Pace appraiser PP's

[MartyZee]

Although they're relatively new-has anyone used the new pp's from pace appraiser, and if so-do they like them?

[barn32]

Although they're relatively new-has anyone used the new pp's from pace appraiser, and if so-do they like them?They make absolutely no sense to me. Any PPs that don't have fractional times are completely worthless in my opinion. How can you call them PPs?

I mean, even if fractional times are not part of the "program" they should at least be included for those who do like to look at them.

Plus in order to use them you have to read the guy's book. I pass.

[cj]

Sometimes it is better to get away from looking at what everyone else is seeing. I'm not familiar with these new PPs, but I never, ever look at raw fractional or final times when handicapping.

[Speed Figure]

Give me figures over times any day. Before I started to make my own figures, I always would throw out horses from Calder. I would look at there pp's and see 23.3 47.2 112.4 and think that the horse was to slow. And I would over bet horses from Turf Paradise because there line would be 21.3 44.1 108.4. Once I started making my own pace & speed numbers, times in the pp's were not very important.

[barn32]

Sometimes it is better to get away from looking at what everyone else is seeing. I'm not familiar with these new PPs, but I never, ever look at raw fractional or final times when handicapping.I never ever look at speed figures.

[scgmhawk]

I actually just read the book and did sign up for the PP service. I'll first say that while I've been around racing my entire adult life, I haven't really been into playing regularly until this year. I'm used to using BRIS Ultimate PPs or the DRF, so that's where I'm coming from. I haven't been a software guy and I don't have a database.

Pace Appraiser, while not groundbreaking, allows me to easily see a race from a new "pace" perspective. The PPs do take getting used to (and I'm not used to them yet). There is information that you are used to seeing that is not there (i.e. fractional times). But, there are pace related figures that are unique to this product. Part of my thinking is that if you have figures that everyone else doesn't have (and can interpret them properly) you might have an edge, which is what we are all looking for.

It's a relatively easy to understand methodology and reasonably priced. I haven't decided yet whether I'll stick with the PP subscription long term or not, but am having fun learning with them right now.

[socantra]

Plus in order to use them you have to read the guy's book. I pass.

No, you don't have to read the guy's book, though it is not a bad book and well worth the read.

He includes the equivalent of 9 pages worth of FAQ and about 30 pages worth of articles on his website, which make it pretty clear how use his PPs. He is also very good at responding to questions, should you have any.

Alas, you were partially right. You do have to be able to read.

[Tom Barrister]

The book isn't absolutely necessary, as there is an extensive FAQ system on use of the program, but if you're going to use PaceAppraiser, you should also fork over the $20 for the book.

Since PaceAppraiser uses BRIS/TSN data files, anybody who has the data files can get the regular past performances for those files. Both TSN data file types are bundled into "unlimited" $60/month plans which also allow free PDF past performances of one kind or another. Those who don't subscribe to a monthly TSN plan or who use BRIS data files can download software that converts the data files into Past Perfomances.

[jjtuttle131]

Sometimes it is better to get away from looking at what everyone else is seeing. I'm not familiar with these new PPs, but I never, ever look at raw fractional or final times when handicapping.


"Sometimes it is better to get away from looking at what everyone else is seeing."....I couldn't have worded that any better myself. There's a painfully obvious reason as to "why" the most logical horse to win, ALWAYS seems to be "bet down" to favoritism. EVERYONE (or at least 95% of you are sheep), and if EVERYONE is basically reading the form the SAME WAY; that is completely counter-productive. Especially, when favs only win 34% of the time (nationally), and 2nd choice horses, only 18%!

Here's a wonderful excerpt from "Win Every Race"......I bet you don't read the form like this??? And, I'm willing to bet that you've never heard of this before?


"....It is called “Progression" and “Regression" rates and it works like this.


[Progression]

The most-commonly run distance race in North America is the six-furlong sprint race. A six-furlong sprint consists of 6/8ths or 3/4ths of a mile. This means, that the final 1/8 of a six-furlong race (otherwise known as the “Stretch Call”) is 17% of the race. At seven-furlongs it would equate to approximately 14%, and at a flat mile it would equal 12.5%.

If a horse were to improve their position within that final eighth by 2 lengths (in a one-mile race), that would equal a progression rate of 25% (12.5x2=25). Now, imagine that you were looking over a horse’s PP’s, and you saw a consistent pattern emerge of this horse always “progressing”. Wouldn’t you feel a bit more confident in betting on such a horse? The answer to that question is a resounding “YES”!

Although this is book dedicated to harness racing, I feel compelled to show the following example from a thoroughbred facility.

On Friday May 30th 2008, I recently wagered on a horse in the 3rd @ Hollywood Park (by the name of True Suggestion), who won like breaking sticks and paid a very generous 11-1. In this particular race only two horses had positive progression rates. The #2 horse True Suggestion and the #1 horse: Vegas Runner.

True Suggestion had a score of (+79) and Vegas Runner was a (+42). Below is how I derived True Suggestion’s number.


True Suggestion’s pattern of “Progression or “Regression” read as follows: +55, +33, -21, +18, and +18. Then, I simply added all of those numbers together (which went on to equal +103). I then proceeded to add the 103+55 (the 55 being this horse’s last outing), which equaled +158 and divided it by two, which gave me the derived number of (+79). The real beauty behind this numbers system is in the fact that all of the percentages are constant. And, irrespective of whether a horse has recently raced over the turf course instead of the dirt, it has absolutely no barring over these derived rates.


[Regression]

Naturally, if a horse is showing a consistent pattern of “Regression”, then one can make the assumption; that something may be wrong with that particular horse. In my use of this system, I have rarely come across a race in which every horse has a final number in the negative."


p.s. There's a lot more to this particular concept, but, I think you'll "get it".



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

[Tom Barrister]

Here's a wonderful excerpt from "Win Every Race"

You forgot the address.

[jjtuttle131]

My books sell all over....but, mainly on Amazon.com

[Tom Barrister]

For some reason, I knew that was coming.

[jjtuttle131]

It is a real part of my Aquarian nature.

[Tom Barrister]

Ok, let me spell it out for you:

I've been to four or five threads (and these are just the ones I've found) where you're introducing your various books into the thread, through quotes thereof.

The rule that PA made long ago is that advertisers pay for the privilege of advertising their products and/or services. The Boss has often said that discussion about books/systems/software/services is fine and dandy. But when the author/creator of such a product introduces it into the thread (when it didn't exist in the thread before), and does this many times in many different threads, that's advertising, or at least it appears that way to me. Others may have different views.

[Fingal]

Although they're relatively new-has anyone used the new pp's from pace appraiser, and if so-do they like them?

The concept sounds interesting, but it would be nice to see a sample of some past races on the website to see what they look like before signing up.

[Tom Barrister]

The concept sounds interesting, but it would be nice to see a sample of some past races on the website to see what they look like before signing up.

You can see a sample here:

http://www.paceappraiser.com/products/past_performances.php

[jjtuttle131]

Feel free to send me a "personal email" and I'll give you my # and we'll discuss things in much better/greater detail.


jjtuttle131 @ ya hoo dot com is my primary email address.


p.s. Just being honest here.....that theorem actually works a lot better with the thoroughbreds, in my opinion.


Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

[Fingal]

You can see a sample here:

http://www.paceappraiser.com/products/past_performances.php

Thanks.:ThmbUp: