Interesting payout at Turfway...

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Early Pik4 on Friday night:

Race1 (ML 8-5) paid $6.60
Race2 (ML 10-1) paid $19.60
Race3 (ML 5-1) paid $8.40
Race4 (ML 8-1) paid $13.40

Off odds of 2-1, 8-1, 3-1, & 5-1..... You might think a Pik4 payout of $400?

One ticket swept the pool for .....

$16,358.20

I'm thinking that I've been swimming in the wrong pools. :eek:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Wow, that has to be a misprint because I don't think even the late pick 4 pool gets that much in it.Unless everyone is tuning in and playing TP because of Kentucky Cup Weekend.

?????

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Wow, that has to be a misprintEarly Pik4 pool (races 1-4) $19,481 (Pool) 2-1, 8-1, 3-1, 5-1 (Off Odds) = $16,358.20 ($1 payout):ThmbUp:
Middle Pik4 pool (races 5-8) $20,635 (Pool) 7-1, 9-2, 5-2, 7-2 (Off Odds) = $1,069.20 ($1 payout)
Late Pik4 pool (races 7-10) $18,725 (Pool) 5-2, 7-2, 5-1, 5-1 (Off Odds) = $2,445.60 ($1 payout)

Total odds of the early pool were 20-1. (yielding a payout of 16,358-1) 24.6-1 ML
Total odds of the middle pool were 18.9-1. (yielding a payout of 1,069-1) 16-1 ML
Total odds of the late pool were 17-1. (yielding a payout of 2,445-1) 22-1 ML

I would say the early Pik4 was somewhat of an overlay.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I still don't see where they came up with that number Hajack.

They take out 22% taxes out on exotic wagers so that would leave the post tax pool at $15,196.00.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I hear ya!

When I first saw the number, I did the math and came up with a takeout of about 16.5%. I figured my takeout numbers were outdated and that TP had dropped their Pik4 take.

These are the numbers reported by both Youbet and Brisnet.

Does anyone know the answer as to why the takeout was less than the normal 22.5% that Turfway Park usually extracts? Have they gone the route of Keeneland's 17% take on Pik4's?

[bigmack]

Must be a typo or :confused: as Turfway remains intact with a 22% TO on exotics.

[DanG]

Thanks for the heads up Hajck!

Even the pick-3’s drowned most parlays all night. Time to look seriously at TP! :ThmbUp:

[Tom Barrister]

The takeout is almost exactly 16%.

My guess is that the winning bettor was from Australia, which I believe has a maximum takeout of 16%. Net pool pricing (or the equivalent by agreement with Australia) would be in effect, and that would account for the payout.

[Zman179]

The $1 bet was made in Canada. No question--the math works out right for a 22% takeout rate.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The $1 bet was made in Canada. No question--the math works out right for a 22% takeout rate.

How do you get it right if you take out 22% of $19,481 pool???That's what we're all trying to figure out here.

[Overlay]

Does the exchange rate figure into it?

[kyle2227]

How do you get it right if you take out 22% of $19,481 pool???That's what we're all trying to figure out here.

I'm thinking maybe the exchange rate?

[big frank]

i went 3 for 4 in the early pick 4 at turfway about 2 weeks ago , i caught the first 2 legs at decent prices , missed the 3rd that i am an idiot for not having , he was the the chalk coming in from churchill , and went to check the payoffs i should have been alive to thinking they would be around 2,000 and i couldnt believe the one that won paid 10,000 for a dollar. i believe it was 5 or 6 times the parlay. . i am still thinking about that one that got away.

[Tom Barrister]

The exchange rate is about 1.03 CAD to 1 USD, so the adjusted payout would be about $15,681 CAD. I'm pretty sure that payouts are in USD.

I would still guess that whatever agreement Turfway has with the outlet that sold the winning ticket limits the takeout to 16%.

[Burls]

I think that when the pool is listed they are only counting the money actually bet at TP.
Then, the outside ADW wagering has to be added to the money bet at TP to make a total 'common pool'.
Payouts are determined by the common pool; not just the money bet at the track itself.
The total common pool could have been $200,000.00 for that P4, so that after takeout there were 10 winning $1 P4 tickets.

[Cangamble]

The exchange rate is about 1.03 CAD to 1 USD, so the adjusted payout would be about $15,681 CAD. I'm pretty sure that payouts are in USD.

I would still guess that whatever agreement Turfway has with the outlet that sold the winning ticket limits the takeout to 16%.
The payout in this kind of pool with one winner reflects what the winner gets.
It makes sense that it was a Australian. The payoff amount is the odds that the Australian would have got. They actually have an advantage in that their dollar is less than 90% the value of what a US dollar is, when it comes to pool shots.
Takeout for Turfway is 22%.



BTW, a parlay would have paid $910, not $400...still a huge overlay though.

[Pace Cap'n]

So we are betting on an event while having no idea how the payoff will be calculated, and are clueless as to how to check the math when the payout is announced.. Sweet!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I think that when the pool is listed they are only counting the money actually bet at TP.If this is true, then my entire perspective of the horizontal pools needs to change.

Are you telling me that the final Pik4 pool, listed in the charts, is only a partial, on site, total? Why then, would each track's Pik6 totals include all ADW's and simulcast wager's placed?

Now, I could be wrong, Burls, but I just don't think that this is the case in this instance.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

BTW, a parlay would have paid $910, not $400...still a huge overlay though.The stated $400 total would have just been an estimate of how much a Pik4 would have paid with combined odds of 20-1 and bet down from their Morning Line. I've seen Pik4's pay less than $500 with combined odds of over 30-1.

As a rule though, the Pik4's payouts usually do exceed the parlay total, but you are right on about the huge overlay. I'm thinking the ticket holder had to be shocked with his/her payout, and delighted in the 16% takeout.

[Cangamble]

Again, the takeout didn't change for this event.
I'll use an easier example. Lets say a track takeout is 20%. Lets also say that Canadian dollars are on par with American but Australian dollars are 90 cents to the dollar.
$50,000 is bet into the pool. Ok, there is one more problem. The pool would state $50,000 even if it was $30,000 coming from Canada and the US and $20,000 coming from Australia. So in this example, there is only $48,000 American in the pool (30 + 90% of 20).
Therefore, after takeout there is $38,400 US dollars to be had by the public (48 times .8).
If an American was the sole winner, the payout would be $38,400, but if an Aussie won it with Aussie dollars, he would be paid over $42,500 Aussie dollars, and the payoff listed at Turfway would give the impression that they paid out $42,500. There is only one payoff...the same payoff shows in Canada, the US, and Australia.

A little twist. If there are two winners. One in Australia and one in the US, the same $38,400 has to be paid off (but not split equally because there is only one payoff), so the payoff would be over $40,000, because $20,000 Australian is only $18,000 American. The American would get a bigger share, but then again, he paid relatively more to make the wager.

[Pace Cap'n]

Are you positive of this? I find it odd that a US track would post payouts in something other than US dollars.

Imagine what the payoff would be if the wager was from Hong Kong.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Again, the takeout didn't change for this event.
Very interesting.

So if the ticket had been purchased at Prairie Meadows, the 22% would have applied and the posted payout would have been 6% less than the one listed in this example.

...and if two tickets would have taken down the pool, one from the US and another from either the exampled Canada or Australia, the US price would be posted, but the Aussie would receive 6% more than the posted price.

Seems logical.

What about the Aussie betting from his laptop at a hotel in Los Angeles, with a Melbourne billing address? Does he still get the 16% takeout... and how do I set up a pseudo-residence in Australia?

Never mind, I'll just move there. 8 years too late, but you know what they say about better late than never.....

[Cangamble]

There is no 16% takeout. The track took out 22%. If the ticket was bought in the US it would have paid less only because it was paid out in US dollars, not Australian dollars.

[Cangamble]

Are you positive of this? I find it odd that a US track would post payouts in something other than US dollars.

Imagine what the payoff would be if the wager was from Hong Kong.
Again, the track ends up giving US dollars to the Australia hub theoretically upon settlement. In theory, the Australian hub takes the US money and changes it to Australian dollars.

[barn32]

What about the Aussie betting from his laptop at a hotel in Los Angeles, with a Melbourne billing address? Does he still get the 16% takeout... and how do I set up a pseudo-residence in Australia?

Never mind, I'll just move there. 8 years too late, but you know what they say about better late than never.....They won't let you move there. You can visit, but you can't stay.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

They won't let you move there. You can visit, but you can't stay.I had heard if I drag along a 7 figure bank account and have a productive trade, that I would be embraced. Not true?

[barn32]

I had heard if I drag along a 7 figure bank account and have a productive trade, that I would be embraced. Not true?Could be, but I doubt it. I know a couple of professional gamblers with healthy bankrolls who tried to move there but no go. The same was true for New Zealand I believe.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I know a couple of professional gamblers with healthy bankrolls who tried to move there but no go.Ahhh, but that was not the productive trade I would submit. I'm heading for the land down under....where women glow and men plunder. :liar:

[Zman179]

Again, the track ends up giving US dollars to the Australia hub theoretically upon settlement. In theory, the Australian hub takes the US money and changes it to Australian dollars.

The bet was not won with Australian dollars, but rather with Canadian dollars. The OANDA paper exchange rate between the US and Australian currencies on the date of the race was $1.19 A for $1 US, therefore mathematically eliminating Australia from consideration.

The Canadian exchange rate (which was $1.035 CAD for $1 USD) is not the rate in which American and Canadian dollars are actually exchanged (think when you come back from vacation and you have to change back your foreign money to greenbacks). Anytime you make a cross-border transaction between two varying currencies, there is a markup on the price that is posted. So the actual exchange rate for a preferred client would roughly have been between $1.075 CAD and $1.08 for $1 USD; there is no additional reconversion fee for pari-mutuel entities. For you and me, the rate would have been between $1.10 and $1.11.

The pool was $19,481. Minus the 22% takeout, the amount available to bettors was $15,195.18, but the posted payoff was $16,358.20. That means that the lone winning ticket was purchased for slightly less than an American dollar.

At the estimated preferred bankrate of $1.07653 CAD for $1 US, one Canadian dollar in this pick four would have indeed netted back $16,358 USD. So the posted payoff at Turfway was for an approximately 93¢ US wager.

[MakinItHappen]

The bet was not won with Australian dollars, but rather with Canadian dollars. The OANDA paper exchange rate between the US and Australian currencies on the date of the race was $1.19 A for $1 US, therefore mathematically eliminating Australia from consideration.

The Canadian exchange rate (which was $1.035 CAD for $1 USD) is not the rate in which American and Canadian dollars are actually exchanged (think when you come back from vacation and you have to change back your foreign money to greenbacks). Anytime you make a cross-border transaction between two varying currencies, there is a markup on the price that is posted. So the actual exchange rate for a preferred client would roughly have been between $1.075 CAD and $1.08 for $1 USD; there is no additional reconversion fee for pari-mutuel entities. For you and me, the rate would have been between $1.10 and $1.11.

The pool was $19,481. Minus the 22% takeout, the amount available to bettors was $15,195.18, but the posted payoff was $16,358.20. That means that the lone winning ticket was purchased for slightly less than an American dollar.

At the estimated preferred bankrate of $1.07653 CAD for $1 US, one Canadian dollar in this pick four would have indeed netted back $16,358 USD. So the posted payoff at Turfway was for an approximately 93¢ US wager.

This explanation get's my vote! :ThmbUp:

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen