Kent D. finally rides BB the way he should be ridden....

[PaceAdvantage]

I was shocked when KD did not apply the brakes when that other horse was dogging BB into the first bend and down the stretch the first time.

I think BB was surprised as well, because you could see BB throw his head a bit a little before the first turn, AS IF Big Brown were saying "Hey, are you going to do it AGAIN? There's a horse to the outside of us...it's time for you to choke me back!"

KD finally listened to Dutrow's instructions, and he runs a nice race....

[cj]

If I knew Kent would ride him that way I may not have dismissed him so easily. Pretty impressive performance.

[JustRalph]

He looks like he might improve again. That would be something...

I like the way KD didn't panic in the stretch. didn't even ask............

[juanepstein]

if thats how BB should be ridden then hes a bet against next out. he almost got beat by grade 2,3 winners that werent even a part of the pace.

shakis is 8 yrs old and bravo had to make up a ton of ground and went wide while brushing up against the other early pace horse in the stretch. proudinsky only lost by a neck. dude! come on proudinsky.

put BB in a turf race with top grade 2 horses that will be a part of the early pace and off the pace and BB is dust.

[Tom]

I thought he looked good, and I thought Kent was taken off.:lol:
But Monmouth...I haven't looked lately, but doesn't it favor early speed on turf? Maybe not. But I don't think that race today will win the BC on Slow Ride, Free Ride, or whatever that rug they laid down at SA.

[bigmack]

Collmus can get aflutter after all.

dMBmWvgXH0U

[PaceAdvantage]

if thats how BB should be ridden then hes a bet against next out.That bandwagon left the station a long time ago....

[cj's dad]

In case you did not notice, this was a race against against 3+ year olds and up and seasoned as well. He did quite well, and for you to say he is a bet against is weak to say the least. Gate to wire my friend which I would never have imagined; give credit where it is due.

if thats how BB should be ridden then hes a bet against next out. he almost got beat by grade 2,3 winners that werent even a part of the pace.

shakis is 8 yrs old and bravo had to make up a ton of ground and went wide while brushing up against the other early pace horse in the stretch. proudinsky only lost by a neck. dude! come on proudinsky.

put BB in a turf race with top grade 2 horses that will be a part of the early pace and off the pace and BB is dust.

[menifee]

In case you did not notice, this was a race against against 3+ year olds and up and seasoned as well. He did quite well, and for you to say he is a bet against is weak to say the least. Gate to wire my friend which I would never have imagined; give credit where it is due.

It was a very nice performance. He did quite well.

That being said, he is a big bet against next time out which will be in the BC Classic. If Curlin does not run, he will be the favorite. He will probably be 3-1. I would not have bet BB today and I would not bet him then at that price. Not over an unknown surface, where he will be running against far better older horses than he met today.

[cj's dad]

Apparently, this guy loves the turf and as such is a good play with the artrificial surface in the BC- May be a good race to watch.

[peakpros]

I thought he looked good, and I thought Kent was taken off.:lol:
But Monmouth...I haven't looked lately, but doesn't it favor early speed on turf? Maybe not. But I don't think that race today will win the BC on Slow Ride, Free Ride, or whatever that rug they laid down at SA.


too many days of rain lately to answer your question...but for the most part mth turf has favored speed this meet...

according to a jock I spoke with later that rode in the race...he felt the turf was a slightly softer than usually for a firm rating but not wet underneath...

[peakpros]

if thats how BB should be ridden then hes a bet against next out. he almost got beat by grade 2,3 winners that werent even a part of the pace.

shakis is 8 yrs old and bravo had to make up a ton of ground and went wide while brushing up against the other early pace horse in the stretch. proudinsky only lost by a neck. dude! come on proudinsky.

put BB in a turf race with top grade 2 horses that will be a part of the early pace and off the pace and BB is dust.


I feel this was a measure win by KD.....he knew what he had.....

[DeanT]

I can't believe we are still talking about this nonsense. Last time he rides "terribly", and he wins by a head. This time he "rides him like he is supposed to be ridden" and he wins by a head. Maybe, just maybe he was good enough in both races, based on his fitness, and myriad factors that make racing, to win each race by a head.

Nah, I guess that would be too radical.

PS: If he lost by a head there would be a topic calling him an idiot for going too fast.

[lamboguy]

big brown ran huge today. as game as that horse was today, i would think he would have won even if mr. pace was on his back.

[JustRalph]

can anybody dig into a database and tell us how the offspring of Boundary do on the ground up fan belts?

[PaceAdvantage]

Last time he rides "terribly", and he wins by a head.Actually, last time (Haskell) he won by 1 1/2 lengths...for some reason, people seem to think the Haskell was some sort of photo finish....

Yeah, he rode him poorly in the Haskell, in my opinion. You saw in the Monmouth Stakes a bit of the "old" Big Brown...the horse that can run fast early and finish up strongly when given his head, and not wrangled back like in the Haskell, where he had to struggle late to finally get going, and the Belmont which turned into a complete disaster.

[JBmadera]

I thought he looked good, and I thought Kent was taken off.:lol:
But Monmouth...I haven't looked lately, but doesn't it favor early speed on turf? Maybe not. But I don't think that race today will win the BC on Slow Ride, Free Ride, or whatever that rug they laid down at SA.

based on that stats that I use, and there is a very small sample, almost every winner at 9f T went wtw. so I would say that there is a huge early speed bias but really the sample is way too small.

[lamboguy]

i didn't bet this race, and never bet on 3yo's facing older the first time. the field had accomplished turf horses in it, graded stakes winners, he got challenged by a good horses and responded. that to me is a great horse. to put things in perspective, curlin got beat to a weaker field in the man of war.

the people that owned and trained big brown were under alot of pressure, mentally, and financial, and they came thru with flying colors yesterday.

[RichieP]

If I knew Kent would ride him that way I may not have dismissed him so easily. Pretty impressive performance.

Morning Cj
Would you be willing to share your numbers on Curlin's turf debut race and the BB race yesterday?

Are the 2 still very far apart ability wise from your look at things?
Thanks

[cj]

I'm giving Big Brown a 109 pace, 103 speed for his effort yesterday. Obviously the 109-106 are the race figures as well.

For Curlin, the race was a 123-108 and his numbers were 110-106.

On dirt I would still give Curlin a big edge, but on turf, they look very close. I'd give Curlin a slight edge since he had some trouble and was probably going a little farther than he prefers.

On synthetic, neither one of them will win in my opinion.

[windstone]

You know, i am not a huge fan of KD, for the most part can pass on durtow, and can't stand to see that p.o.s. of the owners group, but looking at bb the horse i kinda feel sorry for him with all of the bad press he has received because of these three. being really green at this does he have a chance to beat out curlin for horse of the year or whatever they call that award???

[RichieP]

I'm giving Big Brown a 109 pace, 103 speed for his effort yesterday. Obviously the 109-106 are the race figures as well.

For Curlin, the race was a 123-108 and his numbers were 110-106.

On dirt I would still give Curlin a big edge, but on turf, they look very close. I'd give Curlin a slight edge since he had some trouble and was probably going a little farther than he prefers.

On synthetic, neither one of them will win in my opinion.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: Thanks Cj! You the man!

[Jeff P]

From my calendar year 2007 database... the offspring of Boundary on ground up pieces of rubber & wax...

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied: SIRE: BOUNDARY-

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Complete_History_A.txt


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 51.20 76.90 70.60
Bet -104.00 -104.00 -104.00
Gain -52.80 -27.10 -33.40

Wins 4 11 15
Plays 52 52 52
PCT .0769 .2115 .2885

ROI 0.4923 0.7394 0.6788
Avg Mut 12.80 6.99 4.71


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -5.60 12.00 0.5333 1 6 .1667 2.1667
2 -9.40 20.00 0.5300 1 10 .1000 1.3000
3 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
4 5.80 10.00 1.5800 1 5 .2000 2.6000
5 6.40 12.00 1.5333 1 6 .1667 2.1667
6 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
7 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000
8 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
9 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
10 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
11 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
12 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
13+ -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000




as opposed to Turf:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied: SIRE: BOUNDARY-

Turf (All*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Complete_History_N.txt


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 131.00 164.90 165.80
Bet -192.00 -192.00 -192.00
Gain -61.00 -27.10 -26.20

Wins 12 30 41
Plays 96 96 96
PCT .1250 .3125 .4271

ROI 0.6823 0.8589 0.8635
Avg Mut 10.92 5.50 4.04


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -6.60 22.00 0.7000 3 11 .2727 2.1818
2 8.80 22.00 1.4000 4 11 .3636 2.9091
3 0.60 32.00 1.0188 3 16 .1875 1.5000
4 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
5 -5.20 26.00 0.8000 1 13 .0769 0.6154
6 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000
7 15.40 16.00 1.9625 1 8 .1250 1.0000
8 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
9 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000
10 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
11 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
12+ -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000


-jp

.

[Jeff P]

What I have for calendar year 2007... Boundary offspring on natural dirt...

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied: SIRE: BOUNDARY-

Dirt (All*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Complete_History_N.txt


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 329.40 372.80 312.90
Bet -332.00 -332.00 -332.00
Gain -2.60 40.80 -19.10

Wins 30 61 79
Plays 166 166 166
PCT .1807 .3675 .4759

ROI 0.9922 1.1229 0.9425
Avg Mut 10.98 6.11 3.96


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -17.50 64.00 0.7266 10 32 .3125 1.7292
2 15.70 50.00 1.3140 8 25 .3200 1.7707
3 -1.40 40.00 0.9650 4 20 .2000 1.1067
4 32.00 30.00 2.0667 5 15 .3333 1.8444
5 -10.40 50.00 0.7920 2 25 .0800 0.4427
6 45.00 32.00 2.4063 1 16 .0625 0.3458
7 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
8 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
9 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
10 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
11 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000

If he goes in the BC Classic it should be interesting...

-jp

.

[cj]

How do his offspring do on turf? Usually, a horse like Big Brown that runs on turf runs well on synthetics. Not always of course...

[joanied]

I was shocked when KD did not apply the brakes when that other horse was dogging BB into the first bend and down the stretch the first time.

I think BB was surprised as well, because you could see BB throw his head a bit a little before the first turn, AS IF Big Brown were saying "Hey, are you going to do it AGAIN? There's a horse to the outside of us...it's time for you to choke me back!"

KD finally listened to Dutrow's instructions, and he runs a nice race....

Exactly:ThmbUp: ....I mentioned in another post that I thought Kent D & BB finally came to some sort of 'agreement' during the race yesterday...I picked up on that tiny head toss also...I do beleive BB was waiting for Kent to strangle him down...horses never forget, but they do forgive, and IMHO...BB may very well have forgiven Kent yesterday for the mistakes he's made... Kent didn't need to urge him much when Proudinsky came to them because Kent knew that BB wasn't going to let that other horse go by him...

BIG :1: BROWN....and at long last...KENT D :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

Great Stuff Jeff!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

From my calendar year 2007 database... the offspring of Boundary on ground up pieces of rubber & wax...

Jeff, that first box of stats (the one that is supposed to be artificial surfaces) reads "Surface: (ALL*)"

Is that the way it's supposed to read, or did it not filter by AWS?

[Jeff P]

Mike,

It wouldn't be apparent unless you're familiar with JCapper. But it's all in the filename.

The characters "_A" in the filename designate the file as containing data for races run on artificial surfaces only.

In this case I simply ran all starters matching sire name Boundary found in the file named:

C:\2007\pl_Complete_History_A.txt

I hope that makes sense.


-jp

.