Rating Form

[jeebus1083]

This is something that I am experimenting with on paper. It's partially inspired by the Quirin Speed Point method. The reason I want to translate aspects of form into points is so that I can generate a fair odds line based on form. I do however want to eventually incorporate class adjustments and adjustments for speed and pace into this, so that I can boil the numbers down to a pretty accurate odds line. Feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Current form is one of the strongest factors in horse racing. Most horse’s form cycles are brief, as their physical condition is always changing due to a number of infinite factors.

Last Running Line

All Horses start with 1 point. The maximum that can be earned is 8 points.
Award 1 point if the horse was up-close (about 2 lengths in sprints, 3 lengths in routes) at the Pace Call (the ½ mile point in a sprint, the ¾ mile point in a route).
Award 1 point if the horse was up-close at the stretch call.
Award 1 BONUS point if the horse is up-close at all stages of the race.
Award 1 point if the horse finishes in the money or was up-close at the finish.
Award 2 BONUS points for a win; award an additional 1 BONUS point for a “Big Win” (a win of about 3 lengths or more.
If the horse finishes within a ½ length or less of the race winner, award the horse the 2 BONUS points for a win, so not to penalize a near-winning effort.
If the horse does not finish on the board or is not up-close at any stage of the race, but finishes in the top half of the field, the horse is allowed to keep the 1 point awarded at the start of analysis.
If the horse remains in the bottom half of the field throughout the race without being up-close at any call, the initial 1 point awarded at the start of analysis is deducted.
If the race occurred between 45 and 90 days ago, award ½ credit (ex: if a horse is awarded 8 points at this stage, divide that number by 2 to get a final number of 4).
If the race occurred more than 90 days ago, the last running line is too stale to rate accurately and NO CREDIT is to be given at this stage.

Rating Layoffs

All horses start with 1 point. The maximum that can be earned is 8 points.
Award 1 point if the horse shows a series of consistent (fairly even spaced) workouts leading up to the return race.
Award 1 point if the horse shows a 4F move within 7-10 days of the return race.
Award 1 point if the horse shows a 5F move within 2 weeks of the return race.
Award 1 BONUS point if the horse shows a workout within 7-10 days of the return race that ranks in the top 1/3rd on that day’s worktab. If the horse shows a “bullet” workout, award an additional 1 BONUS point.
Award 1 point if the trainer wins 15% or more with horses coming off of a similar layoff.
Award 1 BONUS point if the ROI meets or exceeds around $1.70.
IMPORTANT: USE COMMON SENSE WHEN STATS ARE LIMITED! If the sample size is too small, trust your instincts. If the statistic cannot be verbalized, DO NOT AWARD THE POINTS!
If the horse shows no works or meets none of the requirements, the initial 1 point awarded is deducted.
If the layoff is between 45 and 90 days, award ½ credit in combination with the horse’s most recent running line prior to the layoff.
If the layoff is more than 90 days, the horse can be awarded up to the maximum amount of points allowed since there is no recent running line that can be accurately rated.

Previous Races

Since the most recent running line is usually the most accurate measure of current form, we will give less weight to the horse’s previous races. Rather than rate the horse on various factors like we did while evaluating the horse’s last race, we will be rating the horse’s finishing position in his past races.
To evaluate previous races, use the 2nd and 3rd previous races, provided that the horse is not returning off of a layoff of more than 90 days. If the horse is coming back from said layoff, we will only evaluate the two races prior to the layoff (the last and next-to-last running lines).
Award 1 point for each race that the horse finished in the top half of the field or was up-close at the finish.
Award 1 BONUS point for each race that the horse finished on the board. If the horse was the winner, award an additional 1 BONUS point.
If the horse fails to meet these requirements, no points are awarded.

Extra Credit for Improving/Peaking Form (DO NOT AWARD OFF A LAYOFF!)

Horses showing these characteristics in their most recent PPs can be awarded single bonus points based on the following:
A win or big non-winning effort (subjective) off the layoff, followed by a quick comeback (within 10 days of the last race). This is especially powerful if the class is right and the trainer is sharp.
3rd start off a layoff if improvement was shown 2nd time back.
A sustained mid-race rally last out which fell short (flattened or hung in stretch).
Big Win followed by a rise in class for today’s race.
A “Sprint-Sprint-Route” or “Sprint-Route-Route” pattern off a recent layoff.

Extra Credit for Workouts/Recency (DO NOT AWARD OFF A LAYOFF!)

Horses showing these characteristics in their most recent PPs can be awarded single bonus points based on the following:
A race within 21 days and shows either:
a 4F or 5F bullet within 2 weeks of today’s race.
or
an extremely fast 4F or 5F workout (subjective).
Consistent workouts evenly spaced in the interim.

First-Time Starters – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

All horses start with 1 point. The maximum that can be earned is 8 points.
Award 1 point if the horse shows a series of consistent (fairly even spaced) workouts leading up to the debut.
Award 1 point if the horse shows a 4F move within 7-10 days of the debut.
Award 1 point if the horse shows a 5F move within 2 weeks of the debut.
Award 1 BONUS point if the horse shows a workout within 7-10 days of the debut that ranks in the top 1/3rd on that day’s worktab. If the horse shows a “bullet” workout, award an additional 1 BONUS point.
Award 1 point if the trainer wins 15% or more with first-time starters.
Award 1 BONUS point if the ROI meets or exceeds around $1.70.
IMPORTANT: USE COMMON SENSE WHEN STATS ARE LIMITED! If the sample size is too small, trust your instincts. If the statistic cannot be verbalized, DO NOT AWARD THE POINTS!
If the horse shows no works or meets none of the requirements, the initial 1 point awarded is deducted.

First-Time Starters – MAIDEN CLAIMING

The procedure is the same as with Maiden Special Weight first-timers, except that the trainer factor will be rated based upon success (15% or more winning percentage) with first-time starting maiden claimers rather than just overall first-time starters.

Horses with less than 3 running lines

If the horse is a first-time starter, award the full credit for being a first-time starter, and then award ½ credit twice. (ex: if a FTS earns 8 points, they would be awarded the 8+4+4 for a total of 16 points.
If the horse is a second-time starter, award the full points for the most recent running line and then award ½ credit twice. (ex: if a 2nd time starter earned 8 points for his last start, he would be awarded 8+4+4 for a total of 16 points. Also, staying within the parameters of recency, if the horse is making his 2nd start between 45 and 90 days, award ½ credit for the last race and give the full ½ credit twice. (ex: a 2nd time starter making his 2nd career start off a 45-90 day layoff that earned 8 points would be awarded 4+4+4 for a total of 12 points. If the 2nd career start is made more than 90 days since the debut, no credit is awarded for the most recent running line and you have to use the procedure for rating layoffs, while applying the same principles.
If the horse is a 3rd-time starter, give full credit from the most recent running line and double the rating from the debut race using the same procedure as mentioned under “Previous Races”.

Horses eased/pulled up/lost rider/fell last out

Be subjective and consider what the horse did during the race prior to the trouble.

[aaron]

I don't think you can make an accurate line without taking the trainer into consideration.

[Sinner369]

How about other factors?..........like too many good races?.....horse is on the down swing..........good form but the horse is tired and due for a sub par race?

How do you measure that?

[jeebus1083]

What would you suggest?

How about other factors?..........like too many good races?.....horse is on the down swing..........good form but the horse is tired and due for a sub par race?

How do you measure that?

[traynor]

It looks like you are on the right track. The only factor you might consider modifying is the notion that the last race is the most representative. There are so many situations in which the last race can be dismissed as a training exercise, or a "less than optimal effort for reasons unknown" that your accuracy might improve by being a bit more flexible in which race you rate.

If the last race is not competitive--one in which there was an honest effort to win the race--it can safely be ignored without diminishing accuracy. It is the entries with good second or third back races, good current form, essentially coasting in one or even two races to set up for a real shot at winning.

No chicanery is involved. If an entry happens to be in a race with another entry that can blow it away, many trainers will scratch out of the race or tell the jockey not to burn out their horse trying to get third or fourth. Quirin observed years ago that every close-up finish was an indication of an entry that had tried to win and failed. You may find your accuracy (and bottom line) improve with a bit more flexible approach to which race you are using as a basis for your evaluation.

Good Luck! :)

[plainolebill]

You may want to consider not giving the 2 bonus points to a horse that finishes <1/2 length of the winner if it has twice as many 2nd place finishes as wins.

[bobphilo]

I like the idea of trying to quantify form, but much of your criteria is slanted towards towards finding early speed rather than late speed as opposed to form. No question that early speed is important, but your methodology seems best suited to see if an early speed type is in form, rather than isolating the horse's current form regardless of running style as a seperate factor.

Bob

[jeebus1083]

What would you suggest? I'm think along the same lines as you are here... I'm listening...

I like the idea of trying to quantify form, but much of your criteria is slanted towards towards finding early speed rather than late speed as opposed to form. No question that early speed is important, but your methodology seems best suited to see if an early speed type is in form, rather than isolating the horse's current form regardless of running style as a seperate factor.

Bob

[jeebus1083]

I see that I'm the post of the day... what an honor :)

[jotb]

1-With maidens (not a first time starter), how do you handle a maiden that ran twice on dirt and now switches to the turf?

2- What running line will you use if the horse has been running on dirt and now is running on the poly (never ran on poly before)?

3- What about when horses switch racetracks?

4- How will you treat a horse that was recently claimed from a 25% trainer to a trainer that strikes at only 5% if it's last race was a 5 length win wire to wire?

5- Do you add a point for a horse that finished 3rd but was beaten 15 lengths in the race?

6- Does it make sense for a horse to lose the initial point if the horse encountered obstacles from the beginning of the race that never recovered and finish up the track?

7- With first time starters it's very possible to accumulate the 8 points but how do you treat the horses pedigree? What if the horse is bred for turf going long (mile or over) and is running first time out on the dirt going 6F?


Joe

[jeebus1083]

Wow... I guess there are some things that I overlooked. However, may I add three things...

1) If a horse coming off of a big win is claimed by a 5% conditioner, unless they are the cheapest of the cheap, they probably won't "change" overnight. I have always felt that jockeys and trainers are an overrated, overbet factor, and to discredit a horse's good race or races because he's suddenly in a bad barn, might not be too smart. Of course, many times it's going to depend on the length of layoff.

2) Pedigree, IMO, is vastly overrated. Just because a horse is "supposed" to love grass, mud, or win early doesn't mean that they necessarily will. Horses are individuals, and not all develop to perfection.

3) Most of the time, a horse that encounters obstacles early on in a race makes their own trouble. There are consistent "hard-luck" horses who have trouble lines nearly every single race, yet each time out, appear to be sitting on a big one. Obvious trouble often gets overbet at the windows. It's the subtle things that are not so obvious that get underbet.

Anyway, enough of my prattle. What would you suggest?

1-With maidens (not a first time starter), how do you handle a maiden that ran twice on dirt and now switches to the turf?

2- What running line will you use if the horse has been running on dirt and now is running on the poly (never ran on poly before)?

3- What about when horses switch racetracks?

4- How will you treat a horse that was recently claimed from a 25% trainer to a trainer that strikes at only 5% if it's last race was a 5 length win wire to wire?

5- Do you add a point for a horse that finished 3rd but was beaten 15 lengths in the race?

6- Does it make sense for a horse to lose the initial point if the horse encountered obstacles from the beginning of the race that never recovered and finish up the track?

7- With first time starters it's very possible to accumulate the 8 points but how do you treat the horses pedigree? What if the horse is bred for turf going long (mile or over) and is running first time out on the dirt going 6F?


Joe

[ranchwest]

You might consider:

1) investigating William Scott's definition of "big win" (in fact, read Scott's books thoroughly)

2) a way to mesh speed/pace with position so as to better evaluate class jumpers/droppers rather than focusing so much on position

3) evaluating races in series rather than evaluating each race on its own as part of what you seem to be seeking is an evaluation of the individual horse's form, while what you're actually evaluating is the horse's ability compared to the other horses in the current race

[LottaKash]

Folks wouldn't it be nice, when just using the past performances for the t-breds, and not having the luxury of watching the race live or via re-plays, to have the program show whether the horses were racing inside near the rail or outside of the rail or of the horses on the rail ?.......Essentially, what I am saying is in Harness Racing, we get the benefit of having those wonderful little "donuts" that express where (inside or outside) the horse's position was in his race.....I have seen so many harness running lines, that I can tell almost with certainty, whether a horse was trapped inside, a suck along , a feeble or aborted attempt to take command, or caught behind a fading leader in the mid or deep stretch.. etc...and all because of those little donuts...

ie;...7...2o...2o...1...1-1...1-2.....this horse was battling for the lead on the outside (first over) at the 1st 1/4 and at the half and by the 3/4 mark secured the lead and walked it on it for the win.......a very powerful race....if it were to look like this; 7 2 2 1 1, it was a nice win for sure but form wise less strenuous than the first example......

or;....7...5...4o...3oo...2-1...1-2....another powerful performance, this horse was out and about at the 1/2 and then was at least 3-wide on the last turn before they straightened out for the drive to the wire......or without the donuts; 7 5 4 3 2 1, a nice forward progression but not as powerful as the first example.....

So wouldn't it nice to have this little convenience when trying to properly identify powerful form vs, just ok or suck-along form ?

Just rubbing it in for fun.......:jump: Just one of the little-big things that have bothered me all these years, the past-performance purveyors could do it, but they never will.......

And while on pet-peeves, the Harness Drivers get to wear their own silks each and every time they drive....Wouldn't it be nice if you could get to know your favorite Jockey by his silks, so when watching a race, you would know who was up on a particular horse.....Good for the owners but not so good for the fans or players.....

best,

[jotb]

Wow... I guess there are some things that I overlooked. However, may I add three things...

1) If a horse coming off of a big win is claimed by a 5% conditioner, unless they are the cheapest of the cheap, they probably won't "change" overnight. I have always felt that jockeys and trainers are an overrated, overbet factor, and to discredit a horse's good race or races because he's suddenly in a bad barn, might not be too smart. Of course, many times it's going to depend on the length of layoff.

2) Pedigree, IMO, is vastly overrated. Just because a horse is "supposed" to love grass, mud, or win early doesn't mean that they necessarily will. Horses are individuals, and not all develop to perfection.

3) Most of the time, a horse that encounters obstacles early on in a race makes their own trouble. There are consistent "hard-luck" horses who have trouble lines nearly every single race, yet each time out, appear to be sitting on a big one. Obvious trouble often gets overbet at the windows. It's the subtle things that are not so obvious that get underbet.

Anyway, enough of my prattle. What would you suggest?

There's not much to suggest here. The point is you will find yourself giving horses credit where todays race is completely different from their last race. I've seen numerous horses come back to win with a dull running line just because they tried a different surface, were running against the grain, or totally liked or dislike an off-track last out. You also have to think about horses that had a poor post position last out. It's the same with your workout theory. How do you know the workouts are legit? You certainly will run into a problem with horses shipping into another racetrack for the first time. How do know if the horse ships well? Many horses leave their race on the van or just don't adjust to the new environment? The receiving barn can be quite overwhelming at time for horses. The list goes on and on. Can you still translate aspects of form into points, so that you can generate a fair odds line based on form? I'm sure you can. The real question is, will it be worth your time and effort? In the long haul probably not. This is not to say you won't catch winners or cash a few decent tickets but I'm sure there will be many times you will scratch your head wondering what went wrong. This is a complex game and for most handicappers they strive so desperately to come up with some type of mathematical system to answer what will happen in the future (predicting the outcome of upcoming races.) It's fun and challenging to do but, I believe some handicappers get too caught up with it and forget that racehorses are not machines. They like humans have ailments, mood swings, wants and needs. The handicapper has to incorporate the horses body language on that given day to figure out if the math will hold up and if you visualize something negative or positive in a horse, just like humans, they will fool you on occasion. Let's not forget about the trainers and owners. They play a significant role in the outcome of a horses performance. Just recently, I was informed from a trainer that ran a horse (and on paper looked extremely good), he was totally against running but the owner was persistant and forced the trainer to run anyway. Prior to the race the horse was coughing so the trainer had the vet scope the horse and sure enough the horse was full of mucus. How could the owner allow this horse to run? The horse was the morning line favorite and probably thought the horse would still previal. The horse ran and finished nowhere. Anyway, good luck with your project but please always keep an open mind when evaluating the races. Each race is like a new puzzle and it's your job to put each piece in it's proper spot. Don't force a piece of that puzzle in a spot where it does not fit.

Good luck,
Joe

[ranchwest]

jotb,

That's a good post. I've done quite a bit of research on form factors and I've never come up with anything more than a basic aid, not anything on which I could build a line. I have found a few things that suggested a weak favorite, but not much to suggest a lock winner (if there is such a thing) based on form alone.