A new way to handicap ?

[MONEY]

Yesterday I went to Sam Houston Racetrack to place some bets. I hate the place because it stinks. But I won't open an online account so that I won't be tempted to bet on the races that I threw out earlier.

Anyway, when I walked in they handed me a form for a free handicapping contest. The object of the contest was to pick which 2 horses would finish last and next to last in each of 4 races.
The races were:
Keeneland's races 7 & 9, Laurel's R#9 & Hawthorne's 9th race.

After I handed in my entry, I decided to take it one step further.
I decided to start with the 5 longest shots on the morning line (in the races listed above) and to look for the two horses among those five that won't finish last or next to last. I would keep those horses add the next three longest and then repeat the process until I did all of the horses in a race, and was left with only five horses.

When I got down to 5, I handicapped for which one horse would not finish last instead of which 2 horses won't finish last or which horse is most likely to finish 1st.

This last part was difficult as there were all sorts of reasons for each horse not to finish last. IE: hot trainer or jockey, good record at track for horse, speed figures, you guys know all of this. I don't have to explain it.

With some hard work that I don't think that computers are capable of doing and that I probably won't do again. I kept one horse in each race and played each horse to win. In order not to readboard I will just say that 2 of the horses won and I got paid well.
money

[HUSKER55]

You sound like you have my luck. Can't pick the first two in order and can't pick the last two to come in order in a race either.

At the risk of adding insult to injury, was it a 5 horse field? :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

I guess if somebody handed you a turd with a question mark on it you would be intellectually intrigued!:lol:


"Independance is for the very few,it is a privelage of the strong.And whoever attempts it even with the best right but without inner constraint proves that he is not only strong,but also daring to the point of recklessness.He enters into a labyrinth,he multiplies a thousandfold the dangers which life brings with it in any case,not the least of which is that no one can see how and where he loses his way,becomes lonely,and is torn piecemeal by some minotaur of conscience.Suppose one like that comes to grief,this happens so far from the comprehension of men that they neither feel it nor symapthize.And he cannot go back any longer.Nor can he go back to the pity of men."-Nietzsche(Beyond Good And Evil;The Free Spirit-29)

[Tom Barrister]

I decided to start with the 5 longest shots on the morning line (in the races listed above) and to look for the two horses among those five that won't finish last or next to last. I would keep those horses add the next three longest and then repeat the process until I did all of the horses in a race, and was left with only five horses.

When I got down to 5, I handicapped for which one horse would not finish last instead of which 2 horses won't finish last or which horse is most likely to finish 1st.



That's essentially longshot or "contest" handicapping, or what I call "inverse handicapping". Some players look for the longest shots that have any chance and decide if the odds warrant a bet, relative to the horse's probability.

[cnollfan]

When I got down to 5, I handicapped for which one horse would not finish last instead of which 2 horses won't finish last or which horse is most likely to finish 1st.

This last part was difficult as there were all sorts of reasons for each horse not to finish last. IE: hot trainer or jockey, good record at track for horse, speed figures, you guys know all of this. I don't have to explain it.

With some hard work that I don't think that computers are capable of doing and that I probably won't do again. I kept one horse in each race and played each horse to win. In order not to readboard I will just say that 2 of the horses won and I got paid well.
money

Fascinating post. I am a bit unclear on how you got from the final five down to one. When you say you handicapped for which one horse in the final five would not finish last, was that the horse you bet real money on, or were there other steps?

[MONEY]

Fascinating post. I am a bit unclear on how you got from the final five down to one. When you say you handicapped for which one horse in the final five would not finish last, was that the horse you bet real money on, or were there other steps?
When I got down to the horse that I thought had the least possibility of finishing last out of the final 5, that was the horse that I bet on.

money

[dav4463]

"Yesterday I went to Sam Houston Racetrack to place some bets. I hate the place because it stinks." :lol: :lol: :lol: Why that struck me as funny I don't really know, but it does !



What you do is very similar to the way I handicap. I first look for the two, three, or four races where the favorite looks legitimate. I then go to the other races looking for longshots.

In the longshot races, I throw out the top 4 last race Beyer horses and handicap from there. It's the basis of my handicapping longshot races. I then look for those that have a shot to win or place among the non-top 4 last race Beyer horses. I play my shot to win or win/place and sometimes put with the Beyer horses in exotics.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Fresh thinking!!