View Full Version : Today's Polls
barn32
09-06-2008, 04:11 PM
There are no state polls today, but there are five post-convention national polls.
http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/1756/pollssept608xs9.png (http://imageshack.us)
It appears that John McCain is getting his post-convention bounce in the form of reducing Barack Obama's lead somewhat. The bounce is likely to continue for a few more days.
Source (www.electoral-vote.com)
It just occurred to me that it's possible, not very likely, but possible that McCain could win the popular vote and lose the election. Wouldn't that be a switch.
OTM Al
09-06-2008, 04:55 PM
Iowa Electronic Market shows almost 9 point favor to Obama on voteshare, but a 20 point lead in the winner take all market. I would believe that one a whole lot more than any of these polls listed
OTM Al
10-10-2008, 04:36 PM
IEM has cascaded. Now showing winner take all selling at .85 for Obama and about .16 for McCain, so roughly now predicting 85% chance of Obama win. Vote share is showing about a 10 point gap .55 vs .45
DeanT
10-10-2008, 06:50 PM
Wow, time to short Obama. That is an early peak with a long way to go. I thought that at 0.75 tho.
And I bought a couple stocks today, so what the hell do I know.
"During this promotion that runs through Tuesday, Nov. 4 (Election Day), 7-Eleven invites Americans to pour their favorite hot beverage into either a red 20-ounce cup for Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, or a blue 20-ounce cup for Democratic candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, and cast their cups for their preferred candidate. The colored cups also have the candidates’ names printed on them. Undecided customers need not choose sides – “unmarked” 7-Eleven hot beverage cups will still be available as well as a bipartisan red, white and blue Big Gulp® fountain drink cups featuring both the donkey and elephant party symbols.
The "7-Election" polling (as they call it) was done in 2000 and 2004, and while their corporate legal team is quick to dismiss their technique as "unabashedly unscientific", the results are nonetheless pretty interesting:
2000 election*
Presidential candidate U.S. voters 7-Election voters
George W. Bush.............. 47.9%............ 51.2%
Al Gore......................... 48.4%..............48.9%
2004 election
George W. Bush.............. 50.7%............ 51%
John Kerry......................48.3%............. 49%
And the current results? As of this moment, it's shaping up to be a landslide:
Presidential candidate 7-Election voters
Barack Obama....................59.32
John McCain.......................40.68
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/08USPresGEMvO.xml&choices=Obama,McCain&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=30&max_pct=60&grid=&points=1&lines=0&colors=
At the moment
Obama 49.8
McCain 41.9
...............................
Electoral
Dem 320
Repub 158
Dave Schwartz
10-10-2008, 10:29 PM
IMHO, this will be the most lopsided election in my lifetime.
PaceAdvantage
10-10-2008, 11:14 PM
IMHO, this will be the most lopsided election in my lifetime.I strongly disagree. I think it will be quite close.
pktruckdriver
10-10-2008, 11:51 PM
Dave Hcap
You're both so right, a blind man can see this one, no offense to blind people.
Electoral
Dem 320
Repub 158
ElKabong
10-10-2008, 11:56 PM
in 1980 the polls had Reagan vs Carter "too close to call" the weekend before the election. People will see the same swing in early November.
Personally I think the polls are full of crap. On Hilary Clinton's unofficial site, they're all saying they're telling pollsters they'll vote for 0b0, but will cast their votes for Mccain......The dailykos gave instructions to their little 0bamatons on how to skew the polling #s......When it gets closer to 11/4 people will swing to Mc-Palin.
Latest.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163339
Pulling Away
Obama opens a double-digit lead in new NEWSWEEK poll
"The global financial meltdown has caused a dramatic shift in the 2008 presidential race, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. With four weeks left in the presidential campaign, Barack Obama now leads John McCain by double digits, 52 percent to 41 percent among registered voters—a marked shift from the last NEWSWEEK poll, conducted one month ago, when the two candidates were tied at 46 percent.
Underlying Obama's surge in support: An historic boiling over of dissatisfaction with the status quo. An astounding 86 percent of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, while a mere 10 percent say they are satisfied. That's the highest wrong track/right track ratio ever recorded in the NEWSWEEK poll "
barn32
10-11-2008, 10:36 AM
in 1980 the polls had Reagan vs Carter "too close to call" the weekend before the election. People will see the same swing in early November.
Heh...I remember that election very well. We started a poker game after the horses were over and there was a loud mouth guy giving 3 to one! on Reagan. 3 to one!!!!
These old geezers couldn't fork over their money fast enough. It was all I could do to keep from betting, but I sure wanted to. I don't know how I resisted, but there was just something about this guy. He had a way of getting action, and he just wasn't that dumb--but he sure acted dumb. So I sat on the sidelines.
After the Reagan won, I ran into the guy and asked him how the hell he could lay 3 to one on such a close election.
He said that he called William Hill in England (remember this was 1980) and asked who the favorite was. I think it was Reagan by 6-5 or 7-5 I really can't remember. He said the favorite has won every time but one or something similar.
I did the same thing in every election since. And now it's easy, you can just go online.
McCain can take a clue from these guys and end this thing quickly.
To the tune of Y.M.C.A.
Old Man, take a look at yourself
I said Old Man, get your balls off the shelf,
I said Old Man, on the campaign trail
There’s no –need-to-be- too – civil.
Old Man, there is much you can say,
I said Old Man, put his past into play,
Name names, tell us what he has done,
And who- he- did- it- with.
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express,
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express
It has everything that you need to expose
The thorns on Obama’s rose
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express,
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express
We know that he’s clean, and artic-u-lit,
But his message is just bullshit,
Old Man, are you listening to me?
I said Old Man, bring this dope to his knees,
I said Old Man, call him out please,
He is just –not-fit- to lead,
Nobama, is an empty suit,
I said Old Man, lock and load and then shoot,
Spill it, just pretend you are Newt.
I’m sure you can do it today.
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express,
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express
It has everything that you need to come back.
Just go out on the attack.
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express,
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express
Old Man, yell it out loud,
That one, hangs with a terrorist crowd,
That one, of his country’s not proud,
He’s just not fit to be here.
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express,
It’s fun to ride on the Straight Talk express
there's a lifetime(in pol years) until this election.
However, everything is trending against Mac.
I think he needs to come out strong with HIS message.
Put out the real straight talk, this country is broke and our "leaders" won't tell you that straight up.
Level with the people.
They are ready for it.
Get specific on what he will cut and by how much.
Vague promises don't hold any water.
Talk about the whole wto/gloabization deal and how it's not all good all the time.
Lay out a plan for overhauling our financial regs in light of recent events and going forward and how that relates to his program.
Stop arguing about the surge working or not working, talk with people about what the way forward is as he sees it.
Not just Iraq and Afgh , but the wider strategy.
Explain what is the "war" and why he thinks it needs to be waged and how he sees it playing out.
Be specific , lay out the pro and con side.
The people are ready for it.
Leave Obama out of it, everyone that is voting on his associations has already made that choice.
Mac will only turn off some that would go with him.
people will not vote for an angry mean looking dude.
I don't like it , but it is that way.
The people are way ahead of all these guys, trust that.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163339
One more item from the Newsweek recent poll.
"Supporters of Hillary Clinton, as many as a fifth of whom had at one point told pollsters they'd support McCain over Obama, now back the Democratic nominee 88 percent to 7 percent"
Go Sarah! :D
Various polling sources on the electoral vote as of yesterday.
Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60
Real Clear Politics: Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103
Marshall Bennett
10-13-2008, 10:48 AM
Various polling sources on the electoral vote as of yesterday.
Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60
Real Clear Politics: Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103
You're really enjoying this aren't you ? These figures are exaggerated . You may be setting yourself up for a huge bubble-burst come election day . :)
PaceAdvantage
10-13-2008, 06:32 PM
This is another ploy of the left and the Soros money machine.
The thinking goes that they want to discourage as many of "us" as they can so that we will stay home and not vote, thinking "why bother, it's over anyway. Look at them thare polls!"
Like I said, the left is playing serious hardball this time around, even though they picked a doozy of a candidate to get behind.
They know Obama is a seriously weak candidate overall, and the ever present spectre of racism is always first and foremost on a far-lefty's mind, so they are going full guns blazing in every venue they can find, including the off-topic section of a horse racing message board.
You have to give credit where credit is due....it's an impressive mass-mindscrew.
wonatthewire1
10-13-2008, 07:05 PM
This is another ploy of the left and the Soros money machine.
The thinking goes that they want to discourage as many of "us" as they can so that we will stay home and not vote, thinking "why bother, it's over anyway. Look at them thare polls!"
Like I said, the left is playing serious hardball this time around, even though they picked a doozy of a candidate to get behind.
They know Obama is a seriously weak candidate overall, and the ever present spectre of racism is always first and foremost on a far-lefty's mind, so they are going full guns blazing in every venue they can find, including the off-topic section of a horse racing message board.
You have to give credit where credit is due....it's an impressive mass-mindphuck.
interesting, but a question: if the indies go for Barry - then what? Would they be considered "far left" as well? Or simply blinded by the messiah?
Or - they perceive a lesser of two very bad choices (any vote could be viewed that way?)
DeanT
10-13-2008, 07:11 PM
Dow up today. New polls from Rasmussen and Gallup showing 5 points and 4 points respectively. Add to that Obama comes out with an economic plan, with one item (mortgages) that Hilary Clinton came up with that he called "a disaster" at the time, and ads for the last week with Joe B saying "he aint fit to be Prez" and 3AM phone calls, and I do not think this will be anything but close.
I believe he should be up by 20 points, but a guy with 2 or 3 years experience who wants to raise capital gains taxes in a falling market, and spend oodles more will always makes this close. People are not dumb. If my wife and I lost our jobs and she walked in the next day saying she ran up my credit cards, she would be shown the door. The cry for change is paramount, but that change still has to be sold to a very skeptical mainstream.
JMO.
PaceAdvantage
10-13-2008, 07:31 PM
interesting, but a question: if the indies go for Barry - then what? Would they be considered "far left" as well? Or simply blinded by the messiah?I would vote for the latter.
Marshall Bennett
10-13-2008, 08:37 PM
How ironic . The dow plunges Friday and the media says this is good for Obama , the worse the economy looks , the better for Obama . Today the dow gains nearly a thousand pts. and ABC 's George Step.....(whatever) says this is good for Obama . Everything regardless of how good or bad seems to be good for Obama. I suppose the world as we know it could come to a sudden end and that would be good for Obama as well . Perhaps he could start his own little world , something within his grasp he could deal with . He's over his head here .
HUSKER55
10-13-2008, 10:04 PM
Exactly how much proof do you need to prove the media is being paid to cover something up.
Vote McCain and lets see what shakes out.
You guys tend to be in quite a tizzy 'bout where Obama should be. All that crap that he should be 20 points ahead insted of 7-10. This is what it takes to win.
http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/426/prez_polls.gif
ArlJim78
10-14-2008, 08:41 AM
the only democrat on that list to win had a 14 to 15 point lead at this point.
that's the whole point, Obama doesn't have that.
So it only counts if it's a democrat. Why?
Ok spin this.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/14/opinion/polls/main4522273.shtml
Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain
CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Major Swing Among Independents, Suggests McCain's Strategy May Be Hurting Him
"The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.
Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week.
McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate."
PaceAdvantage
10-14-2008, 08:10 PM
Hey man, why even bother having an election on November 4. Why don't we just inaugurate Obama now?
Hopefully, when Obama is sworn in, the first thing he does is hold a Constitutional Convention and make it the law of the land that there shall be no other President other than OBAMA until the Messiah dies of old age. Wait a second...Messiahs don't die....hmmmmmm......
Hey man, why even bother having an election on November 4. Why don't we just inaugurate Obama now?
Hopefully, when Obama is sworn in, the first thing he does is hold a Constitutional Convention and make it the law of the land that there shall be no other President other than OBAMA until the Messiah dies of old age. Wait a second...Messiahs don't die....hmmmmmm.........hmmmmmm....
Ever since Obama became a contender, there has been more negative posts and irrelevant nonsense here on this board about Obama then there ever was about George W Churchill.
"Bush Derangement Syndrome"--BDS has been described as a psychological disorder. Got news for you, paranoia is not paranoia if they really are out to get you. Events have pretty much shown it wasn't paranoia-it was GWB. :ThmbDown:
You gentlemen have co-opted that syndrome. To the nth degree. Now a new acronym. Obama Derangement Syndrome Now that a Democrat has an excellent chance of wining, panic has set in among the so-called "conservatives" here. Paranoia on steroids. Big time. Whatever happenned to the contention that a "democrat can't win" youse guys had espoused for a few years?
Brown stains on many panties here. Grow up girls. Karma is a bitch.
Newsmax. Dick Morris electoral update. Worse than last week.
http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=2A89-1
McCain's Numbers
110
Obama's Numbers
396
ODS guys. ODS.
mostpost
10-14-2008, 09:15 PM
Newsmax. Dick Morris electoral update. Worse than last week.
http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=2A89-1
McCain's Numbers
110
Obama's Numbers
396
ODS guys. ODS.
They've made up their minds already. Stop confusing them with the facts!
exactaplayer
10-14-2008, 09:38 PM
You have to give credit where credit is due....it's an impressive mass-mind*****.
Violation of TOS ?
PaceAdvantage
10-14-2008, 10:16 PM
Violation of TOS ?I agree. Please delete it...
banacek
10-14-2008, 10:35 PM
Violation of TOS ?
Yes and I've said it before and I'll say it again. I am extremely disappointed by the tone of the "discussion" on this site. And it has, in my opinion, been to the detriment of the site-off and on topic. I used to have PA as my home page, but it has become so political (and nastily so in my opinion) and actually somewhat sparse on the horse racing side.
I'm hoping when the election dust settles that it can get back to what it does best. In the meantime, time for a winter vacation.
PaceAdvantage
10-14-2008, 10:38 PM
Ever since Obama became a contender, there has been more negative posts and irrelevant nonsense here on this board about Obama then there ever was about George W Churchill.Really? Wow. Where did you get those stats? Eight years of GWB eclipsed by Obama bashing already?
Is that kind of like Obama being one of the most "paid off by Fannie/Freddie" in the Senate despite only being there three years?
"Bush Derangement Syndrome"--BDS has been described as a psychological disorder. Got news for you, paranoia is not paranoia if they really are out to get you. Events have pretty much shown it wasn't paranoia-it was GWB. :ThmbDown:That not what BDS means.
Is that kind of like when Charlie Gibson asked Palin about the Bush Doctrine, when he himself didn't realize what the actual definition was?
You gentlemen have co-opted that syndrome. To the nth degree.Now you're getting brazen.
Now that a Democrat has an excellent chance of wining, panic has set in among the so-called "conservatives" here.Panic? Not me buddy.
Disappointment in what America has apparently become....you bet.
But as Suff so eloquently said, I take solace in the fact that no matter if America makes a giant mistake in electing this inexperienced, ulta-liberal, "say whatever it takes to get elected" goofball, each person controls their own life. Nothing more. I will make sure this Obama disaster has as little affect on my own life as possible.
Paranoia on steroids. Big time. Whatever happenned to the contention that a "democrat can't win" youse guys had espoused for a few years?We've been rigth so far, haven't we? Much to your chagrin in 2004 I might add. Shall we go back in time and review?
Brown stains on many panties here. Grow up girls. Karma is a bitch.You mean I'll finally know what it feels like to be hcap?
PaceAdvantage
10-14-2008, 10:39 PM
Yes and I've said it before and I'll say it again. I am extremely disappointed by the tone of the "discussion" on this site. And it has, in my opinion, been to the detriment of the site-off and on topic. I used to have PA as my home page, but it has become so political (and nastily so in my opinion) and actually somewhat sparse on the horse racing side.
I'm hoping when the election dust settles that it can get back to what it does best. In the meantime, time for a winter vacation.Well, you can always use the Quick Links and avoid off topic altogether.
It's funny, I see people push the bounds of TOS all the time, and nobody says a thing.
I post one or two off color comments, and BAM, you're all there to call me out....tough crowd.
Rookies
10-14-2008, 10:48 PM
Personally Pace... there's a lot of vicious hardball here imho.
However, everyone's a grown up ( well sort of... ) and you get what you get when people have very hard nosed opinions about politics at a critical time.
The topic is " Off Topic " Banacek. You can always stick with the Horsey topics, as I will be doing the same with the upcoming Breeders. But, for now, all opinions, lunatic or not, are voiced.
PaceAdvantage
10-14-2008, 10:52 PM
Personally Pace... there's a lot of vicious hardball here imho.Forget about here. There's a lot of vicious hardball EVERYWHERE...most importantly in the media, including hard news media, not just commentary media.
PaceAdvantage
10-14-2008, 11:26 PM
After much consideration, I issue an apology to exactaplayer and Banacek for my uncharacteristic disregard for my own TOS.
I have edited my comments and hope that I will not offer such a poor example again in the future.
Pa
that's big of you.
I think everyone of fair mind could cut you some slack here.
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