Identify your strengths

[dav4463]

I think it is important to identify your strengths. I took a look back at over 1,000 races that I have handicapped.

I found that my best results come from Maiden Claiming Races and Maiden Sp Wt races at cheaper tracks.

Next was dirt claiming routes at the same cheap tracks (those are by far my best longshot plays using a "method" that I devised).

Sprints at major tracks and all stakes races are my weakest performances.

I broke it down by turf/dirt....claiming, allowance, stakes.......sprints or routes........at major, mid-level, and cheap tracks.

It has really helped me to narrow down my most bettable and profitable races while avoiding those that for me are just a guessing game.

If not for hitting the Belmont, my stakes race handicapping would rival the worst handicappers in history!

This is fairly simple, but if you take the time to do it.....it just might help you turn the corner. I learned that I LOVE cheap maiden races and many times in the past, those were races I would avoid!

[Imriledup]

I don't know if this is my strength or not, but i love extremely cheap races. In those races, you can basically toss half the field without having to do all that much research, some horses just can't run at all. In a stakes race, even the longest shots have talent, so you have to beat a talented horse who can always have his 'best day' and run over your money. In the bad races, those professional slowpokes are easier to beat.

I like races where i can predict the internal pace with the most accuracy. If i can't predict how the race will unfold and how fast the early pace will be, than its really much harder to handicap. I stay away any races longer than a mile and a 16h, because when you get into the marathon stuff, your horse can become a victim of the early pace and i dont want to get beat with the best horse because he was too far back of a slow pace or too close to a fast one.

This is why i like 6F races....i know the pace will be pretty honest and most times, if you bet on the best horse, you're gonna win. In any races OTHER than 6f (or 5.5) you are at the mercy of pace. Its hard to pick winners, so you can't be getting beat when you have the right horse because you miscalculated the internal pace of the race.

I don't like turf races as much as dirt races ...i can't tell you how many times some bad horse got loose on the turf and hung around and got in the middle of my trifecta or exacta bets.....i dont think that happens as much on the dirt.

6.5 races are also great to bet against speed. Those jocks ride those races like sprint races, but you get the extra half furlong to nail the speed that was 'sent' like it was a shorter race. Most jocks ride sprints like sprints and don't differentiate between a 6 or a 6.5 race.

[WinterTriangle]

I think it is important to identify your strengths.

I found that my best results come from Maiden Claiming Races and Maiden Sp Wt races

Funny, that was mine, too. For others, this would be a crap-shoot. I do TERRIBLE on stakes races, which surprised me.

Also, I have to do what I enjoy.

Without some element of enjoyment, handicapping can be drudgery for some, complete with antacids, stress, etc. Not interested in going down that road, cause I've quit "better" jobs. :)

[trying2win]

Great post Dave! http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/113.gif


T2W

[DanG]

I think it is important to identify your strengths.
Extremely important and it all comes down to one of the least glamorous parts of this game…record keeping.

My ‘avatar of choice is of Jaco Pastorious. (Being a bass player he is / was the gold standard on electric fretless.). In an instructional video he said he asks his students if they can read music. When they reply…”I can read a little bit” he knows they really can’t at all.

I believe the same applies to gambling on horses. For every 100 players who “claim” they keep records, there are maybe 5 among them who actually do. Besides the obvious tax ramifications; they are the single most underutilized tool to improve your game.

Beyond individual race success; good records should drive you into the correct pools. If your obsessed with becoming a P4 player and really don’t have a handle on lightly raced maiden’s you will be forced to spread inefficiently within most P4 sequences at major tracks for example.

With programs like “Bettor Keep Track” (Gordon Pine I believe) and all the spreadsheet options available there aren’t many excuses not to anymore. Of course; it is like going to deranged dental student after a lousy day. :eek: It frankly sucks to sit down for a ½ hour + reliving bad beats, but months later it will an incredible tool that will help focus your funds.

[Dan Montilion]

My records for the past two weeks prove I have NO strengths.

[cmoore]

I don't keep records. But my strengths are 2 year old mdn races. Especially first time starters. Bombs Away Baby!!!!!

[riskman]

My records for the past two weeks prove I have NO strengths.

Yes you do. You are a record keeper. BTW I always enjoy your posts it makes me :)

[DanG]

My records for the past two weeks prove I have NO strengths.
LOL :D

Followed immediately by a two week period disproving this conclusion.

[dav4463]

My records for the past two weeks prove I have NO strengths.


Two weeks is nothing! Those strengths are just dormant for a while!

[Marlin]

Interesting that many (me 2) consider 2YOs, MSW, and MCL strengths. To me it points out a strength of analyzing an event with relatively little info. (less PPs). Or maybe it points out a flaw with analyzing larger quantities of info. (many PPs)Perhaps less is more. Not enough info to muddy an opinion.:)

[bigmack]

I don't keep records. But my strengths are 2 year old mdn races. Especially first time starters. Bombs Away Baby!!!!!
Have you gone completely crackers? You don't keep records? You bad.

I even yap into a little voice recorder what I was thinking about and why I was about to play the race the way I did. Software puts that into text on the computer and I learn a whole lot about my success or lack thereof, from me. Then again, we're all creatures of habit.

[dav4463]

Interesting that many (me 2) consider 2YOs, MSW, and MCL strengths. To me it points out a strength of analyzing an event with relatively little info. (less PPs). Or maybe it points out a flaw with analyzing larger quantities of info. (many PPs)Perhaps less is more. Not enough info to muddy an opinion.:)


I think that it is easier to completely toss horses that may never win in their lifetime. Also, there are tipoffs with maidens that show they are ready to run. Speed and fade is big. Class moves are more important. Trainer stats have more meaning with maidens.

[podonne]

Besides the obvious tax ramifications; they are the single most underutilized tool to improve your game.

Can you deduct gambling losses? If so, i think tax implications are the last thing on many people's minds...

[cmoore]

I think that it is easier to completely toss horses that may never win in their lifetime. Also, there are tipoffs with maidens that show they are ready to run. Speed and fade is big. Class moves are more important. Trainer stats have more meaning with maidens.

I'll bet the top sprint sires in a 2 year old mdn race if the odds are right no matter who the trainer is. They usually get out of the gate fast and that's all I ask for. I very rarely will let a Dance Master first timer get by without a bet..Another one is an Elusive Quality first timer on the turf..

[LottaKash]

In the more recent of times, I have noticed that I have gotten very good at identifying the True-Class(s) of the race..... I try to concentrate mostly on this strength now, and then everyting else that I consider as important, being either supportive or detrimental to the Class-horse, will help me decide to play or pass.....Most of my best plays have come from the True-class horse having some hidden or awakening form, and/or a quality fraction(s), or an angle or a class manipulation associated with it in it's recent performance(s), suggesting positive trainer intentions on race-day....

Class and Form and a competitive Speed Rating, nothing like it....I demand no less.....

humbly,

[raybo]

In the more recent of times, I have noticed that I have gotten very good at identifying the True-Class(s) of the race..... I try to concentrate mostly on this strength now, and then everyting else that I consider as important, being either supportive or detrimental to the Class-horse, will help me decide to play or pass.....Most of my best plays have come from the True-class horse having some hidden or awakening form, and/or a quality fraction(s), or an angle or a class manipulation associated with it in it's recent performance(s), suggesting positive trainer intentions on race-day....

Class and Form and a competitive Speed Rating, nothing like it....I demand no less.....

humbly,

Class, or pace and final quarter or so, is my main focus in the claiming ranks (3yo and up). Cheaper claimers plus past "class" are what makes my superfecta methods tick. Form is the kicker here and the hardest thing for most to figure along with trainer intent. Adjustments for track and distance changes are another sticking point for most.

[DanG]

tax implications are the last thing on many people's minds...
“Many” peoples minds…You may be right, but I’ve been audited twice and trust me you want some sort of record keeping when it happens. I don’t care if it’s a shoe box of notes and betting slips, you need to think ahead. If your betting exotics at all its sound practice to keep detailed records going back 3 years.

[Bobzilla]

I'll bet the top sprint sires in a 2 year old mdn race if the odds are right no matter who the trainer is. They usually get out of the gate fast and that's all I ask for. I very rarely will let a Dance Master first timer get by without a bet..Another one is an Elusive Quality first timer on the turf..


No doubt about it, getting out of the gate fast is key. In many sprints the race is decided at the break, especially with the young ones. Elusive Qualitys first time turf, excellent! I myself have been having success with Malibu Moons first time turf.

[Bubba X]

Good thread.

I think playing to your strength is critical. The only thing more critical is developing that strength and having the resolve to stick with it. I believe there are many ways to win but I do firmly believe unless you are able to devote 30+ hours per week, it is incredibly difficult to win betting many races, playing multiple tracks or betting horizontal exotics.

I do think it is possible to win playing horizontals but as a bettor who puts in about 20-25 hours a week handicapping, I don't think I have the time to do enough work on enough races to wager on pick 3's or 4's.

My wagering strategy is based on one principle; if I think a favorite is worthy (or "near-worthy") of the odds to which it is bet, the race is absolutely unplayable. To beat takeout, it is the only viable strategy that can work, at least for me.

I focus solely on one track and while I use traditional handicapping data, my play is based on betting races where I have TWO strong opinions:

1. A negative opinion on the chances of the favorite to the extent that it is overbet by a factor well in excess of what I consider fair odds.

2. A positive opinion on another horse I whose fair odds are I feel are far lower than actual odds.

I only bet races that bring these factors together and play win as well as verticals keying my "positive" opinion horse and excluding the favorite. Most of my evaluation is based on prior trips/setups and projected race dynamics.

I make, on average, 1-2 plays a week. It may not seem like very much action, but I'm betting enough on the races I play that it does indeed hurt when I'm wrong. I'm just thankful that I can be interested in every race I see without feeling the need to gamble constantly.

Whatever your strategy, I wish you great luck!

[rufus999]

I think it is important to identify your strengths. I took a look back at over 1,000 races that I have handicapped.

Sprints at major tracks and all stakes races are my weakest performances.

If not for hitting the Belmont, my stakes race handicapping would rival the worst handicappers in history!



Probably because these two areas require the most skill. The other categories simply involve guessing and hunch playing primarily. In other words, any child could do it.

rufus:9::9::9:

[dav4463]

So, I should continue to lose money playing races that require the most skill and give back the money I win "playing hunch plays and guessing"? :confused:

[rufus999]

So, I should continue to lose money playing races that require the most skill and give back the money I win "playing hunch plays and guessing"? :confused:

Self appointed expert handicappers will never admit to playing hunches or guessing. However, they do it all the time with what they euphemistically term 'hedging'. Its part of the game.:cool:

rufus:9::9::9:

[raybo]

Self appointed expert handicappers will never admit to playing hunches or guessing. However, they do it all the time with what they euphemistically term 'hedging'. Its part of the game.:cool:

rufus:9::9::9:

"Hunch plays" and "guessing" are 2 different things, at least from my standpoint.

[rufus999]

"Hunch plays" and "guessing" are 2 different things, at least from my standpoint.

no argument there.:cool:

rufus:9::9::9:

[raybo]

no argument there.:cool:

rufus:9::9::9:

Sometimes your subconscious (or whatever you want to call it) tells you something different than what your handicapping method is telling you. It's wise to at least try to verify that information before placing a wager. And sometimes it's so strong that even if not verifiable you might want to play it anyway, especially if there is added value in it (odds).

[rufus999]

Sometimes your subconscious (or whatever you want to call it) tells you something different than what your handicapping method is telling you. It's wise to at least try to verify that information before placing a wager. And sometimes it's so strong that even if not verifiable you might want to play it anyway, especially if there is added value in it (odds).

Not that I want to belabor a point, but, where's the hunch and where's the guess here? I think I see the hunch... the guess I'm not so sure about.:)

rufus:9::9::9:

[dav4463]

A guess is just a guess.

A hunch is when, despite the numbers, something tells you to bet a certain horse.

Maybe the horse looks right at you with that "I'm going to win look" in the paddock!

[raybo]

Not that I want to belabor a point, but, where's the hunch and where's the guess here? I think I see the hunch... the guess I'm not so sure about.:)

rufus:9::9::9:

A guess usually occurs when you're confused. You try to make something out of jibberish, etc., forcing a play when there isn't one.

A hunch can occur, for example, when looking at a horse's recent performances and at first look you discount him, but then something draws you back to him, something you noticed that looked a little out of place. Sometimes your brain clicks on it and you recognize a pattern you'd seen before maybe, sometimes your brain just won't let it go. It's hard to explain but I'm sure others here have experienced it, too. It's like a zone you get in where things are working other than your normal visual/mental methods.

So, you give up on it only to see the horse win at good odds. And you end up kicking yourself in the *** the rest of the day.

[classhandicapper]

“Many” peoples minds…You may be right, but I’ve been audited twice and trust me you want some sort of record keeping when it happens. I don’t care if it’s a shoe box of notes and betting slips, you need to think ahead. If your betting exotics at all its sound practice to keep detailed records going back 3 years.

Were you audited because of horse racing income or for other reasons and then the complexities of detailed gambling records became a issue.

Do you list yourself as professional gambler or do you have another occupation?

[DanG]

Were you audited because of horse racing income or for other reasons and then the complexities of detailed gambling records became a issue.

Do you list yourself as professional gambler or do you have another occupation?
I have no other income and honestly my first audit was really my own fault. I was doing my own returns and it was really a clerical error on my part that raised the flags. 2nd audit “I was told” was a random occurrence. I was told “unofficially” I crossed an unwritten threshold in profit that year and it set off some "random" smoke alarm.

Do not make the mistake (as I did) and attend the proceedings. Legal tax representation…period the end. I found the process to be degrading frankly and left there capable of multiple acts of road rage. :mad:

In theory; if you’re playing the game above the table, keep 3-years of decent records there is nothing to fear. In theory; or perhaps it’s my personal opinion that the entire IRS organization should be placed on E-bay and dismantled.

I was under the impression (perhaps imagined) that I was considered “guilty” of something before I entered the building. That perception was compounded by the reality that (we the horseplayer) who play into on shore pools already pay exorbitant taxes through exorbitant take outs.

BTW: If any good people of the IRS are reading this…I love you all like brothers and wish you nothing but the best over the holidays. :jump:

[classhandicapper]

I have no other income and honestly my first audit was really my own fault. I was doing my own returns and it was really a clerical error on my part that raised the flags. 2nd audit “I was told” was a random occurrence. I was told “unofficially” I crossed an unwritten threshold in profit that year and it set off some "random" smoke alarm.

Do not make the mistake (as I did) and attend the proceedings. Legal tax representation…period the end. I found the process to be degrading frankly and left there capable of multiple acts of road rage. :mad:

In theory; if you’re playing the game above the table, keep 3-years of decent records there is nothing to fear. In theory; or perhaps it’s my personal opinion that the entire IRS organization should be placed on E-bay and dismantled.

I was under the impression (perhaps imagined) that I was considered “guilty” of something before I entered the building. That perception was compounded by the reality that (we the horseplayer) who play into on shore pools already pay exorbitant taxes through exorbitant take outs.

BTW: If any good people of the IRS are reading this…I love you all like brothers and wish you nothing but the best over the holidays. :jump:

Hopefully, I'll never have to deal with that. I don't put enough money through the windows each year to raise any red flags for gambling results and almost never have an IRS ticket.

My primary sources of income is interest, capital gains, dividends, and options trades (though you'd never know it based on last week's results :eek: ) . I keep perfect records for that kind of stuff.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think my greatest strength is patience and self analysis in the heat of battle.

I feel no incentive or overwhelming urge to bet races just because they're happening.I just look at it as money NOT lost is profit also.Some take pride in having 20% hit ratios and still beating the game.I take pride in being selective,having better hit%,and beating the game.The two can mutually exist.

But sometimes I have to check myself in the course of a race day-"is this just a position play or do you really feel strong about this horse"-"are you just going through the motions"-"Are you just playing out the string on a racecard you haven't bet much early,on the last 2-3 races".

Betting itself is an easy habit to fall into.Postmortem analysis and philosophical implications and justifications are usually bullshit and denial.What happens between the lines,when the rush of a day's climax is hitting you,makes and breaks you no matter how structured.Harnessing that intensity,having a cool head,and a razor sharp ability to make fine line decisions is what I strive for every betting day.I might fall short of those expectations or play listless on any given day but I know those are the virtues and strengths I have when I'm on my game.

[raybo]

I think my greatest strength is patience and self analysis in the heat of battle.

I feel no incentive or overwhelming urge to bet races just because they're happening.I just look at it as money NOT lost is profit also.Some take pride in having 20% hit ratios and still beating the game.I take pride in being selective,having better hit%,and beating the game.The two can mutually exist.

But sometimes I have to check myself in the course of a race day-"is this just a position play or do you really feel strong about this horse"-"are you just going through the motions"-"Are you just playing out the string on a racecard you haven't bet much early,on the last 2-3 races".

Betting itself is an easy habit to fall into.Postmortem analysis and philosophical implications and justifications are usually bullshit and denial.What happens between the lines,when the rush of a day's climax is hitting you,makes and breaks you no matter how structured.Harnessing that intensity,having a cool head,and a razor sharp ability to make fine line decisions is what I strive for every betting day.I might fall short of those expectations or play listless on any given day but I know those are the virtues and strengths I have when I'm on my game.

I totally agree with your post. If a novice player asked me the most important aspect in handicapping, I would have to say, "There are 2, that go hand-in-hand, patience and selectivity.".

Patience, as a general rule, is inborn. Some connot apply that virtue consistently, especially those who easily get caught up in the "action". I doubt, also as a general rule, that patience can be taught or learned, in mature adults. Fortunately, I was born with it, and my handicapping partner has enough for 10 players. It is not uncommon for us to go days without placing a single wager (superfectas only, which requires one to have most of, if not all of, his/her "ducks in a row").

Selectivity, on the other hand, can be taught and learned by almost anyone who has the motivation to "do what it takes" to be successful. This does take time, however, as one must first determine those situations where they are successful most often. A thorough record of ones past performance and results is paramount in attaining quality selectivity. (One can be selective and still not be successful). After over 30 years of studying/adjusting my methods, I have a sound basis for my current methods.

Actually, selectivity comes first, then patience. Selectivity, in identifying the correct situations, must be followed by patience, in determining if a wager is warranted. Value, or at least potential value, must be there, otherwise, it's not a smart investment.

Now, I know there are those (very few) whose success requires less selectivity and less patience, namely those playing multiple tracks looking for small profits in individual races which means numerous small profits, adding up to substantial long term profit. These players are in a different category (Churners).