Rebate Shops influence on the Favorites

[BeatTheChalk]

I don't know much about these shops .. But it seems to me that the odds in
certain races - would be heavily influenced by the money going into the pools
from these shops. This would in turn .. create much more money on the
favorites over the long term. Your thoughts ?

[Imriledup]

This would be a catch 22 in the minds of many people here. In most threads about whales, people seem to indicate that whales are these all knowing types who always win. In my experience, people who are great bettors and 'always win' aren't betting favorites. How many successful horseplayers do you know who are betting even money shots? People who win in the long run are people who can beat favorites and go against the general population.

Or, you could take the stance that rebate guys will bet shorter priced horses to get that 'churn' going. If that's the case, than there's value to be found in other runners. More money in the pool means its better for everyone. That's just one of the many advantages that being a minnow offers these days.

[Indulto]

This would be a catch 22 in the minds of many people here. In most threads about whales, people seem to indicate that whales are these all knowing types who always win. In my experience, people who are great bettors and 'always win' aren't betting favorites. How many successful horseplayers do you know who are betting even money shots? People who win in the long run are people who can beat favorites and go against the general population.

Or, you could take the stance that rebate guys will bet shorter priced horses to get that 'churn' going. If that's the case, than there's value to be found in other runners. More money in the pool means its better for everyone. That's just one of the many advantages that being a minnow offers these days.:lol:

That was good. I assume the humor was intentional, IRU.

The successful players I'm aware of leverage favorites using exotics. Some claim to make money on odds-on favorites bet to win by increasing wager size following a loss. What's the longest string of losing odds-on favorites anybody's heard of. Would it wipe out a rebated whale? ;)

[DanG]

If your betting the win pool at the “whale” level (fill in whatever yearly 7 figure # you like) your options really aren’t all that varied.

You must bet into the largest pools in the country. You also cannot bet above a certain odds range because the tote cannot absorb your action as odds rise.

IMO: This is not necessarily a bad thing for the ‘non-whale. This creates a vacuum in the mid-prices if you have the stomach to handle a potentially reduced hit rate.

[ryesteve]

That's just one of the many advantages that being a minnow offers these days.Oh yeah, being at the bottom of the food chain is where it's at :rolleyes:

So how much did you have on that $360 overlay at LaD the other day? That's the example of the type of horses the whales will give you, so I'm sure you were all over it.

That was good. I assume the humor was intentional.Unfortunately, he's being totally serious...

[classhandicapper]

I think playing favorites in a rebate situation has some merit.

Some broad groups of favorites tend to outperform the take.

If you can weed out even some of the bad ones, you will come a lot closer to break even on the remainder. If you are really good, you'll do better than that.

Throw a rebate on top of that and you are likely to net out to small profits.

[DeanT]

I think playing favorites in a rebate situation has some merit.

Some broad groups of favorites tend to outperform the take.

If you can weed out even some of the bad ones, you will come a lot closer to break even on the remainder. If you are really good, you'll do better than that.

Throw a rebate on top of that and you are likely to net out to small profits.
Easier said than done. This game is tough. It is a grind.

There are bad faves for sure, but identifying them whether you are getting 5% back or nothing back is the same proposition. Go on betfair right now and have a look. An even money shot on the board will be 2.94 (9-5) at BF. Overlay or bad chalk with smart money running away from it? It's tough to know.

We fear the unknown and because we get our head kicked in so often in racing, that fear is sensationalized, imo. It is a hard game for whales or for minnows, but whales are simply better at their craft and that is a fact. Two years ago the ELP pick 4 was going on and there were many players on the board that did not play it. The pick 4 was a 18% rebate, better than any whale will get. But people still lost that played it, and others ran away and could not find an edge, and others ignored it, eventho they complain about rebates now. They were getting a huge rebate on par with any whale, but would not do the work to even take advantage of it. This is a hard game at 21% rakes or 14% rakes. There is no magic bullet out there, imo.