Interesting State by State Betting Data

[barn32]

"Intrade State Contracts Predict an Obama Win
The betting site www.intrade.com has contracts on who will win individual states. Thanks to Frank Solensky for collecting the (rounded) prices yesterday for the individual contracts, as listed below. For example, if you want to bet that McCain will win Alabama, you can buy contracts for $96 and if McCain wins, you collect $100. A contract that Obama wins Alabama costs $5. Clearly a lot of people are expecting a McCain win there. The last column is positive if Obama is leading the state, negative if McCain is leading. The sum is 84, which means the bettors are expecting Obama to win a net 84 electoral votes, that is, an Obama win 311 to 227.

Here is how the bettors are expecting the swing states to break:

Obama gets: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia
McCain gets: Florida, Missouri"

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/6650/statebettingdata1tv0.png
http://img370.imageshack.us/img370/8695/statebettingdata2xj2.gif

[ArlJim78]

its been three days, whats the latest? still solid for The One?

[barn32]

its been three days, whats the latest? still solid for The One?No offense, but does everyone have the same avitar now?

What do you mean by "the one."

Washington has gone to barely blue. Indiana has gone to barely red. Montana has gone solid red. Virginia has gone slightly red. Pennsylvania has gone to barely blue, but Florida is a flat dead heat.:eek::mad::(

[LottaKash]

I think the Presidential Election shoud be held at the half-time show at the Super Bowl......take the odds on Alabama and NJ,. but not Forida as they cheat......:eek:

[robert99]

What is surprising to me is that only 3 States: Colorado, Virginia and Ohio are anywhere the representing the overall winner polls which would indicate 45/55 spreads. Whole States seem absolutely polarised to one candidate, other States completely to the opposite candidate. In a fairly homogenously informed country that is almost a break down in democracy as the floating voters in 3 States are seemingly the only ones worth campaigning for to elect the President of all the States.