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shoelessjoe
09-08-2008, 06:40 AM
Since Tampa closed I have been on a downward trend of losing,I have been trying to think what I was doing different.I had a long discussion with a friend of mine yesterday and now realized what I was doing wrong.I have been letting the computer programs use me instead of me using the program as a tool. Before I was picking out my contenders before I turned my computer on,now Im was just letting the readouts decide who my contenders are.Listening to some old Sartin tapes people like Brohammer and Purdy would often comment about how the members were becoming too dependent on the programs and not doing enough work beforehand,I believe that they were right.Shoeless


Thanks Pino for yelling at me yesterday about this and getting me headed back in the right direction[i hope]

sjk
09-08-2008, 07:00 AM
I recently had the exact opposite experience.

Normally I let the computer do all of the work in selecting the bets to make.

I found myself at Saratoga for 2 days without most of my normal tools. I had the feeling that trying to make bets based on programs/forms was a total exercise in futility and made a total of 3 bets over 2 days (these based on some papework that I had brought along).

dav4463
09-08-2008, 07:08 AM
It's easy for me to get on a roll of hitting winners and then start trying to out-think myself and lose my edge. I have to keep it simple. If the winner isn't there, I need to pass instead of trying to force a play. I have to slap myself and go back to the basics ever so often.

HUSKER55
09-08-2008, 09:08 AM
I use a computer to do the tedious jobs , calculating totals and etc, and then take my printout and make a list of contenders. Generally I can narrow a field down to one or two "most likely to win" with one "longshot" who has a chance.

Computers don't allow for tolerances so you have to incorporate them into your program or you have to make the final decision.

I am sure there are those who can go by what the computer says but I don't think any "mere mortals" who can can do that. Well,,,,,at least I can't do that.

husker55

:)

MarquisMark
09-08-2008, 09:37 AM
In this game, I think computers would be most useful with the statisitical element of handicapping, number crunching and that kind of thing. But there is more to this than statistics...in the end, I think there is no replacement for the human eye and the seasoning of experience to really know what to look for.

Light
09-08-2008, 11:19 AM
Shoe

I used to think that too but it works both ways. My preference is to have the computer output and see the pp's they are based upon. There are times where the computer has the top rated horse that the pp's shows has major negative angles,such as dropping off a win.

Then again,second guessing the computer based on more marginal angles can be risky. A top rated horse thrown out because he looks like he needs the lead in a race full of speed has been a disaster for me. Alot of times these horses tweak their style just enough to stalk and prevail at nice prices.

If there were a running count between me and my computer,my computer is kicking my ass. It still does not make me want to take its picks blindly,but I have more respect for its picks. Frivolously dismissing them is the opposite side of the same coin where you bet them blindly. The balance is an art not easily mastered.

HUSKER55
09-08-2008, 12:19 PM
Light


Boy, did you hit the nail on the head

husker55

:)

shoelessjoe
09-08-2008, 05:14 PM
Sartin was saying at the end to pick the best paceline of the last 3 at a comparable distance,to me this is not handicapping but just acting like a robot.I preferred the way they used to tell you about picking pacelines when it was Pirco.

46zilzal
09-08-2008, 05:44 PM
Sartin was saying at the end to pick the best paceline of the last 3 at a comparable distance,to me this is not handicapping but just acting like a robot.I preferred the way they used to tell you about picking pacelines when it was Pirco.
GUIDELINES for people to first get an understanding of the program. Akin to only driving a car under 25 mph when you are learning. ONCE one is comfortable with the program, AS MANY ATTEST, don't follow any rules since there are none but rather only what works for you.

Pizzolla articulated it best on p. 158 in Pace Makes the Race "TO those who must have a mechanical approach, I can only tell you that you re sentencing yourself to mere competence at best. One of my favorite quotes is attributed to Lao Tze, the compiler of the Tao Te Ching. He said,"When the great Way is lost, there arise codes of conduct and behavior.:

cmoore
09-08-2008, 06:34 PM
Computer programs are about worthless with 1st time starters..Even mdns that are running 2nd time out, trying a new surface or distance..

46zilzal
09-08-2008, 06:39 PM
Computer programs are about worthless with 1st time starters..Even mdns that are running 2nd time out, trying a new surface or distance..
MOST babies do not learn to run the first time out, so you bet against them. 2nd time maidens will tell you if they have learned their lessons from the first time out.

Changing surfaces? there are many keys to look for.

cj
09-08-2008, 06:52 PM
Changing surfaces? there are many keys to look for.

Yes, and breeding, especially on the female side, is first amongst these.

cmoore
09-08-2008, 07:14 PM
MOST babies do not learn to run the first time out, so you bet against them. 2nd time maidens will tell you if they have learned their lessons from the first time out.

Changing surfaces? there are many keys to look for.

Thats where the longshots are 46, and a computer program won't help you find them...If you want examples, I can show you.

Tom
09-08-2008, 08:02 PM
cmoore - some programs have excellent tools for handicapping FTS. There is more to software than pace and speed.;)

cmoore
09-08-2008, 08:17 PM
cmoore - some programs have excellent tools for handicapping FTS. There is more to software than pace and speed.;)

Do software programs really know sire information??

Here's just one example...Last Friday at Belmont in race 4 on the turf. Elusive Bluff out of Elusive Quality wins 7x the avg 1st time out in that type of race. Also that sire has the most first time out winners on the turf last 3 years. He wins and pays $67..Things like that I doubt any computer program would have. By the way, I picked him in my pick thread.

RichieP
09-08-2008, 08:27 PM
Do software programs really know sire information??



Tom's does! :)

cmoore
09-08-2008, 08:35 PM
Tom's does! :)

Ok, I'm gonna ask...What program are you guys referring to??

Jeff P
09-08-2008, 08:43 PM
If you think about it, there really insn't anything a program can't be made to "know." In fact, I know of at least one program that enables the user to handle sires and 1st time starters quite nicely. <G>

-jp

.

shoelessjoe
09-08-2008, 09:04 PM
Richie,You better be careful you might get banned for posting on a non Sartin site.Jeff

Tom
09-08-2008, 09:10 PM
I'm using HTR...sire info, trainer info, workout ratings, lots of looks at FTS.

Robert Fischer
09-08-2008, 10:22 PM
these programs keep getting better.

atonymania
09-08-2008, 11:37 PM
l think computer picks are useful if you do your handicapping first and compare them to the computer picks ,where there are differences ,try and use your angles and that will help.

barn32
09-09-2008, 01:27 AM
Everybody here has got a million dollar computer. The problem is that they just keep feeding $100 programs into it.

raybo
09-09-2008, 12:10 PM
Since Tampa closed I have been on a downward trend of losing,I have been trying to think what I was doing different.I had a long discussion with a friend of mine yesterday and now realized what I was doing wrong.I have been letting the computer programs use me instead of me using the program as a tool. Before I was picking out my contenders before I turned my computer on,now Im was just letting the readouts decide who my contenders are.Listening to some old Sartin tapes people like Brohammer and Purdy would often comment about how the members were becoming too dependent on the programs and not doing enough work beforehand,I believe that they were right.Shoeless


Thanks Pino for yelling at me yesterday about this and getting me headed back in the right direction[i hope]

As I've stated in previous threads, this exact thing happened to me and, as a result, I stopped wagering for over a year. I totally lost confidence in myself and my handicapping program. The problem wasn't with the handicapping program. I had just stopped doing my "due diligence", which means, I wasn't verifying the results my program was spitting out. I was just betting what it said. I have a running line process built into my Excel spreadsheet program. Most of the time it's right, selects the same running line that I would if I was handicapping in "non-automated mode". The automated mode was originally designed to do a basic job of running line selection in order to allow me to run many races through it and compare with .xrd results data for checking current handicapping processes and for testing new ones. The line selection process was working so well, at one point, that I stopped looking at which lines the program was selecting and was betting straight from the program. That was a big mistake and caused me to waste about 1/3 of my bankroll before I came to my senses and took a much needed break.

After returning to my previous verification process I started hitting again at previous rates and ROI. Now, before every handicapping session I have a checklist that comes up before my handicapping program can be viewed, which reminds me of the things I must do in order for the program to work the way it was designed to work.

shoelessjoe
09-09-2008, 04:00 PM
Ray,Good post.Shoeless

ldiatone
09-09-2008, 05:31 PM
Ok, I'm gonna ask...What program are you guys referring to??
hello, i use TM's and hdw info along w/ allinone for FTS. i use the roi% of TM's for "first asking", sire roi % for turf sprint-route. then, trainer roi% for 2yo and FTS. use aio for track bias. it works for me. not always.
ldiatone
ps there's nothing like fresh chicken crepes w/ aspargus and a shi-itke mushroom sauce. chocolate mousse for finale.

cmoore
09-09-2008, 05:37 PM
These programs all sound great. But when it comes to 2 year old mdn races. I'll take my handicapping over any program all day long.

tundral
09-10-2008, 01:16 AM
TVG = Mute button
HRTV = JEFF SIEGEL = LEGEND

applebee
09-10-2008, 01:49 PM
If you think about it, there really insn't anything a program can't be made to "know." In fact, I know of at least one program that enables the user to handle sires and 1st time starters quite nicely. <G>

-jp

.
Why yes it does:)

shoelessjoe
09-10-2008, 06:16 PM
This post took a left turn somewhere but you dont need a computer program for sire info I think Mike Helm has a book and so did Tomlinson.

As for computer programs Im done with them Im just going to stick with using the two best things around CJ'S numbers and Jim Lehane's book Calibration Handicapping.

Tom
09-11-2008, 11:35 AM
These programs all sound great. But when it comes to 2 year old mdn races. I'll take my handicapping over any program all day long.

Do you assume that people who use computers do not handicap as well?
It's not like we get Magic 8 Ball selections and go bet them. The computer is just a tool we use to manage information and do calulations and filing for us.

socantra
09-11-2008, 12:25 PM
As for computer programs Im done with them Im just going to stick with using the two best things around CJ'S numbers and Jim Lehane's book Calibration Handicapping.

You have some magic way of getting CJs numbers without a computer program?

cmoore
09-11-2008, 01:58 PM
Do you assume that people who use computers do not handicap as well?
It's not like we get Magic 8 Ball selections and go bet them. The computer is just a tool we use to manage information and do calulations and filing for us.

I'm sure there are plenty of people here that rely way too much on thier software picks. My main point is, there's not a program out there that can out handicapp me in 2 year old mdn races. If one of you all think you have such a program...BRING IT ON!!!!!:cool:

Tom
09-11-2008, 02:30 PM
My program doesn't make "picks." That was my point.

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 02:34 PM
I'm sure there are plenty of people here that rely way too much on thier software picks. My main point is, there's not a program out there that can out handicapp me in 2 year old mdn races. If one of you all think you have such a program...BRING IT ON!!!!!:cool:
Many ,many people do not bet those races as there is NOTHING logical to go on.

cmoore
09-11-2008, 02:43 PM
Many ,many people do not bet those races as there is NOTHING logical to go on.

We've been over this before 46. It's called sire information. Something you can't grasp..

Anyways..That's why these type of races are so lucrative. The public for the most part doesn't have a clue. So attack what most cannot..They lack the knowledge or information..

completebill
09-11-2008, 05:54 PM
Many ,many people do not bet those races as there is NOTHING logical to go on.

This CAN'T be true. All Maiden races, including those wth first-time starters show a higher win% for Favs than all other races.
As a start, one can "go on" breeding--sire; breeding--dam; Trainer stats; jockey stats; jockey-trainer team stats; whether or not the "proven" horses in the race have run to par; lasix on FTS; blinks on FTS; workout clocker reports; workout--speed"; gate works; workout-frequency; workout VOLUME over a given period prior to race (Hugely important); visual appearance in paddock, post parade and warmup; nature of the warmup, and more.
All of these save clockers' reports and visual impressions can be quantified, and can be obtained, analyzed, and "ranked" via computer!

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 05:57 PM
We've been over this before 46. It's called sire information. Something you can't grasp..

Anyways..That's why these type of races are so lucrative. The public for the most part doesn't have a clue. So attack what most cannot..They lack the knowledge or information..
I go where they don't know all the time: in regular maiden races without THEORETICALS.
Babies learn to run by running, getting dirt in their face, in close with crowd noise, NOT in the morning working out alone or with one other horse. Few win on inherent talent alone.

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 05:58 PM
This CAN'T be true. All Maiden races, including those wth first-time starters show a higher win% for Favs than all other races.

Highger win prcentage for favoirites? WHere the heck do you follow horse racing?

yes the ones about to graduate, scream out pace wise much to the chagrin of the crowd. My three longest prices ever were all in maiden races.

THE HORSE RUNS, the rest is window dressing.

cmoore
09-11-2008, 06:28 PM
This CAN'T be true. All Maiden races, including those wth first-time starters show a higher win% for Favs than all other races.
As a start, one can "go on" breeding--sire; breeding--dam; Trainer stats; jockey stats; jockey-trainer team stats; whether or not the "proven" horses in the race have run to par; lasix on FTS; blinks on FTS; workout clocker reports; workout--speed"; gate works; workout-frequency; workout VOLUME over a given period prior to race (Hugely important); visual appearance in paddock, post parade and warmup; nature of the warmup, and more.
All of these save clockers' reports and visual impressions can be quantified, and can be obtained, analyzed, and "ranked" via computer!

You tell him Bill..He doesnt' get it and never will..You listed lasix..Coincidently I just hit the 4 in race 6 at Arlington today..Showed good early speed in last and ran above par in the first 2 fractions before quitting badly. He got lasix today and wired the field at 45-1..Check the pick thread.

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 06:35 PM
You tell him Bill..He doesnt' get it and never will..You listed lasix..Coincidently I just hit the 4 in race 6 at Arlington today..Showed good early speed in last and ran above par in the first 2 fractions before quitting badly. He got lasix today and wired the field at 45-1..Check the pick thread.
No, like most babies, he learned to apportion his speed throughout the race. What race was that?

FOUND IT, the old 2nd call maiden angle. Nothing need other than a baby who "got it" graduating to extend it's ability to run throughout a race in its next start: the essence of pace handicappiing.

completebill
09-11-2008, 06:50 PM
Highger win prcentage for favoirites? WHere the heck do you follow horse racing?

yes the ones about to graduate, scream out pace wise much to the chagrin of the crowd. My three longest prices ever were all in maiden races.

THE HORSE RUNS, the rest is window dressing.

It's not where I play. It's the fact that it's been shown by multiple 20,000+ race sample studies, including those by Jim Bayles (spotsStats) and Barry Meadows.

sjk
09-11-2008, 07:07 PM
I would not have thought it true either but from a large sample of races:

Maidens - fav win 36.9%
Others - fav win 34.8%

cmoore
09-11-2008, 08:04 PM
No, like most babies, he learned to apportion his speed throughout the race. What race was that?

FOUND IT, the old 2nd call maiden angle. Nothing need other than a baby who "got it" graduating to extend it's ability to run throughout a race in its next start: the essence of pace handicappiing.

The essence of pace handicapping eh..Then why the hell did she go off at 45-1. Most saw that lost by 40 lentghs in first race and simply dismissed her. She got lasix because it says in her comments that she bled last time out..So it's a little more then just pace..The fact that she did run above par in those first two fractions is key, but without the lasix she probably stops again..

cmoore
09-11-2008, 08:06 PM
I would not have thought it true either but from a large sample of races:

Maidens - fav win 36.9%
Others - fav win 34.8%

Just do 2 year olds and see what you come up with..

shoelessjoe
09-11-2008, 08:36 PM
Socantra,I admit Im not as knowledgeable as you about computer programs ,I really dont consider CJ'S numbers as a computer program per say compared to Sartin's programs.I know Im in the minority but this is just my opinion,I really dont know why it would bother you one way or another.

Tom
09-11-2008, 08:37 PM
I have 6,761 maiden 2yo races in my db.
2,407 were won by the favorite, 35.6%, with an roi of .83

Zilly, you might the only one who can't pick a 2yo maiden winner! :lol:

socantra
09-11-2008, 09:17 PM
Socantra,I admit Im not as knowledgeable as you about computer programs ,I really dont consider CJ'S numbers as a computer program per say compared to Sartin's programs.I know Im in the minority but this is just my opinion,I really dont know why it would bother you one way or another.

It doesn't really bother me one way or another, but CJ does not sell numbers and never did. He sold a computer program that he limited to a certain number of users. You use that computer program, which generates CJs numbers.

I consider his work, which generates variants, pace figures, speed figures, running styles, speed points, late speed points, energy distribution and a number of other things to be a pretty impressive, sophisticated piece of software. I suppose its all in your point of view.

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 09:22 PM
It's not where I play. It's the fact that it's been shown by multiple 20,000+ race sample studies, including those by Jim Bayles (spotsStats) and Barry Meadows.
makes the specifics of certain tracks DISAPPEAR.

shoelessjoe
09-11-2008, 09:25 PM
I believe CJ'S numbers are the best and have stated so before,if you looking for an argument please go somewhere else.

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 09:26 PM
The essence of pace handicapping eh..Then why the hell did she go off at 45-1. Most saw that lost by 40 lentghs in first race and simply dismissed her. She got lasix because it says in her comments that she bled last time out..So it's a little more then just pace..The fact that she did run above par in those first two fractions is key, but without the lasix she probably stops again..
If you would hang around the REAL people at the track rather (the one's who actually train them) than be a surrogate to the grandstander information of your computer, you might learn some of the signals a baby gives out right before they graduate as it is akin to one of the OLDEST angles in the game:Improving Early Speed

It's not where they finished last time. it is how well they ran EARLY that counts with babies as they are telling the trainer (and the people in the crowd who are smart enough to pick it up) that they are learning to apportion their speed.

Tom
09-11-2008, 09:48 PM
Sounds like he is doing OK without hanging around with them.
What's the last contest you won, 46? :lol::lol::lol:

cmoore
09-11-2008, 10:31 PM
If you would hang around the REAL people at the track rather (the one's who actually train them) than be a surrogate to the grandstander information of your computer, you might learn some of the signals a baby gives out right before they graduate as it is akin to one of the OLDEST angles in the game:Improving Early Speed

It's not where they finished last time. it is how well they ran EARLY that counts with babies as they are telling the trainer (and the people in the crowd who are smart enough to pick it up) that they are learning to apportion their speed.

Dude, this was no computer pick and I'm about 10 steps ahead of you when it comes to handicapping mdns..No doubt about it..

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 10:39 PM
Dude, this was no computer pick and I'm about 10 steps ahead of you when it comes to handicapping mdns..No doubt about it..
It was an obvious computer selection as 2nd call maiden winners graduate all the time.

46zilzal
09-11-2008, 10:43 PM
Sounds like he is doing OK without hanging around with them.
What's the last contest you won, 46?
I wager versus the crowd no one else, no other way.

cmoore
09-12-2008, 12:00 AM
It was an obvious computer selection as 2nd call maiden winners graduate all the time.

I guess everyone just missed it then..

If I had given you 5 bucks and told you I like the 4, you still wouldn't of bet her.

46zilzal
09-12-2008, 12:06 AM
I guess everyone just missed it then..

If I had given you 5 bucks and told you I like the 4, you still wouldn't of bet her.
I would have bet the best maiden to the 2nd call in one of it's last two starts, pure and simple. It is a set wager in most maiden races.
It is a well established Sartin methodology angle with hundereds of examples

cmoore
09-12-2008, 02:24 AM
I would have bet the best maiden to the 2nd call in one of it's last two starts, pure and simple. It is a set wager in most maiden races.
It is a well established Sartin methodology angle with hundereds of examples

Ok Mr 46er..Look over tomorrows mdn races and tell me which one is your best bet Sartin 2nd call angle bet. You make it sound so damn easy. Post it in the pick thread.

barn32
09-12-2008, 05:52 AM
Ok Mr 46er..Look over tomorrows mdn races and tell me which one is your best bet Sartin 2nd call angle bet. You make it sound so damn easy. Post it in the pick thread.

Don't hold your breath.

46zilzal
09-12-2008, 12:36 PM
The three and the four qualify as 2nd call maidens but the 4 should wire the field with improving early fractions.

46zilzal
09-12-2008, 01:06 PM
3,5 are qualifiers for 2nd call maidens

46zilzal
09-12-2008, 03:57 PM
few lines to go on but basing an evaluation on SOMETHING ( a race) is better than some theoretical sire rating.

cmoore
09-12-2008, 04:05 PM
few lines to go on but basing an evaluation on SOMETHING ( a race) is better than some theoretical sire rating.

The sire Alke beat you..he's 2 for 2 as a first time starter as of 8/10..3-1 was too short for me to bet..

46zilzal
09-12-2008, 04:12 PM
Saddle Creek, and no one else, won that race.

cmoore
09-12-2008, 04:34 PM
Saddle Creek, and no one else, won that race.

LOL..Your a trip dude..So say Alkes runners keep winning hypothetically..say 8 for 8..Will you bet him in his 9th 1st time out runner or will you continue in your stubborn ways??

cj
09-12-2008, 04:46 PM
3,5 are qualifiers for 2nd call maidens

Hmmm...I had the 2 a little faster. He won and paid $30.

2 Forbidden Dreams 6-1 EP 72/2
1 Saint Bear 3-1 1st na/0
3 L. A. Rules 2-1 E 71/6
4 Always a Gentleman 6-1 1st na/0
5 B'cause B'cause 6-1 NA 70/5
1A Bearcatt 3-1 1st na/0
6 White Balance 7-2 1st na/0

cmoore
09-12-2008, 05:07 PM
calder race 6)..:8::9: to win

46zilzal
09-12-2008, 05:11 PM
Hmmm...I had the 2 a little faster. He won and paid $30.

2 Forbidden Dreams 6-1 EP 72/2
1 Saint Bear 3-1 1st na/0
3 L. A. Rules 2-1 E 71/6
4 Always a Gentleman 6-1 1st na/0
5 B'cause B'cause 6-1 NA 70/5
1A Bearcatt 3-1 1st na/0
6 White Balance 7-2 1st na/0


This thread ON MY PART was showing how 2n call maidens stand out, but when the SOFTWARE pinpointed a major betting opportunity at that price, you risk your money for a greater return and in the exotics.

cmoore
09-12-2008, 05:11 PM
calder race 6)..:8::9: to win

wrong thread..lol..9 ran 2nd..

shoelessjoe
09-12-2008, 09:17 PM
Socantra,You will be happy to hear that myself and Parts have been given the heave ho in Binderland from posting.Take care and best of luck to you.

fast4522
09-13-2008, 04:47 PM
So we are in good company Jeff, you might say that I led the way by saying that racing is in steep decline and there was no merit to paying someone $600+ over time for a program, the same gent was the first to blow for them that I was painting a less than rosey picture for the group and no one wanted to hear it. If something can not be openly disputed with facts they do not want it posted period.

Tom
09-13-2008, 05:23 PM
The only time merit to paying for a program matters is to the guy paying and his results with it. I find it curious that some people are able to use a program and make money with it yet others cannot. Sounds more like the people than the program to me.

fast4522
09-13-2008, 05:31 PM
Exactly my point, so much works without the need to line other peoples pockets, 50% of the races are pure junk. Most would just have to modify themselves to have control.

barn32
09-13-2008, 05:36 PM
Socantra,You will be happy to hear that myself and Parts have been given the heave ho in Binderland from posting.Take care and best of luck to you.What is Binderland, and what did you do two guys do to get kicked out?

You're such a positive, uplifting and helpful person I can't imagine anyone kicking you out of anywhere. Must be a bunch of Nazi's over there!

Tom
09-13-2008, 06:40 PM
No, they are very nice, helpful people over there.
A great bunch of guys who are dedicated to this game and to helping others.
I have nothing but praise for them. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Partsnut
09-13-2008, 07:02 PM
Tom: No, they are very nice, helpful people over there.
A great bunch of guys who are dedicated to this game and to helping others.
I have nothing but praise for them.

Tom, I respect your opinion but mine is the complete opposite of yours.
I'm in total agreement with fast and shoeless. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
I feel that being a member for about six years makes my opinion qualified.
I was fooled just as you are now and I'm not ashamed to admit that.

Overlay
09-13-2008, 07:27 PM
What is Binderland?

http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binder/forums/showthread.php?t=4503

fast4522
09-13-2008, 07:28 PM
Bill,
Its just politics, there is a third rail everywhere even here. I am not for blowing warm fuzzy air up anyones, but from what I have seen not here. If you keep it on subject there seem to be few limits, being objective has its posts here and nothing is for sale other than banner space, good luck to them over there.

shoelessjoe
09-13-2008, 08:10 PM
I cant say I totally agree with Parts ,they do have some people there that are very nice and helpful.My case was I didnt totally agree with some things over there one thing led to another and I got suspended.I didnt think that it was fair but now thinking back it was probably my time to go anyway.It's a very different group of people now then when I first got involved and I really dont fit in anymore. Anyway it's time to move on and I also wish them well and harbor no bad feelings towards them.

Overlay
09-13-2008, 08:28 PM
I've never joined that site (although I have visited from time to time), so I can't speak from detailed personal knowledge of it. But I think that any handicapping methodology that produces a major "paradigm shift" (as with the contributions of Beyer or Sartin, for example) can tend to promote the kind of mindset among its adherents that Beyer expressed in "Picking Winners" when he called speed figures "the way, the truth, and the light".

In my opinion, regardless of how powerful any one particular handicapping aspect/tool is, in order to keep from being bet into unprofitability, it has to be part of a comprehensive multi-faceted model, and must address not only the question, "Which horse is likeliest to win?" but also, "Which horse represents the most favorable wagering proposition?"

barn32
09-13-2008, 08:30 PM
You know now that I think about it, I believe I have heard of this place you're talking about. Aren't they that cult-like group of handicappers who worship some guru out in California, while they sit around in a circle holding hands and chanting, Ommmmmm, Ommmmmmm, Ommmmmm and look at race replays?

I think their head guy is somebody named Rickie or Dickie or something like that and he likes to ride around at night naked on his Moped tossing flowers to passersby on the street and handing out Hare Krishna material.

Why would anybody want to belong to a group like that? I gotta tell ya, man that is just plain weird!

barn32
09-13-2008, 08:50 PM
Tom:

Tom, I respect your opinion but mine is the complete opposite of yours.
I'm in total agreement with fast and shoeless. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
I feel that being a member for about six years makes my opinion qualified.
I was fooled just as you are now and I'm not ashamed to admit that.Hey come on, man spill the beans! What the hell did those Nazi's do to you over there? I love exposing these kinds of creeps.

[By the way, I bought your pace appraiser program, and it is the bomb! That's one good program you got there, and reasonably priced too. I hope you make a killing with that goodie!]

shoelessjoe
09-13-2008, 09:00 PM
Barn,Actually Richie I would say is second in command and is a very knowlegeable capper as well as Binder who is the head of the site.I have nothing but the highest regard for both of them.Like I said I didnt fit in any longer not only because of my big stomach but the people have changed within the group.

Charlie D
09-13-2008, 09:07 PM
You know now that I think about it, I believe I have heard of this place you're talking about. Aren't they that cult-like group of handicappers who worship some guru out in California, while they sit around in a circle holding hands and chanting, Ommmmmm, Ommmmmmm, Ommmmmm and look at race replays?

I think their head guy is somebody named Rickie or Dickie or something like that and he likes to ride around at night naked on his Moped tossing flowers to passersby on the street and handing out Hare Krishna material.

Why would anybody want to belong to a group like that? I gotta tell ya, man that is just plain weird!


:lol:

shoelessjoe
09-14-2008, 12:30 AM
Barn 32,Im not sure who you are and what your trying to prove but Im not going to get sucked into it.Also if I were you I wouldnt be throwing around that Nazi comment it might offend some people.I think that type of derogatory name calling is a big reason why this country of ours is in the shape it is today. Quite frankly Im surprised PA Admin didnt delete that comment by now that's if he is monitoring it today.

barn32
09-14-2008, 03:24 AM
if I were you I wouldnt be throwing around that Nazi comment it might offend some people.I think that type of derogatory name calling is a big reason why this country of ours is in the shape it is today. Quite frankly Im surprised PA Admin didnt delete that comment by now that's if he is monitoring it today.Whatza matter, you against free speech?

fast4522
09-14-2008, 03:31 AM
I agree with the cult statement but think of them as more of a sect, its more of a fit than cutting this one or that one. I do feel racing is in decline, I played Bel & Mth Saturday and did not bet until race 5 at Monmouth. What garbarge cards for a Saturday, so using computer programs one needs control.

shoelessjoe
09-14-2008, 04:32 AM
Barn,Not against free speech just morons like yourself.

cj
09-14-2008, 11:16 AM
I think it is time to close this one, way off topic...