LottaKash
10-10-2008, 02:35 PM
Hey All, I notice lately that horses that are coming off their little vacations for whatever reasons, are beginning to do well lately ?...Actually extremely well as of this past week........
Coincidence ?..Nah, IT happens every year around this time, and it has been my experience to make an adjustment to my contender selections with this in my mind at this most welcome time in the handicapping year...
As each month passes the horses are beginning to show the wear and tear of being at war for so long and so deep into the year......Often times, at this time of the year, you may think you are onto a little goody, meaning he has all the supportive handicapping elements and he is a sharp horse at least based on his last contested race, so, you get your decent odds and make a play on it, only to find that he underperformed or was totally involved early on in this race and just got very tired at the end of his mile.....This is what happens at this time of the year.....Many formerly consistent horses will become in-and-outers, running a good race followed by a not so good race, and they will keeping you guessing on how this horse really is in his form-cylce.....These are some of the tell tale signs of an overraced horse, badly in need of some R & R....Greedy trainers and owners keep exploiting their good horses abilities, only to have their horses underperform as a result...
Once a horse gets past his 25 races for the season, anything more. becomes less reliable and our Win record becomes diluted......This is where many systems and methods will become flawed, as the procedure, or the machine can't or doesn't take the "tiredness factor" into consideration......
These past 2-weeks, and it seems almost "all of sudden", a barrage of fresh horse have come into play and in a big way.......I could list a multitude of this happening at a bunch of Harness tracks, as I am always on top of what is happening in at least 6-major tracks , and I have noticed this same yearly phenomenon occuring and increasingly so, at all of these venues.....To check this out, get your past performances for the last week or two, and I believe you will see what I am driving at........
I am especially alert for fresh horses who have That Back Class Thing going for them, and now the good trainer, after a start or two or even off of a very good qualifier, will now have his horse entered properly into conditions that suit his horse in his current condition, and they are now popping like popcorn......
I label these "P" horses, a PQ is a back class horse coming off of a qualifying race, and a P1 has had 1 start since coming back, and P5 has had had 5 starts since then, you get the picture......After P5 or 6 this angle will lose much of it importance, and if the horse hasn't done anything to suggest good current form, than I will lessen its import accordingly.......
By now, I am sure you have come to understand the meaning of my post, it is a "Friendly Reminder" to stand ready and give extra credit for the Fresh Horse at this time of the year, it has been really showing up in the last 1/8 of the mile lately...Right on schedule.........:jump:
humbly,
Coincidence ?..Nah, IT happens every year around this time, and it has been my experience to make an adjustment to my contender selections with this in my mind at this most welcome time in the handicapping year...
As each month passes the horses are beginning to show the wear and tear of being at war for so long and so deep into the year......Often times, at this time of the year, you may think you are onto a little goody, meaning he has all the supportive handicapping elements and he is a sharp horse at least based on his last contested race, so, you get your decent odds and make a play on it, only to find that he underperformed or was totally involved early on in this race and just got very tired at the end of his mile.....This is what happens at this time of the year.....Many formerly consistent horses will become in-and-outers, running a good race followed by a not so good race, and they will keeping you guessing on how this horse really is in his form-cylce.....These are some of the tell tale signs of an overraced horse, badly in need of some R & R....Greedy trainers and owners keep exploiting their good horses abilities, only to have their horses underperform as a result...
Once a horse gets past his 25 races for the season, anything more. becomes less reliable and our Win record becomes diluted......This is where many systems and methods will become flawed, as the procedure, or the machine can't or doesn't take the "tiredness factor" into consideration......
These past 2-weeks, and it seems almost "all of sudden", a barrage of fresh horse have come into play and in a big way.......I could list a multitude of this happening at a bunch of Harness tracks, as I am always on top of what is happening in at least 6-major tracks , and I have noticed this same yearly phenomenon occuring and increasingly so, at all of these venues.....To check this out, get your past performances for the last week or two, and I believe you will see what I am driving at........
I am especially alert for fresh horses who have That Back Class Thing going for them, and now the good trainer, after a start or two or even off of a very good qualifier, will now have his horse entered properly into conditions that suit his horse in his current condition, and they are now popping like popcorn......
I label these "P" horses, a PQ is a back class horse coming off of a qualifying race, and a P1 has had 1 start since coming back, and P5 has had had 5 starts since then, you get the picture......After P5 or 6 this angle will lose much of it importance, and if the horse hasn't done anything to suggest good current form, than I will lessen its import accordingly.......
By now, I am sure you have come to understand the meaning of my post, it is a "Friendly Reminder" to stand ready and give extra credit for the Fresh Horse at this time of the year, it has been really showing up in the last 1/8 of the mile lately...Right on schedule.........:jump:
humbly,