Confirm a +12% ROI Situation?

[podonne]

Hello,

This popped out of my program today and it seemed, well, too good to be true. This triggered a 1.12 ROI at a 17% win rate on about 100 races, just by itself and nothing else did without several other factors in combination. Thought I'd send it out and see what everyone thinks:

Rank the entries in reverse order based on averaging the last three first fraction velocities at similar (+\- 110yds) distances. Select any entry that scores higher than 6. Basically, the fastest first fraction velocity horses in a race.

Thanks,
Philip

[dutchboy]

Means nothing. Anyone can use a program and 100 races to show a decent profit. Did the 100 races have a couple of longshots to goose the roi?

Any computer program will be able to show a profit if you can pick the sequence of races and the pick out one item to focus on.

Did you go back 100 races before this several times? Have you used the same selections going forward? Try 10-12 tracks per day at 8-10 races per day for a month and see what happens.

[podonne]

Hmmm. On a larger sample it was not quite so profitable. Guess i answered my own question.

[dutchboy]

Maybe not. Create a spreadsheet or database and track the selections and the odds. Maybe long term if you only bet 8-1 plus or whatever minimum odds you want to set you might do pretty good.

There could be 5 winners at 10-1 plus and 5 losers at 10-1 plus. And in your 100 race sample all of the other selections were 2-1 and less and net losers.
So you stop betting 2-1 and less and only bet 8-1 or 10-1 and up. If you do not keep accurate records you will never know.

If you only bet the 10-1 plus long term who knows what might happen. 100 races is just to small a sample to base anything on. Believe 300 may be the popular size sample before you may have any idea how you might do.

[JustRalph]

try it track to track.................

I never realized how big a difference there is between some tracks until I started keeping a database