oddsmaven
09-11-2008, 10:12 AM
Don't know if this idea has already been postulated but I had a thought & wonder if it sounds effective...
There are races where there may be a single horse as a certain "type" or there may be multiple horses within that race...for instance, in a claiming race, there may be a lone dropdown -or two or more...my belief is that the handicappers who are drawn to dropdowns would bet the lone dropper pretty heavy as it's their only choice (causing him to be overbet) or conversly leave the odds decent when some of them go on one and others bet the other class drops...hence if you can discern which one is stronger, you're wagering into a better situation.
Other examples would be baby races with mostly first time starters, wheras if one horse ran okay he would be overbet by those many bettors insisting on experience & some of the contending first timers with bettable angles might have stronger value than usual... - or a race with only one shipper...again, you'd have a segment of the bettors that prefer shippers possibly overbetting that single horse and it would be wise to avoid the shipper or bet against.
These situations and others may not amount to much of an edge but it could be an added tool to avoid bad plays or help find good ones.
There are races where there may be a single horse as a certain "type" or there may be multiple horses within that race...for instance, in a claiming race, there may be a lone dropdown -or two or more...my belief is that the handicappers who are drawn to dropdowns would bet the lone dropper pretty heavy as it's their only choice (causing him to be overbet) or conversly leave the odds decent when some of them go on one and others bet the other class drops...hence if you can discern which one is stronger, you're wagering into a better situation.
Other examples would be baby races with mostly first time starters, wheras if one horse ran okay he would be overbet by those many bettors insisting on experience & some of the contending first timers with bettable angles might have stronger value than usual... - or a race with only one shipper...again, you'd have a segment of the bettors that prefer shippers possibly overbetting that single horse and it would be wise to avoid the shipper or bet against.
These situations and others may not amount to much of an edge but it could be an added tool to avoid bad plays or help find good ones.