Data Analysis

[traynor]

A quick and easy read on a complex subject that every handicapper needs to understand. Everyone has numbers. The important thing is what you do with the numbers.

http://blogs.bnet.com/ceo/?p=1321&tag=nl.e713

Good Luck!

[CBedo]

Thanks for the link. I just downloaded it to my Kindle and will give me something to read this week.

[Dave Schwartz]

I ordered the book.

[Tom Barrister]

Economists have been doing this sort of thing for decades. The problem with data mining/analysis is that it can't comprehend human nature. As far as I'm concerned, the "Numerati" who made it big are the ones who either included social analysis or whose data luckily (and often blindly) led them down the same avenues as logical social analysis would have.

[CBedo]

Sometimes human nature nature gets in the way of analysis. In Malcom Gladwell's Blink, he talks about an algorithm that predicted the threat of heart attack (as used in an ER setting in Chicago), that worked much better than the doctor's themselves.

Also, this is discussed some in Super Crunchers by Ayres (I think that's how it's spelled), a book I highly recommend (and an easy read).

[Tom]

What's a Kindle?

[Tom Barrister]

A Kindle is an EBook reader. I believe Amazon sells them.

[CBedo]

A kindle is the easiest way to spend a million dollars with Amazon. Being able to sample (table of contents and intros usually) for free, and then one click, buy a book anywhere at anytime without having to hook it up to your computer (it uses Sprints EVDO wireless network--no charge to you) is very detrimental to one's credit card bill! haha

Kindle is Amazon's book ebookreader. If you like to read, and like me, you always have mutliple books you're reading depending on your mood, it's way easier to carry around than my huge backpack full of books. I highly recommend it (I've tried the Sony as well, and I like this better). If anyone has any questions about it, PM me if you want.

(sorry to digress from the original thread topic)

[traynor]

The thing that makes "Numerati" interesting is the descriptions of "data mining." What statisticians and modelers call a "fishing expedition." That is, the researcher does not really know what he or she is looking for. Translated to handicapping, it is an extension of what Quirin did in 1977. Essentially, looking for new combinations in old data, or of different ways of doing something.

Gladwell had much the same idea in Blink. You may be favoring a certain kind of bet, not because it is the best bet, but because you intuitively recognize a pattern. The Numerati are trying (mostly successfully) to model and put numbers on those patterns.

Good Luck!