11 entered in Monmouth Stakes

[sonnyp]

1 nightscape
2 hotstufandthensome
3 shakis
4 big brown
5 kiss the kid
6 proudinsky
7 drum major
8 get serious
9 fagedaboudit sal
10 ballonenostrikes
11 silver tree

any thoughts ?

[Stevie Belmont]

Its a nice field, a deeper field then anything he has faced. Shakis prefers a firm course. it looks like there will some moisture in it.

I don't think people can say, especially if he wins, he beat all stiffs..

Prodinsky, Silver Tree, Shakis, Hotsatuffandthensome, Kiss The Kid....Not a bad group at all.

Hope any rain holds off.

[MickJ26]

1 nightscape
2 hotstufandthensome
3 shakis
4 big brown
5 kiss the kid
6 proudinsky
7 drum major
8 get serious
9 fagedaboudit sal
10 ballonenostrikes
11 silver tree

any thoughts ?

Big Brown will probably be underlay odds.
Probably the horse with the best closing kick will take it.
Can Big Brown withstand the cavalry charge?
Big Brown is a must use in exotics, but, probably a play against on the win end.

[OTM Al]

I'd bet against in any wager. Here is what he beat in his turf win

Doctor Cal
Globalization
Hidden Glance
Incalzando
Motor Patrol
Trust N Dustan
Valadour
Why Can't I
Wotan

He may be of caliber now to do well on the turf, but there are some real contenders in this field. Might make for some good exotic payoffs. I think if he does 5th place in this field he did ok.

[cj]

I have the race on my site:

Monmouth Stakes (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Mth080913)

Condensed Version (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Mth080913C)

[joanied]

This is a good field, no surprises there.... and I can't wait:jump: :jump: I guess we've all been looking forward to this race for weeks....
1- Big Brown
2- Shakis
3- Silver Tree
4- Kiss the Kid
Now...all we gotta do is put a spell on Kent D. so that he don't screw up;)
Anyone know why Red Rocks isn't running in this one?

The Gazelle looks good too (I have a mare named Gazelle)
Music Note will probably go in the BC Distaff, so be interesting to see this race.
1-Music Note
2-Country Star
3-Hamsa

[onefast99]

I think KD will go to the front and walk the dog. I dont see him winning any other way.

[46zilzal]

I think KD will go to the front and walk the dog. I dont see him winning any other way.
If I had a horse in here, I would tell the rider to force him down on the rail. This one is nutso inside and will try to get out again I'm betting.

[GlenninOhio]

I pasted this Monmouth track diagram below from the free section of the DRF site - hopefully this is kosher. (I just slapped myself on the wrist in case it's not.)

I'm sure the vast majority of you are aware that this 9 furlong race on a 7 furlong turf course will start off a diagonal chute, with what looks like almost a 45 degree turn on to the main course and not long before the first of the two "normal" (but probably tight) turns.

Plenty of unusual stuff as far as the trip layout to make a horse who might be so inclined a little crazy.


Monmouth Park Track Layout









http://www.drf.com/images/mth_tc.gif http://www.drf.com/images/mtc.gif Main Track: One mile, oval.




http://www.drf.com/images/itc.gif Turf Course: Seven Furlongs.

[Nacumi]

If the weather forecast holds, the turf will definitely have some "cut" in it.
It's hard for closers to actually close when the pace is soft like the course.
Front runners who get loose on the lead can win frequently when the ground has give because the closers end up spinning their wheels in the stretch.
I doubt if Big Brown will "put them to sleep" if he gets the lead, but who knows? The field has some salty turfers in there.:confused:

[Imriledup]

Is there anyone here, and you can raise your hand, who is betting ON Big Brown in this race?

I can't imagine anyone who really knows the game that isn't licking their chops to bet large against the brownstain.

If you are betting ON BB in this race, let us know, make yourself known, we promise, we won't make fun of you. :D

[onefast99]

BB will go to the lead, and yes he has a solid rider who can put the field to sleep early on and not be able to catch him in the stretch as he speeds off to a win. Will I bet him, why not? BB can get the perfect trip, some of the horses who are entered in this race who dont belong will be well behind BB so they wont cause him any trouble at all.

[BombsAway Bob]

I was at "The Top of the Stretch" @ Saratoga Last Labor Day when BIG BROWN Smoked'Em in his debut. BUT, it was on ROCK HARD TURF! He was absolutely on cruise control in that race, & he looked great!(Check my photo of him in the post parade that day on mymyspace,link below) With lower than acceptable odds based on his reputation, playing against him Saturday seems a certainty!

[PaceAdvantage]

I can't imagine anyone who really knows the game that isn't licking their chops to bet large against the brownstain.Do you really think BB is going to be a such a short price that some of the other logical contenders are going to offer insane value? I don't....but I'll have to wait and check the tote to be sure...

BTW, is it just me, or does anyone else find it odd that BB only earned a 90 Beyer Speed Fig in his one and only turf race....1:40 1/5 for 8.5 furlongs while winning the race by 11.25 lengths.....90?

I don't have the track record for 8.5 on the Mellon Turf handy, but I did find that 1:40 flat is the current best time in the last three years, according to DRF....

[ghostyapper]

3 fillies ran that same distance that day in 1.40 flat in a non graded stakes race

[sammy the sage]

""Shakis prefers a firm course. ""

""It's hard for closers to actually close when the pace is soft like the course.""

Did EITHER one of YOU see Shakis's LAST race :lol: :D :faint:

[onefast99]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]Do you really think BB is going to be a such a short price that some of the other logical contenders are going to offer insane value? I don't....but I'll have to wait and check the tote to be sure...

BTW, is it just me, or does anyone else find it odd that BB only earned a 90 Beyer Speed Fig in his one and only turf race....1:40 1/5 for 8.5 furlongs while winning the race by 11.25 lengths.....90?

I don't have the track record for 8.5 on the Mellon Turf handy, but I did find that 1:40 flat is the current best time in the last three years, according to DRF....[/QUOTe
So no one on this thread has asked why did Brad Thomas put BB's odds at 3-5? I wonder why any handicapper would do odds that low where you have a 3yo going against older more accomplished horses on the turf. Something isnt right with that short price.

[Stevie Belmont]

A 90 1st time beyer for a 2 year old is a big number....

[Hosshead]

Will this race be on T.V. ? Time/network ?

[Marshall Bennett]

TVG is suppose to cover the race . Houston area will likely be without power , won't see anything . :confused:

[point given]

you are right. outside pps are up against it out of the chute at monmouth. i don't know Hotstuffs current form, but he likes the course and has speed to be up front alongside BB. Turf course should be in good shape as it hasnot been used all week


I pasted this Monmouth track diagram below from the free section of the DRF site - hopefully this is kosher. (I just slapped myself on the wrist in case it's not.)

I'm sure the vast majority of you are aware that this 9 furlong race on a 7 furlong turf course will start off a diagonal chute, with what looks like almost a 45 degree turn on to the main course and not long before the first of the two "normal" (but probably tight) turns.

Plenty of unusual stuff as far as the trip layout to make a horse who might be so inclined a little crazy.


Monmouth Park Track Layout











http://www.drf.com/images/mth_tc.gif http://www.drf.com/images/mtc.gif Main Track: One mile, oval.





http://www.drf.com/images/itc.gif Turf Course: Seven Furlongs.

[point given]

Looks like 3 may be scratched to run at Philly instead.

" Silver Tree has wound up in post 11, however, and is cross-entered to Saturday's PTHA President's Cup S. at Philadelphia Park. Eddie Castro has been named to ride him at Monmouth. Also cross-entered to the Philly feature are Grade 3 scorer DRUM MAJOR (Dynaformer) and stakes veteran BALLONENOSTRIKES (Lost Soldier)."

[LottaKash]

I am still not certain what to make of BB....In the Derby, given what was on the table at the time, I thought the the 6-dollar number was a genuine low price overlay.....but, since the Belmont fiasco, my eyebrow is still raised, as to whether he is the real-deal or not.....On paper he appears so, as every horse has a right to be down on his game from time to time, but is he the real-deal ?

Is Barry Bonds the real-deal ?....Is Marion Jones the real-deal ?...etc.

best,

[Robert Fischer]

GO BIG BROWN! :ThmbUp:


Big Brown will CRUSH these guys.

The best horse is usually the best horse on any surface that he takes to.
AND Brown loves the turf.

Go Big Brown.

Proudinsky is an overated dud. Shakis is inconsistent. Silver Tree is solid - but not spectacular.


:jump:

------------
besides, if you plan to play against, why "shout" about it? ;)

[toetoe]

onefast,

BB may be monstrous enough on sod anyway, but KDez is the WORST dogwalker in jockeydom. He'd have to PAY ME to walk my dog. :ThmbDown:

[The Hawk]

So no one on this thread has asked why did Brad Thomas put BB's odds at 3-5? I wonder why any handicapper would do odds that low where you have a 3yo going against older more accomplished horses on the turf. Something isnt right with that short price.

He didn't make him 3/5, he made him 2-1 ML favorite.

[DRIVEWAY]

Proudinsky on a Yielding surface will be tough to keep out of the winner's cicle. Problem is the price. At 5/2 - 7/2 is he worth a wager?

[BombsAway Bob]

Wow, what a DEAL! I know I can't wait to chuck in $750 for a PHOTO w/ K.D.'s Hancock!
http://wt.dlisys.com/img/TVG11262/MonmouthBigBrown_eblast.jpg (http://wt.dlisys.com/ph/rdx.asp?j=r&q=w1j4b4pTVG11262170017)AWARE - Always Wager Responsibly - National Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700. Must be 21 years old and live in

[Robert Fischer]

He didn't make him 3/5, he made him 2-1 ML favorite.

2-1 is too high for a ml for Big Brown.

Brad Thomas does not understand the concept that the morning lines maker is not supposed to handicap the horses - he is only supposed to handicap the CROWD.

poor job here.

The Public is somewhere around even-money with Big Brown. He will go off between Even Money and 2-1 at this point.

was he the guy responsible for the 2007 Breeder's Cup Morning line ? That card had a bunch of similar mistakes.

:)

[Tom]

Wow, what a DEAL! I know I can't wait to chuck in $750 for a PHOTO w/ K.D.'s Hancock!

AWARE - Always Wager Responsibly - National Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700. Must be 21 years old and live in

Hey, here's a great promo idea for TVG.....

Big Brown (Horse), Big Mouth (Matt), Big Bore (Todd)....

Big Deal !

On TVG Saturday

:lol::lol::lol:

[The Hawk]

2-1 is too high for a ml for Big Brown.

Brad Thomas does not understand the concept that the morning lines maker is not supposed to handicap the horses - he is only supposed to handicap the CROWD.

poor job here.

The Public is somewhere around even-money with Big Brown. He will go off between Even Money and 2-1 at this point.

was he the guy responsible for the 2007 Breeder's Cup Morning line ? That card had a bunch of similar mistakes.

:)

Brad understands the concerpt well, from what I've seen. While I'd agree with you that this particular ML is too high there are few better at making a ML on a day-to-day basis than Brad Thomas.

[joanied]

if I was betting $$...it'd be on BB... despite the really wierd chute design for the turf course, despite some pretty nice turf horses, despite his mid pack gate #, despite Kent D, regardless of track condition... Big Brown wins.

Big :jump: Brown :jump:

[Stevie Belmont]

Garcia will stay at Belmont instead of ride Shakis...

[Frank Angst]

I think his running style fits for this surface and field and I think he's sitting on his best. That's enough for me to bet on him.

[Stevie Belmont]

It has started to rain through out the greater metro area and down the shore. It's been a light to moderate steady rain for a few hours alreay. And it's supposed to rain for at least another 5-6 hours.

[point given]

Will they take the Turf race off the turf and have BB do a public workout race vs multiple scratches in a walkover race ? The turf course was already soft and they were off the turf there all week except today.

[point given]

" "We made it very clear that this race is a prep race," Iavarone added. "We're not looking for his best race here, we're looking for his best race in October. . . . We could run second in this race like Curlin did [in the Man o' War] and be happy knowing we're going to move forward."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/98162.html

[46zilzal]

" "We made it very clear that this race is a prep race," Iavarone added. "We're not looking for his best race here, we're looking for his best race in October. . . . We could run second in this race like Curlin did [in the Man o' War] and be happy knowing we're going to move forward."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/98162.html
His connections are REALLY going to need it too.

[The Hawk]

Will they take the Turf race off the turf and have BB do a public workout race vs multiple scratches in a walkover race ? The turf course was already soft and they were off the turf there all week except today.

Actually, the course was "firm" today, before the rains came.

[Charlie D]

we're looking for his best race in October


If Henrythenavigator, Duke of Marmalade, New Approach come over and perform same on Pro ride as they do on Turf, Big Brown will need to run his best ever race Mr Iavarone


So make sure Dutters gets him spot on

[joanied]

Garcia will stay at Belmont instead of ride Shakis... HHHMMMMM..that's interesting...maybe Shakis won't be the threat I figured he be to BB.

[joanied]

Actually, the course was "firm" today, before the rains came.

That's what I read....but someone that's living there would know the weather...I also read they haven't used the Turf course all week.

Rain,:mad: rain...go away!!!

[GlenninOhio]

From Bris pp's:

Dutrow dirt to turf: 13 wins from 103 starters

Overall winning at 24% this year.

Could not find any stats on "dirt to 3-turn turf races".

[point given]

HHHMMMMM..that's interesting...maybe Shakis won't be the threat I figured he be to BB.

garcia has alot of good mounts at belmont saturday in stakes , I wouldnot give it much traction on him not riding Shakis.Frankel is saying Proudinsky is all healed up and likes cut.

PS - ny mets game rained out tonight, very soggy in ny metro area. Squish

[The Hawk]

That's what I read....but someone that's living there would know the weather...I also read they haven't used the Turf course all week.

Rain,:mad: rain...go away!!!

How about someone who was actually there?

[McFrank]

Thanks for sharing. I have never seen a print out like the one you provided. I also wonder why the race is not graded. McFrank.

[OTM Al]

Not graded because they just basically invented it. Grading takes 3 years (except with the first 8 BC races) Its likely a one off. Maybe they will keep the race, but the purse won't be near as big in the future

[Irish Boy]

Not graded because they just basically invented it. Grading takes 3 years (except with the first 8 BC races) Its likely a one off. Maybe they will keep the race, but the purse won't be near as big in the future

Chances are they keep it at $200,000 and it becomes the "Big Brown Stakes" if he wins and the Monmouth stakes if he loses. Just a guess.

[joanied]

How about someone who was actually there?

That's what I meant....sorry, just looked at your post again....and happy to know that at least at that time, turf was firm...hope it stays that way.

I assume you'll be there today....lucky man!!

[alhattab]

At Monmouth the 4th is off the turf- scratched down to 5 horse field. 9th is on and turf is rated Good. I can't tell about the 10th- lots of scratches but to nobody's surprise Mth website not clear. Elvis Trujillo got hurt yesterday and is off all his mounts. Silver Tree is running at Monmouth. Not sure about Drum Major or Manning entry (at this time not scratched at either track). Elliott rides Kiss The Kid. Kiss The Kid may be tough in here and should sit a nice trip laying off Get Serious and Big Brown (I think KD has to send).

Belmont Soft-only the Noble Damsel is on.

[alhattab]

Mth 10th is off turf. Rail is on hedge- should favor inside positioning big time

[joanied]

garcia has alot of good mounts at belmont saturday in stakes , I wouldnot give it much traction on him not riding Shakis.Frankel is saying Proudinsky is all healed up and likes cut.

PS - ny mets game rained out tonight, very soggy in ny metro area. Squish

OH...well, Shakis is fairly inconsistant, but still posses a threat....Frankel is always scary on the turf, and his saying that about Proudinsky makes me worry more....I really want to see BB take this race...I know Ivarone says they don't need to win it...DUH....but I still want Bb to win.

Bummer about the games...watched the weather back there this morning and they didn't show any rain over jersey....but if you're wet in NY, I assume it must be wet across the river.

go, BB go!!

PG....have a good one:)

[toetoe]

How about The Big Brown Jug ? :rolleyes:

[Stevie Belmont]

Yeah...Big Brown took them all the way on a mooshy turf...I tought he ran great. All the fractions were his and held off the charge...I did not think he was gonna fend them off. He would not be denied, they were never gonna get him. Props to Big Brown

Pictures on my homepage, more later............

[Tom]

How about The Big Brown Jug ? :rolleyes:

:lol::lol::lol::ThmbUp::lol::lol::lol:

[sonnyp]

he certainly was tested today and courageously passed the test. i thought he woul never hold off frankel's horse in the deep stretch, but that one wouldn't have gone bye had they gone around again.

he certainly is a very special horse in spite of all the drama. just think, a year ago he breaks his maiden at first asking going long on the turf at saratoga. he changes hands and dissapears until the spring of this year. he reels off consecutive wins in an allowance,florida and kentucky derbies, then the preakness.his hoof busts open, followed by the belmont fiasco. at times he looks sore, hanging on that left line and drifting severely out in the stretch and other times he looks invincible.

he comes back to win the haskel, while not looking good doing it, he gets the job done. today he wins against a "nice" group of older horses back on the turf and i assume its on to the breeders cup.

i can't imagine anyone not being impressed with his heart, versitilty, and ability. remember, today was only his eigth lifetime start.

regardless of what he does next month, imho, he's overcome alot more than most and is a remarkable racehorse.

its really a shame the economics of the business doesn't allow an animal like this to mature, rest up and come back next year for the races like the donn, whitney, jocky club, mass cap, etc., etc.

[onefast99]

I think KD will go to the front and walk the dog. I dont see him winning any other way.I couldnt bet him at those odds, too many good ones in this race. Great ride by KD.

[onefast99]

Yeah...Big Brown took them all the way on a mooshy turf...I tought he ran great. All the fractions were his and held off the charge...I did not think he was gonna fend them off. He would not be denied, they were never gonna get him. Props to Big Brown

Pictures on my homepage, more later............
That was a real test, Proudinsky and Shakis were no slouches. He did what was expected of him by everyone, he won. Are you going to MP today?

[point given]

Yeah...Big Brown took them all the way on a mooshy turf...I tought he ran great. All the fractions were his and held off the charge...I ...........

Correction on the turf condition according to KD;

"The turf course was labeled good, though Desormeaux said it was closer to firm."
Curious though that the nitwits in charge took the other 2 turf races off the turf thereby ruining the card. with 2 weeks to the end of the meet. :eek: :bang:

[cj]

It is pretty obvious by the times of the race the course was pretty firm. I don't think we really need Kent to confirm this.

[onefast99]

It is pretty obvious by the times of the race the course was pretty firm. I don't think we really need Kent to confirm this.
It did take a lot of water but on Friday the dust was flying all over the place just prior to the rains coming in so it was pretty dry. Taking the other races off the turf was probably a good idea as the chunks of turf were really flying around during the race. look at the replay you cant miss it.

[joanied]

he certainly was tested today and courageously passed the test. i thought he woul never hold off frankel's horse in the deep stretch, but that one wouldn't have gone bye had they gone around again.

he certainly is a very special horse in spite of all the drama. just think, a year ago he breaks his maiden at first asking going long on the turf at saratoga. he changes hands and dissapears until the spring of this year. he reels off consecutive wins in an allowance,florida and kentucky derbies, then the preakness.his hoof busts open, followed by the belmont fiasco. at times he looks sore, hanging on that left line and drifting severely out in the stretch and other times he looks invincible.

he comes back to win the haskel, while not looking good doing it, he gets the job done. today he wins against a "nice" group of older horses back on the turf and i assume its on to the breeders cup.

i can't imagine anyone not being impressed with his heart, versitilty, and ability. remember, today was only his eigth lifetime start.

regardless of what he does next month, imho, he's overcome alot more than most and is a remarkable racehorse.

its really a shame the economics of the business doesn't allow an animal like this to mature, rest up and come back next year for the races like the donn, whitney, jocky club, mass cap, etc., etc.

Sonnyp...WELL:ThmbUp: SAID.... you said everything I would about Big Brown...I've watched the race several times now and still have a huge smile on my face...I'm sooooooo happy:jump:
BB did get a touch rank when KD was getting him to relax, and he did seem to want to drift out coming out of the final turn...he doesn't like the rail, so he showed another touch of courage in running there....and Kent didn't have to shake him up when Proudinsky came up to them...you are correct...BB wasn't going to let that other horse get by him...
IT WAS BEAUTIFUL....Big Brown :1: all the way!!