I am still missing some like this one because of old habits. But, it seems that jockeys are opening up early with speedy horses on turf a lot more then you would expect. I think the trend will continue, because many are succeeding.

I bet Closeout last week, and cussed the jockey all the way, then wound up cussing the stewards instead.

It is our handicapping tendencies that are causing us to let these go when we should be on them based on ability and horse racing nature. The race was very competitive, but nature created the results as usual. I'll send you the review of the day.

P.S. The underbet Fav in the 9th was surely underbet for the same reason.

jdl

[DeanT]

Interesting post at Harnesslink about winning players and promoting them (http://harnessracingblog.com/i-think-i-can-i-think-i-can/) in poker, like the "Chris Ferguson Challenge"

http://harnessracingblog.com/files/2008/10/chris-ferguson-challenge-10000.jpg





Further discussion at HANA (http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/).