The Claiming Game

[MANOWAR]

When a horse gets claimed from its last race, besides a low win % jockey to a high win % jockey, what other signs will the new trainer give that he's going to crack down in the horse's next race?

[Kentucky Bred]

ManOWar:

First, when I see the just-claimed horse run back fast, especially after a substandard performance, something is up. Remember that most trainer condition books come out (or at least they used to) every two weeks or so. So, that trainer that is claiming the horse may see that race as part of an overall strategy to get back some money on the claim, in a hurry.

In most places in the country (if not all), a trainer will be forced to race the horse at a higher level if they race back within 30 days from the claim. But, from that you can get a little price on the horse, because they do win on the rise.

Second, I love to see a real change in distances or surfaces or anything major. A recently claimed sprinter who is stalling at his levels who gets wheeled back quick, on the rise, and enters a mile or mile-sixteenth race. Trainers watch their horses each morning and they also watch the other trainer's horses as well. They see talent in the morning and believe they have a radically different way to release it in the afternoon.

When they are right you get paid.

Kentucky Bred

[MANOWAR]

I talked about a new trainer changing jockeys, from a low win % jockey to a high win % jockey. This may make a big difference, but I've seen horses win right back after being claimed that were ridden by a different low win % jockey. It sounds like the trainer is using a jockey he regularly uses to get higher odds on his horse. Does this make sense? Is there more to it then that?

Also, If the new trainer runs the horse right back, say within 14 days, that doesn't necessarily mean the horse is going to win. Especially if the horse is placed over its head. Does 20% higher make sense? Meaning If the new trainer bumps his horse up the claiming ladder 20% within 14 days, it may have a better shot at winning the race. Right?

[Early]

Hi ManOWar, this is my first post on this site. I registered because I'm picking horses for the About team in the new contest, but can't post there because I'm not officially a team member, I guess. I'm doing Gulfstream.

Far and away, you have to consider the trainer stats. Some trainers hit right away off the claim because 1. they know how to play the claiming game and know how to grab the right ones 2. because they really have serious intentions as soon as they get the horse

Unfortunately the stats are readily available, so those of us who used to keep track have no edge knowing the tendencies. Still, its pretty silly to bet the claimed horse of a trainer who has an overall 20% win rate and a 5% win rate off the claim. On the other hand, a trainer with a 15% overall win rate and a 30% win rate off the claim - every horse must be considered.

I would definitely look for the stables 'go to' rider. Again, that is using tendencies. How do you think the agent of the 'go to' rider feels if he can't get on the horse and they win with a second stringer? Sure, maybe they are playing a game, but unless you have the inside info, I'd be afraid of betting just guessing what they are up to.

Since the smart trainers are watching the horses prior to the claim, I love any change in equipment - blinkers on or off. Also, first time lasix (when is that an angle anymore, except for a 2 yr old's 2nd race?), change in distance, change in surface.... A relatively young horse claimed and then sent 2 turns for the first time, especially when the trainer has a good record sprint to route....

Sorry for being long winded.

[alysheba88]

Comes down to trainer profile. There are trainers who have great ROI's off first claim, and there are others who are pitiful. Know the trainer. When looking at past claims look at races he/she won first off. Was it dropping? Was it going up? Time frame? Jockey switch. All the info is out there, you just have to look for it. Past performance may not guarantee future results in investing, but in the horse game, its a pretty good indicator of.

[MANOWAR]

Yesterday, I was looking through some DRF back issues and noticed that there were some trainers who have poor win % with 1st time claims, and the horses they claimed from their last starts went on to win their next starts. These horses paid quite well. Would you say it was luck that these horses won right off the bat, would say the pace of the race was key to their victories, or what?

I don't pay too much attention to trainer/jockey combinations. It would take some time to compile trainer/jockey stats for each track I play. Wait a minute, isn't there a couple of books out on the market that compile trainer/jockey stats for the past year?

[pic6vic]

ManOwar

The stats you are talking about are free at www.turfday.com.
However, some stats will not be free starting march 24th.

[MANOWAR]

pic6vic

How accurate are Turfday's trainer/jockey stats?

[pic6vic]

They are the same taht is in the DRF, but forlonger periods of time. They tell you what periods of time the stats cover.

[Fastracehorse]

Manly,

Claims are extremely dangerous - always.

Even if it is 5th start off of the claim - and the horse hasn't won - the trainer is still looking for a spot.

It is a bad trainer who can't get the job done - so almost everyone will eventually.

Hence, claims - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th. - etc., are alwys a good angle.

Usually hot trainers claim horses - because smart owners know they are getting the job done.

But if a horse fits, and a trainer is 0 for 20 off of the claim - the horse is still dangerous.

One angle is to claim horse for 16k - immediately drop him for 10k- break even with the purse check if he is claimed back ( plus a bet ) - then win at 10k again because the suspicious dropper probably won't be claimed back.

In California I go with the good for 2 angle: Horse tries in jail, if he doesn't win he drops, and probably will get you a $6 mutuel - yuk.

fffastt

[MANOWAR]

Is the 30 day jail time mandatory at all tracks if the new trainer doesn't want to move the horse up in class after the claim?

[Early]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
Manly,

Claims are extremely dangerous - always.

Even if it is 5th start off of the claim - and the horse hasn't won - the trainer is still looking for a spot.

It is a bad trainer who can't get the job done - so almost everyone will eventually.

Hence, claims - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th. - etc., are alwys a good angle.

Usually hot trainers claim horses - because smart owners know they are getting the job done.

But if a horse fits, and a trainer is 0 for 20 off of the claim - the horse is still dangerous.

One angle is to claim horse for 16k - immediately drop him for 10k- break even with the purse check if he is claimed back ( plus a bet ) - then win at 10k again because the suspicious dropper probably won't be claimed back.

In California I go with the good for 2 angle: Horse tries in jail, if he doesn't win he drops, and probably will get you a $6 mutuel - yuk.

fffastt

Really. I always assumed a claiming trainer who is 0 for 20 is about to become 0 for 21. And if a horse doesn't win off the claim, or second off the claim (the first stat is readily available, the second I keep track of), after that the claim is a non factor, and the horse is just another horse. Actually, if the horse hasn't won by the second start, I downgrade it, since it is a sign the claiming trainer hasn't a clue, or hasn't figured the horse out.

Remember when Aromanches was claimed last year. Automatic throwout until he went back to Lake's barn.

[MANOWAR]

Early

I'd probably would give the trainer 3 starts off the claim. If the trainer hasn't figured out where the horse belongs, then I would downgrade the horse unless the horse ran into trouble in a prior race. I believe 4 or 5 starts after the claim is a little much.

[Fastracehorse]

Semi-pro trainers, ie trainers that are 0 for, can easily get the job done if they have the horse.

There are lots of reasons why trainers have the %'s they do - if you have a big successful barn you are not afraid to lose the horse, and hence business - but lower profile trainers spot their horses a little higher - keeps the training bills coming in and, if they get the right horse, they can get get the job done.

And if they do get the job done - boxcars!

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

As I said earlier, claims are always dangerous.

Remember, the horse may need a freshening - but look out - trainers will usually get the job done.

And if it's 5th time, like you, everybody has given up and hence, moola!

fffastt

[MANOWAR]

Fast

I went over quite a number of races from different tracks across the country. Horses that were claimed 5 races ago, that did win, paid underlaid prices. These horses dropped in class, start after start. They improved, start after start. Moola. What Moola?

[Fastracehorse]

You'll find some beauties.

fffastt

[Tom]

Ed Bain sell stats on 1-2-3-4 times after claim. I know at FL we have some trainers the win third or fourth after the claim.

O-for trainers and 0-for horse are great for prices.
People lagh about Zippy Chippy, but we have horses who are 1-67, 1-70, 2-90, etc. I hit an exacta once with a 1-67 horse over a 2-55 horse. It paid $12!
When a horse get claimed, I look for changes - equipment, jockey, class, distance.....And now with lifetime PPs available with Formulator, I can go back and see what the horse used to do (and sometimes you find out it was once owned by today's "new" owner and claimed back - very powerful angle.

[MANOWAR]

Tom

I always found FL tough to handicap. I guess it's just knowing trainer motives and intentions.

I still don't like playing horses that were claimed 4 or 5 races ago. Especially if the horse improves each start. Odds just seem to plummet.

[MANOWAR]

Is jail time mandatory if a trainer decides not to bump his horse up in class within 30 days after the claim?

[GameTheory]

For states with the "jail" requirement, it just means that if you race the horse within 30 days after the claim, it must be at a higher class. It doesn't require you to race the horse within 30 days, and after the 30 days you can place the horse where ever eligible as usual.

[Fastracehorse]

If first place is last loser how can second place be 1st loser??

Just a thought before I handicap Oaklawn now.

fffastt

[MANOWAR]

I've noticed at several smaller tracks such as Laurel, Calder, Philadelphia, and Suffolk that these tracks are less strict when it comes to the 30 day jail time rule. Maybe the Racing Secretary at these tracks wants to keep their trainer colony as happy as can be, that they'll allow trainers to slide on this rule some.

[Fastracehorse]

So how potent of an angle do you think the claim is??

fffastt

[MANOWAR]

Fast

As far as 4 or 5 starts off the claim, I'm still not convinced. After doing research, I haven't seen anything positive to think otherwise.