Q: Same horses/multiple races in a row

[Gallop58]

Any data out there about a series of races that came up with exactly or pretty much the same entries. Perhaps at tracks where there's a smaller horse population? Just curious as it seems like it must come up sometime and it would be interesting to see how the races went. My thought is that it would be the closest you might come to running the same race again and again and again, ie. remove the variable of a mixture of horses.
Apologies if this has been discussed, but I couldn't find it in the archives.

[Jeff P]

I've never studied exact field matchups from a database perspective. But I do vividly remember one particular Mdn Claiming race from an afternoon card at TUP in the spring of 1988.

I had zeroed in on a horse that I thought had both a fitness edge as well as a speed & pace edge over his field. I made a sizeable win bet (at least for me back then) at odds of about 9/2. The gate opened and my selection sped right to the front and easily wired his field. As he was galloping out after the race the stewards put up the inquiry sign. It turned out that the starting gate had malfunctioned and two of the stalls had failed to open. Instead of scratching the two horses affected, they declared "no race" and refunded all wagers. Fair I guess in retrospect but I was livid at the time.

I wrote down the "winner's" name in a spiral notebook that I was using for trip notes at the time. I wanted to be sure to catch him next time out.

Sure enough about two weeks later he's in another Mdn Claimer. Same claiming price. Same weight carried. Same surface and distance. And facing almost the exact same field he beat last time.

Instead of 9/2 he goes off at 4/5. I bet anyway, figuring the way he toyed with 'em last time he was pretty much a lock today.

Gate opens. Another horse, "officially" listed as a first time starter (I remember him finishing 4th or 5th in the non race) is sent straight to the front and wires the field.

It was at that point in my "career" that I decided no two races are exactly alike... even when they contain exactly the same fields on paper.

Up until that point I believed certain horses were "locks." After that race I began evolving as a player, always working towards making better and better probability assessments... but knowing full well no horse ever steps into a starting gate with a win probability of 1.


-jp

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