Odds Line - What price above your line do you play ?

[big frank]

If you have a horse 4-1 , at what odds would you invest ? is 9/2 ok ,or do you need 5 or 6 -1 ? if you gave a horse 9/5 would you play at 2-1 or do you n higher odds ? thanks for your help.

[Dave Schwartz]

4/1

[kitts]

Most of the time I bet my phonebet account and use the Morning Line. Since the ML is frequently wrong, I require double. Otherwise, I want a 30% edge.

[oddsmaven]

Others can answer better than me on where to draw the line, but I would actually be somewhat concerned if your pick was "way" higher than the value you determined...if that happens you should probably take a closer look to see if you missed something or misjudged the class...I'm not saying to let the tote board scare you off a big win, but more just to see if there are clues within the odds that will point out something you overlooked and should have considered...also check for reasons that other horses are getting bet, causing your odds to rise and determine if they are frivolous reasons or if you missed something and need to factor it in and adjust your values...I'd feel better trying to beat them if they were getting overbet as I expected beforehand as opposed to being surprised by the betting.

[bettheoverlay]

I bet any of my top 4 odds line horses if they are going off at 6/1 or better at 1 min to post. I have never had success betting to win on anything less than 6/1, no matter what my odds line says. Usually my 4th horse is around 8/1 on my odds line, but if it is 6/1 at 1m it often goes up in the final odds.

Saturday I threw out a horse at Kentucky Downs at 66/1 even though my odds line had him at 7/1. No way he could win, I thought , even though he had a huge early speed advantage according to my numbers. Course he easily wired the field.

[Charlie D]

If you have a horse 4-1 , at what odds would you invest ?


4-1 or above



if you gave a horse 9/5.


9/5 or above

[Robert Fischer]

4-1 = 5 or 6 -1 (5.5-1)

9/5 = about 3-1 (2.65)

[Partsnut]

I personally first take in to account which of my contenders fits the race profile at hand and which running styles are suited for this particular race.
If the horse is an early type I look for 5/2 or better. If the horse has a lone running style or is a presser, I look for 4-1 or better. I look for 5-1 or better if the horse is a presser/closer.
The odds guidelines that I've listed were formulated by impact values and were tested by Randy Giles. These recommended odds line comes from his book "Extreme Handicapping" and for me this is the Gospel. I use his recommended way of betting and the rules for handicapping within his book religiously. I am selective and bet one horse for win only. I also use the BRIS data files, The BRIS PP Generator and his software.

[barn32]

If you have a horse 4-1 , at what odds would you invest ? is 9/2 ok ,or do you need 5 or 6 -1 ? if you gave a horse 9/5 would you play at 2-1 or do you n higher odds ? thanks for your help.Barry Meadows in his book, "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" recommends a 50% overlay on all of your bets--including exactas, etc.

So a 4-1 shot on your line would require 6-1. A 9-5 would require 2.7 or 3-1.

He also suggests that anything over 6-1 on your line should be relegated to non-contender status.

One good thing about the 50% overlay rule is that you won't get hurt as much by betdowns after the bell. If a horse gets bet down, you should still end up with some sort of positive expectation because of your built in 50% overlay.

Here is another way of doing it. Let's say a horse is 4-1 on the tote board. If you keep good records, you can bet a 4-1 tote board horse if you're successful with 4-1 shots 30% of the time. In other words, 4-1 translates to 20%. So you need a 50% greater hit rate to use the tote board odds.

If your records show that 4-1s that you bet come in around 30% of the time then you can bet the 4-1 shot.

[cj]

He also suggests that anything over 6-1 on your line should be relegated to non-contender status.

I've always found this theory works well. I use field size as the limit, so any horse I give a line greater than his natural chances is a toss. In a 10 horse field, anyone at 10 to 1 or greater is out.

I just don't think anyone can differentiate accurately enough at the higher odds ranges. I KNOW that I can't.

[Bill Cullen]

I like your thinking: I've always used field size as a intuitive boundry line between "contenders" and longshots."

Best,

Bill C

[barn32]

I just don't think anyone can differentiate accurately enough at the higher odds ranges. I KNOW that I can't.Yes, that's the point exactly. As an example, if you are making horses 20-1 on your own personal line and betting them at 30-1, that is highly speculative. Who can make such differentiations?

Meadow's point, and I think it's a good one, is that this holds true all the way down to around 6-1. 6-1 equates to about 14%. Any horse that you consider to be a contender should have more than a 14% chance to win.

[DeanT]

How does anyone bet an odds line sans fixed odds like Betfair, anyway?

Bet a 6-5 shot with ten seconds to post to place with 29% of the place pool and it becomes 46% two minutes later. Bet a 6-1 shot he becomes 7-2 two minutes later. Betting like this has become one big mess. Odds lines are going the way of the do-do bird, imo.

[proximity]

Yes, that's the point exactly. As an example, if you are making horses 20-1 on your own personal line and betting them at 30-1, that is highly speculative. Who can make such differentiations?


but then of course mr meadow bets exactas at 30-1 that he makes 20-1? i guess the only rationale for this would be that the potential for error would be spread between two horses?

[RichieP]

I've been using Jim Lehane's "Valuation" chapter from his book Calibration Handicapping. His simple explanation on how to create your own value lines is the best I have seen.

If I make a horse 4/1 and he is that I pull the trigger. I do not win bet below 5/2 odds.

[barn32]

I've been using Jim Lehane's "Valuation" chapter from his book Calibration Handicapping. His simple explanation on how to create your own value lines is the best I have seen.

Mark Cramer also wrote an excellent book about valuation called, "The Odds on Your Side. (http://www.amazon.com/Odds-Your-Side-Racetrack-Investing/dp/096141684X)"

I got this book on an intra-library loan a few years back, and I highly recommend it.


Here's a brief review from Amazon.

Mark Cramer, The Odds on Your Side (Cynthia Publishing, 1990)

Widely regarded as the definitive book on setting an odds line in your Thoroughbred handicapping, and for good reason. Cramer, who's authored a number of excellent handicapping tomes, spends a couple of hundred pages on the concept of value and how to achieve it. His greatest strength is his simple asserion, backed up with a number of examples, that there is no mechanical formula to be used; it's different for every race. He illustrates handicapping as art, rather than the handicapping-as-science approach used by many other books. Definitely a work that belongs in the bookshelf of every horseplayer, casual or serious. **** 1/2