Slow Day?

[BIG RED]

Been over 7 cards today, and nothing looks interesting. Turfway looks the most boring, so I will go for Pick 3's there! (there must be a psycho name for that :confused: ) $27 a race....

1 1-5-10
2 11-7-6
3 8-4-7
4 8-7-1
5 3-7-9
6 7-10-8
7 9-10-5
8 3-10-6
9 5-8-3
0 10-5-14

...will put them in early,
a couple @ Belmont too....

2 2-8-7
3 3-5-4
4 11-2-6
5 1a-3x-9-1
6 9-4-1
7 5-9-6

[jjtuttle131]

Here's a wonderful excerpt from "Win Every Race"......I bet you don't read the form like this??? And, I'm willing to bet that you've never heard of this before?


"....It is called “Progression" and “Regression" rates and it works like this.


[Progression]

The most-commonly run distance race in North America is the six-furlong sprint race. A six-furlong sprint consists of 6/8ths or 3/4ths of a mile. This means, that the final 1/8 of a six-furlong race (otherwise known as the “Stretch Call”) is 17% of the race. At seven-furlongs it would equate to approximately 14%, and at a flat mile it would equal 12.5%.

If a horse were to improve their position within that final eighth by 2 lengths (in a one-mile race), that would equal a progression rate of 25% (12.5x2=25). Now, imagine that you were looking over a horse’s PP’s, and you saw a consistent pattern emerge of this horse always “progressing”. Wouldn’t you feel a bit more confident in betting on such a horse? The answer to that question is a resounding “YES”!

Although this is book dedicated to harness racing, I feel compelled to show the following example from a thoroughbred facility.

On Friday May 30th 2008, I recently wagered on a horse in the 3rd @ Hollywood Park (by the name of True Suggestion), who won like breaking sticks and paid a very generous 11-1. In this particular race only two horses had positive progression rates. The #2 horse True Suggestion and the #1 horse: Vegas Runner.

True Suggestion had a score of (+79) and Vegas Runner was a (+42). Below is how I derived True Suggestion’s number.


True Suggestion’s pattern of “Progression or “Regression” read as follows: +55, +33, -21, +18, and +18. Then, I simply added all of those numbers together (which went on to equal +103). I then proceeded to add the 103+55 (the 55 being this horse’s last outing), which equaled +158 and divided it by two, which gave me the derived number of (+79). The real beauty behind this numbers system is in the fact that all of the percentages are constant. And, irrespective of whether a horse has recently raced over the turf course instead of the dirt, it has absolutely no barring over these derived rates.


[Regression]

Naturally, if a horse is showing a consistent pattern of “Regression”, then one can make the assumption; that something may be wrong with that particular horse. In my use of this system, I have rarely come across a race in which every horse has a final number in the negative."


p.s. There's a lot more to this particular concept, but, I think you'll "get it".



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

[John Eh]

Hmmm... very interesting...have to look into that ... thx Mr Tuttle

John Eh :)

[jjtuttle131]

You're very welcome, and if you ever have any horsemanship related q's; I'll be more than happy to try and give you some answers.



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle