Bill Cullen
09-11-2008, 07:44 PM
A system based on item number one in this post was validated in '04 by a member of PaceAdvantage (the system was also posted in 2004):
Only look at horses that have 10 races showing in their pp's, AND, that have had the same trainer for their last 10 races.
From there I can make inferences about conscious moves the trainer has made with his horse over the last 10 races and what he might be doing with his horse in regards to today's race. Some of the things I look for:
1) Is the trainer bringing his horse back to today's race more quickly than he's done in the past 10 races? If so, what happened when the horse was brought back in the previously quickest turn-around time? Did the horse win at big odds? Did the horse produce a fig that was equal or greater than today's par? What were the rest of the attendant factors that accompanied the previously quickest turn-around time? Is the horse running today at big odds with some of the same accompanying "go" factors in place including, of course, today being the quickest turnaround time?
2) Do the horse's top two figs in its past 10 races correlate perfectly with the horse's best two finishes as measured in lengths behind, or if it was a winner, in lengths ahead of the rest of the field? If so, this indicates a trainer who can bring his horse into peak form, AND, appropriately spot him against the correct level of competition. If this happens to coincide with the quickest-turnaround times, then we have evidence that the trainer has consciously intended these situations and not just stumbled into them.
3) If the above conditions 1) and 2) obtain for a horse in today's race, is there additional evidence that this trainer can really and intentionally spot his horses when he chooses to do so. Another piece of supporting evidence would be a horse that, for example, shows two wins but only one other in-the-money finish in his last 10 races. This is using the Quirin formula
2(number of wins) - (number of places + number of shows)
where a value of 3+ indicates a horse with a disproportionate number of wins relative to the number of its places and shows. Quirin referred to this kind of horse as a 'betting tool' in his book, "Handicapping by Example."
To summarize what I look for ideally in a horse's profile but rarely get all the goodies together at the same time:
1) Horse shows at least 10 races with the same trainer for the last 10 races
2) Horse making quickest turnaround today. Ideally this turnaround time should be in excess of ten days.
3) Horse's 2 previously quickest turnarounds resulted in wins at today's par (or higher) at longshot odds.
4) The horse's top two highest figs match perfectly with the horse's best two finishes which were, ideally, wins.
5) Along with the two wins, the horse should either show no other in-the-money-finishes, or only one other in-the-money finish.
6) The horse should be going off at longshot odds today
I think the above approach (not a system since you rarely get all the factors together AND you still have to attend to 'capping fundamentals) works best against cheaper claimers at minor tracks where trainers with low win percentages need to cash some big bets once in a while.
I just realized that the above is my best stuff. The hell with it. Being open and sharing stuff has always been for me, and for most folks I suspect, a net positive.
Bill Cullen
Only look at horses that have 10 races showing in their pp's, AND, that have had the same trainer for their last 10 races.
From there I can make inferences about conscious moves the trainer has made with his horse over the last 10 races and what he might be doing with his horse in regards to today's race. Some of the things I look for:
1) Is the trainer bringing his horse back to today's race more quickly than he's done in the past 10 races? If so, what happened when the horse was brought back in the previously quickest turn-around time? Did the horse win at big odds? Did the horse produce a fig that was equal or greater than today's par? What were the rest of the attendant factors that accompanied the previously quickest turn-around time? Is the horse running today at big odds with some of the same accompanying "go" factors in place including, of course, today being the quickest turnaround time?
2) Do the horse's top two figs in its past 10 races correlate perfectly with the horse's best two finishes as measured in lengths behind, or if it was a winner, in lengths ahead of the rest of the field? If so, this indicates a trainer who can bring his horse into peak form, AND, appropriately spot him against the correct level of competition. If this happens to coincide with the quickest-turnaround times, then we have evidence that the trainer has consciously intended these situations and not just stumbled into them.
3) If the above conditions 1) and 2) obtain for a horse in today's race, is there additional evidence that this trainer can really and intentionally spot his horses when he chooses to do so. Another piece of supporting evidence would be a horse that, for example, shows two wins but only one other in-the-money finish in his last 10 races. This is using the Quirin formula
2(number of wins) - (number of places + number of shows)
where a value of 3+ indicates a horse with a disproportionate number of wins relative to the number of its places and shows. Quirin referred to this kind of horse as a 'betting tool' in his book, "Handicapping by Example."
To summarize what I look for ideally in a horse's profile but rarely get all the goodies together at the same time:
1) Horse shows at least 10 races with the same trainer for the last 10 races
2) Horse making quickest turnaround today. Ideally this turnaround time should be in excess of ten days.
3) Horse's 2 previously quickest turnarounds resulted in wins at today's par (or higher) at longshot odds.
4) The horse's top two highest figs match perfectly with the horse's best two finishes which were, ideally, wins.
5) Along with the two wins, the horse should either show no other in-the-money-finishes, or only one other in-the-money finish.
6) The horse should be going off at longshot odds today
I think the above approach (not a system since you rarely get all the factors together AND you still have to attend to 'capping fundamentals) works best against cheaper claimers at minor tracks where trainers with low win percentages need to cash some big bets once in a while.
I just realized that the above is my best stuff. The hell with it. Being open and sharing stuff has always been for me, and for most folks I suspect, a net positive.
Bill Cullen