It's a great time to be afraid

[pktruckdriver]

America should be afraid, are you?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/News/TheEconomyDyn.aspx?cp-documentid=11016262


Has anyone here lost from this crash, anyone lose your savings in this mess, to be honest with you I know no one personally that has lost anything in this crisis.


That statement is kinda sad, but then again the friends that I have in Low Places has no portfolio to worry about, or big money in the Banks or CU's, it seems that at least now it is ok to be paycheck to paycheck, that is if the paycheck can keep coming, which I admit is getting me nervous, without it I am doomed.


How are the memebers here on this board weathering this mess??


I read where some of you are salivating at the possible deals to be had when things supposedly settles down and begins to rebound.


Is the worse to come, and how bad do you think it will be??

Will there be big bank failures, like Bank of America/Chase/Citibank or will they survive.

Should we get our money out?

Will Real Estate recover, how low will house price fall, anyone got a guess??

Will foreclosed houses be given a mulligan?

Any guess on how bad things will get.


Knowing this was coming could I have made money when the markets started to dive like they have, are there people making money on our countries lossess??

[delayjf]

Look on the bright side, gas is coming down and soon you might be on the road again. :)

[ddog]

No, there is no reason to be afraid of this stuff.

My best guess is that if you want to profit some from this , it's too late(I hope) to be in short side , so if you have a few bucks wait until the end of the year and then buy the worst looking finance large cap stocks and or some long etf funds and hang on.

ultra short etfs. :ThmbUp:
Even I never thought the run would be this violent in those ultra short etf funds.
Wild.

Take this for what it cost you to get it.

[Marshall Bennett]

Every day I think maybe the market had hit bottom , then it takes another dive . I truely beleive we're in unchartered territory here . I don't beleive the feds or anyone else really know what to do ... and wall street knows that as well . :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

All this hand wringing over the market....has everyone lost the ability to look at a long term chart?

Look at the S&P monthly chart going back 20 years. There is a clear as day double top that formed in late 2007.

Look back to March of 2000. That's the month the Clinton tech-bubble burst, sending the S&P from 1552 down to 775 in less than 2.5 years (throw 9/11 in there as well).

Fast forward to October of 2007 when the S&P hit a high of 1576. It is now down to 909...and it's only been one year.

What I'm getting at is, this kind of drop isn't some sort of historic thingy....in fact, there is easily more to go before it hits a solid area of support around 800.

If it blows past 750-800, then we are in serious trouble. Uncharted territory.

As I type this, S&P futures were DOWN 30 points to 881 at around 8:22pm. They have since rebounded a bit.

If you look at the DOW, it is looking at support at around 7400-8000, so it too has a little bit more to go....if it breaks that level, next stop is probably 7000 and beyond....

Apparently, Nikkei futures are down over 12% in Japan, again as I type this....that is scary....

Friday may turn out to be any kind of day....

[highnote]

If the latest plan for injection of liquidity into banks doesn't work the Dow 7,000 is in the cards. Still, there are going to be some good bargains after the first of the year.

There will be (is?) a lot of end of the year tax-loss selling that may keep the market depressed. But as stocks are bought back after the first of the year we could see a rebound.

Then again, I could be wrong.

[dav4463]

Dallas/Ft.Worth home sales are up. How can that be explained?

[pktruckdriver]

Maybe thiong just have to get to where they should actully be.....


I have this concept that like the problem with ENRON and others was that they had inflated their value, right?

Well I think this country has been running on inflated values for years now and it has caught up with us.

Kinda like writing a check you can not clear/cash.

Am I totally insane here, or maybe on the right track?

[Dave Schwartz]

Anybody care to check on the DOW price exactly 20 years ago today? I believe it was about 13 points higher than it closed today. We just lost 20 years of growth.

[Valuist]

Anybody care to check on the DOW price exactly 20 years ago today? I believe it was about 13 points higher than it closed today. We just lost 20 years of growth.

That's not correct. I just looked it up on Yahoo. It closed today at 8,579 and closed on 10/09/88 at 2,150.

The real significant comparison is the close from 9 years ago today; on Oct 9, 1999: the Dow closed at 10,649. Over the last 9 years, the Dow is DOWN 19%.

[Dave Schwartz]

Guess I had a bad source. Thanks for correcting my mistake.

[DeanT]

Guess I had a bad source. Thanks for correcting my mistake.

Dave: http://www.nyse.tv/djia-chart-history.htm

[ddog]

All this hand wringing over the market....has everyone lost the ability to look at a long term chart?

Look at the S&P monthly chart going back 20 years. There is a clear as day double top that formed in late 2007.

Look back to March of 2000. That's the month the Clinton tech-bubble burst, sending the S&P from 1552 down to 775 in less than 2.5 years (throw 9/11 in there as well).

Fast forward to October of 2007 when the S&P hit a high of 1576. It is now down to 909...and it's only been one year.

What I'm getting at is, this kind of drop isn't some sort of historic thingy....in fact, there is easily more to go before it hits a solid area of support around 800.

If it blows past 750-800, then we are in serious trouble. Uncharted territory.

As I type this, S&P futures were DOWN 30 points to 881 at around 8:22pm. They have since rebounded a bit.

If you look at the DOW, it is looking at support at around 7400-8000, so it too has a little bit more to go....if it breaks that level, next stop is probably 7000 and beyond....

Apparently, Nikkei futures are down over 12% in Japan, again as I type this....that is scary....

Friday may turn out to be any kind of day....

Pa, ok, i get it, but to think we are not always in uncharted territory, well.....

It ain't goin to zero and I still have some ultra short pos left, so take err down baby.

it's only paper.

But, to be fair Pa, if you were sitting with all your savings(?) in a 401k , etc, that was down 30-40% then I can see those people being hand wringers.

There is no sure thing bet that lose will come back to them within 5-10 years.

One other thing, someone better be paying attention to the deficit, we are going to blow off top that thing soon.
You think pressure on rates, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Oh, and the Fed handling of the rates in looking back on this will have seen to be exactly the wrong thing, these neg Fed rates are still wrong wrong wrong.

[Charli125]

First a quick word about my finances. I am only 28 years old, but I have zero debt, and have put together a nice sized chunk of cash. I also have a hefty 401K. All of which would have enabled me to retire before 40. I have given half of my cash to a financial adviser that is known as one of the best, and has 100's of millions of dollars under his control.

During the past two days he has lost over %50 of that money. My net worth is roughly 75% of what it was 2 days ago. That's not even factoring in all of the stocks and mutual funds that I'm personally invested in because I know that those will eventually go back up. Unfortunately they had some of my money in the options markets, and that's been wiped out.

I'm not saying this because I want you to feel bad for me. I'm just saying that there are a lot of people out there who have done all the right things, and are still hurting. Fortunately I'm young enough that my money will build it's way back. The ones who are suffering the worst are the ones that are nearing retirement age that just lost 40% of their retirement income.

[ddog]

Wow, to be 28 again.

You are in for one of the best wealth building opportunites, maybe the best one I have seen in 45 years.

Keep your head and educate yourself and handle your own money.

You have it all there for you.


Good luck, sounds like you have a good shot.


Wow, to be 28 again.

:ThmbUp:

[RaceBookJoe]

First a quick word about my finances. I am only 28 years old, but I have zero debt, and have put together a nice sized chunk of cash. I also have a hefty 401K. All of which would have enabled me to retire before 40. I have given half of my cash to a financial adviser that is known as one of the best, and has 100's of millions of dollars under his control.

During the past two days he has lost over %50 of that money. My net worth is roughly 75% of what it was 2 days ago. That's not even factoring in all of the stocks and mutual funds that I'm personally invested in because I know that those will eventually go back up. Unfortunately they had some of my money in the options markets, and that's been wiped out.

I'm not saying this because I want you to feel bad for me. I'm just saying that there are a lot of people out there who have done all the right things, and are still hurting. Fortunately I'm young enough that my money will build it's way back. The ones who are suffering the worst are the ones that are nearing retirement age that just lost 40% of their retirement income.

The ones nearing or in retirement are the ones i worry about. You seem to have your head on straight....plus like you say, you can always make more money. Keep doing what you are doing and if you have time, study the markets and become your own financial advisor...no one loves your money more than you do. rbj

[Charli125]

Keep doing what you are doing and if you have time, study the markets and become your own financial advisor...no one loves your money more than you do. rbj

That is some of the best advice I've ever heard. I wish someone would've said that to me 2 years ago when I decided to use a "professional".

Thanks for the positive comments. It's always nice to be reminded that things aren't as bad as they seem.

[chickenhead]

time to be afraid is when everything is going swimmingly.

If money put in now is not money good with some kind of real returns in 10,20, and 30 years..you won't need money anyway, just some farmland, a horse, and a rifle, because commerce will have stopped altogether.

[witchdoctor]

I got a couple of horses. Anyone want to buy one? :D

[chickenhead]

funny as I do already have the farmland and the rifle...but I'm thinking I'll hold off on the hayburner till I need it. :D

[chickenhead]

the other thing worth remembering, in good times and bad...is we're all going to 0 eventually. Act accordingly.

[RaceBookJoe]

That is some of the best advice I've ever heard. I wish someone would've said that to me 2 years ago when I decided to use a "professional".

Thanks for the positive comments. It's always nice to be reminded that things aren't as bad as they seem.

You have to stay positive even during hard times. You cant always choose your situations..but you can always choose your attitude on how you will deal with those situations. I believe we will get through this. Lot of panic out there...the main reason is that it is plastered all over the place. Before the information age, only the wall streeters knew what was going on, onw everyone can find stuff. This market will bottom when everyone has been scared out, so dont listen to market timers..it will bottom when it bottoms!! At some point, us greedy americans will say that there is value out there and the money will come back in. The only reason I am positive is that no matter what changes, human psychology doesnt....thats why market cycles come and go and come back again. The point I am trying to press is learn what to do and be ready. rbj

[Dave Schwartz]

I got a couple of horses. Anyone want to buy one?


As a learned man once said to me, "Never buy anything that eats while you sleep. You just can't keep up."


Wait... I think that was you who told me that.

[witchdoctor]

As a learned man once said to me, "Never buy anything that eats while you sleep. You just can't keep up."


Wait... I think that was you who told me that.

May well have been. :D

And my wife reminds me of that every time the bills comedue.