August Handle

[OTM Al]

An interesting article on DRF that refutes the idea of huge declines

http://www.drf.com/news/article/98130.html

So it does look like much of the "lost" handle from Saratoga and Del Mar was shifted to other tracks. Makes total sense to me given the terrible weather at the Spa and the reluctance to bet on the Del Mar poly after last year's experience. In the face of this summer's economy, the decline over last year doesn't seem too bad. I would have to say that such figures go against the thought that people didn't bet Saratoga because the quality of the races was down as money certainly wasn't shifted to some superior product.

[cj]

Could be those tracks weren't available on some ADWs people seem to prefer. Maybe the money is spreading to the tracks with a wide distribution of the signal.

[classhandicapper]

Could be those tracks weren't available on some ADWs people seem to prefer. Maybe the money is spreading to the tracks with a wide distribution of the signal.

If that's the case, it's probably a long term negative for Saratoga and Del Mar. Many people don't bet other tracks because they don't feel comfortable not knowing the specific angles, trainers, jockeys etc... If you give them a reason to bet those other tracks, they will learn, get comfortable, and perhaps not come back 100% even when their old primary tracks are available again.

[HEY DUDE]

I agree with CJ. I love DMR and when I go to the track I'll play. However, having to call in my bets, cause I cant do them online, is a total pain in the arse. They have to do a better job of making it easy to play.

[rrbauer]

Looking at one or two meets doesn't speak to the industry-wide situation.

Here's the "apples to apples" comparison from the article for the industry as a whole:

"On average, then, handle per race day in August this year was $1.96 million, whereas handle per race day in August of last year was $2.24 million, a decline this year of 12.5 percent."

[OTM Al]

Almost but not quite. Given the number of race days was up 11%, the reduction is only around roughly 1.5%. Again, most of the money just got shifted around.

[cj]

Almost but not quite. Given the number of race days was up 11%, the reduction is only around roughly 1.5%. Again, most of the money just got shifted around.

How could you have 11% more race days in August?

[lamboguy]

if the handle was so great, how come the prices at the keeneland sale is down so much?

[rrbauer]

Almost but not quite. Given the number of race days was up 11%, the reduction is only around roughly 1.5%. Again, most of the money just got shifted around.

People had more opportunities to bet. And, still they bet less.
You consider that a positive?

It's why the industry's insistence on more race days and year-round racing is killing the product.

[OTM Al]

I consider it a positive that they put most of their money somewhere else rather than not play at all. Instead of seeing Saratoga under water and putting their wallets back and going home, the majority seems to have bet on some other track. a 1.5% loss overall is much better than a 12.5% loss, don't you think?

A "race day" is a day at a track when racing is run. More tracks running make more race days.

"if the handle was so great, how come the prices at the keeneland sale is down so much?" Um.....purplemonkeydishwasher?

[cj]

I don't see how it can seen as anything but a big negative when two of the premier meets in the country are running for the entire month and handle declines across the board.

[OTM Al]

I see it as bad luck with the weather at Saratoga and a bad economy. Had Saratoga even come close to last year's numbers there would not have been any decrease in National numbers and this is ignoring Del Mar (this may be a negative if it was the poly and not the economy that kept them away). Saratoga was a swamp the first 2 weeks of August and much handle was lost right there. Its not great, but it's not nearly as bad as it looked when only Sar and Dmr numbers were examined.

[cj]

There is an awful lot of money being wasted on purses. If there were 11% more race days, and you are saying people betting just about the same amount of money, RACE LESS!!!

Tracks seem to think running more races increases total handle, but I'll put out there it does the opposite. Running more races creates many smaller, uncompetitive events. Maybe the fan is just deciding to pass more races.

[The Hawk]

There is an awful lot of money being wasted on purses. If there were 11% more race days, and you are saying people betting just about the same amount of money, RACE LESS!!!

Tracks seem to think running more races increases total handle, but I'll put out there it does the opposite. Running more races creates many smaller, uncompetitive events. Maybe the fan is just deciding to pass more races.

I agree with this 100%. Shows you how much power the horsemen and legislators have, which is what's really hurting.

I had a different take on this story:

With $1.5 billion bet on Thoroughbred horse racing through eight months of the year, how can anyone say the game is dying? How many billion dollar sports industries are there? No doubt, our game is not what it once was in terms of general interest, but with those numbers can it be dying? The argument that the older guys are dying off and are being replaced may be valid, but it was valid 20 years ago, too, and here we have a billion dollar industry.

I don't have any numbers, so I ask this seriously: Is upwards of $2 billion bet annually on baseball? Basketball? Of course, there's illegal money bet on all sports. But in terms of stats, isn't that a number that jumps out?

Quick return to topic: NO question the off tracks at Saratoga hurt overall handle, and I'd say that money DID NOT go elsewhere because the people that didn't bet Saratoga didn't even bother going to the track or betting at all that day, since weather was bad in a lot of places on the east coast in August.

[Pace Cap'n]

Each year at Super Bowl time, NFL officials go to great lengths to distance the league from the estimated $10 billion in gambling that it generates, not only in Las Vegas but also in offshore sports betting shops, in office and bar pools and among illegal bookies.

www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/31/sports/gambling.php (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/31/sports/gambling.php)

[OTM Al]

Quick return to topic: NO question the off tracks at Saratoga hurt overall handle, and I'd say that money DID NOT go elsewhere because the people that didn't bet Saratoga didn't even bother going to the track or betting at all that day, since weather was bad in a lot of places on the east coast in August.

You are right about the on track handle. Maybe a few people decided to head over to the raceway and play there instead, or tough it out on track, but making many plays to other tracks, but a big chunk of that was simply lost with the loss of the turf fields and the loss of bodies coming through the gate. The shifting though I would have to contend did have to happen on the off track sites. Otherwise we would have to believe that everyone else was up while Sar and Dmr were down for some other reason. My Occam's Razor arguement anyway....

Look, my whole point in this was the doom and gloom that we all heard right after the meets ended turned out overall to not be nearly as bad as it initially sounded. A decline is not good, true, but it wasn't near as catastrophic as some wanted us to believe. The "too many races" and "too many dates" arguements, while they may well be valid, are tangential to what I wanted to point out here

[The Hawk]

www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/31/sports/gambling.php (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/31/sports/gambling.php)

Football is a different animal. Nothing compares to it.

Have to love this quote from that story:

"We're trying to do whatever we can to make sure our games are not betting vehicles," said Joe Browne, an NFL spokesman.

Where would the NFL be without betting? Do they really think people are watching the Cardinals and the 49'ers for the beauty of it?

[rrbauer]

I agree with this 100%. Shows you how much power the horsemen and legislators have, which is what's really hurting.

I had a different take on this story:

With $1.5 billion bet on Thoroughbred horse racing through eight months of the year, how can anyone say the game is dying? How many billion dollar sports industries are there? No doubt, our game is not what it once was in terms of general interest, but with those numbers can it be dying? The argument that the older guys are dying off and are being replaced may be valid, but it was valid 20 years ago, too, and here we have a billion dollar industry.

I don't have any numbers, so I ask this seriously: Is upwards of $2 billion bet annually on baseball? Basketball? Of course, there's illegal money bet on all sports. But in terms of stats, isn't that a number that jumps out?

Quick return to topic: NO question the off tracks at Saratoga hurt overall handle, and I'd say that money DID NOT go elsewhere because the people that didn't bet Saratoga didn't even bother going to the track or betting at all that day, since weather was bad in a lot of places on the east coast in August.

If people were allowed to bet on sports in the 35, or so, states that they are allowed to bet on horse racing how much do you think would be bet on sports versus horse racing? IMO racing would be buried.

[rastajenk]

Unless it was the tracks that would be allowed to handle the sports betting.

[The Hawk]

If people were allowed to bet on sports in the 35, or so, states that they are allowed to bet on horse racing how much do you think would be bet on sports versus horse racing? IMO racing would be buried.

This is a typically negative attitude regarding racing.

You honestly think that those people in states where sports betting is illegal are NOT betting on football illegally? I live in a state where betting on football is illegal and know dozens of people who somehow are able to bet. I also know of at least a half dozen "wagering outlets".

The bottom line is, there are billions of dollars wagered on horse racing, regardless of the fact that we get 1/100th the coverage of sports like hockey and auto racing.