Method for betting favorites

[dav4463]

Method for betting favorites:

Start with the first race at the track.

Play race with 9 or fewer starters in it.

*The key: Do you think the favorite is the best horse in this race?

If yes, bet to win if even money or higher.

First bet is $20, second bet is $20, third bet is $40, fourth bet is $80



The most you can lose is $160......profit can be $20 to $60 or so at each track played. (based on $20 bets)


The skill is the ability to identify at least one legitimate winning favorite at each track. Sometimes you can't find four, maybe only three, two, one, or none. But, if you go on the rationale that at least one favorite will win today at this particular track; you should have him.

Once you win.... that track is done for the day.
If two favorites win at the track and you didn't play either one, then you are still done for the day at that track....reasoning is you can't expect that many more favorites to win that day. Your goal is to hit one out of four.

If you are really good at identifying legitimate favorites....you could just do it in four-race segments and not just by track.

Legitimate method or a road to the poor house?

[098poi]

Legitimate method or a road to the poor house?

I think methods like this are doomed to failure. Let's say you make it to an 80 dollar wager and it is an even money shot and you win, well you break even for the day. If you lose then you need a bunch of winning days to catch up. The worst aspect and most likely outcome is that it will work for a while. Maybe 5 or 10 times. Then it misses, and misses again. Then your discipline goes out the window and you try to play catch up. And then you do one of these.:( :bang:

[stu]

First bet is $20, second bet is $20, third bet is $40, fourth bet is $80

The most you can lose is $160......profit can be $20 to $60 or so at each track played. (based on $20 bets)



This is nothing other than a modified Martingale system. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_system)

Even if you are the best handicapper in the world you will eventually go broke with (any form of) the Martingale system.

[Tom]

What you are saying is you are 4X more confident of your 4th bet than your first two?

[RaceBookJoe]

I would never recommend any type of martingale system. Here is something less dangerous but something you might like. First I would just bet any favorite....i would stick to those that "figure". Then apply what is called a "receding due column, plus takeout". I have always used a form of this when I bet on a regular basis...but havent bet much the past few months. Start with a debt column, bet 10% , if you lose add that amount the the debt, bet 10%. For example debt is $100 ( just a number to start your betting ) , first bet is $10....if you lose debt is now $110...next bet $11..etc. Now any time you get a winner...use a takeout on your profit...maybe $2, maybe $5...you have to find your comfort level. Lets say your debt is up to $200....bet is now $20....you win at 2-1 returns $60......put $5 in your takeout wallet...subtract $55 from debt, which is now $145....next bet $15. With good handicapping this should keep you going a long time, debt column goes up and down forever.....but each winner adds to the "profit". This is not for everyone, and it is not the best out there...just something I learned 30 years ago and it was easy for me to understand and use. Whether it is a handicapping method, or money management system...it has to be comfortable for you, and something that you have confidence in. rbj

[dav4463]

I normally play longshots so I have never tried this method. Someone showed it to me and I thought I would put it on the forum and get some feedback. I think I will stick with the longshots!

[dav4463]

What you are saying is you are 4X more confident of your 4th bet than your first two?

The rationale is supposedly, that you can pick at least one favorite to win out of four choices. You have to bet $80 on the fourth one in case you miss the first three. If you miss all four, you have to start over and accept your losses.

If you average a $40 profit on each session where you hit, then you have to win five out of six sessions to show a profit.

[Robert Fischer]

The rationale is supposedly, that you can pick at least one favorite to win out of four choices.

each time is a separate chance of winning. Even if you just lost 3 heavy favorites, your current play is what it is.

[raybo]

Method for betting favorites:

Start with the first race at the track.

Play race with 9 or fewer starters in it.

*The key: Do you think the favorite is the best horse in this race?

If yes, bet to win if even money or higher.

First bet is $20, second bet is $20, third bet is $40, fourth bet is $80



The most you can lose is $160......profit can be $20 to $60 or so at each track played. (based on $20 bets)


The skill is the ability to identify at least one legitimate winning favorite at each track. Sometimes you can't find four, maybe only three, two, one, or none. But, if you go on the rationale that at least one favorite will win today at this particular track; you should have him.

Once you win.... that track is done for the day.
If two favorites win at the track and you didn't play either one, then you are still done for the day at that track....reasoning is you can't expect that many more favorites to win that day. Your goal is to hit one out of four.

If you are really good at identifying legitimate favorites....you could just do it in four-race segments and not just by track.

Legitimate method or a road to the poor house?

Someone with a database could probably check this for you and confirm that it won't work, at least with 1/1 as acceptable minimum odds. I suspect that the higher the acceptable minimum odds are, the better this system would work, but without a database I couldn't be sure about that.

I tend to agree that after 4 losing bets you have to start over.

[misscashalot]

Someone with a database could probably check this for you and confirm that it won't work, at least with 1/1 as acceptable minimum odds. I suspect that the higher the acceptable minimum odds are, the better this system would work, but without a database I couldn't be sure about that.

I tend to agree that after 4 losing bets you have to start over.

Well Yes and no, at least in this current limited study.
Make of it what you wish.
Im not an advocate here.

Bel current meet
From Sept 5th thru Sat Oct 11

47win fav in 108 races 44%
Return for $2 bet $206 loss $10

Playing some sort of progression such as
$2 loss--$4---loss --$8 win etc
makes you a winner
The most consecutive losing plays is 6

Dirt only
Fast track

Date/Race -- Dist -- Surf -- Bet rank of winner -- $2 win payout

090501 6 BD 1 ____ 3.00
090502 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
090503 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
090506 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
090701 1 BD 1 ____ 3.20
090702 6 BD 1 ____ 5.10
090703 6 BD 1 ____ 5.10
090704 7 BD 1 ____ 3.90
090705 6 BD 1 ____ 4.20
090706 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
090707 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
090708 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
090709 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
090710 7 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091001 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091002 6 BD 1 ____ 3.40
091003 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091004 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091008 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091009 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091101 1 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091102 6 BD 1 ____ 3.80
091103 6 BD 1 ____ 7.60
091106 1 BD 8 ____ 0.00
091108 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091201 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091202 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091203 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091206 6 BD 1 ____ 4.80
091209 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091401 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091402 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091403 7 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091404 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091405 6 BD 1 ____ 3.60
091406 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091407 6 BD 1 ____ 6.80
091409 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091702 5 BD 1 ____ 6.70
091703 1 BD 1 ____ 5.40
091704 1 BD 1 ____ 2.80
091705 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091706 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091709 6 BD 1 ____ 4.10
091802 6 BD 1 ____ 5.00
091803 7 BD 1 ____ 4.20
091805 1 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091807 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091901 7 BD 1 ____ 2.80
091902 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091903 6 BD 1 ____ 2.60
091906 5 BD 1 ____ 3.10
092002 7 BD 1 ____ 3.80
092003 7 BD 1 ____ 4.70
092004 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
092008 1 BD 1 ____ 3.50
092009 6 BD 1 ____ 2.70
092102 7 BD 1 ____ 4.70
092103 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
092104 7 BD 1 ____ 4.00
092109 7 BD 4 ____ 0.00
092401 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
092402 6 BD 1 ____ 3.60
092405 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
092409 6 BD 1 ____ 7.70
092502 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
092503 1 BD 6 ____ 0.00
092506 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
092507 1 BD 6 ____ 0.00
092508 1 BD 1 ____ 4.10
100104 1 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100105 6 BD 1 ____ 7.20
100106 1 BD 1 ____ 4.10
100109 6 BD 8 ____ 0.00
100202 6 BD 1 ____ 3.50
100203 1 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100204 6 BD 1 ____ 5.40
100205 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
100206 1 BD 6 ____ 0.00
100207 6 BD 1 ____ 5.20
100301 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100303 1 BD 1 ____ 3.50
100305 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
100306 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100402 7 BD 1 ____ 3.00
100403 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100404 6 BD 1 ____ 4.70
100408 1 BD 3 ____ 0.00
100409 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100801 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
100802 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100803 6 BD 1 ____ 2.90
100805 6 BD 7 ____ 0.00
100809 6 BD 1 ____ 4.20
100901 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
100902 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100905 6 BD 1 ____ 5.50
100907 7 BD 4 ____ 0.00
101002 1 BD 1 ____ 5.00
101003 6 BD 1 ____ 2.70
101005 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
101006 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
101007 7 BD 1 ____ 4.10
101101 6 BD 1 ____ 6.00
101102 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
101103 6 BD 1 ____ 5.50
101104 1 BD 1 ____ 4.20
101107 6 BD 7 ____ 0.00

[dav4463]

Well Yes and no, at least in this current limited study.
Make of it what you wish.
Im not an advocate here.

Bel current meet
From Sept 5th thru Sat Oct 11

47win fav in 108 races 44%
Return for $2 bet $206 loss $10

Playing some sort of progression such as
$2 loss--$4---loss --$8 win etc
makes you a winner
The most consecutive losing plays is 6

Dirt only
Fast track

Date/Race -- Dist -- Surf -- Bet rank of winner -- $2 win payout

090501 6 BD 1 ____ 3.00
090502 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
090503 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
090506 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
090701 1 BD 1 ____ 3.20
090702 6 BD 1 ____ 5.10
090703 6 BD 1 ____ 5.10
090704 7 BD 1 ____ 3.90
090705 6 BD 1 ____ 4.20
090706 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
090707 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
090708 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
090709 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
090710 7 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091001 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091002 6 BD 1 ____ 3.40
091003 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091004 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091008 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091009 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091101 1 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091102 6 BD 1 ____ 3.80
091103 6 BD 1 ____ 7.60
091106 1 BD 8 ____ 0.00
091108 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091201 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091202 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091203 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091206 6 BD 1 ____ 4.80
091209 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091401 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091402 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091403 7 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091404 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091405 6 BD 1 ____ 3.60
091406 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
091407 6 BD 1 ____ 6.80
091409 1 BD 5 ____ 0.00
091702 5 BD 1 ____ 6.70
091703 1 BD 1 ____ 5.40
091704 1 BD 1 ____ 2.80
091705 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091706 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
091709 6 BD 1 ____ 4.10
091802 6 BD 1 ____ 5.00
091803 7 BD 1 ____ 4.20
091805 1 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091807 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
091901 7 BD 1 ____ 2.80
091902 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
091903 6 BD 1 ____ 2.60
091906 5 BD 1 ____ 3.10
092002 7 BD 1 ____ 3.80
092003 7 BD 1 ____ 4.70
092004 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
092008 1 BD 1 ____ 3.50
092009 6 BD 1 ____ 2.70
092102 7 BD 1 ____ 4.70
092103 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
092104 7 BD 1 ____ 4.00
092109 7 BD 4 ____ 0.00
092401 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
092402 6 BD 1 ____ 3.60
092405 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
092409 6 BD 1 ____ 7.70
092502 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
092503 1 BD 6 ____ 0.00
092506 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
092507 1 BD 6 ____ 0.00
092508 1 BD 1 ____ 4.10
100104 1 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100105 6 BD 1 ____ 7.20
100106 1 BD 1 ____ 4.10
100109 6 BD 8 ____ 0.00
100202 6 BD 1 ____ 3.50
100203 1 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100204 6 BD 1 ____ 5.40
100205 6 BD 6 ____ 0.00
100206 1 BD 6 ____ 0.00
100207 6 BD 1 ____ 5.20
100301 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100303 1 BD 1 ____ 3.50
100305 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
100306 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100402 7 BD 1 ____ 3.00
100403 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100404 6 BD 1 ____ 4.70
100408 1 BD 3 ____ 0.00
100409 1 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100801 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
100802 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
100803 6 BD 1 ____ 2.90
100805 6 BD 7 ____ 0.00
100809 6 BD 1 ____ 4.20
100901 6 BD 5 ____ 0.00
100902 6 BD 2 ____ 0.00
100905 6 BD 1 ____ 5.50
100907 7 BD 4 ____ 0.00
101002 1 BD 1 ____ 5.00
101003 6 BD 1 ____ 2.70
101005 6 BD 4 ____ 0.00
101006 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
101007 7 BD 1 ____ 4.10
101101 6 BD 1 ____ 6.00
101102 6 BD 3 ____ 0.00
101103 6 BD 1 ____ 5.50
101104 1 BD 1 ____ 4.20
101107 6 BD 7 ____ 0.00


44% is ridiculous. You would think by being selective you could hit 55% with that kind of a favorite win rate.

[misscashalot]

44% is ridiculous. You would think by being selective you could hit 55% with that kind of a favorite win rate.

Huh?

[raybo]

44% is ridiculous. You would think by being selective you could hit 55% with that kind of a favorite win rate.

:confused: 44% is the hit rate.

[dav4463]

I thought you meant 44% winners from all the races at Belmont were favorites, so I was thinking if you could throw out some of the losers you could hit 55%

[misscashalot]

I thought you meant 44% winners from all the races at Belmont were favorites, so I was thinking if you could throw out some of the losers you could hit 55%

OK

to show you how fickle the tracks plays
when the dirt is listed as off (g-m-s)
11 win favs in 47 races 23%

[dav4463]

Some people make money playing legitimate favorites. I don't know how they do it. The hardest thing for me is picking a winner between an 8/5 horse and a 2/1 horse.

It is easier for me to hit one 11/1 horse than three 3/1 horses.

[podonne]

This is nothing other than a modified Martingale system. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_system)

Even if you are the best handicapper in the world you will eventually go broke with (any form of) the Martingale system.

So, its not a martingale system. (it doesn't double, there is a hard limit). Winning five out of six "sessions" it probably a tall order, though.