funkydj
10-05-2008, 07:46 AM
Joe Kelley
www.winatthehorses.com (http://www.winatthehorses.com)
Saturday at Belmont was profitable for us. We hit the $ 30.60 exacta in the 4th race and the Frizette winner SKYE DIVA $ 13.20 , and the capper was a healthy $ 23.40 winner in the 10th race. Hope you were onboard for some of those plays. Sunday's feature is the Jerome Handicap.
RACE 1: When a horse returns from a 90 day plus layoff, we look for a trainer who is proficient with this move and/or the horse has succeeded before with such a move. # 7 CHASING THE CROWN won on the Belmont lawn before after a nine month layoff. Trainer Charlton Baker is average with his move but he is sharp with putting his charges first into claimers. Will need a form reversal but the last two races may have been not suitable. The mile and a quarter was too long and the 7 F sprint was just not his day.
PLAY: Win bet on # 7 at 9/2 and up.
*****
RACE 2: Not the toughest crew to face here. # 7 TITLETOWN TIGER ships down from Suffolk and his trainer George Saccardo shows all positive numbers with first time starters and MSW. Like the Sept. 24th gate work. Storm Cat as a grand sire means could win at first asking.
PLAY: Win bet on # 7 at odds of 4/1 or better.
***
RACE 3: # 4 SHOT GUN HOLIDAY takes the blinkers off for this race. Usually we like a horse that shows some early prowess but the fact that James Jerkens gets them primed off longer layoffs and that Shot Gun Holiday won his debut, we need to keep this horse in mind. # 5 PHOBIA is the speed here and Gary Contessa wins at 22% dropping one class.
PLAY: Win bets on # 4 and # 5 at odds of 4/1 and higher.
****
RACE 5: Two year old maidens trying to win on the grass. The average $ 2 payout for a win at this condition is $ 15.00 so we are looking for a price here. # 1 MISS WORLD ran on the dirt first out after the turf race was changed. Showed early speed and didn't embarass herself. But this one is bred for success on the grass with Bernstein sire. Clement is king on grass. # 3 CHAPOSA SMOKE tanked it in her dirt debut. That's cool for us as the unknowing public may let this one sneak to higher odds. Tagg wins at 21% going from dirt to turf and he and Eibar Coa have done some great things together. # 9 PARI tries to win on the weeds for the second time. Thomas Proctor nabs them at 22% second on the grass. Eddie Castro can put them on the lead and win going away.
PLAY: Win bets on # 1, # 3, and # 9 at 5/1 and higher.
*****
RACE 6: Lack of quality early speed here leads us to two horses. # 5 JJ'S PROPHET has taken a liking to the dirt after an inauspicious career on the turf. Linda Rice and Alan Garcia are as good as it gets. # 8 BEDFORD ARCH gets a fast dirt track for the first time and Contessa wins 18% going turf to dirt.
PLAY: Win bets on # 5 and # 8 at odds of 3/1 and higher. Box the # 5 and # 8 and enjoy the ride.
******
RACE 9: So many question marks in this race. A few are finished and still running and some may be on the rise. One such horse on the rise is # 3 YOU AND I FOREVER who goes for Billy Mott. The Pennsylvania Derby is a throwout as the post position did him in. Has nice tactical speed and has been training well since.
PLAY: Win bet on # 3 at 4/1 and higher.
www.winatthehorses.com (http://www.winatthehorses.com)
Saturday at Belmont was profitable for us. We hit the $ 30.60 exacta in the 4th race and the Frizette winner SKYE DIVA $ 13.20 , and the capper was a healthy $ 23.40 winner in the 10th race. Hope you were onboard for some of those plays. Sunday's feature is the Jerome Handicap.
RACE 1: When a horse returns from a 90 day plus layoff, we look for a trainer who is proficient with this move and/or the horse has succeeded before with such a move. # 7 CHASING THE CROWN won on the Belmont lawn before after a nine month layoff. Trainer Charlton Baker is average with his move but he is sharp with putting his charges first into claimers. Will need a form reversal but the last two races may have been not suitable. The mile and a quarter was too long and the 7 F sprint was just not his day.
PLAY: Win bet on # 7 at 9/2 and up.
*****
RACE 2: Not the toughest crew to face here. # 7 TITLETOWN TIGER ships down from Suffolk and his trainer George Saccardo shows all positive numbers with first time starters and MSW. Like the Sept. 24th gate work. Storm Cat as a grand sire means could win at first asking.
PLAY: Win bet on # 7 at odds of 4/1 or better.
***
RACE 3: # 4 SHOT GUN HOLIDAY takes the blinkers off for this race. Usually we like a horse that shows some early prowess but the fact that James Jerkens gets them primed off longer layoffs and that Shot Gun Holiday won his debut, we need to keep this horse in mind. # 5 PHOBIA is the speed here and Gary Contessa wins at 22% dropping one class.
PLAY: Win bets on # 4 and # 5 at odds of 4/1 and higher.
****
RACE 5: Two year old maidens trying to win on the grass. The average $ 2 payout for a win at this condition is $ 15.00 so we are looking for a price here. # 1 MISS WORLD ran on the dirt first out after the turf race was changed. Showed early speed and didn't embarass herself. But this one is bred for success on the grass with Bernstein sire. Clement is king on grass. # 3 CHAPOSA SMOKE tanked it in her dirt debut. That's cool for us as the unknowing public may let this one sneak to higher odds. Tagg wins at 21% going from dirt to turf and he and Eibar Coa have done some great things together. # 9 PARI tries to win on the weeds for the second time. Thomas Proctor nabs them at 22% second on the grass. Eddie Castro can put them on the lead and win going away.
PLAY: Win bets on # 1, # 3, and # 9 at 5/1 and higher.
*****
RACE 6: Lack of quality early speed here leads us to two horses. # 5 JJ'S PROPHET has taken a liking to the dirt after an inauspicious career on the turf. Linda Rice and Alan Garcia are as good as it gets. # 8 BEDFORD ARCH gets a fast dirt track for the first time and Contessa wins 18% going turf to dirt.
PLAY: Win bets on # 5 and # 8 at odds of 3/1 and higher. Box the # 5 and # 8 and enjoy the ride.
******
RACE 9: So many question marks in this race. A few are finished and still running and some may be on the rise. One such horse on the rise is # 3 YOU AND I FOREVER who goes for Billy Mott. The Pennsylvania Derby is a throwout as the post position did him in. Has nice tactical speed and has been training well since.
PLAY: Win bet on # 3 at 4/1 and higher.