all we have to do is win 19% more then the public!!!

[formula_2002]

“Exploiting the errors made by the handicapping public to an extent which provides us with the level of profit and consistency we require."

A quote from behind one of PA's posted banners.


Sounds cool. Now lets look behind the ice house.

We’ll look at the most prevalent odd group, >= 5/2 and < 7/2.

9850 horses 21.26 % winners and a loss of 17%

Average odds played = 2.95-1

Average winning odds =2.936

Actual winners were 2095

Expected winners (in order to break even) were 2506 horses.
(Expected winners = sum of 1/ (odds+1))

So just to outperform the public and break even, you would have to pick 411 more winners then the public, for a 25.44 win% (2095+411)/9850.

Verifying the above:

Edge=odds X win% - (1-win %)
Edge = 2.936 x .2544 – (1-.2544)
Edge =0

Our break even win % 25.44 / public win % 21.26 = 119%
So ALL WE HAVE TO DO is win 19 % more times then the public just to break even.

How realistic is that?

[superfecta]

I think all that means is picking a winning horse may not be all some think it takes to make a profit.:)

[kenwoodall]

I bet to show a lot so i do not have to beat All the public- just the drunken gambling addicts!
A lot of these "board members" win because they bet when the odds are on their side. That is how i bet. I picked 7 of 8 winners yesterday at GGF because i know the track; leading rider is on 3-day suspension; favorites were on the rail. 97% roi and it figured mathematicaly.
You have to be angle to look at many angles and factors and figure out when the numbers indicate a bet.
2 years ago my horse paid $4.00 as it won its 5th race in a row at Hollywod 5 1/2f, $10,00.00 turf. It should have been lower than even but bettors did not believe in it. Then i won on it at $40,00.00 at 20-1!
I often get to bet on 1/2 brothers and sisters of Tiznow at 6-1.
I am not and expert but if you email me at kensav@webtv.net and tell me how you handicap i may be able to give you suggestions. Here is 1:
If you see a running line where a horse ran even after a bad start and then is dropped, bet it!!