My Tampa Bay Derby Numbers

[Que]

Below are my numbers for this race... for what they're worth

#50. ARISTOCAT (3-2-1-0 $55,060)
2/15/2003-GP10 1 1/16m (1012-1021-1011-1004) (979) 1007 1-2 1/4 Alw (NW1X|36,000) stalked pace, took over leaving far turn, drew clear, driving
1/11/2003-GP6 7f (956-975-na-990) (1000) 987 2-1 1/2 Alw (NW1X|34,000) chased inside, steadied entering turn, angled 3 wide, gained 2nd
11/16/2002-Aqu6 7f (1006-999-na-1000) (995) 990 1-3 1/4 Mdn (45,000) speed outside, contested pace, dug in gamely, drew clear, driving

#90. WHITE BUCK (10-2-3-1 $62,000)
2/22/2003-Tam10 1 1/16m (973-974-984-1002) (1030) 1005 1-Neck Stk (50,000) angled out 2nd turn, bid 3 wide, long drive, drifted, all out
1/18/2003-GP5 1 1/16m (970-1001-997-989) (956) 988 5-11 Alw (NW1X|34,000) hopped start, well placed, saved ground, tired
12/26/2002-Crc111 1/16m (970-978-986-989) (988) 989 2-Neck Alw (NW1X|24,000) stalked pace, 3 wide, slim lead stretch, gamely, edged
12/14/2002-Crc6 1m (937-954-969-978) (994) 979 3-5 3/4 Alw (NW1X|24,000) allowed to settle, 3 wide far turn, gained 3rd

#98. FREEDOM LANE (8-3-1-0 $45,245)
2/22/2003-Tam10 1 1/16m (969-971-983-1001) (1032) 1005 2-Neck Stk (50,000) middle move, got through, in tight, led, just missed
1/28/2003-Tam4 1 1/16m (961-989-982-997) (1016) 969 1-3 1/4 Alw (50,000|NW1X|14,600) stalked pace, bid out of 2nd turn, drifted badly, drew off
1/16/2003-Tam8 1m (944-968-984-997) (1023) 971 1-3/4 Alw (NW1X|13,500) in tight 2nd turn, angled out, up late
1/4/2003-Tam4 1 1/16m (918-924-930-928) (906) 951 6-9 1/4 Alw (13,500) fractious in gate, broke in air, clipped heels, looped, empty

NR. FAST EDDIE D (4-2-0-0 $15,424)
2/27/2003-Tam4 1 1/16m (930-940-948-964) (986) 954 1-2 Alw (14,900) never far back, bid 4 wide in tight quarters ran down leader
2/15/2003-Tam11 7f (963-981-na-988) (983) 983 1-3 1/4 Mdn (12,800) dueled, drew off, much the best
1/11/2003-Tam7 6f (941-959-na-969) (977) 967 4-4 Mdn (12,100) passed tiring rivals
12/14/2002-Crc8 6f (944-930-na-931) (922) 953 11-16 1/4 Mdn (23,000) bumped hard backstretch, done early

NR. CAJUN BEAT (4-2-0-0 $33,900)
2/15/2003-GP9 7f (993-1006-na-918) (802) 922 6-42 Grd (2|150,000) steadied chute, early foot, inside, steadied turn, faded, eased
1/26/2003-GP8 6f (991-1002-na-1009) (1008) 987 1-1 Alw (NW1X|36,000) chased pace, 3 wide, dueled stretch, edged away late
12/21/2002-Crc9 5f (987-980-na-989) (984) 979 1-1/2 Mdn (23,000) vied for lead, 3 wide, responded to challenge, prevailed, driving
6/4/2002-Del2 5f (896-950-na-946) (971) 959 7-8 1/4 Mdn (37,000) broke slowly, never posed a threat

NR. STRENGTH WITHIN (3-1-1-0 $50,800)
2/15/2003-GP9 7f (986-1009-na-999) (979) 1003 2-6 Grd (2|150,000) unhurried early, 4 wide turn, no match, up for 2nd
1/11/2003-GP5 7f (960-978-na-1001) (1022) 1004 1-1 Mdn (32,000) allowed to settle, 3 wide turn, rallied, up late, driving
11/30/2002-CD7 6f (919-950-na-992) (1059) 996 4-1 1/2 Mdn (39,700) outsprinted early,mild bid between,no late gain

NR. POPULAR GROOM (3-2-0-0 $48,600)
2/8/2003-GP9 7f (970-975-na-997) (1015) 994 1-1/2 Alw (NW1X|36,000) tracked pace, eased out, slim lead inside 1/8 pole, prevailed
8/11/2002-Sar3 7f (971-982-na-992) (999) 992 1-Head Mdn (45,000) ducked in start, bumped, inside move, came wide, prevailed
7/5/2002-Bel5 6f (993-956-na-930) (880) 959 6-7 3/4 Mdn (43,000) speed between rivals, contested pace, tired final furlong

NR. HEAR NO EVIL (11-3-4-0 $189,090)
1/18/2003-Tam10 7f (988-992-na-992) (978) 988 2-Neck Stk (50,000) stalked pace, bid 3 wide out of turn, loomed boldly, hung
1/3/2003-GP9 6f (999-986-na-978) (954) 988 7-6 3/4 Grd (3|100,000) raced midpack, angled out turn, altered course stretch
12/7/2002-Hou4 7f (970-1003-na-999) (984) 1004 4-4 1/2 Stk (275,000) reserved early, 4 wide move, flattened out
11/16/2002-Crc7 7f (1026-1021-na-996) (959) 994 2-1 Stk (S|150,000) vied for lead, edged clear, 2nd best

NR. REGION OF MERIT (4-3-0-0 $71,550)
2/15/2003-GP3 1m 70yds (1006-1016-1007-1007) (997) 1006 1-5 Alw (NW2X|38,000) stalked pace, took over into far turn, drew off, driving
1/11/2003-GP6 7f (964-981-na-993) (999) 990 1-1 1/2 Alw (NW1X|34,000) chased pace, took over nearing 1/16 pole, prevailed, driving
11/16/2002-Aqu4 7f (986-994-na-1004) (1010) 998 1-1 1/2 Mdn (45,000) came in after start, speed outside, drew clear when roused
10/13/2002-Bel3 6f (935-985-na-978) (960) 985 5-8 3/4 Mdn (45,000) outrun early, came wide for drive, no rally

[Que]

9 Region of Merit 5.20 3.00 2.40
6 Aristocat 3.00 2.80
7 Hear No Evil 5.60
Also ran: 3 - White Buck , 4 - Strength Within , 2 - Cajun Beat , 1 - Fast Eddie D , 5 - Popular Groom
Scratched horses: Freedom Lane

[justin]

I've seen your numbers quite a few times and admit to being baffled. Could you explain them or point me to a post where you have done so in the past, if you don't mind?

Thanks,
-Justin

[Que]

jm,

My pace figures are as follows, for example Region of Merit's ratings for her last race were... (1006-1016-1007-1007) (997) 1006, where 1006 is the horse's pace rating to the 1/4m mark, 1016 is the horse's pace rating from the start to the 1/2m mark, 1007 is the horse's pace rating from the start to the 3/4m mark, and 1007 is the horse's pace rating for the entire race (start-to-finish). The number in parenthesis, i.e. (997), is the horse's late speed rating--usually the last quarter mile, depending on the distance of the race. And the last number in black in bold, i.e. 1006, is the horse's relative speed rating for that particular race--relative to all other entries in that race and are computed using that race and each of the other entries follow-on races--up to three races following that particular race. Any positive or negative discrepancy between this figure and the horse's final figure (in bold green) indicates a strong or weak field in that particular race, respectively. To baseline the ratings, I originally created my ratings such that a rating of 1000 would equate to a "Thorograph" 10 or thereabouts. The value of one length varies by distance... i.e. roughly 7.5 pts for 1/4m, 3.8 pts for the 1/2m, 3.1 pts to 3/4m, and roughly 2.5 pts for the finish (but of course, this number depends on the distance of the race). For example, I gave Region of Merit a final rating of 1007 in her last race, vice a rating of 1004 for Aristocrat; therefore based on this most recent race, my figures had Region of Merit roughly one length better than Aristocrat.

Also, the rankings are based on races ran a 1 1/16 miles or more (on the dirt), and are weighted based on the results of all Grade One races raced at those distances in the last three years. NR means the horse was not rated because their last race was less than 1 1/16m or on the turf. For example, last week three of the four major stakes winners were all not rated (NR) becuse their most recent race didn't meet the above conditions.

I hope this explaination clears the mud... Que.

[justin]

Thanks for taking the time to explain things, much appreciated!