Something to Consider

[Pell Mell]

The Debate Between Figures and Flesh-and-Blood

HORSE SENSE:
The Debate Between Figures and Flesh-and-Blood





by Steve Collison

http://web.archive.org/web/20070129124424/http://www.webcom.com/~alauck/hr_rdbk.gif

How much do you know about horses as they pertain to handicapping? I'm not talking about as they appear in the Daily Racing Form or on a computer screen but as individual animals with different strengths and weaknesses which directly influence your perceptions of racing. If you mention a new pace handicapping software program, the average handicapper becomes interested. Mention something about confirmation and gait affecting a horse's chances of getting a distance and suddenly the porch lights begin to flicker. It's not an exaggeration to state that 95 percent of everyone reading this article knows nothing at all about horses. Since this game is based entirely on horses, this begs another question: Doesn't that seem slightly odd?



More at link:

http://web.archive.org/web/20070129124424/http://www.webcom.com/~alauck/atmcoll.html

[peakpros]

Ok...one guys opinion.

[jonnielu]

I think the article is right on the money, thanks for posting it Pell Mell:ThmbUp:

It could cause a few to break from the herd, but humans may have more of a herd mentality then cattle. As is continually demonstrated by the Beyer faithful.

jdl

[ranchwest]

Ok...one guys opinion.

:lol: Do they put 50 cents in the slot on the horses you bet?

[HUSKER55]

Wish I knew how to calculate it off the DRF.

I knew a lady years back who raced horses. She had an Arabian that had an attitude problem. If a horse came in from a "top stable" that horse would upchuck it's lungs to win IF there was a girl riding it. Let's see you handicap that into your system.

I have always thought if a person was able to judge horse on the hoof at the track you would be able to do what ever you wanted. I have learned that the race does not always go to the fastest horse. If that were true then Andy would have made us all millionaires.

husker55

:)

[Fingal]

That's why I choose to specialize in the So Cal circuit. There are things that a computer will see that the mind may not, but it takes experiance & putting it into context with race trouble & connections that matters. A computer may spit out numbers for every race at every track running on a particular day, but unless one wants to read charts & watch tapes close to 24 / 7, & forego any kind of a social life, they're just numbers.
And life's too short to do that.

[LottaKash]

I
It could cause a few to break from the herd, but humans may have more of a herd mentality then cattle. As is continually demonstrated by the Beyer faithful.

jdl

At the "Toll Booths".....Ever notice that many times you will observe that the majority of the cars waiting to pay their stipend. will be drawm to one or only a few of the lines to pay, when a lot of the other toll lanes will be mostly empty.....Safety in numbers ?........:jump:

best,

[LottaKash]

That's why I choose to specialize in the So Cal circuit.

The California Colts and Filles have that certain "Pizazz".....and you just can't quantify that.....You just gotta feel it Baby !......

best,

[jonnielu]

At the "Toll Booths".....Ever notice that many times you will observe that the majority of the cars waiting to pay their stipend. will be drawm to one or only a few of the lines to pay, when a lot of the other toll lanes will be mostly empty.....Safety in numbers ?........:jump:

best,

The 4-way stop is always entertaining too.

jdl

[Tom]

It's a big game....room for all types of approaches. Mine doesn't include the horse's appearance and very little of his trips. I don't have the time nor the interest to study anatomy and both tale too much time to play many tracks. I prefer to decide I want to play Mnr now and go do it. I use the tools I have that help me do that. I have been winning at the races for many years not using those tools. I may use trips more now, with the internet availability of them, but appearance is out my realm of interest.

Since both types of players seem to be able to win, I do not begrudge physicality cappers, I just don't have the elitist attitudes and put down others like most of them I know do. To me, it is the height of ignorance to tell a winner he is doing it wrong. Some here disagree......WGAS?

I suppose small packages might play a part of the need to feel superior.

[LottaKash]

The 4-way stop is always entertaining too.

jdl


Hey Jonnielu, I would bet that if a hidden camera were installed at every 4-way stops in America, you could make several "Funniest Videos" shows, and they would all be hoots.....:jump:

best,

[Charlie D]

It could cause a few to break from the herd, but humans may have more of a herd mentality then cattle. As is continually demonstrated by the Beyer faithful.

jdl



Here's a scenario


Herd stop using Beyer figs and uses say Abilty X, what happens to Ability X???


Abilty X becomes Beyer



Be thankful the Beyer faithful remain faithful imo




It's a big game....room for all types of approaches.


Amen to the above

[LottaKash]

"Do just once what others say you can't do, and you will never pay attention to their limitations again " - j.r. cook

[peakpros]

:lol: Do they put 50 cents in the slot on the horses you bet?

Sorry, I have no idea what you mean.

Its one guys opinion. 13 years old and offers nothing new IMO.

I play one track every day at the track. I use the best figs available and watch as much as I can.

The authors trying to say horse are not machines....

didn't katcha goodwon or something like that write that in the 80's....

[peakpros]

:lol: Do they put 50 cents in the slot on the horses you bet?


Yes...I see...poor word choice on my part.

I should have said..one guys approach.

[Steve 'StatMan']

:lol: Do they put 50 cents in the slot on the horses you bet?

If they did, they'd be very consistent and predictiable! ;)

[jonnielu]

Here's a scenario


Herd stop using Beyer figs and uses say Abilty X, what happens to Ability X???


Abilty X becomes Beyer



Be thankful the Beyer faithful remain faithful imo







Amen to the above

Hey Charlie,

I don't know if I can speak to that without sounding elitist to you or my pal Tom, but I don't feel that is really possible.

jdl

[jonnielu]

"Do just once what others say you can't do, and you will never pay attention to their limitations again " - j.r. cook





Here, Here :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

jdl

[Tom]

Yes...try pace figures!

[ranchwest]

Sorry, I have no idea what you mean.

Its one guys opinion. 13 years old and offers nothing new IMO.

I play one track every day at the track. I use the best figs available and watch as much as I can.

The authors trying to say horse are not machines....

didn't katcha goodwon or something like that write that in the 80's....

Whether it is one guy or a thousand or it is a day old or forty years old are not necessarily indicators of the soundness of the information.

Horses are not machines. I've used a lot of approaches and still do, but my biggest score this year was purely on physicality.

I read Katcha Goodwon's book, but I thought it was not nearly as good as it could have been. BTW, he says in the book that he trained Needles. Someone on this board once told his real name.

[dav4463]

The fastest horse does always win. (the fastest one today that is). Beyer figures, or any other figures, help people to make an educated guess as to who will be fastest today based on what they have done in the past.

It's just like football. Miami beat New England today. Past performances would say this is an upset. The best team did not win. However, they were the best team today. Does that mean gamblers who have made money on the Patriots for the past couple of years should not consider their past performances in their next game? The past performances will still show New England to be better than Miami. When they meet again, I wouldn't expect the same result.


Same thing with horses. Just because a high Beyer horse lost today, doesn't mean he lost his ability to run fast. He just had a bad day and you should not ignore him next time out or he will beat you.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know if I can speak to that without sounding elitist to you or my pal Tom, but I don't feel that is really possible.Well, that can only mean a few things:

a) Your ability figures stink....or

b) Your ability figures don't stink, but you're the only one who can use them effectively.....or

c) You're ignoring the effect of the masses handicapping as one under the pari-mutuel system of wagering.

[nobeyerspls]

When horses outrun their pedigree (Lil E Tee, Carry Back) or conformation (Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer) hidden talent emerges that is not evident from the gene pool or how they're made. I use conformation with first timers or with sprinters going a route for the first time.
After they run a few times their shoulder/croup balance, black-type lineage, or what they went for as yearlings is irrelevant.

[Pell Mell]

I think most of the comments here have gotten away from or not even considered the gist of the article. I believe the writer was referring to the behavior of horses and not their physical attributes. He was trying to point out that horses have personalities and are individuals in their own right and that their mental attitude may have more than a small effect when considering the outcome of a race.

[jonnielu]

Well, that can only mean a few things:

a) Your ability figures stink....or

b) Your ability figures don't stink, but you're the only one who can use them effectively.....or

c) You're ignoring the effect of the masses handicapping as one under the pari-mutuel system of wagering.

d) The nature of the game is what it is, and it has always been as it is, and it will always remain.

When the true nature of the game is understood, the handicapper will come to the realization that the idea of picking 8 winners on the ten race card on a consistent basis is simply fantasy.

I am not ignoring the effect of the masses handicapping as one (or as close to that as it has ever been), I am observing it on an everyday basis. There are as many under the speed umbrella today as there was under the class umbrella of the 60's. Computers have proliferated in the past 20 years.

Still, the game stands firm, with an unchanging win percentage for favorites and an average mutuel payout around 4-1. Which simply states, that the best horse doesn't always win. Most handicappers know this, and are exceedingly correct in that knowledge, though perhaps not accepting of it.

If it is elitist to state that I accepted that fact in 1982 and starting operating to understand what makes it so, (which took another 20+ years) then I guess that I am an elitist.

Personally, I don't take spending 20+ years trying to understand something that turns out to be rather simple is any great testament to the notion that I have some uncommon intellect. And, I am sure that I'll invoke a fresh round of ridicule for alluding to the simplicity of horse racing, so I may as well go in knee deep anyway.

There are 3 or 4 horses in today's race that are of relatively equal ability. That will provide for a relatively consistent result that will revolve around the handicapper's inability to pick just one that will win more often that not. Regardless of how good he/she is. The nature of the game + the nature of the bettor will always prevent everybody from picking the same horse for the same reasons most of the time.

My ratings will show you the true contenders in a race, this can be a tremendous benefit to you in making a betting decision. But, that decision is still yours to make. I would make mine according to my style and experience, I trust you would do the same, we may both enjoy a high level of success betting different horses in different ways every time, due to our individual nature + the nature of the game.

Yesterday, I elected to bet the no-brainers at BEL and AP:

2008-09-21 11:00:18 Bet* Arlington 1 Show $2.00 1 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:30:12 Bet* Belmont 6 Win $2.00 5 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:30:49 Bet* Belmont 7 Win $2.00 7 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:34:24 Bet* Belmont 9 Win $2.00 6 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:35:06 Bet Belmont 10 Win $2.00 3 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:55:36 Bet* Arlington 5 Win $2.00 4 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:56:29 Bet Arlington 7 Win $2.00 13 $2.00 $45.00
2008-09-21 12:22:44 Bet* Arlington 9 Win $2.00 6 $2.00
2008-09-21 15:29:19 Bet Arlington 10 Win $2.00 1 $2.00 $9.00
2008-09-21 15:53:02 Bet* Arlington 11 Win $2.00 1 $2.00

Anyone else may have done much better with completely different picks, but I didn't feel like thinking yesterday. There is a seat for every ass at the horse races. The masses might sit together, but betting as one is a bit unrealistic.

jdl

[Frank Angst]

OP lost me when he misspelled conformation.

[peakpros]

I think most of the comments here have gotten away from or not even considered the gist of the article. I believe the writer was referring to the behavior of horses and not their physical attributes. He was trying to point out that horses have personalities and are individuals in their own right and that their mental attitude may have more than a small effect when considering the outcome of a race.

yes...no doubt...some horse will not pass another horse on the inside...or like to run with dirt being kicked in their faces....or like any moisture on the track....

all good info...but collecting the info..or should i say collecting the correct info is the key.....IMHO

[PaceAdvantage]

My ratings will show you the true contenders in a race, this can be a tremendous benefit to you in making a betting decision. But, that decision is still yours to make. I would make mine according to my style and experience, I trust you would do the same, we may both enjoy a high level of success betting different horses in different ways every time, due to our individual nature + the nature of the game.No argument here....a sound reply. And one that could apply to Beyer figures as well, correct?

[Overlay]

No doubt that detailed knowledge of physicality provides an edge, and I have nothing but admiration for those who can incorporate that into their handicapping and wagering decisions. However, for those without a basis to make a judgment on that subject (due either to lack of information, or to not having access to inspection media), I think that performance patterns and published data (numerical and otherwise) still provide an adequate long-run basis for judging winning probabilties and finding value.

[cj's dad]

I think the article is right on the money, thanks for posting it Pell Mell:ThmbUp:

It could cause a few to break from the herd, but humans may have more of a herd mentality then cattle. As is continually demonstrated by the Beyer faithful.

jdl

Let the bashing begin:bang:

[ranchwest]

d) The nature of the game is what it is, and it has always been as it is, and it will always remain.

When the true nature of the game is understood, the handicapper will come to the realization that the idea of picking 8 winners on the ten race card on a consistent basis is simply fantasy.

I am not ignoring the effect of the masses handicapping as one (or as close to that as it has ever been), I am observing it on an everyday basis. There are as many under the speed umbrella today as there was under the class umbrella of the 60's. Computers have proliferated in the past 20 years.

Still, the game stands firm, with an unchanging win percentage for favorites and an average mutuel payout around 4-1. Which simply states, that the best horse doesn't always win. Most handicappers know this, and are exceedingly correct in that knowledge, though perhaps not accepting of it.

If it is elitist to state that I accepted that fact in 1982 and starting operating to understand what makes it so, (which took another 20+ years) then I guess that I am an elitist.

Personally, I don't take spending 20+ years trying to understand something that turns out to be rather simple is any great testament to the notion that I have some uncommon intellect. And, I am sure that I'll invoke a fresh round of ridicule for alluding to the simplicity of horse racing, so I may as well go in knee deep anyway.

There are 3 or 4 horses in today's race that are of relatively equal ability. That will provide for a relatively consistent result that will revolve around the handicapper's inability to pick just one that will win more often that not. Regardless of how good he/she is. The nature of the game + the nature of the bettor will always prevent everybody from picking the same horse for the same reasons most of the time.

My ratings will show you the true contenders in a race, this can be a tremendous benefit to you in making a betting decision. But, that decision is still yours to make. I would make mine according to my style and experience, I trust you would do the same, we may both enjoy a high level of success betting different horses in different ways every time, due to our individual nature + the nature of the game.

Yesterday, I elected to bet the no-brainers at BEL and AP:

2008-09-21 11:00:18 Bet* Arlington 1 Show $2.00 1 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:30:12 Bet* Belmont 6 Win $2.00 5 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:30:49 Bet* Belmont 7 Win $2.00 7 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:34:24 Bet* Belmont 9 Win $2.00 6 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:35:06 Bet Belmont 10 Win $2.00 3 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:55:36 Bet* Arlington 5 Win $2.00 4 $2.00
2008-09-21 11:56:29 Bet Arlington 7 Win $2.00 13 $2.00 $45.00
2008-09-21 12:22:44 Bet* Arlington 9 Win $2.00 6 $2.00
2008-09-21 15:29:19 Bet Arlington 10 Win $2.00 1 $2.00 $9.00
2008-09-21 15:53:02 Bet* Arlington 11 Win $2.00 1 $2.00

Anyone else may have done much better with completely different picks, but I didn't feel like thinking yesterday. There is a seat for every ass at the horse races. The masses might sit together, but betting as one is a bit unrealistic.

jdl

Once again you've provided a very verbose response as to what you don't believe and virtually nothing about what you do believe.

[ranchwest]

I think most of the comments here have gotten away from or not even considered the gist of the article. I believe the writer was referring to the behavior of horses and not their physical attributes. He was trying to point out that horses have personalities and are individuals in their own right and that their mental attitude may have more than a small effect when considering the outcome of a race.

A horse's physical attributes can indicate a lot about the mental state of the horse.

[ranchwest]

No doubt that detailed knowledge of physicality provides an edge, and I have nothing but admiration for those who can incorporate that into their handicapping and wagering decisions. However, for those without a basis to make a judgment on that subject (due either to lack of information, or to not having access to inspection media), I think that performance patterns and published data (numerical and otherwise) still provide an adequate long-run basis for judging winning probabilties and finding value.

Good post.

While I think physicality can be powerful, there's a lot it doesn't provide.

And, there's a lot of people who perform admirably without incorporating physicality.

[ezpace]

you graduated from pacefigure base to the addition of "case the race" for Caliphoney races.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I just want to ask a few questions.

Does anybody like horses???Does anybody like being at the track??Are you merely high tech gamblers who view horses like the Thorograph guys as "...slim pieces of paper..." and peer out and down from the narrow chinks of your cavern with contempt and mockery at the "fools" who use things like this as a benefit and love being around horses,at the track,and enjoy the overall ambience of the racetrack experience???

That seems to be the real issue here,the racetrack experience is different for everybody and I'm not trying to knock anybody but that's not what the starting point of the thread was.Living here in Cincinnati we have 10 months of live racing so things like this have come into play just by paying attention and being in the paddock area.But overall I just like being at the track,around horses in general,and have a whole gang to hang out with at the track,and I like winning,so it's just fun!!I still bet from home or elsewhere occasionally and bet simulcast during October and November but I can't imagine the void that would be there without being on-track a lot of the time,especially in the summer.

Long story short it just amazes me how often things exist only as duality and the concept of conjoining ideas foreign.It's called the best of both worlds and it can all work.When I'm sitting at a casino card table looking at some ugly mugs running their mouths I come to realize how much more enjoyable the racing experience is.Whatever works for YOU I'm not knocking.It just seems that most do not know or have forgotten the simple joy of the racing experience.

[ezpace]

http://www.casetherace.com/default.html

[cj's dad]

It just seems that most do not know or have forgotten the simple joy of the racing experience.

Not me- and I was reminded of that this past Saturday at Belmont watching some mighty good horses run in some pretty good races. Sitting in front of a computer and watching is not the same as the experience of being at the track with people, loonies included.:lol:

[completebill]

I'll tell you my personal perspective.----I'm a pretty serious bettor. I almost never see a horse. It's, to a great degree, become a game of numbers for me.
The primary problem, for me, is my disability. I can walk, but only for very short distances, and with great pain. I have a wheelchair, but use it only when I really HAVE to. Going to the racetrack is extremely difficult for me. AND--just as the tracks and racing organizations continually show their complete disdain for the horseplayer in so many areas, almost all tracks that I have visited offer NOTHING in the way of accomodation for the disabled. They just don't seem to give a damn.
In the past, when I was mobile, I loved to see horses in the flesh. I have spent many a day at the track just enjoying watching these magnificent, brave animals, and never making a bet! I miss this important part of the sport.

[cj's dad]

sorry for your disability completebill- I go to the bigger events like this past weekend @ Belmont and will go to the Maryland Million this saturday @ laurel park. Once a year at least some friends and I go to a different track and we always try to go for what is their best weekend of racing if we can- this year is Turfway Park. I enjoy it and wish I had the time to go more. I do agree that track management does have a tendency to screw things up far too often in regards to fan comfort. I know that there is a parapalegic @ Laurel Park who gets around quite well and they do go out of their way to accommodate him:ThmbUp: .
Unfortunately, all tracks are not so considerate.:ThmbDown: