nobeyerspls
09-13-2008, 09:55 AM
Chalky - Shouldn't we tie this thread to some of the stuff in the General Handicapping section? Last week Jonnelieu came on as a guest handicapper and that was great.
Longball - The problem is that neither one of us uses pace figures or computer programs. You look at the Beyer figures but most of these guys are past that.
Chalky - It doesn't have to be technical stuff. What about cj's thread on those consecutive short priced horses at Woodbine? Are things better for me now and worse for you?
Longball - You're getting shorter prices on favorites and I'm finding it tougher to find those huge (+50-1) horses but the picks make 100-1 returns possible without those. If you singled Bobby Frankel's horse in the Northern Dancer last week, he paid less than ten bucks but the picks around him were big. Small fields are the cause and the weather doesn't help. How many ten plus turf fields are reduced to four or five entrants when the race comes off? But enough of that. What have you got this week?
Chalky - The 3rd at Woodbine has #1 Gloriously (8-5), a stakes competitor, in a conditioned allowance race. She towers over these and could be under even money. In Belmont's 3rd, #4 Pegasian finally breaks his maiden. He could bounce off that 80 beyer and still beat these. I had some turf picks but the ballgames were rained out last night so I think that they'll be off.
Longball - Nice to see you respecting surface. I've got #5 Royal Portrush (7/2) winning the opener at Woodbine. He gets blinkers on after a short rest and just needs to run to that bullet workout. In the 4th I'll take #3 Purple Midnight (12-1) over the consensus choice #1 Wovoka (9-5). She's been off since March but is working well for a trainer with decent stats with horses like this. Also gets lasix. In the 7th I'll give #6 Bold Comment (10-1) a chance to wake up against a field he can beat if he's right. In the 5th at Belmont, #6 Grizzly Peak (12-1) is a 2nd lifetime start runner who ran like a quarter horse (21.1) in his opener. Actually, this ties in to that thread about "fastest pace last race" started by Richie P. I too had some turf horses so the only other one of interest is #7 Formal Agreement (20-1) in the 3rd. This is a firster shipping in from Penn. I know that they're being a tad ambitious but he is working like a racehorse.
Chalky - So that's it. Doesn't look like were cashing for big bucks this week. I wish that you had one of those outrageous picks. Even if they just hit the board they pay more to show than mine do to win.
Longball - Hey, we've got the 3rd and 4th at Woodbine singled. The picks around those will be easy and inexpensive. I'll give you that outrageous one though. How about a horse who hasn't run since August 2007 and finished last of ten and twelve in his only starts, beaten over a combined 52 lengths. He's #6 Russian Devil (10-1) in the 1st at Turfway. He should be longer than that but it's a seven horse field. Gets 10k claimers on a new surface and is working well.
Chalky - I see that he even has a zero beyer. Ah, that's the old Longball we've come to know.
Longball - The problem is that neither one of us uses pace figures or computer programs. You look at the Beyer figures but most of these guys are past that.
Chalky - It doesn't have to be technical stuff. What about cj's thread on those consecutive short priced horses at Woodbine? Are things better for me now and worse for you?
Longball - You're getting shorter prices on favorites and I'm finding it tougher to find those huge (+50-1) horses but the picks make 100-1 returns possible without those. If you singled Bobby Frankel's horse in the Northern Dancer last week, he paid less than ten bucks but the picks around him were big. Small fields are the cause and the weather doesn't help. How many ten plus turf fields are reduced to four or five entrants when the race comes off? But enough of that. What have you got this week?
Chalky - The 3rd at Woodbine has #1 Gloriously (8-5), a stakes competitor, in a conditioned allowance race. She towers over these and could be under even money. In Belmont's 3rd, #4 Pegasian finally breaks his maiden. He could bounce off that 80 beyer and still beat these. I had some turf picks but the ballgames were rained out last night so I think that they'll be off.
Longball - Nice to see you respecting surface. I've got #5 Royal Portrush (7/2) winning the opener at Woodbine. He gets blinkers on after a short rest and just needs to run to that bullet workout. In the 4th I'll take #3 Purple Midnight (12-1) over the consensus choice #1 Wovoka (9-5). She's been off since March but is working well for a trainer with decent stats with horses like this. Also gets lasix. In the 7th I'll give #6 Bold Comment (10-1) a chance to wake up against a field he can beat if he's right. In the 5th at Belmont, #6 Grizzly Peak (12-1) is a 2nd lifetime start runner who ran like a quarter horse (21.1) in his opener. Actually, this ties in to that thread about "fastest pace last race" started by Richie P. I too had some turf horses so the only other one of interest is #7 Formal Agreement (20-1) in the 3rd. This is a firster shipping in from Penn. I know that they're being a tad ambitious but he is working like a racehorse.
Chalky - So that's it. Doesn't look like were cashing for big bucks this week. I wish that you had one of those outrageous picks. Even if they just hit the board they pay more to show than mine do to win.
Longball - Hey, we've got the 3rd and 4th at Woodbine singled. The picks around those will be easy and inexpensive. I'll give you that outrageous one though. How about a horse who hasn't run since August 2007 and finished last of ten and twelve in his only starts, beaten over a combined 52 lengths. He's #6 Russian Devil (10-1) in the 1st at Turfway. He should be longer than that but it's a seven horse field. Gets 10k claimers on a new surface and is working well.
Chalky - I see that he even has a zero beyer. Ah, that's the old Longball we've come to know.