Which Paceline

[shoelessjoe]

This is from a race tomorrow at Woodbine going 6 furlongs.When I first looked at it I liked the 2nd line back figuring last race was for exercise at 7 and today dropping back to 6.Also won coming off a 5 week vacation and maybe her last race was a bounce.Then I noticed this horse can run 7 and has run well before coming 2nd off a layoff.Any opinions?

[tleusin]

Unless there is an excuse not shown by the screen you posted, I do not know how you can excuse the lst race. This horse goes for lead in 1st call. This looks like a horse to avoid with the limited info here.

[tleusin]

Wrote 1st race meant last sorry lousy typist

[Zaf]

Hello Joe,

Seems like a need the lead type. I think pressure will come from 2 horses.
I think you subscribe to CJ's figures ? If I was playing here I would look to
a late runner, the #5 Hassayampa possibly,

[Light]

Note the E2's of the last 2 races. A 76 in the last and a 94 2 back.This is a major factor.Do you want your computer program to think this is a closer with its 97 LP in its last race or do you want your computer program to treat this horse as a speedster with its 94 E2 two races ago? This is an E5 style horse. It's pace figures should compliment its style

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I would average the 2nd and 5th.

[46zilzal]

Lines 2 and 4 show how this one handles strong pace pressure, so use her toughest contests to evaluate today although that last one seems to indicate some tailing off.

[Charlie D]

Line 2

[Tom Barrister]

You left out an important bit of information: the class of race tomorrow. It's a 32,000 claimer. There's a big difference at Woodbine between a 25k and 32k claimer. The latter gets a fair mix of horses dropping from Allowance races and higher claimers. This horse looks like the 25k claimer is her limit.

The horse has come back from layoffs, so that's no concern. Unless there's no other speed on the race, I don't see any reason to not use the last paceline, but I would be hard-pressed to bet this horse regardless.

[Charlie D]

Seems like a need the lead type


Look at 2

1- hd, 2nd - 1/2, 1 - 1

Look at Line 4

1- hd, 2nd - hd, 1 - hd

Look at Line 6

2nd - hd, 1 - hd




This horse is a Fighter and thats probably why he bombed in his last race ~ not enough time for recovery between races

[cmoore]

It looks like a rate job gone bad in last. Use 2nd race back paceline. She should fire out fast today from the 2 post. 3-1 ML already seems to low. Very competitive race. This looks like a race where your list your top 3 picks and bet the one who offers the most value..Or just pass..

[Charlie D]

I don't see any reason to not use the last paceline,


Hi Tom


Look at horses BL at 1c

Never more than 1/2 length from lead on all runs except the last.

This, along with the quick return tells you that the last run does not belong in this horse's " picture"

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,I didnt want to get into class here but basically even though they are running for 32 K it's a 25 k race.I dont consider horses who have won 40000 c nw 3l as contenders here.

[shoelessjoe]

Zaf,I do use CJ'S numbers but I like Jim Lehane's idea of using the race by race info that is provided so that's why I asked the question about which paceline to use.

[shoelessjoe]

here are the other horses who could be considered contenders ,i left out the 1 and 7

[shoelessjoe]

next

[shoelessjoe]

next one

[shoelessjoe]

last one

[shoelessjoe]

A few notes on these horses

#3 has only won 2 races

#4 only won 3 races broke in air last race

I dont consider 3 and 4 as contenders but 3 could be factor on front end

[shoelessjoe]

If possible please dont turn this into a match up lesson there are other places where you can do this.

[shoelessjoe]

PA Admin,I hope you dont mind me putting up pp's of the race without getting permission of the place where I got them from.I do use these and find they are very affordable to use.If you have a problem with it please delete.

[shoelessjoe]

I like the 6 horse here she can sit off the pace a bit and is defintely is in great form.

[Maxspa]

All,
There are some methods that a handicapper can utilize that standout!
One of those methods is found in HSH. The software user has the option not to pick pacelines. Dave Schwartz has come up with another solution! I've compared this idea by using other programs that I have and checked the results. Dave's approach was clearly better!
Perhaps Dave will read this and comment!
Max

[shoelessjoe]

I would be interested in hearing about it ,after using the form for 40 years it's pretty hard to accept a computers judgement for picking pacelines.

[maxwell]

A quick comment as I have to run out and help erect a very large iron fence in the rain :( ... when it's family what can you do?

I know this is a pace question which is not my game to date, but here goes :

A front-runner that can only win a very low odds

2 for last 12

Since I'm a value player I would only use three running lines:

13.10/1 10.50/1 and 7.60/1 : failed to hit the board in all three races?

All three races are routes; today's race is 6f. which means I would not use these lines - automatic pass for me.

The good news is most of this field are proven losers at the distance - except for the 1 and the 6

The 3 and 6 will give her a tough time up front.

[Pell Mell]

Because of the tough race in next to last off a layoff the 2 tailed off in last and will regress even further today. Off the board. I would place small bet on #4.

[Zaf]

I like the 6 horse here she can sit off the pace a bit and is defintely is in great form.

Nice call Shoeless, she ran big !

Z

[shoelessjoe]

Zaf,Thanks,CJ'S numbers and Jim Lehane's book helped as well.I know it didnt pay much but I will take anything I can get.Jeff

[Charlie D]

Good Skill Jeff