Betting 2 horses to win ?

[big frank]

How many players here dutch ? Do you only play when you feel there is a bad favorite ? thanks

[Partsnut]

Hi Frank,

This is a subjective and controversial topic.
Lot's of different opinions.

My personal preference is one horse to win.
I try to be selective and look for "value opportunities" and races I feel are playable.

There are many that have to play Two because
The run-outs are less frequent and is easier to endure and keep them (mentally) in the game.
However, protracted losing streak can occur either way betting 1 or 2 horses.

Try 200 races using one horse and then try 200 races using two horses
and see what you feel works for you. I suggest you try this without
putting money up and if you have the time or the patience to do this.
A 20 cycle as prescribed by some and in my opinion, is not a true test.

John Fitzgerald published a study on this in one of his books that he did at Mohawk Raceway.
The end result was that the 2 horse bettors had a diminished ROI of 25% less as opposed to the 1 horse bettors.

[classhandicapper]

I do it all the time. I even play 3 horses in a race sometimes. Typically I dutch when I don't like the favorite at all, but the complexities of the race are outside my range and I don't have a strong opinion on where the value is.

[cj's dad]

How many players here dutch ? Do you only play when you feel there is a bad favorite ? thanks

I do this only when I have 2 that I like and both are 8/1 +,
and then additionally, I box both in an exacta and put both 2nd and 3rd in a tri. under all. Recently this tri strategy netted a payout of +$3k. The bet total was win= $20, exacta = $10 and tri = $32. I only do this under the listed odds and only if I dislike the favotite. Be rigid in your guidelines.

[dav4463]

It depends on the race. What if you like two horses and one is 28-1 and the other is 47-1?

Wouldn't it make sense to bet both to win or even both win and place?

[SMOO]

To paraphrase an old football term about starting QBs:

If you have two, you have none.

[njcurveball]

How many players here dutch ? Do you only play when you feel there is a bad favorite ? thanks

Many successful horseplayers who I have met use multiple spot plays. Let's say they have a trainer angle on a first time starter and also a good second time starter angle as well. The two horses meet in the same race. Most do not even flinch and bet them exactly the same as if they were in separate races.

If there is even three or four, they do the same. As for the bad favorite, I find with spot plays you miss a lot of nice price horses if you concentrate on the favorite.

Now if you are "cold handicapping" each race, it is a different mindset trying to make a 2 horse bet. I use to see guys read some Sartin and then walk to the window and bet $3 on a 3-2 shot and $2 on a 5-2 shot. Either one "guaranteed" them a win, right? ;)

Multiple horse betting is no different from exotics where people seem content to lose 5 bets every race (boxing 3 horses).

My favorite people at the track are the ones that say "better a short price than a long face" or "it beats tearing it up". Wish we had lots more of them! :ThmbUp:

[barn32]

Multiple horse betting is no different from exotics where people seem content to lose 5 bets every race (boxing 3 horses).

Exactly right and something many people seem to overlook.

[Charlie D]

Many successful horseplayers who I have met use multiple spot plays


:ThmbUp:

[ur_next_ex]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3001/2866996413_33789209ff.jpg

[cnollfan]

I will bet two horses to win in a race if they are both good prices and I like them both, especially if I don't like the favorite and/or the second favorite. If I can throw out one of the two chalks I may box my two longshots with the remaining chalk in the exacta and trifecta.

I'm sort of an angle player -- if I have two angles picking two different horses in a race and they are both prices I'm more inclined to bet both rather than fuss over which one is better.

[open_question]

Some of the comments in this thread seems to conflate two separate wagering strategies: betting on more than one horse to win a race and dutching. I don't see those two things as the same.

Obviously, some things to consider when thinking about betting more than one horse to win are (1) it only works if the bettor's chosen horses go off at long enough odds to make multiple win wagers profitable, and (2) the bettor must have right opinions about longshots often enough to make multiple win wagers profitable.

Dutching, at least the way it has been explained to me, complicates those things. That's because dutching involves wagering enough on each horse to reach a certain sum. For instance, let's say a bettor likes two horses to win, the first on the toteboard at 4-1 and the second at 9-1, and let's say the bettor is aiming to clear around $100. In such a case, the dutching bettor would put $30 on horse #1 and $15 on horse #2. If either horse wins, the bettor profits $105 [($10*15)-$45 or ($20*7.5)-$45].

So someone who wants to dutch must factor in a few additional considerations when placing a multiple win wager: (3) the sum being aimed at must be high enough to make multiple win wagers profitable, (4) the bettor should have access to a live toteboard, have a ready command of math, and be able quickly to translate toteboard odds into win wagering amounts that will result in the desired goal, and (5) in order to match the wagers to the post-time odds, the bettor must be situated just right--whether at the track or somewhere else--and time the wagers correctly, getting them in as close to the break as possible without getting shut out.

Those last three things add a lot of extra risk and work to handicapping, which is hard enough by itself. Plus, to my way of thinking, dutching is another one of those sucker theories that ends up trapping bettors in a negative sum game akin to martingaling. After all, if the bettor loses more than the desired goal, the goal has to be raised along with wagers to reach it, and so on and so on until the wagers reduce odds, payouts become insufficient to break even, and the bankroll is bankrupt. So no, I don't dutch.

However, as I said earlier, I think dutching is different from simply betting more than one horse to win a race. As long as I'm selective when placing a multiple win wager, my picks are sent off at decent odds, and I'm right often enough to be profitable, then yes, I like betting more than one horse to win. I especially get a kick out of doing this in stakes races. Give me a competitive race filled with fast, consistent, well-intended horses, and I start looking for the most likely non-favorites. But no dutching for me. Flat-betting according to a disciplined plan is the way I choose.

[Charlie D]

All Betfair trading software i have seen has a Dutching Facility which updates live


I'm sure places like PTC etc could provide a similar function for it's customers thus cutting out the need for a Math degree