What races produce the most favorites?

[dav4463]

Is there a site that lists the tracks and/or types of races that produce the most winning favorites?

For longshot players, it would give you an idea of which races to avoid. For chalk players, it would give you a good starting point in looking for winning favorites.

[Bill Cullen]

Studies have shown that races with the lowest priced favorites tend to produce the most winning favorites.

Bill C

[skate]

agree

i'd say, for long shots

1) 1st timers
2) turf
3) 2 turns

[onefast99]

Starter allowances seem to produce an 8-5 and a 9-5 a lot. Especially if you have 8 or 9 horses in the race.

[cj's dad]

Starter allowances seem to produce an 8-5 and a 9-5 a lot. Especially if you have 8 or 9 horses in the race.

Isn't that because many Starter Allowance races are written with certain owner/trainers in mind to pay back favors such as previously helping to fill a short field?

[Tom Barrister]

Here is a one-year study of favorite at various tracks:


Track Win Plays Win%

AP 319 1026 31.09%
AQU 400 1196 33.44%
BEL 367 1084 33.86%
BEU 345 981 35.17%
BM 445 1092 40.75%
CBY 230 604 38.08%
CD 350 1019 34.35%
CNL 63 236 26.69%
CRC 727 2002 36.31%
CT 929 2474 37.55%
DED 327 957 34.17%
DEL 434 1210 35.87%
DMR 83 278 29.86%
ELP 124 344 36.05%
EMD 312 925 33.73%
EVD 323 985 32.79%
FG 305 845 36.09%
FL 545 1612 33.81%
GG 236 677 34.86%
GP 280 850 32.94%
HAW 366 1123 32.59%
HOL 351 1040 33.75%
HOO 240 646 37.15%
HOU 244 692 35.26%
IND 235 701 33.52%
KEE 75 320 23.44%
LAD 277 853 32.47%
LRL 476 1409 33.78%
LS 290 785 36.94%
MED 128 390 32.82%
MNR 798 2202 36.24%
MTH 324 817 39.66%
OP 164 550 29.82%
PEN 679 1761 38.56%
PHA 705 2176 32.40%
PID 100 327 30.58%
PIM 202 514 39.30%
PRM 300 818 36.67%
RD 349 863 40.44%
RET 116 342 33.92%
RP 220 659 33.38%
SA 290 1002 28.94%
SAR 97 316 30.70%
SUF 330 942 35.03%
TAM 345 1045 33.01%
TDN 385 1118 34.44%
TP 351 1146 30.63%
TUP 536 1419 37.77%
WO 479 1701 28.16%

[sammy the sage]

^^^^^^^^

well if you want long-shots....look at cnl, kee, dmr!

[stu]

http://www.homebased2.com/km/longshotchart.htm

[BillW]

Is there a site that lists the tracks and/or types of races that produce the most winning favorites?

For longshot players, it would give you an idea of which races to avoid. For chalk players, it would give you a good starting point in looking for winning favorites.

Here's by type:

# avg Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Field Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 142592 8.12 36% 28% 5.10 $ 21577 32% 38% 18% 8% 4%
Fast Track 119798 8.15 36% 27% 5.12 $ 21642 32% 38% 18% 8% 4%
Off Track 22794 7.92 36% 29% 4.98 $ 21234 33% 39% 18% 8% 3%
Dirt-Fast 94293 7.99 37% 29% 4.93 $ 17738 34% 38% 17% 8% 3%
Inner Dirt-Fast 1422 7.75 38% 35% 4.79 $ 38586 32% 41% 17% 8% 3%
Synthetic-Fast 11154 8.59 32% 21% 5.90 $ 33508 25% 40% 21% 10% 5%
Dirt-Off 20250 7.80 37% 30% 4.81 $ 17542 34% 38% 17% 8% 3%
Inner Dirt-Off 196 7.72 33% 36% 5.67 $ 42790 27% 40% 21% 9% 5%
Turf-Fast 11566 8.97 33% 19% 5.97 $ 38027 25% 39% 20% 10% 5%
Inner Turf-Fast 941 9.16 34% 17% 5.79 $ 39340 26% 41% 19% 9% 4%
St. Chase-Fast 58 8.71 24% 7% 5.94 $ 48914 24% 40% 26% 2% 9%
Turf-Off 2136 9.04 31% 16% 6.29 $ 50206 24% 40% 20% 11% 5%
Inner Turf-Off 178 9.15 26% 13% 7.29 $ 64469 16% 40% 25% 12% 7%
St. Chase-Off 13 6.77 31% 15% 4.40 $ 48687 38% 38% 15% 8% 0%
Dirt Routes 32202 7.68 37% 22% 4.84 $ 22827 33% 39% 17% 8% 3%
Inner Dirt Routes 675 7.61 35% 32% 5.11 $ 40135 28% 42% 17% 9% 4%
Synthetic Routes 3871 8.21 31% 16% 5.72 $ 37452 25% 39% 22% 10% 4%
St. Chase Routes 71 8.35 25% 8% 5.66 $ 48873 27% 39% 24% 3% 7%
Dirt Sprints 82341 8.07 38% 32% 4.93 $ 15699 34% 37% 17% 8% 3%
Inner Dirt Sprints 943 7.84 40% 37% 4.74 $ 38351 33% 39% 18% 7% 3%
Synthetic Sprints 7283 8.80 32% 23% 6.00 $ 31412 24% 40% 21% 10% 5%
Turf Routes 9225 9.00 33% 15% 6.00 $ 44296 25% 40% 20% 10% 5%
Inner Turf Routes 837 9.06 33% 14% 6.08 $ 45408 24% 41% 20% 10% 5%
Turf Sprints 4477 8.93 32% 26% 6.04 $ 30921 25% 40% 20% 10% 5%
Inner Turf Sprints 282 9.42 34% 23% 5.85 $ 37190 26% 40% 21% 9% 4%
Males 83811 8.16 36% 27% 5.13 $ 21355 32% 38% 18% 8% 4%
Females 58781 8.05 37% 28% 5.06 $ 21894 33% 38% 18% 8% 4%
2 YO 10745 8.33 39% 33% 5.10 $ 30979 36% 35% 17% 8% 4%
3 YO 14365 8.03 37% 27% 5.20 $ 34832 33% 37% 18% 8% 4%
3 YO & up 100056 8.10 36% 27% 5.07 $ 18651 32% 38% 18% 8% 3%
4 YO & up 17426 8.15 35% 26% 5.16 $ 21651 30% 40% 19% 8% 4%
Gr. Stk 1290 7.95 37% 19% 5.35 $292051 34% 34% 20% 8% 4%
non-Gr Stk 5538 7.54 42% 26% 4.43 $ 68633 42% 33% 15% 8% 3%
Alw 14672 7.72 37% 27% 4.77 $ 29397 34% 37% 18% 8% 3%
Alw open 975 6.70 43% 30% 3.75 $ 23443 41% 36% 16% 5% 1%
Alw n3x 175 6.79 41% 30% 3.93 $ 37445 39% 40% 15% 3% 2%
Alw n2x 1585 7.44 37% 25% 4.78 $ 36527 34% 37% 18% 7% 3%
Alw n1x 6474 8.11 36% 24% 5.11 $ 32918 31% 38% 18% 9% 3%
Alw n4l 254 6.96 43% 35% 4.13 $ 22021 42% 31% 16% 8% 2%
Alw n3l 1729 7.47 40% 31% 4.60 $ 22195 38% 35% 16% 9% 2%
Alw n2l 2685 7.74 37% 28% 4.63 $ 21701 35% 37% 18% 8% 3%
Alw n3$ 27 6.59 33% 7% 4.59 $ 41975 33% 44% 7% 7% 7%
Alw n2$ 104 6.38 46% 32% 3.10 $ 35076 49% 36% 11% 5% 0%
Alw n1$ 124 7.33 36% 26% 4.89 $ 25759 35% 35% 19% 6% 5%
Alw n4y 1 7.00 100% 100% 0.90 $ 3600 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alw n3y 3 6.33 33% 33% 2.03 $ 11633 33% 67% 0% 0% 0%
Alw n2y 9 7.11 56% 44% 1.99 $ 34933 67% 33% 0% 0% 0%
Alw n1y 9 7.78 44% 33% 4.84 $ 29944 44% 33% 0% 11% 11%
Opt. Clm 6916 7.18 36% 26% 4.58 $ 34511 33% 39% 18% 7% 2%
St Alw 3603 7.32 40% 27% 4.31 $ 18269 38% 37% 16% 7% 2%
Claiming 68053 8.03 35% 27% 5.17 $ 12011 30% 40% 19% 8% 3%
Clm open 23583 7.59 35% 26% 4.93 $ 15788 29% 41% 19% 8% 3%
Clm n4l 2396 7.92 36% 28% 5.02 $ 10340 31% 39% 18% 9% 3%
Clm n3l 10596 8.19 35% 28% 5.22 $ 11085 30% 40% 19% 8% 4%
Clm n2l 16958 8.41 35% 27% 5.50 $ 10958 30% 38% 18% 9% 4%
Clm n4y 1 7.00 100% 0% 1.10 $ 7000 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clm n3y 624 7.97 35% 25% 4.99 $ 7860 32% 39% 18% 7% 4%
Clm n2y 1980 8.59 36% 29% 5.26 $ 7415 31% 39% 18% 8% 4%
Clm n1y 1359 8.65 37% 28% 5.51 $ 7435 34% 37% 15% 9% 5%
Clm n2$ 107 7.20 35% 25% 4.95 $ 11646 22% 46% 16% 14% 2%
Clm 100000 5 5.40 0% 20% 5.89 $ 50200 0% 40% 40% 20% 0%
Clm 85000 28 6.71 50% 36% 3.93 $ 54600 46% 32% 11% 7% 4%
Clm 75000 26 7.00 31% 31% 4.74 $ 42462 31% 38% 19% 8% 4%
Clm 62500 151 7.52 34% 25% 5.55 $ 46338 26% 38% 21% 11% 4%
Clm 50000 598 7.39 31% 23% 5.33 $ 39477 23% 44% 21% 9% 3%
Clm 40000 1385 7.94 33% 23% 5.30 $ 35011 25% 42% 22% 9% 3%
Clm 32000 1393 7.66 33% 20% 5.28 $ 23464 28% 42% 20% 8% 3%
Clm 25000 3421 7.52 33% 25% 4.99 $ 22281 29% 41% 20% 9% 3%
Clm 20000 4243 7.46 34% 25% 5.09 $ 19138 28% 41% 19% 9% 3%
Clm 15000 3324 7.81 35% 26% 4.97 $ 15391 30% 40% 19% 8% 3%
Clm 12500 3048 7.55 34% 26% 4.97 $ 14097 31% 39% 19% 8% 3%
Clm 10000 6366 7.98 35% 27% 5.04 $ 13153 30% 40% 18% 9% 3%
Clm 8500 1817 7.91 34% 25% 5.12 $ 10503 29% 41% 19% 9% 3%
Clm 7500 5459 8.02 34% 26% 5.19 $ 10576 30% 39% 19% 9% 3%
Clm 6250 2972 7.90 35% 29% 5.20 $ 10891 31% 39% 18% 8% 4%
Clm 5000 14054 8.44 36% 27% 5.38 $ 9277 31% 39% 18% 8% 4%
Clm 4500 105 7.43 30% 30% 4.76 $ 7017 25% 46% 22% 6% 2%
Clm 4000 10863 8.29 36% 29% 5.23 $ 7715 32% 38% 17% 9% 4%
Clm 3500 2952 8.69 35% 26% 5.44 $ 5986 30% 39% 19% 9% 4%
Clm 3200 2355 7.81 34% 29% 4.91 $ 4933 30% 40% 19% 8% 3%
Clm 2500 3488 7.69 34% 34% 4.80 $ 4031 30% 41% 19% 8% 3%
MSW 15485 8.68 38% 29% 5.15 $ 28191 34% 36% 17% 8% 4%
MdnClm 26199 8.72 37% 30% 5.47 $ 12152 33% 37% 17% 8% 4%
Mcl 80000 52 7.92 27% 19% 5.96 $ 31192 21% 42% 19% 12% 6%
Mcl 75000 39 7.64 51% 28% 5.13 $ 33679 44% 23% 21% 10% 3%
Mcl 65000 7 7.00 43% 43% 5.18 $ 32571 43% 14% 29% 14% 0%
Mcl 62500 89 8.01 31% 21% 4.76 $ 28709 24% 49% 16% 8% 3%
Mcl 60000 10 7.50 40% 40% 5.66 $ 30300 20% 40% 30% 0% 10%
Mcl 50000 705 8.23 33% 27% 5.44 $ 23932 29% 39% 19% 10% 3%
Mcl 45000 117 9.32 28% 13% 5.68 $ 23916 18% 44% 26% 10% 3%
Mcl 40000 986 8.45 34% 27% 5.37 $ 22302 28% 41% 18% 9% 4%
Mcl 35000 310 8.47 31% 28% 5.48 $ 20397 26% 42% 19% 8% 5%
Mcl 32000 954 8.67 34% 29% 5.67 $ 20067 29% 38% 19% 9% 5%
Mcl 30000 589 8.64 36% 27% 5.36 $ 14439 29% 38% 21% 8% 4%
Mcl 25000 2555 8.71 34% 29% 5.83 $ 16825 29% 39% 19% 8% 5%
Mcl 20000 1415 8.58 37% 31% 5.66 $ 14240 34% 37% 17% 7% 5%
Mcl 18500 16 8.31 44% 31% 5.48 $ 12094 44% 19% 19% 12% 6%
Mcl 17500 42 7.71 40% 19% 6.35 $ 10689 33% 31% 21% 2% 12%
Mcl 16000 942 8.08 36% 33% 5.62 $ 13606 34% 38% 16% 8% 5%
Mcl 15000 1567 8.71 36% 29% 5.44 $ 11747 32% 37% 17% 9% 4%
Mcl 12500 2376 8.64 38% 27% 5.19 $ 11445 35% 36% 17% 7% 4%
Mcl 12000 179 7.66 36% 45% 4.40 $ 10685 34% 42% 16% 6% 2%
Mcl 11500 10 8.40 40% 10% 5.29 $ 9850 20% 50% 10% 20% 0%
Mcl 10000 3692 9.02 37% 31% 5.63 $ 10634 34% 36% 17% 8% 5%
Mcl 8000 1522 8.59 39% 30% 4.97 $ 8263 37% 37% 15% 8% 4%
Mcl 7500 1812 8.86 38% 31% 5.68 $ 7914 34% 36% 17% 10% 5%
Mcl 6250 284 8.07 37% 34% 5.41 $ 6020 35% 34% 19% 8% 4%
Mcl 5000 4592 9.06 38% 32% 5.52 $ 7840 34% 36% 17% 9% 5%
Mcl 4000 664 8.65 39% 30% 5.00 $ 6781 34% 37% 16% 9% 4%
Mcl 3500 645 8.20 37% 41% 4.68 $ 4721 38% 33% 18% 8% 3%



Looks like MDN and MCL bring in the most favs.

[jotb]

Is there a site that lists the tracks and/or types of races that produce the most winning favorites?

For longshot players, it would give you an idea of which races to avoid. For chalk players, it would give you a good starting point in looking for winning favorites.

This may not be a certain type of race condition but I would think jockeys and trainers not only produce favorites but also produce winning favorites. Here's an example. At CT JD Acosta this year has rode 330 favorites and has won 135 of those races for 41%. Travis Dunkelburger has rode 143 races and won 74 races for 52%. Trainer Stephanie Beattie has ran 118 races and won 62 races for 53%.

Joe

[citygoat]

favorites love 2 year old allowance races

[BIG RED]

That's amazing Bill,
I'm sure that's where you get your huge paying bombs also.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Long, cheap, slow and off tracks, no 1 big fav.

[facorsig]

It is a trick question. Every race produces a favorite.

[Imriledup]

^^^^^^^^

well if you want long-shots....look at cnl, kee, dmr!

Stay away from So Cal if you want longshots. Del Mar, SA and HOL are tracks dominated by favorites.

[Bill Cullen]

That's amazing Bill,
I'm sure that's where you get your huge paying bombs also.

Big Red,

Your first sentence above I think I get: you're reading between
the lines of my response and your implicit interpretation of my response is correct.

Your second sentence above is not clear to me.

Best,

Bill

P.S- "Big Red" ....Secretariat, right?

[Bill Cullen]

It is a trick question. Every race produces a favorite.

Could some of the responses be counter-tricks?

[dav4463]

It is a trick question. Every race produces a favorite.


I thought of that after I wrote it! I should have said "winning" favorites!

Great responses from everyone. thanks!