Pacemaster Steve Wolson

[timtam]

I just picked up Steve Wolsons newest spot play method called

Pacemaster. It strictly favors front running types who can wire the field.

My question is with all the synthetic surfaces around now isn't this type

of horse one you wouldn't be looking for?

[michiken]

I think that sythetics can be run wire to wire provided that the horse gets soft first and second fractions. Happens all the time but not as much so as on dirt.

[cj]

Do you dismiss front runners on turf? Of course not. That said, the shorter the distance, the better chance of the front running type.

[BillW]

Do you dismiss front runners on turf? Of course not. That said, the shorter the distance, the better chance of the front running type.

Lower hit rate but nice scores. Positive ROI definitely possible.

[cnollfan]

My specialty is speed on the turf.

[andicap]

Why speculater? Let's go to the videotape -- figuratively speaking.
all stats past 30 days. Courtesy of HTR's track profile.
Excludes yesterday (Thursday)

Arlington 6f 18 races. 56% horses won wire to wire!
AP 6.5 F 12 races. 50% won W2W.

Turfway 6f. 30 races. 30% won W2W
Turfway 6.5F 34 races. 32% won W2W

SA 6f 27 races. 11% won W2W
SA 6.5F 13 races. 23% W2W

Wood 6f 46 races. 11% W2W.
Wood 6.5f 13 races. 31% W2W
Wood 7F 40 races. 25% W2W

Presque Isle 31 races. 32% W2W

Other data

KEE last 365 days
6f. 65 races. 25% W2W
6.5F 26 races. 31% W2W
7f 54 races. 22% W2W
@7f 16 races. 13% W2W

HOL last 365
6f. 146 races. 18% W2W
6.5 112 races. 30% W2W
7f. 88 races. 19% W2W

GG last 365

6f. 388 races. 26% W2W

When you look at how horses who were in the top three at the first call did, the results are mixed, but many are below average.

Example
Kee 6f. 48% of the horses who were 1-3 won the race meaning 52% came from fourth or further.

At GG it was 59% in the first three winning at 6f

But so far at SA at 6f only 37% in top three have won this week (again excluding Thursday).

At Arlington it was 78% at 6f, a very atypical figure!

For the record HTR says "normal" for dirt sprints is 25% W2W 60% in the top 3 at the first call.

[misscashalot]

Why speculater? Let's go to the videotape -- figuratively speaking.
all stats past 30 days. Courtesy of HTR's track profile.
Excludes yesterday (Thursday)

Arlington 6f 18 races. 56% horses won wire to wire!
AP 6.5 F 12 races. 50% won W2W.

Turfway 6f. 30 races. 30% won W2W
Turfway 6.5F 34 races. 32% won W2W

SA 6f 27 races. 11% won W2W
SA 6.5F 13 races. 23% W2W

Wood 6f 46 races. 11% W2W.
Wood 6.5f 13 races. 31% W2W
Wood 7F 40 races. 25% W2W

Presque Isle 31 races. 32% W2W

Other data

KEE last 365 days
6f. 65 races. 25% W2W
6.5F 26 races. 31% W2W
7f 54 races. 22% W2W
@7f 16 races. 13% W2W

HOL last 365
6f. 146 races. 18% W2W
6.5 112 races. 30% W2W
7f. 88 races. 19% W2W

GG last 365

6f. 388 races. 26% W2W

When you look at how horses who were in the top three at the first call did, the results are mixed, but many are below average.

Example
Kee 6f. 48% of the horses who were 1-3 won the race meaning 52% came from fourth or further.

At GG it was 59% in the first three winning at 6f

But so far at SA at 6f only 37% in top three have won this week (again excluding Thursday).

At Arlington it was 78% at 6f, a very atypical figure!

For the record HTR says "normal" for dirt sprints is 25% W2W 60% in the top 3 at the first call.

Ill just add some more info here, perhaps it's useful.

At Belmont for the entire year of 2007 at 6f dirt 99/180 races (55%)
were won by horses no worse than 2nd at any call according to chart

So far this year 83/173 (48%)

the numbers for w2w (lead at every call according to chart)
2007 56/180 (31%)
2008 53/173 (31%)

[Tom Barrister]

Here's a year's HTR database, from June 1, 2007 to May 32, 2008, at the tracks I use (the major and medium sized tracks/circuits).

This is the winning percentage by the actual leader (from the charts) at the second call of the race. For the dirt races, the first figure is on a "fast" track, and the second is for an "off" track.


5.0d 46.2 46.5
5.5d 43.9 46.2
6.0d 42.3 43.9
6.5d 37.3 30.9
7.0d 31.8 29.5
8.0d 27.9 28.7
8.3d 28.9 32.7
8.5d 26.0 30.6
9.0d 23.0 26.7

5.0t 40.1
8.0+t 17.1

6.0p 31.4
6.5p 27.3
7.0p 21.1
8.0+p 19.1


It's no surprise that speed holds better on dirt than on turf or polytrack, and no surprise that it holds a little better on "off" tracks than on fast ones, although there's no breakdown of off tracks by type (sloppy, good, slow, etc.).

[pandy]

I just picked up Steve Wolsons newest spot play method called

Pacemaster. It strictly favors front running types who can wire the field.

My question is with all the synthetic surfaces around now isn't this type

of horse one you wouldn't be looking for?

I don't have any records on it, but I'm more confident playing speed going two turns on synthetic, especially from an inside post in a field that lacks speed. In sprints there's more pace pressure.