BEL 9-27 Better-than-Beyers

[jonnielu]

Better Than Beyers - Belmont Park 9/27/2008 Saturday -
1st - 6.5fD
1 68
2 70
3 75
4 76
5 71
6 88
7 72
8 83
9 78
10 82


2nd - 8fD

1 82
1A 79
2 80
3 83
4 87
5 66
6 81
7 85

3rd - 9fTurf

1 84
2 91
3 91
4 92
5 88
6 89
7 90
8 91
9 91
10 86
11 88
12 95

[jonnielu]

4th - 6fD

1 89
1A 91
2 92
2B94
3 57
4 90
5 62
6 72
7 70
8 81
9 87
10 90
11 88
12 68

6th - 9fD

1 100
2 101
3 106
4 99
5 103

7th - 10fTurf

1 106
2 105
3 103
4 106
5 99
6 104

8th - 6fD

1 105
2 107
2 104
4 110
5 100
6 106
7 99

9th - 12fTurf

1 100
2 98
3 107
4 95
5 105
6 107
7 104
8 100
9 106

10th - 10fD

:1: 97
:2: 102
:3: 98
:4: 104
:5: 108
:6: 103
:7: 106
:8: 96
:9: 107

[timtam]

I have your ability ratings for Sept 27th and these numbers aren't even

the same. Please unconfuse me :confused:

[jonnielu]

I have your ability ratings for Sept 27th and these numbers aren't even

the same. Please unconfuse me :confused:

Well, these aren't my ability ratings. These are my Better-Than-Beyers, you would look at these in the same perspective as you would for speed figures. The difference is that these speed figures are in a Beyer format, but they reflect ability more then just time and some poor guesswork/excusemaking with regard to the track surface.

Not as good as my ability ratings since they would be used in the "best" horse perspective that keeps much of the realities of racing well hidden from the handicapper, but, better than Beyers when ability is stirred in. It allows the handicapper to find a few good bets, even from the "best" horse perspective that usually just leads to the favorite anyway.

My ability ratings are designed to lay bare the ability to run, in order to perform well and best support a "best bet" perspective, as opposed to the "best" horse perspective that often leads to the overall high percentage loss.

The Better-Than-Beyers are design to show what speed figures could have been, if they reflected ability to a greater degree.

jdl

[Tom]

Is "Better than Beyers" based on opinion or data?
The flaw I see right off is you pick one number....not at all the way Beyers are used, so are you the apple of the orange?

[PaceAdvantage]

So, were they actually "Better-than-Beyers" or not?

[jonnielu]

Better Than Beyers - Belmont Park 9/27/2008 Saturday -
1st - 6.5fD
1 68
2 70
3 75
4 76
5 71
6 88
7 72
8 83
9 78
10 82

Beyer - 82 - 8 Coastal Drive 7.80 4.10 3.20
Beyer - 81 - 10 Little Wise Guy 7.50 5.10
Beyer - 67 - 1 Run Warrior Run 15.20


2nd - 8fD

1 82
1A 79
2 80
3 83
4 87
5 66
6 81
7 85

Beyer - 72 - 1A Take the Points 5.70 2.60 2.10
Beyer - 84 - 7 Nowhere to Hide 2.60 2.50
Beyer - 66 - 3 Retriever 5.20


3rd -9fTurf

1 84
2 91
3 91
4 92
5 88
6 89
7 90
8 91
9 91
10 86
11 88
12 95

Beyer - 78 - 5 Express to Thewest 11.20 7.10 4.10
Beyer - 91 - 3 Special Tesoro 29.40 14.60
Beyer - 61 -11 Top Leader 6.10

[timtam]

I am totally confused. You send out ability ratings then you send out

better than beyers which aren't ability ratings. You state in your previous

posts you wait until close to post time to make your selections. You want

to have a seminar with only a few people to show them how you make your

selections. So do you use ability ratings, better than beyers, a combination

of a and b or do you have a few more ratings? Come on this sounds like

redboarding to me. It reminds me of Dan Popes stuff. He sells you a

can't lose method but for $25 more bucks he will sell you something even

better. If ability ratings are that good why do you need better than beyers?

So does your seminar focus on ability ratings or better than beyers.

Its starting to sound like a lot of hodgepodge to me. :confused:

[jonnielu]

4th - 6fD

1 89
1A 91
2 92
2B94
3 57
4 90
5 62
6 72
7 70
8 81
9 87
10 90
11 88
12 68

Beyer - 37 - 1A Touchdown Kid 13.00 6.90 5.20
Beyer - 83 - 4 Debating 4.00 3.00
Beyer - 63 - 10 Ferocious Won 5.70

6th - 9fD

1 100
2 101
3 106
4 99
5 103

Beyer - 91 - 3 Cocoa Beach (CHI) 7.10 2.90
Beyer - 104 - 1 Ginger Punch 2.10
Beyer - 104 - 2 Lemon Drop Mom

7th - 10fTurf

1 106
2 105
3 103
4 106
5 99
6 104

Beyer - 86 - 3 Dynaforce 8.60 3.40 2.30
Beyer - 105 - 4 Mauralakana (FR) 2.30 2.10
Beyer - 102 - 2 Communique 2.20

8th - 6fD

1 105
2 107 Beyer - 101
3 104 Beyer - 92
4 110 Beyer - 108
5 100
6 106 Beyer - 112
7 99

Beyer - 99 - 7 Black Seventeen 49.60 14.00 7.10
Beyer - 101 - 1 Fabulous Strike 4.70 3.30
Beyer - 90 - 5 Kodiak Kowboy 4.50

9th - 12fTurf

1 100
2 98 Beyer - 101
3 107 Beyer - 94
4 95 Beyer - 104
5 105
6 107
7 104
8 100
9 106

Beyer - 104 - 6 Grand Couturier (GB) 7.30 4.10 3.00
Beyer - 94 - 1 Interpatation 12.40 6.40
Beyer - 95 - 5 Summer Patriot 5.20

10th - 10fD

:1: 97
:2: 102
:3: 98
:4: 104
:5: 108
:6: 103
:7: 106
:8: 96
:9: 107

Beyer - 112 - 5 Curlin 2.80 2.10 2.10
Beyer - 107 - 4 Wanderin Boy 4.20 3.70
Beyer - 104 - 2 Merchant Marine 5.70

[Tom]

3 wins each, with you dictating how the Beyers are used.
$0.90 edge to Beyer.

So, since you dictated how his figs were used, I'd say he beat you with one hand tied behind his back! :D

[jonnielu]

I am totally confused. You send out ability ratings then you send out

better than beyers which aren't ability ratings. You state in your previous

posts you wait until close to post time to make your selections. You want

to have a seminar with only a few people to show them how you make your

selections. So do you use ability ratings, better than beyers, a combination

of a and b or do you have a few more ratings? Come on this sounds like

redboarding to me. It reminds me of Dan Popes stuff. He sells you a

can't lose method but for $25 more bucks he will sell you something even

better. If ability ratings are that good why do you need better than beyers?

So does your seminar focus on ability ratings or better than beyers.

Its starting to sound like a lot of hodgepodge to me. :confused:

Well, sorry for the confusion, but I didn't send out BTB's, I just posted two days here, so that you could see what the possibilities might be if they reflected ability, more then time.

The BTB's are just a way to express ability ratings along the lines of a Beyer number instead of the two-part expression of my ability ratings. The purpose was to see if the handicapper understood them more readily. Finding the handicapper's perspective is the main purpose of most of my keyboard pounding here for the past year.

When I realized last year how good my ratings were for making sound betting decisions, I wanted to know if they were also marketable, so I decided to spend a years time on that effort while I worked them out even further through my own use.

I'll always be using my ratings instead of anything else, the 15 minutes I spend analyzing a race is a habit that I have had for a long time, and my ratings facilitate it very well, so I won't be changing that either. But, I will change directions with regard to marketing my ratings.

jdl

[John Eh]

4th - 6fD

1 89
1A 91
2 92
2B94
3 57
4 90
5 62
6 72
7 70
8 81
9 87
10 90
11 88
12 68

Beyer - 37 - 1A Touchdown Kid 13.00 6.90 5.20
Beyer - 83 - 4 Debating 4.00 3.00
Beyer - 63 - 10 Ferocious Won 5.70

6th - 9fD

1 100
2 101
3 106
4 99
5 103

Beyer - 91 - 3 Cocoa Beach (CHI) 7.10 2.90
Beyer - 104 - 1 Ginger Punch 2.10
Beyer - 104 - 2 Lemon Drop Mom

7th - 10fTurf

1 106
2 105
3 103
4 106
5 99
6 104

Beyer - 86 - 3 Dynaforce 8.60 3.40 2.30
Beyer - 105 - 4 Mauralakana (FR) 2.30 2.10
Beyer - 102 - 2 Communique 2.20

8th - 6fD

1 105
2 107 Beyer - 101
3 104 Beyer - 92
4 110 Beyer - 108
5 100
6 106 Beyer - 112
7 99

Beyer - 99 - 7 Black Seventeen 49.60 14.00 7.10
Beyer - 101 - 1 Fabulous Strike 4.70 3.30
Beyer - 90 - 5 Kodiak Kowboy 4.50

9th - 12fTurf

1 100
2 98 Beyer - 101
3 107 Beyer - 94
4 95 Beyer - 104
5 105
6 107
7 104
8 100
9 106

Beyer - 104 - 6 Grand Couturier (GB) 7.30 4.10 3.00
Beyer - 94 - 1 Interpatation 12.40 6.40
Beyer - 95 - 5 Summer Patriot 5.20

10th - 10fD

:1: 97
:2: 102
:3: 98
:4: 104
:5: 108
:6: 103
:7: 106
:8: 96
:9: 107

Beyer - 112 - 5 Curlin 2.80 2.10 2.10
Beyer - 107 - 4 Wanderin Boy 4.20 3.70
Beyer - 104 - 2 Merchant Marine 5.70





So race # 4 2B has best ability raing :confused: didn't win
niether did most of the other best ability :confused:


Am i Missing something ....

John Eh :)

[jonnielu]

The first thing is that 2B scratched. The other thing is that the horse's ability to run is subject to a couple of other things when in competition.

jdl