Evaluation Early Speed for Shoeless

[Tom]

OK, shoeless, Finger Lakes, Race 3 today. 6 furlongs dirt.

Who has been taking the lead or pressing close up recently?
1 – used to , but no early speed lately
1a – pressers early
3 - stays close early
5 - presses early
8 - wants to be in front

I think it is between the 3 and 8 for the early lead.

To make this easy, I use what I call Eye-Ball Scan Pace, which is a simple way to
Look at early fractions in my head. No rocket science here.

21 = 0, 43 = 0.
Add 1 point for each fifth slower, and 1 point for each length back.

So the 3 has the following F1 ratings – 8, 8, 6, 6, 8, 7,
And the following F2 ratings – 14, 15, 13, 16, 17, 17,
His turn times are 6, 7, 7, 10, 9, 10


The 8 has the following F1 ratings – 10, 8, 6, 7, 6, 12
And the following 2C ratings – 19, 18, 17, 15, 16, 19
His turn times are 9, 10, 11, 8, 10, 7

The rest of the sprinters, F1-F2-TT ratings”

1 – 17 – 31 (14)
2 – 14 – 22 (8)
4 – 9 – 18 ( 9)
5 – 7 – 16 ( 9)
6 - 11 – 18 ( 7) second line back

Does the 3 or 8 figure to pop the other and get clear alone?
The 8 had start issues last two races, and his start call positions are 6, 7, 3, 3, 5, 6
The 3 start positions are – 1, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4 A bit erratic, but still breaks better than the 8.

[shoelessjoe]

This is the kind of race that confuses me up to a point

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,I think the 8 will have the lead but always quits.Jeff

[Tom]

Based on his declining form or poor starts last two, I think he will not have the lead by the first call. He might for a few stride, but the 3 will pass him fairly early today. The 4 and 5 look tough in here.
We shall see in little while.

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,I like the 5 but would pass race,it does look like other then early.Jeff

[Tom]

3 blows the field away.
5 hangs like a bath towel - wet and used.
Pretty bad field all in all.

[barn32]

To make this easy, I use what I call Eye-Ball Scan Pace, which is a simple way to
Look at early fractions in my head. No rocket science here. Eye-Ball-Pace. I like that. You are such a cool guy...(when you're not hating on everybody.) :cool:

[raybo]

Eye-Ball-Pace. I like that. You are such a cool guy...(when you're not hating on everybody.) :cool:

I agree, Tom's "Eye-Ball-Pace" method appears to be both simple and effective. My take on Tom's "hating on everybody" is that he's usually dead on. :)

Tom, I looked at the 2 screenshots shoelessjoe furnished and, of these 2 horses, I agree totally with what you stated, the 3 gets the lead and follows through in the LP also.

ps: hope you don't mind if I use your EBP method in my spreadsheet. I've been trying to simplify my own early/mid race shape determination process and your method looks good. Do you alter the "benchmark times" at longer distances?

[Tom]

Thanks, Ray.
I came up with the idea from using Huey Mahl's old Length Variant numbers. I liked the way the numbers showed how horse decelerated, like 7 -16 - 24 and it was a simple think I used on airplanes and sitting in rental cars in parking lots waiting to go back to the airports. No pencil or pen was needed. And urn time was easy to see.

For routes, I use a base of 44 and 109, but in reality, when I look at PPs, I just find the fasted pace line of the contednders that I would be using and set that about a zero. Say a line is 46.2 112.6....I would have 46 and 112 be the zeroes.
Yeah, a 1/5 is not equal to a length, but I find it more than accurrate to get conteders and then spent my time on only those who I think can win.

[grahors]

Tom,
I was looking at the PPs Jeff posted. How did you come up with your F1 for the #8 horse. I get 6-7-6 for last 3 races.
Where am I going wrong? Help??
Cecil
Pretty neat idea..me likes.

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,Thanks for sharing.Jeff

[Tom]

Cecil,
I think Jeff filtered on early pace - a couple of lines are missing from my PPs.
Looking at what he has, I agree with what you got. The 8's last two were poor starts, which indicated going off form to me - an early horse not being able to get over a pace he has previously been able to.

[grahors]

agree 100%...thanks for clearing that up.
Not being able to run to a pace the horse has done well at previously is one of my prime elims.
Thanks again.

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,After looking at that you are right.Jeff