.......Confidence Level Pick Thread.......

[cmoore]

This pick thread is going to be a little different. Each time you post a pick, it must contain the following..

1)..Post must be at least 5 minutes before the actual post time
2)..A reason why you like that horse
3)..A confidence level between one through ten should be typed in front of the track. 95% of all picks I would think would be between 5 and 10..A confidence of 5 could be an angle your following. We've all had those days where a horse just jumps out of the pps and says bet me...Those type would be a ten..

This is for handicappers that do thier homework ahead of time and would like to share a few picks here and there. Over time, I think this thread will be helpfull to each of us. It will show how you did at certain confidence levels. If your Confiedence Levels at 5-6 aren't hitting. Then you should hold off until you get a seven.

[cmoore]

(C.L. 7)...Finger Lakes Race 5)..:3: Cash For Gold..win..Very fast in last up to the 6f mark. A race shape of + 20 and +17. Led in that race at the stretch going 1 mile 70 yds.. Shortens up to 5.5 furlongs today.

(C.L. 7)..Delaware race 6)..:2: Fifty Frame..win..Three or four runners should battle for lead. Pace likely fast and that sets it up for the 2. He ran an 81 late pace and won going away in last. Third start with new trainer and it seems that he's got him in good form.

(C.L. 8)..Finger lakes race 6)..:5: Almost A Fools Day..win..Good and Tough runners are 8 of 26 last 3 years as a 2yo first timer. All works are 6-7 days apart except one that's 20 days. His last work looks to be intentionally slow. Trainer is 2 of 6 1st time starter.

(C.L. 7)..Fort Erie race 7)..:1::2::3::5: ex box....Inside speed should dominate this 5 furlong race..2 and 5 are both E style runners. The 1 and 3 sires I don't have much info on. But the grandsires Storm Cat and A.P. Jet tell me they could easily show good early speed. The 1 also has a bullet work on Sept 21st.

[John Eh]

(C.L. 8)...Mountaineer Race 7).. :5: Standar..Win $10 .. Jockey Win% , Trainer Win%, Dropping 2 classes, Avg Speed Rating top 3


John Eh :)

[sally]

(C.L. 5 ) Mountaineer R7 I think the confidence level of that 40% trainer has dropped on his recent claim, :5: Standar. I totally see why you're picking him, tho-- but I think I'll go with the longshot, :4: Trade Signal.... on the "clunker theory"-- that last race he just didn't feel like running--(although I know it was at a higher class) still, he'll feel more like himself today and could surprise...:)

[cmoore]

(C.L. 7)...Finger Lakes Race 5)..:3: Cash For Gold..win..Very fast in last up to the 6f mark. A race shape of + 20 and +17. Led in that race at the stretch going 1 mile 70 yds.. Shortens up to 5.5 furlongs today.

(C.L. 7)..Delaware race 6)..:2: Fifty Frame..win..Three or four runners should battle for lead. Pace likely fast and that sets it up for the 2. He ran an 81 late pace and won going away in last. Third start with new trainer and it seems that he's got him in good form.

(C.L. 8)..Finger lakes race 6)..:5: Almost A Fools Day..win..Good and Tough runners are 8 of 26 last 3 years as a 2yo first timer. All works are 6-7 days apart except one that's 20 days. His last work looks to be intentionally slow. Trainer is 2 of 6 1st time starter.

(C.L. 7)..Fort Erie race 7)..:1::2::3::5: ex box....Inside speed should dominate this 5 furlong race..2 and 5 are both E style runners. The 1 and 3 sires I don't have much info on. But the grandsires Storm Cat and A.P. Jet tell me they could easily show good early speed. The 1 also has a bullet work on Sept 21st.

(C.L. 7)Finger Lakes Race 5)..:3: Cash For Gold..Gives up a big lead to lose by 3/4 lengths.......2nd

(C.L. 7)..Delaware race 6)..:2: Fifty Frame...Didn't even run.....out

(C.L. 8)..Finger lakes race 6)..:5: Almost A Fools Day...Got out fast to get lead..Weakened late....3rd

(C.L. 7)..Fort Erie race 7)..:1::2::3::5: ex box.......Exacta gets beat at the wire as the 4 closes and splits it..A 2-1 exacta would of only got our money back anyways..

C.L. 7....0 for 3
C.L. 8....0 for 1

[juanepstein]

finger lakes 8th- $2 double- :1::3::5::6:<:5::6:

confidence level- like me doing your mother- PRETTY GOOD CHANCES!

[juanepstein]

who does the fkn morningline at finger lakes?

its completely different then the public.

whats the best mud sire in the 9th fingers cmoore?

[cmoore]

finger lakes 8th- $2 double- :1::3::5::6:<:5::6:

confidence level- like me doing your mother- PRETTY GOOD CHANCES!

Why do have to break all the rules Pete???

5 minutes before race- It was not
No reason given
No confidence level given..

We'll still mostly post picks in that other pick thread. But this one will take off much slower. I'm trying to make an improvement over a normal pick thread..Work with me now..

[juanepstein]

LMAO....
Ok...you had your fun..
Enough of the B.S..

lol!

[juanepstein]

(cl 8) fort erie 10th- :5: letitallgo

it says 1 minute but they have to fix the track so there will be more time.

[juanepstein]

(cl 8) fort erie 10th- :5: letitallgo

it says 1 minute but they have to fix the track so there will be more time.

cancelled due to track problems.

[juanepstein]

mountaineer - jockey 1 or 2 rides angle- (cl 5,7)

1st- :4: seaboard........c.c.(2)...6/1
.......:9: secret angent sybil...tho(2)...6/1

2nd- :1: justin d....j. sanchez(2)...5/1
.......:4: fast bourne.....speith(1)...6/1

3rd-:4: mr right now....j. sanchez(2)...10/1
.......:6: malabar bay......vickers(1)...8/1
......:7: el gallo de oro.....tho(2)...8/1

4th- :4: texplosive hall.....joe stokes(1)...5/1
......:9: stogie joe......c.c.(2)...12/1

5th- :8: sweet salvation.....oswald pereira(2)...30/1

6th- :2: honest bella....oswald pereira(2)...4/1
........:5: spring catch....a. sanguinetti(2)...7/2

7th- :7: quick kisser....a. sanguinetti(2)...8/1

8th- :1: jermidy....r. allen jr(2)...7/2
.......:3: pyrite marci....luis gonzalez(1)...5/1
.......:5: undenialably silver...luis quinonez(2)...6/1
.......:7: foronceinmylifetime...ernesto oro(1)...8/1

bunch of jocks coming in for that purse.

9th- :4: johnny hollywood...r. allen jr.(2)...2/1
.......:9: thatsalottabull...luis quinonez(2)...7/2

() total jockeys rides for the night.

[juanepstein]

mountaineer - jockey 1 or 2 rides angle- (cl 5,7)

1st- :4: seaboard........c.c.(2)...6/1
.......:9: secret angent sybil...tho(2)...6/1

2nd- :1: justin d....j. sanchez(2)...5/1
.......:4: fast bourne.....speith(1)...6/1

3rd-:4: mr right now....j. sanchez(2)...10/1
.......:6: malabar bay......vickers(1)...8/1
......:7: el gallo de oro.....tho(2)...8/1

4th- :4: texplosive hall.....joe stokes(1)...5/1
......:9: stogie joe......c.c.(2)...12/1

5th- :8: sweet salvation.....oswald pereira(2)...30/1

6th- :2: honest bella....oswald pereira(2)...4/1
........:5: spring catch....a. sanguinetti(2)...7/2

7th- :7: quick kisser....a. sanguinetti(2)...8/1

8th- :1: jermidy....r. allen jr(2)...7/2
.......:3: pyrite marci....luis gonzalez(1)...5/1
.......:5: undenialably silver...luis quinonez(2)...6/1
.......:7: foronceinmylifetime...ernesto oro(1)...8/1

bunch of jocks coming in for that purse.

9th- :4: johnny hollywood...r. allen jr.(2)...2/1
.......:9: thatsalottabull...luis quinonez(2)...7/2

() total jockeys rides for the night.


1st- #4 seaboard- 1st- $13.00 $5.80 $3.00
.......#9 secret angent sybil...tho(2)...6/1

2nd- #1 justin d- out
.......#4 fast bourne- out..scott spieth did not show up for ride.

3rd-#4 mr right now- out
.......#6 malabar bay- 1st- $26.40 $5.60 $3.40
......#7 el gallo de oro- out

4th- #4 texplosive hall- out
......#9 stogie joe- out

5th- #8 sweet salvation- out

6th- #2 honest bella- 2nd- $5.60 $3.60
........#5 spring catch- 1st- $9.20 $5.40 $3.40

7th- #7 quick kisser- out

8th- #1 jermidy- out
.......#3 pyrite marci- 4th
.......#5 undenialably silver- 2nd- $11.20 $8.60
.......#7 foronceinmylifetime- 3rd- $10.40

bunch of jocks coming in for that purse.

9th- #4 johnny hollywood- 2nd- $3.80 $3.20
.......#9 thatsalottabull- 1st- $6.80 $3.40 $3.20

[juanepstein]

(cl 8) bendigo 4th- :3: pit lane- luke nolan in for one ride for pg moody. early market mover in australian pools.

(cl 8) bendigo 5th- :8: togni- zahra riding for snowden/sheikh mohammed connection. out of giants causeway. surface is good and starts from the :8: post going 1400 yrds.:ThmbUp:

[juanepstein]

(cl 8) bendigo 4th- :3: pit lane- luke nolan in for one ride for pg moody. early market mover in australian pools.

(cl 8) bendigo 5th- :8: togni- zahra riding for snowden/sheikh mohammed connection. out of giants causeway. surface is good and starts from the :8: post going 1400 yrds.:ThmbUp:

:3: pit lane- out

:8: togni- 2nd- $4.90 $2.40

[juanepstein]

(cl 9)
Horse name One in a Romp Notes TOE ANGLE- look for a mile turf/1 1/16 for good odds Activity type Entry Activity date 10-01-2008 Track Belmont Park Surface Dirt Distance 1 Mile Race number 4 Purse $52,000 Claim price $25,000 Individual claim price Not Entered for Tag Race type Allowance Optional Claiming Post position 8 Jockey Velasquez C H

(cl 7)..EVERYONE NEEDS A LIL MULE ACION IN THEIR LIFE!
Horse name RTR ThreeOFive Notes mule veered badly to the left out of gate/turned it on across the track to get 3rd. Activity type Entry Activity date 10-01-2008 Track Fresno Surface Dirt Distance 350 Yards Race number 1 Purse $4,000 Race type Maiden Post position 3 Jockey Maldonado O J

(cl 6)
Trainer name Ryan Derek S Notes
Horse name Rockon Rockoff Activity type Entry Activity date 10-01-2008 Track Meadowlands Surface Turf Distance 1 Mile 70 Yards Race number 2 Purse $24,000 Claim price $25,000 Individual claim price $25,000 Race type Claiming Post position 8 Jockey Marquez C H Jr

[juanepstein]

(cl 8) belmont 7th- :9: casanova move-really not hating last race but showing improvement every race. LANGFUHR baby on the off turf- she should relish it.coa/jerkins:ThmbUp:

[juanepstein]

(cl 9)
Horse name One in a Romp Notes TOE ANGLE- look for a mile turf/1 1/16 for good odds Activity type Entry Activity date 10-01-2008 Track Belmont Park Surface Dirt Distance 1 Mile Race number 4 Purse $52,000 Claim price $25,000 Individual claim price Not Entered for Tag Race type Allowance Optional Claiming Post position 8 Jockey Velasquez C H

(cl 7)..EVERYONE NEEDS A LIL MULE ACION IN THEIR LIFE!
Horse name RTR ThreeOFive Notes mule veered badly to the left out of gate/turned it on across the track to get 3rd. Activity type Entry Activity date 10-01-2008 Track Fresno Surface Dirt Distance 350 Yards Race number 1 Purse $4,000 Race type Maiden Post position 3 Jockey Maldonado O J

(cl 6)
Trainer name Ryan Derek S Notes
Horse name Rockon Rockoff Activity type Entry Activity date 10-01-2008 Track Meadowlands Surface Turf Distance 1 Mile 70 Yards Race number 2 Purse $24,000 Claim price $25,000 Individual claim price $25,000 Race type Claiming Post position 8 Jockey Marquez C H Jr

one in a romp- out

rtr threeofive- 1st- $14.20 $4.00 $3.00

rockon rockoff- scratched

[juanepstein]

(cl 6/7) wyong 1st

:6: long bro....market mover to 2/1 right now down under.16/1 morningline up here in the states.

:8: belong to loire....same trainer as the :6:. this one is about the same odds down under right now.

trainer PORTELLI has been rolling hot! she enters two BELONG TO ME babies for graduation. nothing wrong with the posts either.:ThmbUp:

definitley gonna need some sweet prices on these.

[juanepstein]

(cl 8)
Horse name O Firefly Notes claimed by sadler/nice looking horse/was 9/1 for mullins Activity type Entry Activity date 10-02-2008 Track Oak Tree at Santa Anita Surface All Weather Track Distance 6 Furlongs Race number 8 Purse $21,000 Claim price $40,000 Individual claim price $40,000 Race type Maiden Claiming Post position 13 Jockey Gomez G K

(cl 7)
Horse name Friendly Mystery Notes NICE LOOKING HORSE/WASNT TAKING FAIRPLEX TURNS Activity type Entry Activity date 10-02-2008 Track Oak Tree at Santa Anita Surface All Weather Track Distance 6 Furlongs Race number 5 Purse $24,000 Claim price $40,000 Individual claim price Not Entered for Tag Race type Starter Allowance Post position 12 Jockey Potts C L

[cmoore]

(C.L. 9) Belmont race 5)..:4: Always Willing..wp..Elusive Quality first timers on the turf win at a very high rate. Zizal, the broodmare sire also does well 1st time out..The trainer does show a poor debut turf percentage. But I would bet that this is his first Elusive Quality runner. So throw that little stat out. Workout tab is good. M.L. is 10-1..I think we could even get higher then that. The last Elusive Quality 1st timer I hit was 32-1.

[juanepstein]

(C.L. 9) Belmont race 5)..:4: Always Willing..wp..Elusive Quality first timers on the turf win at a very high rate. Zizal, the broodmare sire also does well 1st time out..The trainer does show a poor debut turf percentage. But I would bet that this is his first Elusive Quality runner. So throw that little stat out. Workout tab is good. M.L. is 10-1..I think we could even get higher then that. The last Elusive Quality 1st timer I hit was 32-1.

no run on turf.

[cmoore]

(C.L. 9) Belmont race 5)..:4: Always Willing..wp..Elusive Quality first timers on the turf win at a very high rate. Zizal, the broodmare sire also does well 1st time out..The trainer does show a poor debut turf percentage. But I would bet that this is his first Elusive Quality runner. So throw that little stat out. Workout tab is good. M.L. is 10-1..I think we could even get higher then that. The last Elusive Quality 1st timer I hit was 32-1.

It's Off the turf...C.L. has dropped to a 7....

I'm still betting. Just not as much..