Yeah BB!!!

[jognlope]

Ken changed his style a bit right? BB looked like he was not restrained at all from what my bad eyes could see.

WIRE TO WIRE!!!

[098poi]

I must say I was very impressed as they were coming down the stretch. I don't know the words exactly but BB's body language was almost like he spread his wings and showed his feathers when challenged. Wow!

[HEY DUDE]

He was like a monster out there today. Congrats to him.

[Irish Boy]

Boy, pretty quiet thread. You can almost hear an echo.

[Charlie D]

I was more impressed by Music Note

[DeanT]

Fantastic race for him. Looked like the old BB to me. KD is a class rider. He knew he had that race won and barely asked him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Boy, pretty quiet thread. You can almost hear an echo.Well, that's what happens when most folks were saying that not only would he never run again after the Belmont (win or lose), but after his debacle in the Belmont, most were saying he would never win again....

He did what he had to do to keep Horse of the Year alive.

If he wins the BC Classic (note I did say if), that will lock up Horse of the Year, no matter what Curlin does in the JCGC.

There is no way in the world that the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Haskell, BC Classic winner does NOT get Horse of the Year....is there?

[cj]

So much for 46s silly theory the horse couldn't run inside.

[cj]

I was more impressed by Music Note

Her race was nothing but a workout against a couple pacers. What impressed you so much?

[Charlie D]

the WOW factor CJ ~ looks impressive, but no substance to it


a bit like BB's race, but that was not as visually impressive

[juanepstein]

keep big brown on the dirt. he will get crushed running against real turf runners.

[Ron]

Will BB run for Horse of the Year without an appearance fee?

[OTM Al]

Hey PA, I would say yes there is. If Curlin runs in and wins the JCGC and the Japan Cup Dirt, he will still be more deserving of the win. BB would have 5 Grade 1 wins as would Curlin. However Curlin would have done his with 3 overseas victories plus a placing in a Gr1 turf race while smashing the all time money "record". 4 of BB's Gr1 wins were 3yo races also against a group that most seem to find suspect.

Not to take away from BB however. I think he did establish that he is a good turf horse today. It struck me how much he had the look of a turfer before the race today. However, before we go head over heels in praise of his ability on the green, we should temper that by the fact that he has proven that he is of US Gr2 quality/European Group 3 quality by how he performed today. that's pretty good, but he's going to have to step his game up another notch if he makes it to his next. And BTW, I still think he was a bet against in all slots despite the outcome.

[PaceAdvantage]

And BTW, I still think he was a bet against in all slots despite the outcome.I agree...the price on BB was INSANE in my opinion...but then again, there didn't appear to be any value in Proudinsky either....Shakis was a decent price, but word was he didn't like softer ground....

I didn't bet the race....

[Charlie D]

keep big brown on the dirt. he will get crushed running against real turf runners.


I wouldn't say he'd get crushed, but i'll say those he looked so impressive against today are nowhere near Duke Of Marmalade, HenrytheNavigator, New Approach, Zarakava, Soldier of Fortune ability

[banacek]

I was so happy to see him to go to the lead, no more of this pull him to the outside crap when he wanted to run!

[Charlie D]

I hope they all turn up to BC and i hope Jesse says if their in, Curlin's in


Be a cracking race


Only trouble is, if that happens, we may not see BC run on Dirt again

[juanepstein]

I wouldn't say he'd get crushed, but i'll say those he looked so impressive against today are nowhere near Duke Of Marmalade, HenrytheNavigator, New Approach, Zarakava, Soldier of Fortune ability

if he goes against a full field grade 1 turf runners that are a part of the early pace and off the pace it aint gonna be pretty for him.

[magwell]

He wouldnt let a couple of nice horses pass him down the lane, looks like they could have gone around again with same result. [I still think he bled in the Belmont] :)

[Irish Boy]

I wouldn't say he'd get crushed, but i'll say those he looked so impressive against today are nowhere near Duke Of Marmalade, HenrytheNavigator, New Approach, Zarakava, Soldier of Fortune ability

I don't think any horse in the world is at Duke of Marmalade's ability. Period, full stop.

[jonnielu]

Boy, pretty quiet thread. You can almost hear an echo.

It is sad, really, to contemplate the notion that there are so many that choose to bet their money on horses, when they couldn't recognize a good one if it ran over them on the way to the win.

jdl

[Pace Cap'n]

I wouldn't say he'd get crushed, but i'll say those he looked so impressive against today are nowhere near Duke Of Marmalade, HenrytheNavigator, New Approach, Zarakava, Soldier of Fortune ability

Well, here he is ranked ahead of or equal to all those horses you mention except for Duke Of Marmalade...

www.horseracingintfed.com/ (http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/2008Rankings/9_7_08_WLH_PressRelease.asp)


Rank

Horse

Rating

Trained

1 CURLIN (USA) 130 USA


2 DUKE OF MARMALADE (IRE) 127 IRE


3 BIG BROWN (USA) 126 USA


3 MONTMARTRE (FR) 126 FR

3 NEW APPROACH (IRE) 126 IRE


3 PAPAL BULL (GB) 126 GB


7 TARTAN BEARER (IRE) 125



8 HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (USA) 124



8 TAMAYUZ (GB) 124



8 YOUMZAIN (IRE) 124 GB


ZARKAVA (IRE)124 FR

[cj]

He was 3 to 5...I couldn't care less about being wrong about those types. I wouldn't exactly call this win impressive either. For the record, I passed the race as I didn't see any horse worth bet at the prices offered.

[FlyinLate]

I was more impressed by Music Note

Elaborate please. She ran against a bunch of nobodies. Big Brown faced older horses for the first time, and a pretty damn classy bunch at that.

[cj]

Elaborate please. She ran against a bunch of nobodies. Big Brown faced older horses for the first time, and a pretty damn classy bunch at that.

Other than Shakis, who seems to run much better at Saratoga, the field didn't turn out to be much. I was really hoping Red Rocks would show up.

[Tom]

It is sad, really, to contemplate the notion that there are so many that choose to bet their money on horses, when they couldn't recognize a good one if it ran over them on the way to the win.

jdl

There was a seminar off track today - for $5, you got a cup of coffee, a bearclaw, and Big Brown. The value of the coffee and pastry was better than BB.:lol:

[Charlie D]

Flyinlate

Both horses were visually impressive, Music Note more so, however, the horses they both beat ain't much as CJ states


We didn't learn anything that we didn't already know about either horse


Pace Cap'n

Yep and Timeform have it like this

http://www.timeform.com/display_articles.asp?page=Global_Rankings.asp


RPR's are probably different to both

[jognlope]

Was hoping for Hamsa, but Music Note really did it so effortlessly.

[Charlie D]

It is sad, really, to contemplate the notion that there are so many that choose to bet their money on horses, when they couldn't recognize a good one if it ran over them on the way to the win.

jdl


What's sad, is someone thinking they are the only person who knows one end of a horse from another

[jonnielu]

What's sad, is someone thinking they are the only person who knows one end of a horse from another

Of course not, it is not fair to know any more or any better then the other fellow. If a guy is smoking while loading ammunition, you should light up with him, so that he can be assured that he is at the top of the class with everyone else. Anything else could damage one's tender self-esteem.

It has become obvious to me from reading this board, what a no-good, one-time lucky bum Big Brown is.

jdl

[Charlie D]

If Fred, Harry, Bill, Johnnie etc think BB is a no good bum then do one of two things

Let em and take advantage of it in the market or try to change their mind with reasonable argument


Posting this

It is sad, really, to contemplate the notion that there are so many that choose to bet their money on horses, when they couldn't recognize a good one if it ran over them on the way to the win



Does nothing but make you look an ass

[classhandicapper]

I thought it was a perfect prep race for him.

He was used a little early, but despite that he held off some decent horses even though they collared him early. IMO he wasn't even fully extended during a last 1/8th that was run in reasonable time.

Going out to CA to race 10F on synthetic against better horses won't be a walk in the park, but based on where everyone thought he was after the Belmont, it's reasonable to say that he's in a better position than most would have guessed.

[Pace Cap'n]

Other than Shakis, who seems to run much better at Saratoga, the field didn't turn out to be much. I was really hoping Red Rocks would show up.

It's seems like most every field he faces doesn't turn out to be much. Hmmm...

[Charlie D]

It's seems like most every field he faces doesn't turn out to be much. Hmmm...

C'mon Pace Cap'n


Even hardened BB fans have to admit the horses BB is beating ain't near his ability

[Tom]

Kent didn't think much of the Belmont field, either.

[turfnsport]

It has become obvious to me from reading this board, what a no-good, one-time lucky bum Big Brown is.

jdl

It looked to me more like a board full of astute handicappers understanding what an underlay looks like.

[WinterTriangle]

It's seems like most every field he faces doesn't turn out to be much. Hmmm...

;)

Yup, Big Brown "can't win." The plethora of naysayers said first he won running against young non-proven horses, then he can only run on dirt, then he runs on turf but it was against unprovens, now it's older proven horses on turf, and that doesn't seem to garner him any respect either.

There should be a contest, where every racing fan in the world submits a list of horses they want Big Brown to run against that would "satisfy" them. :D

[cj]

;)

Yup, Big Brown "can't win." The plethora of naysayers said first he won running against young non-proven horses, then he can only run on dirt, then he runs on turf but it was against unprovens, now it's older proven horses on turf, and that doesn't seem to garner him any respect either.

There should be a contest, where every racing fan in the world submits a list of horses they want Big Brown to run against that would "satisfy" them. :D

Curlin on dirt, Red Rocks on turf. That should take care of it.

[ghostyapper]

You gotta love BB Mania. The horse wins a non graded stakes by a neck against a horse that finished out of the money in his last 2 and its the performance of the year.

[Charlie D]

Woodward 2nd and 3rd would be fair opponents i reckon

[asH]

Haters....:lol:

[jfb]

Kent didn't think much of the Belmont field, either.

LOL, the picture is very funny. Though, imho Big Brown is showing a lot of grit I cracked up looking at the photo.

[PaceAdvantage]

The horse wins a non graded stakes by a neck against a horse that finished out of the money in his last 2 and its the performance of the year.Hmmmm, that's not what was being said prior to the gates opening on Saturday. I heard nothing but "Well, this is a very tough field of seasoned, older turf runners, blah blah blah blah blah...."

[cmoore]

I thought it was a gutsy race by Big Brown. He took a commanding lead and ran pretty fast fractions for a 1 1/8 on the turf....46.4...1:11.1. It looked like the closers were going to get by. But BB dug down and held them off. How many lengths would it of taken to win by to give him props. His form looks to be going upward. His next race will be even better.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

You gotta love BB Mania. The horse wins a non graded stakes by a neck against a horse that finished out of the money in his last 2 and its the performance of the year.

It was labeled an ungraded race but I'd say it was a graded stakes-quality field. The 2nd and 3rd place horses are both multiple GSW's and in good form. I'm pretty eager for Proudinsky to run back.

[Humph]

I don't think any horse in the world is at Duke of Marmalade's ability. Period, full stop.

Not so sure, myself . The O'Brien stable - never slow in talking their horses up - claim that DOM is a very different horse this year, and the 1s next to his name read impressively , but I wonder what exactly he's been beating recently . For what it's worth , I don't think he's faced anywhere near the same level of competition this year as he did last from the likes of Dylan Thomas and Authorized .

[jonnielu]

I thought it was a gutsy race by Big Brown. He took a commanding lead and ran pretty fast fractions for a 1 1/8 on the turf....46.4...1:11.1. It looked like the closers were going to get by. But BB dug down and held them off. How many lengths would it of taken to win by to give him props. His form looks to be going upward. His next race will be even better.

I can't help it, he lost one race, and other then that he has done many things that no other horse has done for many years. Unbettable in his last four races because he is so much better then the opposition, and there has been something wrong with his form.

Dig back through 30 years of racing forms and find another record that matches, try the other horse that won the Derby from the 20 gate, that was just a year or two ago right?

jdl

[jonnielu]

If Fred, Harry, Bill, Johnnie etc think BB is a no good bum then do one of two things

Let em and take advantage of it in the market or try to change their mind with reasonable argument


Posting this




Does nothing but make you look an ass

I've always thought it of great importance... what ignorant people think.

jdl

[ghostyapper]

Hmmmm, that's not what was being said prior to the gates opening on Saturday. I heard nothing but "Well, this is a very tough field of seasoned, older turf runners, blah blah blah blah blah...."

Is that all you heard? I heard that BB's connections were ducking all the real competition by selecting a turf race at monmouth for his BC prep. If you're opinion is that BB is a great horse and as good or better than Curlin, saturdays results did nothing to help that opinion.

[asH]

This has to be the first horse in triple crown jewel history to win two legs of the triple crown races, only to have

a) the whole crop of 3 year olds condemned

b) the historic relevance of the institution of triple crown races insulted

c) (now) older horses he happens to beat condemned

in effort to deconstruct his efforts.



These efforts are led by ‘highly regarded’ persons of influence…

[Charlie D]

Not so sure, myself . The O'Brien stable - never slow in talking their horses up - claim that DOM is a very different horse this year, and the 1s next to his name read impressively , but I wonder what exactly he's been beating recently . For what it's worth , I don't think he's faced anywhere near the same level of competition this year as he did last from the likes of Dylan Thomas and Authorized .



Thats fair and correct coment Humph


DoM, like BB is a good horse, but as yet, niether have proven themselves to be TOP Class yet

[cj]

Thats fair and correct coment Humph


DoM, like BB is a good horse, but as yet, niether have proven themselves to be TOP Class yet imo

Hasn't Duke won five G1s against the best in Europe, not 3yos, from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles?

[The Hawk]

Not for anything:

While it's fair to knock the 3yo crop that Big Brown is beating, and knowing full well his Beyers are light compared to Curlin, who exactly is Curlin beating?

[asH]

isnt this is the part in the movie where the bad guys get someone from out of town to try to clean up the mess and restore order?:lol:

[Charlie D]

Hasn't Duke won five G1s against the best in Europe, not 3yos, from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles?

Not really CJ, he faced decent Euro horses, but they are a little below the ability of Zarakava, Soldier of Fortune, Henrythenavigator, Tamayuz imo

[cj]

Is he pointing towards the Arc?

[Charlie D]

Not for anything:

While it's fair to knock the 3yo crop that Big Brown is beating, and knowing full well his Beyers are light compared to Curlin, who exactly is Curlin beating?



Not much The Hawk with the possible exception of Pass the Point

[Charlie D]

Is he pointing towards the Arc?


He's entered CJ, but i don't think running plans have been comfirmed yet

[cj]

Not much The Hawk with the possible exception of Pass the Point

He beat that SoCal horse, who has turned out to be very good, in Dubai. The name escapes me right now. Well Armed maybe?

[asH]

Not for anything:

While it's fair to knock the 3yo crop that Big Brown is beating, and knowing full well his Beyers are light compared to Curlin, who exactly is Curlin beating?


BINGO.......are the intentions of Beyer's numbers or figures, to reflect truth or influence minds??

Andy Beyer in one of his articles after the Derby condemned the whole crop of 3year olds which in effect helped to discredit BB's Derby and Preakness wins.

I'm not a figures guy at all, but I sure would like to know how the ratio of figures given out this year compared to other years?

[cj]

It isn't only Beyer figures that reflect a pretty poor 3yo crop. Look at the numbers from races that don't include Big Brown. They are downright pedestrian.

[Bobzilla]

One cannot take anything away from BB's performance yesterday as he did everything any reasonable person would expect from a very talented animal enjoying nothing less than an advantageous trip, and say that with the full realization that gate to wire jobs on the lawn aren't always the easiest of assignments, so congrats to BB for digging in and fending off the late charge from the legitimate Proudinsky and wide-trip-soft-turf compromised Shakis.

I do think, however, that many handicappers and true students of the turf (people who analyze sans pre-conceived notions, unaffected by hype or personal biases and preferences) would have liked to have seen how BB might have responded to even the slightest bit of adversity; or had he somehow been boxed in amongst older: or had been looked in the eye by older and more seasoned. What would have happened if BB had broken to the outside of the other speed in the race and Elliott decided to ride Kiss the Kid like a racehorse and go to the front which would have been the latter's best chance(if they were serious)? Could BB have been able to press him and take him when he wanted and still had enough fresh legs to stave off Proudinsky and Shakis? Maybe. And where was all the speed we had heard so much about during all the prognosticating over this event? Hmnnnn....

I'm not knocking BB. He did what he was supposed to do and he looked good doing it. A perfect prep. Kudos to Desormeaux for letting BB do the thinking for him and just balance himself on Brownie's back. I think BB is exceptionally talented and a marvelous physical speciman. However, since he did have everything go his way during the first 6 or 7 panels I do not feel as though I can accurately gauge him any better in the wake of yesterday's performance. I would have prefered to have sen him launch from a pp further outside and have been forced to engage much sooner. He did what I would have expected given the dynamics. Many of my own questions are still unanswered.

[Charlie D]

He beat that SoCal horse, who has turned out to be very good, in Dubai. The name escapes me right now. Well Armed maybe?


I was thinking of just this years US races CJ


If you include DWC, Curlin demolished decent horses in Asiatic Boy and Well Armed

[jonnielu]

BINGO.......are the intentions of Beyer's numbers or figures, to reflect truth or influence minds??

Andy Beyer in one of his articles after the Derby condemned the whole crop of 3year olds which in effect helped to discredit BB's Derby and Preakness wins.

I'm not a figures guy at all, but I sure would like to know how the ratio of figures given out this year compared to other years?

It seems that the modern intention is to somehow keep the army of faithful ( also known as "the suckers") from adding 2 + 2 to come up with the answer that Beyers are no more indicative of anything, then time is, or ever was.

Beyer figures perform no better then the old DRF speed rating, you would want to try to keep people from thinking about that if you were trying to save a publishing empire.

When 95% of players talk about how good Beyers are on one hand, then mention that they can't win, on the other, those new players that are attracted to the game are listening. You don't see them clammering around the DRF stand at the track, they know that they can do just as well betting jockeys as Beyer figures.

jdl

[asH]

It isn't only Beyer figures that reflect a pretty poor 3yo crop. Look at the numbers from races that don't include Big Brown. They are downright pedestrian.

compared to?

this is the first year, that I know of , a Derby winner had to account for the crop of his peers...if this were done for previous crops, then I could see the logic, but this is a first, and I believe for another motive.

the confluence of negative influence surrounding BB is beyond real.

[cj]

It seems that the modern intention is to somehow keep the army of faithful ( also known as "the suckers") from adding 2 + 2 to come up with the answer that Beyers are no more indicative of anything, then time is, or ever was.

Beyer figures perform no better then the old DRF speed rating,

jdl

Completely, 100% false. Beyers predict the winner and return a better ROI than both final time alone and the old DRF speed rating.

[cj]

compared to?

this is the first year, that I know of , a Derby winner had to account for the crop of his peers...if this were done for previous crops, then I could see the logic, but this is a first, and I believe for another motive.

the confluence of negative influence surrounding BB is beyond real.

Are you serious? Are you new to racing? I can remember this as far back as Seattle Slew, and it was probably going on way before that.

[Charlie D]

Last year there was

Curlin, Street Sense, Rags to Riches and maybe Hard Spun


This year


Big Brown and who???

[jonnielu]

It isn't only Beyer figures that reflect a pretty poor 3yo crop. Look at the numbers from races that don't include Big Brown. They are downright pedestrian.

To mis-understand how time applies to horse racing, is quite pedestrian. Especially when you compound that mis-understanding by making it your basis of predicting which horses will run well today.

After 35 years of practice, the Beyer figure should call at least half of the races. If something is truly indicative, it should get better, not stay the same or regress. How many thousands of people have worked with these ratings? Where is the improvement?

jdl

[ghostyapper]

Not for anything:

While it's fair to knock the 3yo crop that Big Brown is beating, and knowing full well his Beyers are light compared to Curlin, who exactly is Curlin beating?

Curlin already proved last year that he can run against a great field and dominate. Even this year he toyed with well armed in dubai. Well armed is better than anything BB has faced.

[cj]

No one factor will ever predict 50% winners in all races...ever.

The profit of said factor is directly dependent on the availability to the masses. That said, your post was still dead wrong, so you change the argument.

[Charlie D]

After 35 years of practice, the Beyer figure should call at least half of the races. If something is truly indicative, it should get better, not stay the same or regress. How many thousands of people have worked with these ratings? Where is the improvement?

jdl


No past performance is guaranteed to be repeated

Look a Curlin, look a Big Brown and you'll see peaks and troughs throughout their racing careers, the reason for this is each race is different

[ghostyapper]

It seems that the modern intention is to somehow keep the army of faithful ( also known as "the suckers") from adding 2 + 2 to come up with the answer that Beyers are no more indicative of anything, then time is, or ever was.

Beyer figures perform no better then the old DRF speed rating, you would want to try to keep people from thinking about that if you were trying to save a publishing empire.
jdl

If what you say is true then the raw times of BB must show he is the great horse you think he is right?

[jonnielu]

Last year there was

Curlin, Street Sense, Rags to Riches and maybe Hard Spun

All in the 50's at 10f


This year


Big Brown and who???

BB is a 30 at 10f, Curlin has never run below 48. If speed figures were based in racing consistency, they would consistently make sense with results. They don't.

jdl

[Charlie D]

Curlin is 132

Big Brown is 127

Big Brown has to improve to beat Curlin at his best.

Thats according to me, you and others may see it differently



I'll meet you and the others in the market place if they ever get it on

[asH]

Completely, 100% false. Beyers predict the winner and return a better ROI than both final time alone and the old DRF speed rating.

your statement needs a qualifier, if looked at in space, a unaware handicapper could be led to believe time has no meaning. When in fact Beyer/figure equations start with time, an important initial element. Its only Because of bias , lengths, wind, alignment of the stars, that figures become popular; they are an attempt to explain quality of a race...but can they explain the quality of a horse? How much is based on hocus pocus? they are not accountable so we will never know, (thats my problem with them) and the illusion lives on.

[cj]

your statement needs a qualifier, if looked at in space, a unaware handicapper could be led to believe time has no meaning. When in fact Beyer/figure equations start with time, an important initial element. Its only Because of bias , lengths, wind, alignment of the stars, that figures become popular; they are an attempt to explain quality of a race...but can they explain the quality of a horse? How much is based on hocus pocus? they are not accountable so we will never know, (thats my problem with them) and the illusion lives on.

I was just pointing out a blatantly false statement.

[jonnielu]

No one factor will ever predict 50% winners in all races...ever.

The profit of said factor is directly dependent on the availability to the masses. That said, your post was still dead wrong, so you change the argument.

Mythology. Where is the performance dependant on availablity. If the speed rating were any more indicative then anything else, most winners would have the best speed rating, and far fewer horses would be coming in 2nd and 3rd with lousy speed ratings.

You know far more about what is supposed to be, then you know about what is.

jdl

[cj]

Mythology. Where is the performance dependant on availablity. If the speed rating were any more indicative then anything else, most winners would have the best speed rating, and far fewer horses would be coming in 2nd and 3rd with lousy speed ratings.

You know far more about what is supposed to be, then you know about what is.

jdl

The only mythology here is you trying claim speed figure makers purport them to be more than they are. They are simply and enhanced final time, nothing more. They are better than raw final time. They are not better than an overall evaluation of a horse's entire record. They do help in that evaluation, however.

[jonnielu]

Completely, 100% false. Beyers predict the winner and return a better ROI than both final time alone and the old DRF speed rating.

Is that by .01 or .02, the point is none are worth much in the scope of predicting the winner today, when compared with those factors that are actually prominent. Beyers are probably great for those that have reduced their expectations down to nothing. That would make them, better then nothing.

jdl

[asH]

Seattle Slew? oh yeah Beyer picked Comorant, but he didnt debase the entire crop of three's

[cj]

Seattle Slew? oh yeah Beyer picked Comorant, but he didnt debase the entire crop of three's

Many people bashed that entire crop.

[Tom]

Where did you spend your 35 years at the track, Jon....the Bar?

Hey, Mr Perfect - when you post - before the races - 50% winners from at least 1000 races, you can talk, until then, your are a fool yapping on the internet, making claims your figures cannot support. Up unit now, I have seen you post two winners ahead of time - BB and a $3.40 horse. Imagine my amazement.

[cj]

Is that by .01 or .02, the point is none are worth much in the scope of predicting the winner today, when compared with those factors that are actually prominent. Beyers are probably great for those that have reduced their expectations down to nothing. That would make them, better then nothing.

jdl

No, it is a much bigger margin by that. If you don't know, why post what you did?

I don't believe anyone here talks about Beyers as the basis for a bet BUT YOU! People use them to discuss a race after it has happened. It is a starting point. Again, nothing more. Did Beyer beat you up in grade school or something? Did he give you an atomic wedgie?

[jonnielu]

The only mythology here is you trying claim speed figure makers purport them to be more than they are. They are simply and enhanced final time, nothing more. They are better than raw final time. They are not better than an overall evaluation of a horse's entire record. They do help in that evaluation, however.

No, they do not, neither does the consideration of time. Consideration of either in the evaluation of a horses record is more likely to have the bettor losing then winning.

The bettor has more chance if he throws time out of consideration completely.

The bettor would be far ahead to assume that all horses in a given race are as equal in ability as they are standing in the gate.

The concept of speed figures as an indication of a horses ability to run, has a hole in it that you can drive a truck thru. Every users ROI proves that, every racing day. The fact that there will be a few winners today between 5-1 and 15-1, proves that.

The average mutuel paid in North America proves that, year after year. What was it when you were born? What is it for 2007?

[jonnielu]

Where did you spend your 35 years at the track, Jon....the Bar?

Hey, Mr Perfect - when you post - before the races - 50% winners from at least 1000 races, you can talk, until then, your are a fool yapping on the internet, making claims your figures cannot support. Up unit now, I have seen you post two winners ahead of time - BB and a $3.40 horse. Imagine my amazement.

Not surprised, couldn't figure you for one capable of paying any attention to anything.

jdl

[jonnielu]

No, it is a much bigger margin by that. If you don't know, why post what you did?

I don't believe anyone here talks about Beyers as the basis for a bet BUT YOU! People use them to discuss a race after it has happened. It is a starting point. Again, nothing more. Did Beyer beat you up in grade school or something? Did he give you an atomic wedgie?

Speed ratings have become the basis of the handicapper's thinking, the horsemen have always loved it because the easiest thing for them to do is mess up a speed figure.

jdl

[Greyfox]

The bettor has more chance if he throws time out of consideration completely.

The bettor would be far ahead to assume that all horses in a given race are as equal in ability as they are standing in the gate.



I truly hope that you convince as many players as you can that the above has merit.
That would make it much better for guys like me at the windows.
If you can win believing that way, good on you.
I start from the absolutely opposite assumption, that the horses in a given race are always unequal in ability. That premise serves me well.

[jonnielu]

I truly hope that you convince as many players as you can that the above has merit.
That would make it much better for guys like me at the windows.
If you can win believing that way, good on you.
I start from the absolutely opposite assumption, that the horses in a given race are always unequal in ability. That premise serves me well.

I would only try to convince the player that he should continue betting the favorite everytime, unless the guy sweeping the floor tells him about a hot tip.

The only way to convince anybody of anything is by telling them what they want to hear.

jdl

[cj]

I would only try to convince the player that he should continue betting the favorite everytime, unless the guy sweeping the floor tells him about a hot tip.

The only way to convince anybody of anything is by telling them what they want to hear.

jdl

I found a nice photo of you and all your customers:

http://gallery.photo.net/photo/1466607-lg.jpg

[asH]

one thing Beyer's numbers do that we can all agree on is influence perception, thus creating overlays and underlays on the board....influence in the wrong hands is dangerous.

http://carpe-diem.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/18/empty_pockets_broke_destitute.jpg

[cj]

Again, point me to one post where someone says they are betting a horse strictly because of a Beyer.

[asH]

influence, beyer numbers have a big influence in handicapping decisions.

if figures attempt to explain key factors/factors (subjective) of a running line into a number, then cappers who acknowledge them (figures), do so with confidence and as a shortcut.; thats what they are intended to be, shortcuts to deep analysis. I suspect handicappers who truly believe in their figures do compare figures of competing horses..this a is logical conclusion.

[joanied]

;)

Yup, Big Brown "can't win." The plethora of naysayers said first he won running against young non-proven horses, then he can only run on dirt, then he runs on turf but it was against unprovens, now it's older proven horses on turf, and that doesn't seem to garner him any respect either.

There should be a contest, where every racing fan in the world submits a list of horses they want Big Brown to run against that would "satisfy" them. :D


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Pretty much what I was gonna say here...seems some folks just ain't never gonna be satisfied.
Big Brown:jump:

[Tom]

Not surprised, couldn't figure you for one capable of paying any attention to anything.

jdl

Work with me Jon, so far you have offered nothing to pay attention to.
No one could be as stupid about racing as your pretend to be. You see, CJ, Ranchwest, they put selections where their mouths are. You talk, talk talk, but are pretty empty. Except to run down those who actully know how to pick winners. You mock Beyer, yet who has ever heard of you? Oh, wait, now I remeber you....you were the guy with the handful of blue sheets next to the program seller...you were saying something about 4 winners, 1 on top!

[jognlope]

CJ, are you near Ada, OK?

[cj]

Moore.

[Pace Cap'n]

or less.

[jonnielu]

I won't be on the interstate headed to the plant in the morning. Beyer has one thing right, it is impossible to insult the intelligence of the past performance handicapper.

jdl

[classhandicapper]

I think this debate really boils down to whether you believe final time is the primary determinant of ability (like the Thorograph and RAGs players) or that ability is multi-faceted and the final time is just a function of pace, race development, position, how the track is playing etc.... and that better horses just tend to run faster final times. So in the latter case, you wind up with a lot of winners for the wrong reasons if you use speed figures alone.

If I understand the conversation, jonnielu is in the latter category and also believes speed figures are of little betting value because everyone is already using them.

jonnielu, I think few "here" actually disagree with you - though many on other boards are very geared towards Beyers or their own speed figures alone. It's just that as CJ said, the conversation has to start somewhere. So we usually start with the speed figure and discuss the rest of the race in more subjective terms.

[Greyfox]

Beyer has one thing right, it is impossible to insult the intelligence of the past performance handicapper.

jdl

I can't recall Andy saying that. But I've been wrong before.
Please point out where he actually said that ?

[Tom]

First he insults him, now he lies about him.
Classy guy. Real classy.

[jonnielu]

I think this debate really boils down to whether you believe final time is the primary determinant of ability (like the Thorograph and RAGs players) or that ability is multi-faceted and the final time is just a function of pace, race development, position, how the track is playing etc.... and that better horses just tend to run faster final times. So in the latter case, you wind up with a lot of winners for the wrong reasons if you use speed figures alone.

If I understand the conversation, jonnielu is in the latter category and also believes speed figures are of little betting value because everyone is already using them.

jonnielu, I think few "here" actually disagree with you - though many on other boards are very geared towards Beyers or their own speed figures alone. It's just that as CJ said, the conversation has to start somewhere. So we usually start with the speed figure and discuss the rest of the race in more subjective terms.

No, I believe that the speed figure is of little value because it does not reflect the ability of the horse. Partly because the time itself does not reflect the ability of the horse (unless running alone), and partly because of the assumption that the track affects the time in different ways at different times.

The fact that the speed figure is played so broadly as a basis, is actually a boon to anyone who does have a sound indication of ability. The largest of that group, are trainers. In the scope of everyday racing, speed figures are much easier to darken, or completely ruin, then form.

Sure, I'm a lunatic, but I believe that within the scope of everyday racing, the trainers job is to find the ability, and hide it from everyone else. Those that were good at it in 1975, had little to teach their proteges on the subject when speed figures became popular in the 80's. Beyer had made it so much easier for them by arbitrarily assigning discrepency to the track, because it certainly couldn't be a result of his concept being in error.

I'm supposed to be arrogant, but I've never been able to come up with such a truckload as that. When I come up with something that doesn't work, I look at the man in the mirror as the culprit first.

If they were doing what they were supposed to do, they might be affecting prices by now, but the only effect is that 3-1 fav is hammered to 6-5 now instead of just 9-5. It still loses 70% of the time.

But, they were supposed to reveal ability, not help hide it.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I can't recall Andy saying that. But I've been wrong before.
Please point out where he actually said that ?

Did I say that was some sort of public utterance?

jdl

[Greyfox]

Did I say that was some sort of public utterance?

jdl

I responded to a comment that you made. I asked where did Beyer ever say that? May I remind you that you wrote:

"Beyer has one thing right, it is impossible to insult the intelligence of the past performance handicapper."

Now you reply, "Did I say that was some sort of public utterance?"
If Beyer didnt say that as a "public utterance" where did he ever say it?
Tom, has already called you a "Liar."

There's an old Scottish saying that says:
"He who claim's must show."

I'm lining up with Tom here, Joni...

[asH]

jdl,

I see it a bit different; anyone creating figures will have their own personal caldron of factoids that they deem important to their equations. No two sets of figures of two different figure makers could ever be equal to each other (have the same meaning) unless each factor is the same and each weighted opinion of each factor is the same; thus making them subjective.

For simplicity Figure maker a determines that BB’s Haskell should have a bias of 10, and a power rating of 10 in his/her equation 10 X10 = 100 speed rating

Figure maker b determines a power rating of 50, a bias of .5, and a class rating of 4

(50X .5)X 4 = 100 speed rating

Yes the speed rating of these two figure makers are 100 and equal, but the meanings (stuff that make up the 100’s) are totally different - apples and oranges…on top of all this how does anyone defend an argument based on subjective data…I could go on with many different aspects, but I’ll resist, for now.

[PaceAdvantage]

If you're opinion is that BB is a great horse and as good or better than Curlin, saturdays results did nothing to help that opinion.I'm not sure why you posted this, as I don't think I've ever said BB is a GREAT horse, nor have I said that I think he's better than Curlin.

What I've said was that if they both meet in October or November, and BB develops like any good 3yo should, BB should be able to give Curlin a serious run for his money, as I believe Curlin is not the same horse he was in Dubai, and is slightly overrated by the majority of horse racing aficionados.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would have prefered to have sen him launch from a pp further outside and have been forced to engage much sooner. He did what I would have expected given the dynamics. Many of my own questions are still unanswered.So, that whole 20 post in the Derby, where he went mega-wide around both turns did nothing for you? BB has faced adversity more than once in the past...it was about time he got a trip more to his liking....

[Humph]

Not really CJ, he faced decent Euro horses, but they are a little below the ability of Zarakava, Soldier of Fortune, Henrythenavigator, Tamayuz imo

Totally agree. We know that DOM is a little way in front of the likes of Phoenix Tower - who's a decent horse but no world beater - and Cambridgeshire winner Pipedreamer, but this level of form hardly entitles him to be classed as the best in the world ,imho.

[jonnielu]

jdl,

I see it a bit different; anyone creating figures will have their own personal caldron of factoids that they deem important to their equations. No two sets of figures of two different figure makers could ever be equal to each other (have the same meaning) unless each factor is the same and each weighted opinion of each factor is the same; thus making them subjective.

For simplicity Figure maker a determines that BB’s Haskell should have a bias of 10, and a power rating of 10 in his/her equation 10 X10 = 100 speed rating

Figure maker b determines a power rating of 50, a bias of .5, and a class rating of 4

(50X .5)X 4 = 100 speed rating

Yes the speed rating of these two figure makers are 100 and equal, but the meanings (stuff that make up the 100’s) are totally different - apples and oranges…on top of all this how does anyone defend an argument based on subjective data…I could go on with many different aspects, but I’ll resist, for now.

That is what I am saying, I see the basic skew as time itself. For any given horse beside the leader, it is inaccurate. So how does someone come up with a hard figure off of soft data. One group of claimers went in 1:12, the other group of claimers went in 1:13, the track must have changed.

You may as well be betting any other factor, this one is no more indicative.

Everything past must be considered for its effect on today's run, and in that perspective. However the speed figure is calculated, and no matter what is stirred in, it is purported to be some sort of number that reflects a horses ability.

The results every day show plainly, that it is not.

Beside that, it sets into your mind, the idea that there is some great differences amongst horses of a given class level. The daily results show that there is not.

But, as a bettor that has bought into the fantasy, how often can you find the courage to bet the 95 against the 100, all other things being equal. But, then how often does the 95 beat the 100? Always easily explained with the idea that you didn't see something in the right perspective.

To make sound betting decisions, that he/she can in turn accept the results of, and be affirmed in the knowledge that it was a sound betting decision, the bettor needs to know in what areas horses are the same, and in what areas they are different.

In modern racing, the data that can tell you that is worthwhile, the data that can't tell you that, is not.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I'm not sure why you posted this, as I don't think I've ever said BB is a GREAT horse, nor have I said that I think he's better than Curlin.

What I've said was that if they both meet in October or November, and BB develops like any good 3yo should, BB should be able to give Curlin a serious run for his money, as I believe Curlin is not the same horse he was in Dubai, and is slightly overrated by the majority of horse racing aficionados.

I think he was talking to me, I said that BB is a great horse, I said that he has ability that Curlin is unable to match. He had the record of a great horse after the Fl Derby, and expanded on that since. He will continue to do so.

jdl

[ghostyapper]

I'm not sure why you posted this, as I don't think I've ever said BB is a GREAT horse, nor have I said that I think he's better than Curlin.

What I've said was that if they both meet in October or November, and BB develops like any good 3yo should, BB should be able to give Curlin a serious run for his money, as I believe Curlin is not the same horse he was in Dubai, and is slightly overrated by the majority of horse racing aficionados.

Ahh the dreaded semantics argument. Ok if your opinion is that "BB, if he develops like any 3yo, will give curlin a run for his money" then saturday's race did nothing to help that opinion. There happy now?

And just as you can find people who said he had no shot saturday, I can find even more that called this horse great.

[Robert Fischer]

overcame a vulnerable spot and drew some fans out to the park

was really embarrassing :blush: that a horse who could actually draw fans to physically drive to a race track, wasn't being pimped on espn or something. "TVG ON ESPN" wouldn't have been so difficult to say after every commercial break on a broadcast on the espn network.


have to give Big Brown some credit. I bet against him, meaning I thought he was vulnerable and he overcame a little adversity. - Again.


He isn't Secretariat, but he won down in florida @ 9 furlings from that outside post. He won the Derby from post 20. He beat a huge run from a runaway speed horse on a biased track in the Haskel. Now he won on a non-firm turf against older stakes horses. At least he proved he is "only equine" when he failed to win a 12furlong race with a bent-down shoe.

He seems like a huge bet-against in the Classic on a synthetic surface. Could he pull it off again?

[classhandicapper]

No, I believe that the speed figure is of little value because it does not reflect the ability of the horse. Partly because the time itself does not reflect the ability of the horse (unless running alone), and partly because of the assumption that the track affects the time in different ways at different times.

The fact that the speed figure is played so broadly as a basis, is actually a boon to anyone who does have a sound indication of ability. The largest of that group, are trainers. In the scope of everyday racing, speed figures are much easier to darken, or completely ruin, then form.

Sure, I'm a lunatic, but I believe that within the scope of everyday racing, the trainers job is to find the ability, and hide it from everyone else. Those that were good at it in 1975, had little to teach their proteges on the subject when speed figures became popular in the 80's. Beyer had made it so much easier for them by arbitrarily assigning discrepency to the track, because it certainly couldn't be a result of his concept being in error.

I'm supposed to be arrogant, but I've never been able to come up with such a truckload as that. When I come up with something that doesn't work, I look at the man in the mirror as the culprit first.

If they were doing what they were supposed to do, they might be affecting prices by now, but the only effect is that 3-1 fav is hammered to 6-5 now instead of just 9-5. It still loses 70% of the time.

But, they were supposed to reveal ability, not help hide it.

jdl

You basically said exactly what I said, but added the history lesson. ;)

[Tom]

His arguement might be more inpressive if he could cite stats for his ability numbers, which he cannot. He also doesn't use his ability figs by themselves, but keeps insiting that those who use speed figs do just that. It also might be more inpress if there were not many people actually making money using speed figures. You know yourself from CJ's board, double digit winners - before the races is run - are not uncommon. Johnny has a method that allegedly works for him, but cannot accept that others have their own. He uses his own failures as proof that no one can do it. He is trying to to tell everyone on this board that they are wrong. And he has a $3.40 winner to prove it! :lol::lol::lol:

[Stevie Belmont]

The horse is fast, plain and simple. He went to the lead, set pretty quick splits, turned for home, held off a determined Proudinksy in 12 seconds flat. It was one of his best efforts yet. And might have been his best.

Don't need stats or programs to figure any of this out...Class and speed are the best gauge of this ones ability, and all along, from the beginning he showed all these attributes.

All along the horse has showed his quick turn of foot and has superb speed. One race things did not work out. It happens. It's horseracing.

In all honesty I think the win enhances his legacy now. The Haskell win was nice, but many including myself, thought he still has to do more to get rid of the Belmont memory.

The whole steroid cloud that was hanging can be put to rest in my book after the win.

What ever happens from here and on out, I think Big Brown has proved he is a quality horse in more ways then one.

Will not get into a Curlin / BB match up, but there is no reason now why it should not happen in the Classic. I know that race will be the big one, with many others in there, but I can say with confidence, if BB shows up and likes the poly, he has as a good a chance to win as anyone that day.

He improved off the Haskell and Dutrow will have him ready with the 42 day break between the races.

[asH]

Dont the "experts" equate synth to turf; if true, seems a prep on turf to be perfect for synth date next..anyone have turf to SA synth data?

[asH]

jdl

time is the only truth in the equation!

[cj]

Dont the "experts" equate synth to turf; if true, seems a prep on turf to be perfect for synth date next..anyone have turf to SA synth data?

No, because nobody has raced on the current synthetic at Santa Anita yet.

[SMOO]

There is no way in the world that the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Haskell, BC Classic winner does NOT get Horse of the Year....is there?

Of course not.

[ghostyapper]

I think he was talking to me, I said that BB is a great horse, I said that he has ability that Curlin is unable to match. He had the record of a great horse after the Fl Derby, and expanded on that since. He will continue to do so.

jdl

Utter nonsense. What ability exactly is curlin unable to match? BB's 2 races at monmouth have done nothing to show that he is a great horse. In curlin's bc prep last year he was beating the best older horse in the country in the best fall race in ny. BB just beat some G2/G3 turf horse at a stakes race in jersey.

One thing that lies more than speed figures is your warped, subjective view on things.

[joanied]

Col. John breezed in 48 on the SA synthetic and Eion H said he went great and (so far) he is very happy with the new Pro Ride.
I realize the afternoon will be a different story...

[asH]

History proves champion older beats younger more times than not when they eventually meet. So for me it would have been interesting to watch, but no interest to bet...except after analyzing Curlin's last two races...(oh yeah Big Brown broke the Turf record by 2 seconds)...now far-be-it for me to dethrone Curlin, he is the older champion, and for me it cant be argued, history proves . Question, Can lightly raced BB beat Curlin? In my opinion of Curlin's last two, I believed Robby made bad decisions; on the turf he eliminated Curlin chances mathematically by positioning to far off the lead (would have had to run 10 seconds in the last panel to win) , and perhaps in his last by moving into the fractions to early (at the 1/2) while (hall of fame) Prado was trying his best to burn out his horse. In both races good speed near the lead created problems for (Hall of Fame) Robby Albarado

[asH]

beat

s

[Bobzilla]

So, that whole 20 post in the Derby, where he went mega-wide around both turns did nothing for you? BB has faced adversity more than once in the past...it was about time he got a trip more to his liking....

Not much doubt about it, he definitely had a trip to his liking this past weekend. Talk about putting the puck in front of the net....

BB has had some less than perfect circumstances to contend with during his brief career, but the adversity certainly was not insurmountable given the weakness of his competition. I realize from some of your past posts you're not in agreement in regard to the weakness of this year's sophmore group.

My opinion about BB's Ky Derby victory which began from post position 20 is a widely unpopular one which to many might smack of heresy. Certainly not an ideal assignment, but one that is easier to accomplish when you're about 20 speed points better than the group median and about 10 to 15 speed points better than your closest competition. Moreover, he enjoyed a tactical advantage over what might have been his best competition in the field (e.g. Colonel John, Denis of Cork). From what I recall those prominent during the earlier running, other than the filly, he was dramatically superior to. This is an example of adversity which can be overcome when you're so much the best. An argument can be made that if BB had been born a year earlier and if saddled with the furthest pp from the rail against last year's Derby group that he would have had a tremendously different Derby experience chasing Hard Spun around the track while staving off Street Sense.

The only point I was making with my earlier post is that I could have gauged him better if he had had adversity against an established quality field of proven seasoned veterans. The field was "unnaturally" too far behind him the other day (and not because of the pace either ) and as for the rating of the course even Desormeaux was quoted as saying the course felt more like a "firm" course. Wouldn't we have had more questions answered if he had broke to the outside of Kiss the Kidd who in the past has set quicker fractions than what Brownie did the other day? But here's KTK sitting 6 1/4 lenghts behind at the half. Yes, BB did good to hold off the proven Proudinsky and Shakis, but in terms of performance figures (not speed figures) the other two will score higher. A nuance point that some will understand while others will not.

Nobody will get an argument from me that BB is not a very talented animal and not one fast s.o.b. Heck, his Florida Derby by my numbers was chiilingly freakish. But to judge him accurately one needs to properly frame the context of his past performances which involves a critical review of his competition. For for the record I would think he would have an excellent chance to win the Classic on the probably turf-like Pro-Ride surface, especially if left all alone like the other day.

[46zilzal]

I would hate to see this slug win Horse of the Year by default.

[jonnielu]

Utter nonsense. What ability exactly is curlin unable to match? BB's 2 races at monmouth have done nothing to show that he is a great horse. In curlin's bc prep last year he was beating the best older horse in the country in the best fall race in ny. BB just beat some G2/G3 turf horse at a stakes race in jersey.

One thing that lies more than speed figures is your warped, subjective view on things.

Just keep watching, maybe you will learn.

jdl

[Charlie D]

Just keep watching, maybe you will learn.

jdl


Why don't you educate us, that way, when BB does what you say we can give you the credit it will deserve

[ghostyapper]

NAn argument can be made that if BB had been born a year earlier and if saddled with the furthest pp from the rail against last year's Derby group that he would have had a tremendously different Derby experience chasing Hard Spun around the track while staving off Street Sense.

And argument can be made? I thought that was a known fact.

[Charlie D]

Just checked UK AP market on Classic


Duke of Marmalade 4-1 Curlin 9-2 Henrythenavigaor 5-1 Big Brown 6-1 Colonel John 8-1

10-1 Bar



If BB fans think BB is that good, maybe they should dust off their passports and do the betting shops around London

[The Hawk]

I would hate to see this slug win Horse of the Year by default.

Curlin should be Horse of the Year, then? For that stirring Saratoga win over 2-time allowance winner Past the Point? Or that determined win over the turf horse Einstein in the Foster?

[joanied]

Here's an idea.... if she wins the BC Distaff (I refuse to use the term 'ladies' for fillies/mares)... Zenyatta for Horse of the Year:eek:

[Bobzilla]

And argument can be made? I thought that was a known fact.

You and I both may view this as a near certainty, however, I would seriously doubt it's universally accepted. Some of BB's most ardent fans use his Derby victory post position of 20 as indisputable proof of greatness while chosing to ignore some of the unfortunate realities of the field composition. Now, if BB had won the 2001 Derby (Monarchos year) from post position 20 while pressing those insane fractions then I would have considered him one of the greatest we've ever seen, especially if he were to duplicate that performance on a first form cycle.

[Bobzilla]

Here's an idea.... if she wins the BC Distaff (I refuse to use the term 'ladies' for fillies/mares)... Zenyatta for Horse of the Year:eek:

Joanied, thank you for continuing to refer to the BC Distaff by its true historical name. I find the new name of Ladies Classic both insulting to the intelligence and potentially patronizing to some women. There was nothing wrong with Distaff. When the BC first came to be and I heard the word I admittedly didn't know its origin. So I did what any person should do and I looked it up. I guess that's asking too much from contemporary society. Shouldn't an institution such as the Breeders' Cup take the high road and attempt to enlighten and engage in the "smarting up" process rather than simply caving to the current trend of the "dumbing down" process. I can't imagine the Classic being changed to the Gentlemen's Classic.

If BB should not perform on BC day and Z wins the Distaff then I would agree she should not be overlooked for HOTY honors. It would be close between her and Curlin.

[asH]

You and I both may view this as a near certainty, however, I would seriously doubt it's universally accepted. Some of BB's most ardent fans use his Derby victory post position of 20 as indisputable proof of greatness while chosing to ignore some of the unfortunate realities of the field composition. Now, if BB had won the 2001 Derby (Monarchos year) from post position 20 while pressing those insane fractions then I would have considered him one of the greatest we've ever seen, especially if he were to duplicate that performance on a first form cycle.

I believe Monarchos didnt press any of those fractions either, he was well off the heat befor making his run, Point Given suffered by moving into that heat to early; adjusted after to win the next two jewels.

always something:D
Big Brown's win not so hot

By MIKE WATCHMAKER
NEW YORK - We can agree that it is a good thing we all don't see horse racing the same way all of the time.

This thought came to mind when the positive reviews came rolling in for Big Brown and his victory in Saturday's Monmouth Stakes. Was this one of those rare instances where universal praise was warranted?

To a certain degree. Whether or not it was an event tailor-made for him, the Monmouth Stakes was Big Brown's first start against older opponents and his first turf start in a year. Big Brown set a solid pace and gamely turned back a couple of hard-knockers after being seriously challenged in the stretch. To those left cold by Big Brown's Haskell Invitational - where his win was more a function of the unheralded Coal Play running out of gas and coming back to Big Brown than Big Brown's courageously persevering - the Monmouth Stakes was a far more satisfying performance, even if it fell one point lower (105 to 106) on the Beyer Speed Figures.

But it is easy to take issue with what the spin doctors would have you believe: That Big Brown was immensely impressive Saturday because he "toyed" with a very talented group, that he somehow managed to eclipse reigning Horse of the Year Curlin in their "paper" battle for supremacy.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=98244

[Bobzilla]

I believe Monarchos didnt press any of those fractions either, he was well off the heat befor making his run, Point Given suffered by moving into that heat to early; adjusted after to win the next two jewels.

You're absolutely right. Monarchos did come off the pace. I didn't mean to suggest that he was part of the fractions that day. Congaree was part of the pace and remarkably held on for third. If memory serves wasn't it Invisable Ink up for second? My point was simply that BB, as talented as he is, would have had trouble getting into that particular event from pp20 and being anywhere near the end.

[asH]

name a horse that wouldnt have problems under that same situation.

[OTM Al]

Here comes the competition.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/08/09/15/RACING_Leighs.html

This guy shows up there may be a better chance that Curlin does. Now that would be a race worth seeing. Best on turf vs best on dirt on the 3rd surface.

[Bobzilla]

name a horse that wouldnt have problems under that same situation.

I'm not sure if there has ever lived a racehorse who wouldn't have had problems under those conditions. Would have taken a true immortal to overcome the problems. Back to my original point, BB's win from pp20, though undeniably impressive, was to some degree more a statement about the disparity in talent between him and his competition (as it was on that day) than it was about BB's ability to overcome adversity.

[asH]

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/curlin.pdf

it would be a good thing if we had both Curlin's and BB's past performances in front of us...it is amazing what a side by side comparison can do, sometimes.

Curlin, being 4 years old, in 14 races has been allowed to develop into the horse we know today. Horse of the year and champion 3 year old in 2007 with wins in the
Arkansas Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and the BC Classic en route. Curlin beat notable older horse Lawyer Ron in the Jockey gold Cup, and ..... Hard Spun in the Classic.

Big Brown has only won 7 of 8 meaningless races, and has to face conceivably the toughest bunch of older snot breathing horses assembled on the planet in the last 10 years to even get a mention for an eclispse...but then again, if Big Brown, by wing and a prayer should do well, this Classic will be deemed as the worst in BC history....go figure:D

[asH]

Bob,

your statement is one most (99.99%) handicappers have issue with, the matter is with perception..simply stated; is Big Brown as fast as it appears, or are the horses he's competing against soooo sloooow. Perception becomes more skewed when the element time ( either due to not fully understanding time as a measure, or other diabolical reasons, like marketing of black box numbers for commercial gain and control) is taken out of the equation ..the end result is amoung us

[jonnielu]

I'm not sure if there has ever lived a racehorse who wouldn't have had problems under those conditions. Would have taken a true immortal to overcome the problems. Back to my original point, BB's win from pp20, though undeniably impressive, was to some degree more a statement about the disparity in talent between him and his competition (as it was on that day) than it was about BB's ability to overcome adversity.

The mistake here is assuming that the disparity in ability is caused by the field being low in ability while BB is only average. When in fact BB is higher then the field, which is average in 2008, as it was in 2007. If speed figures were accurate this would be shown. But, Curlin gets elevated while BB gets downgraded as the errant notion of crop quality is honored. Leaving the fan, uninformed, but who cares?

jdl

[Charlie D]

but then again, if Big Brown, by wing and a prayer should do well, this Classic will be deemed as the worst in BC history....go figure:D




Big Brown is a good horse and he will not be embarrassed if taking to the surface. The same applies to Curlin, Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator


If they all turn up and all handle track, this will be a cracking race and the horses that finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd will deserve praise


The Classic above ain't gonna be easy for anyone

[Bobzilla]

The mistake here is assuming that the disparity in ability is caused by the field being low in ability while BB is only average. When in fact BB is higher then the field, which is average in 2008, as it was in 2007. If speed figures were accurate this would be shown. But, Curlin gets elevated while BB gets downgraded as the errant notion of crop quality is honored. Leaving the fan, uninformed, but who cares?

jdl

Hi Jon, I think you're assuming I'm assuming,lol... Actually I rate BB very high, but I did rate the majority in the Kentucky Derby field as it was on May 3rd below average with some notable exceptions but none of whom approached Brownie. Very high to below average is a wide gap. I've been creating my own figs for about two decades, as imperfect as they are, both speed and adjusted performance. I realize you're not a figs guy, Jon. That's okay as I realize there are many ways to skin this cat. But that's my world and I do need to have the strength of my conviction with these things. I also need to not become a victim to misperception and have faith in my numbers just like a pilot flying IFR conditions needs to believe in the instruments on his firewall when he's above the clouds.

Just to be clear, I am not in any way a detractor of Big Brown. He cannot help the year he was born. He cannot help who his human connections are. He has proven to me since the spring he is very fast. He has proven to me he can carry that speed over a distance of ground. He has exhibited a surface ambidexterity. What I would have liked to have seen is Big Brown carry his speed over a distance of ground while in close proximity to comparable foes, or at least close in ability, as the performances of many do alter to varying degrees once this condition is encountered. That's usually where the intangible quality of class steps into the picture. I respectfully disagree with anyone who thinks he encountered adversity on Saturday. He was, for whatever reason, afforded a cushioned lead. I respectfully disagree with anyone who believes that the fractions were fast, I consider them a good moderate but easily within the capability of a G1 turf performer. The adversity he has had has been while running against cupcakes, but against some seasoned pros enjoyed what I consider to be a near perfect trip. Time will tell and we'll see what he has to deal with at Santa Anita next month.

[joanied]

Joanied, thank you for continuing to refer to the BC Distaff by its true historical name. I find the new name of Ladies Classic both insulting to the intelligence and potentially patronizing to some women. There was nothing wrong with Distaff. When the BC first came to be and I heard the word I admittedly didn't know its origin. So I did what any person should do and I looked it up. I guess that's asking too much from contemporary society. Shouldn't an institution such as the Breeders' Cup take the high road and attempt to enlighten and engage in the "smarting up" process rather than simply caving to the current trend of the "dumbing down" process. I can't imagine the Classic being changed to the Gentlemen's Classic.

If BB should not perform on BC day and Z wins the Distaff then I would agree she should not be overlooked for HOTY honors. It would be close between her and Curlin.

And thank you too...I keep getting the urge to email the BloodHorse mag about calling the Distaff, aarrgghhh...Ladies, and your mention of calling the Classic 'gentelmens' is perfect...they would never, never even consider that.
Besides the patronizing theme, it simply sounds really, really stupid.
Are there any women:confused: on the BC board??

Glad you agree that 'Z' should be in contention for the HOTY...if BB throws in a clunker and Curlin stays home after the JCGC...and we still have to see if Curlin takes that one....guess he did breeze at the Spa and went 'effortlessly'.

[jonnielu]

Hi Jon, I think you're assuming I'm assuming,lol...

Just to be clear, I am not in any way a detractor of Big Brown. He cannot help the year he was born. He cannot help who his human connections are. He has proven to me since the spring he is very fast. He has proven to me he can carry that speed over a distance of ground. He has exhibited a surface ambidexterity. What I would have liked to have seen is Big Brown carry his speed over a distance of ground while in close proximity to comparable foes, or at least close in ability, as the performances of many do alter to varying degrees once this condition is encountered. That's usually where the intangible quality of class steps into the picture..

You are a sharp analyst Bob, I'm not arguing, I am offering a different perspective. One that agrees with every point you note above. But, as you so well articulate above, you may be reserving the final accolades while you wait for a horse to appear that just isn't there. You are nodding to BB's ability, but offing that his class may be suspect.

The class disparity was displayed with the win at GP. At the time, there were two 3YO's displaying that class level. BB and War Pass. For the classic class showdown, War Pass is the opponent that you want to see. He may be the only horse that the past two years has seen, that could put enough early heat on BB.

jdl

[OTM Al]

Hard Spun had some decent early speed I think. I would think he could have pressed BB pretty well. He likely would not have held for the win, but then a duel like that would probably have finished both of them. Could have answered a lot of these questions anyway.

[asH]

What I would have liked to have seen is Big Brown carry his speed over a distance of ground while in close proximity to comparable foes, or at least close in ability, as the performances of many do alter to varying degrees once this condition is encountered[/b]. Time will tell and we'll see what he has to deal with at Santa Anita next month.

Would you like him to slow down and wait for a comparable foe :D Speed is his gift, there are not many that can deliver speed at a distance.

[Bobzilla]

Would you like him to slow down and wait for a comparable foe :D Speed is his gift, there are not many that can deliver speed at a distance.

I understand your humorous point and it's a good one. Hypothetically speaking of course, if Brownie were to grace us with another year of his presence rather than being whisked away to his next career on Oct 26th, I think we both know that sooner or later somebody was going to stir the pot a little and it wouild have been interesting to see his response once faced with an unfamiliar or uncomfortable dynamic. Invariably, it will happen if given time. You're right, his gift is his speed, or better yet his accelleration. But when one gets used to having a knockout punch like that and the day comes when someone can take it and punches you right back in the face it can become a moment of revelation. Eventually there would have been an extended engagement to which he was going to need an answer. But hey, I don't doubt for one moment the big guy might have of had one.

[Tom]

I'm not sure I would call what War Pass had as "class." He was an early developer, and just fast ahead of the others. You see them every year, and then they are gone. I think had he had to challenge anyone, he would have folded up. His game was get clear and run, not fight. Hard Spun was able to continue all year - he had class, just a touch below the top ones.

[asH]

Bob,
For me, the issue of when in his career the pot was stirred rather than who. This is a young horse with only 7 races, who really, as you state, has not been challenged, even in his last. Most champions learn how to rate and relax going a distance, this guy wants to run from the gate, and is not willing to adhere to his riders directions; that's dangerous going long. If you noticed in his last, and I'm sure you did, the connections allowed BB to run from the gate, as he wanted, relax towards the middle, then run again down the stretch. This will probably be the blueprint for the classic. He seems manageable on the turf, so it wouldnt surprise me if he trains on it. I would like to see him train at 7f to 8f distance to add the stamina he's going to need in the Classic. always enjoy reading your posts

[asH]

If Hard Spun had a jock who knew better than 22+, 46+ for the Derby, and 45+,109+ for the Preakness, he may have been able to carry his speed..Hard Spun was able to rate.

[cj's dad]

If Hard Spun had a jock who knew better than 22+, 46+ for the Derby, and 45+,109+ for the Preakness, he may have been able to carry his speed..Hard Spun was able to rate.

Yeah, take that Mario, ya bum.:lol:

[Tom]

Don't get "Class" going again......:rolleyes::lol:;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok if your opinion is that "BB, if he develops like any 3yo, will give curlin a run for his money" then saturday's race did nothing to help that opinion.It didn't? I guess I stand fooled....it sure looked to me like BB took a few step forwards from the Haskell....

[PaceAdvantage]

I would hate to see this slug win Horse of the Year by default.Slug....:lol:

Did your DRF turf writer buddy give you that line? How's he doing lately up there in the Great White North?

Slug....:lol: ....stop it, you're making me belly ache with laughter....

[PaceAdvantage]

Here comes the competition.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/08/09/15/RACING_Leighs.html

This guy shows up there may be a better chance that Curlin does. Now that would be a race worth seeing. Best on turf vs best on dirt on the 3rd surface.The more I think about the BC Classic this year, the more I see the very real possibility of BOTH Big Brown and Curlin getting SMOKED by a Euro....

[john del riccio]

The more I think about the BC Classic this year, the more I see the very real possibility of BOTH Big Brown and Curlin getting SMOKED by a Euro....

BB is no slouch on gras but with that said, he is several lengths better on dirt than he is on turf. Also, I beleive is is not as good at 1 1/4 miles as he is at 1 1/8. Both those reasons make him a bet against in the BC. As for CURLIN, he is also several lengths better on dirt although his lone turf race was at 1 1/2 Miles which is a different race dynamic for sure. Anyway, they should start calling this the Rubber Cup.....its going to be strange for sure.

John

[Tom]

The more I think about the BC Classic this year, the more I see the very real possibility of BOTH Big Brown and Curlin getting SMOKED by a Euro....

That is certainly a possibility. Several have come close on dirt, this FreeRide stuff can sure throw a monkey wrench into the race. From a betting standpoint, I'm looking forward to it, but from a test of champions, fugedabootit. JCGC is the Classic IMHO.

[classhandicapper]

Don't get "Class" going again......:rolleyes::lol:;)

It was tough to resist. :lol:

[ghostyapper]

It didn't? I guess I stand fooled....it sure looked to me like BB took a few step forwards from the Haskell....

And it was a few steps back from his performance's in the spring. So how he is improving?

[asH]

And it was a few steps back from his performance's in the spring. So how he is improving?


???:bang:

[OTM Al]

The more I think about the BC Classic this year, the more I see the very real possibility of BOTH Big Brown and Curlin getting SMOKED by a Euro....

I totally agree with you. With both the Duke and Henry being considered for this one, that is some heady competition. You see a horse called Phoenix Tower show up, don't discount him either. Been just behind the Duke all year over there (and just missed a nice score for me in the Juddmonte!!!!!)

[Bobzilla]

As I suspected, BC Board member Tracy Farmer, the owner of Commentator, is considering sending him to the BC after the Mass Capp. Nick Zito is not a fan of the synthetic movement so I wonder if C will be handed off to Mandella or Cerin. If C does go it will at least ensure an honest pace.

[PaceAdvantage]

And it was a few steps back from his performance's in the spring. So how he is improving?Not really. Beyer-wise, only the Kentucky Derby (109) was a bigger number for him than he's run since the Belmont disaster....His numbers in the Haskell and the Monmouth Stakes, if I recall, are better than the numbers he ran in the Florida Derby and Preakness.

I'm actually surprised he hasn't thrown out a substantially higher figure since early in the spring. It could mean he has plateaued, or it could mean he's sitting on a whole new top...maybe that funky surface at Santa Anita is all it will take to bring it out of him....

[Charlie D]

His numbers in the Haskell and the Monmouth Stakes, if I recall, are better than the numbers he ran in the Florida Derby and Preakness

DRF.com

Monmouth S 105
Haskel 106
Preakness 100
Kentucky Derby 109
Florida Derby 106

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok, so I was one point off in the Monmouth Stakes when I said "only the KD is a bigger number than anything he's run since the Belmont Disaster....."

Sorry...

[classhandicapper]

Not really. Beyer-wise, only the Kentucky Derby (109) was a bigger number for him than he's run since the Belmont disaster....His numbers in the Haskell and the Monmouth Stakes, if I recall, are better than the numbers he ran in the Florida Derby and Preakness.

I'm actually surprised he hasn't thrown out a substantially higher figure since early in the spring. It could mean he has plateaued, or it could mean he's sitting on a whole new top...maybe that funky surface at Santa Anita is all it will take to bring it out of him....

I'm still having a tough time figuring this horse out.

His Florida Derby was better than the speed figure looks because he started from the outside post and was used while wide on the first turn to get clear.

His Derby was better than the speed figure looks because he lost so much ground (something I think is very difficult to quantify even if you know the literal ground loss)

His Preakness was slower, but he won very easily. So it's hard to tell how fast he could have run.

The Haskell was OK, but it was his first race after the Belmont debacle and he probably wasn't 100%.

This last race was on turf. I'm of the opionion that not only does dirt/turf form not translate well, neither do the Beyer figures at the top of the scale. IMHO, it's not impossible that his 105 in that race on turf is actually the fastest race he's run (though not the best race because of trip issues above).

I think there's almost no chance he (or anyone else) runs a huge figure on the synthetic track. You just don't see really big Beyers on sythetic very often the same way to don't see them on turf very often. There's figure issue that's a hole different conversation.

[jonnielu]

I'm still having a tough time figuring this horse out.



I think there's almost no chance he (or anyone else) runs a huge figure on the synthetic track. You just don't see really big Beyers on sythetic very often the same way to don't see them on turf very often. There's figure issue that's a hole different conversation.

That may be because Beyer downgrades automatically, he seems to have gotten it in his head early on that the surface is more tiring then it actually is.

jdl

[cj]

That may be because Beyer downgrades automatically, he seems to have gotten it in his head early on that the surface is more tiring then it actually is.

jdl

We get it by now that you hate Beyer. What is even more clear is that you have no idea how the figures are made or understand any of the theory behind them. There are reasons the numbers come back lower, but none of them have anything to do with what Beyer has gotten into his head.

[jonnielu]

We get it by now that you hate Beyer. What is even more clear is that you have no idea how the figures are made or understand any of the theory behind them. There are reasons the numbers come back lower, but none of them have anything to do with what Beyer has gotten into his head.

You are missing something, Andy is my buddy.

jdl

[cj]

You are missing something, Andy is my buddy.

jdl

Great...have him explain the figure making process to you and why the figures come back lower on turf and synthetics.

[Tom]

And have him speak s-l-o-w-l-y.

[jonnielu]

Great...have him explain the figure making process to you and why the figures come back lower on turf and synthetics.

The explanations of 1979 were plenty.

jdl

[juanepstein]

after watching proudinsky today it looks like grand couturier would destroy big brown on the turf.

[ghostyapper]

after watching proudinsky today it looks like grand couturier would destroy big brown on the turf.

in fairness to proudinksy, 12 furlongs is beyond his liking. But I agree BB cannot compete with the best turf horses.

[SmartyJ]

in fairness to proudinksy, 12 furlongs is beyond his liking. But I agree BB cannot compete with the best turf horses.


And these good turf horses could not compete with Big Brown on the dirt. ;)