BET SIZING

[amazingD]

SO FARE i HAVE MOVED MY LITTLE BANKROLL FROM 200 TO 400 ON $10WP BETS. HOW MUCH WOULD YOU INCREASE YOUR BET SIZE TO. I THINK I WAS TOO HIGH IN THE BEGINNING. I PROBABLY HAVE AN ROI OF 115. WIN 35% AND PLACE NEAR 60%. 20 TO 40 PLAYS A DAY.

[atlasaxis]

What would your return have been if you invested 20 to win instead of 10 wp?

[pktruckdriver]

I heard about 7% is a good number to start with.


Then on the other side I heard 20-25% is the norm too.


It really depends on how much you wish to risk and also how quickly you wish to build up your bankroll.


Either way good luck

Patrick

[CincyHorseplayer]

What would your return have been if you invested 20 to win instead of 10 wp?

I have wrestled with this question too but I think with his numbers his approach is correct.

Say for instance his avg win is 4-1 or 10.00 and is 4.00 to place.

At $20 to win(20 bets) his return is $700.00 on $400.00 invested for a 75% ROI and $300.00 net.

At $10 W/P his return would be $590.00 on 400.00 invested for a 47.5% ROI at $190.00.

Yes he makes more money betting to win only.But losing streaks are part of the game.How many times on here in fact to you hear about 30 race losing streaks???It's almost touted.Yet posters are scolded for protecting their investment for reasons such as "they are separate bets.." etc etc.Protecting your bankroll.You have to have the survival instinct so you can have the luxury of evolving the killer instinct IMO.The luxury of the new day betting makes that possible.

Hypothetically let's say our bettor above loses every win bet but maintains his place proficiency.

At 60% hit rate he cuts his losses by 60%(4.00 to place x $10 x 12 on 20 bets=$240.00).

If you play this theory out it allows him to make 46 bets til he taps out.You have 20 bets til tapout betting to win only.

It's a philosophical question IMO=27.5% more ROI or cut losses by 60%.

Some,like me,don't have endless bankrolls.I have made the attempt to become a proffessional before with so so results.I have survived but without making a killing.But I live to see the new day.I think there is something to say for playing with life on the line.It fine tunes your instincts.Sure you don't bet the rent money but when you have to make withdraws from you bankroll for life needs,winning is imperative.I have played from both perspectives.I like the luxury of being a recreational bettor but I also like the challenge of playing for a living.It's an existential experience,it makes the hairs on your neck stand up and your body feel like a lightning rod!!!Not there yet but striving with every ounce of my being.

But I live to bet another day.I'd stay with your approach at 35/60%.

[stu]

Answer 1) If you are really certain that your estimate of your winning is 35%. Then use Kelly wagering or fractional Kelly wagering. The goal here is optimal wagering to maximize your bankroll.

http://www.racing.saratoga.ny.us/kelly.html

http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010302.htm

From your example 15% profit and average odds of 7:2.

15%/3.5 = 4.2% of your bankroll

$400 bankroll gives you $16 wagers

Answer 2) If you aren't absolutely certain about your percentage of winning and don't want to tap out. Calculate the probability of the number of consecutive losses that you can tolerate before tapping out. Based upon the Poisson distribution you can caluculate the probability of x number of consecutive loss. Then bet 1/xth of your bankroll which matches your risk tolerance. The goal here is optimal wagering for the preservation of capital and not growth.

Let's tolerate 1 million to one chance of tapping out due to losing streaks:

-(1/6) * log (1-P)

{use 1/3 if you want to take a 1000 to one chance instead)

-(1/6) * log (1 - 0.35) = 3.1% of your bankroll

$400 bankroll gives you $12 wagers



Obvious sidebar:

Both answers lead to economic ruin if your actual win percentage is less than your estimated win percentage. Method A will take you there faster.

[raybo]

I've heard a lot of very good players say that 3% of your bankroll (win bets only) is the proper level, allowing yourself 33 bets before exhausting your bankroll. I've never heard what it should be for WP bets. I, for one, have never gone 30 bets without hitting my winner, and I seldom wager on the favorite or any horse less than about 5/2.

This is taken in the context of superfecta races only, that's all I bet. So, if I were to include non-superfecta races also, I might have (or not) lost 30 in a row.

[amazingD]

At 10 to win and place I have had days that lost as much as $120 of my roll.. I think the conservative approach is the onlyone because time is unlimited inthe game. The rush to glory is a pitfall. By doubling my roll I have cut the risk of tap out way way down. When my 200 reaches 800 I can double the wagers and still have the same cushion..then double again at say 2400..this sounds like the best approach to insure safety.

[barn32]

SO FARE i HAVE MOVED MY LITTLE BANKROLL FROM 200 TO 400 ON $10WP BETS. HOW MUCH WOULD YOU INCREASE YOUR BET SIZE TO. I THINK I WAS TOO HIGH IN THE BEGINNING. I PROBABLY HAVE AN ROI OF 115. WIN 35% AND PLACE NEAR 60%. 20 TO 40 PLAYS A DAY.You're overbetting your bankroll as it is. I would keep it the same or LOWER it.

Risk of ruin is higher than you think.

[Imriledup]

You have an ROI of 115% with 20-40 plays a day? Isn't that a lot of plays per day?


An average racetrack has 10 races, so you're betting 2, 3, 4 or more tracks. Can you possibly be an expert on all those tracks? Why not focus on one track and know that track inside and out?

Also, betting a fixed amount on every race means you like every horse equally. Shouldn't you be betting MORE money on the horses you like best?

[Tom Barrister]

If you're hitting 35% of your plays and making 20-40 plays a day, then it's possible that you might have just been lucky so far. I know very few people who can find that many plays a day and make a profit, and I know of NOBODY who can hit 35% of their wagers with that volume of plays per day and make a profit. At that win percentage and volume, you're running into too many overbet (underlaid) chalk, in my opinion.

My personal rule of thumb is 1% or 2% of bankroll for win bets. Since you're betting to win and place, you might up that to 3%.

[amazingD]

For the first time ever I hope im not lucky. Im trying to do what one poster put on here and bet exactly to what my spots say to do and not change my bets. The only change i did make is horses that have a record like 10 0 6 3 I bet those $20 to place instead of win or I go to 10 place 10 show. Yet again they seem to win despite thier record. Ususally they are in so light that they are 1-2 and blow the field away. So far i have broken even and gotten all the rebate, thats most of my winnings. Initially I thought I was runnnig at an roi of 110 and thats about right with my rebate. Still it matters not my roi since time iis infinite. I should bet to $100 win and place bets in 2 months. Thats my limit for psychological winplace bets Id say. What is the effect of an extra $100 win place bet on a pool of say 10k in the win pool and 4k in the place pool. Assuming Im on an even money shot. Anyone have that calc. I was 50% yesterday so I think my 35% is close. I have alot of 6 and 10 dollar h orses so its an avg.

[DeanT]

If I had a $400 bankroll I would bet to win no more than $30 each bet. The bankroll can grow and readjust, but it keeps a bankroll alive should things turn bad.

JMO and good luck.

[amazingD]

Bank roll had a great day and im up to 700... Tomorrow I think its save to goto 15 wp bets. Once again I tried to outhandicap the computer and lost a 12$ place horse. I do best when i just bet them and forget them . But as I was red hot yesterday I was looking to lose today. I started trying to weed out the ones that I thought were probable losers. Thats probably classic thoughts that run thru many handicappers heads that are doing spot plays and straight bets. usually I have alosing day after a winning one so I was trying to time the market so to speak. Like the guys thread said. It gets pretty exciting when you see your bankroll grow and grow and the bets go from tiny to incrementally larger.

[barn32]

But as I was red hot yesterday I was looking to lose today. This is a very telling statement.

[amazingD]

This is a very telling statement.

Experience tells me that when i have a huge day its almost always followed with the reverse. I actually hit for a grand on another bet outside my plays. On the maiden route angle. I am adding it to this pot and moving to 20 wp now.Which would be 5% of bankroll bet on each race, split win and place. Since my horses are winning at such a high clip I think im safe. Plus the place is really high hit percentage. Placed 12 of 14 today.