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LottaKash
09-06-2008, 06:44 AM
Hey All,... Back in the early and mid 70's, I bought a book, and it's been long out of print.....It was based on data that was collected, and anzlyzed by computer, by 2 gentlemen that are parobably resting peacefully by now....Now, keep in mind, that computing in the early 70's wasn't what it was today....The compact desktop computers of today are miniscule by comparison to what they were using way back when.....They were room-size machines using magnetic tape drives versus the HDD's of today........So, when this book first came out, it was a revelation of sorts, as up until that time, there was literally nothing to help the Harness Handicapper of that day.......

I used the method suggested to a great degree, but being lazy and smarter than these guys, I wasn't too, too successful....should've been, but, wasn't......

I would like to put out some of the findings of this study, piece by piece, and see how it may enlighten or interest any or many of you, when compared to how we do and see things today.....I will try to disclose as many of the tasty little tid-bits, in an ongoing basis, perhaps daily if time permits......

The first piece, is probably the most crucial of the lot, as I believe, based on my own experience and application, that much, if not all of the value, still remains the same, even today......

The following were the impact values determined by the computer study, and some of the values may be eye-opening to some, as the order and significance is somewhat different when going from a small track races to a larger track races......A small track is a half-mile track, and the larger tracks are the 5/8's and 1-mile tracks......I don't want to argue with this study, but I feel that today's 5/8th's mile tracks straddle somewhere in between the 1/2 milers and the 7/8's and 1-mile tracks.....As if I'm not mistaken the 5/8th's tracks of yesteryear had longer home-stretch's than those of today....I say this as the early speed is of almost as much important on the 5/8's as the 1/2-milers......

Keep in mind, that for both the 1/2's and 1-mile track that the applicable factors cumulate to explain roughly 70% of the outcome of any given race .....And what of the remaining 30% of the races ??......The explanations or excuses that were considered and suggested are these:.....

Horses feel, and do better on some days than others.....
Beyond the horses' attitude, on any given night, it may have come out of its last effort Worse for the wear,(Bounce?), or may have caught a cold or virus, enough to take the edge off, but not enough to keep it in it's stall.....
Today's racing surface, in ways subtle or obvious, can affect the outcome of a race in ways not always apparent in the past performance lines.......
While rare, good drivers make some big mistakes, and equally remarkable, truly poor teamsters at times rear up and drive like Herve Filion when fate drops the perfect lie in their lap......
The pace of any given race can botch up the cleverest pre-race plans..
This is called racing luck........


Half-Mile Tracks.

Rank....................Factor.................... ....Value.........................

Best adjusted mile time in last two-races..................60
Adjusted mile time in last race................................35
Post Position.......................................... .............24
Driver (today)........................................... ..........23
Best finish (by lengths ahead/behind in the last two-races........20
Class Rating............................................ ............20
Horse's Win Percent........................................... ..17
Best finish position in last two-races.......................15
Days since last race.............................................1 4
Finsh (by lengths Ahead/Behind in last race..............12
Finish Position in last race.....................................10
Larger Tracks

Rank..................Factor...................... ......Value


Best adjusted mile time in last two-races...................38
Driver (today)........................................... ............28
Adjusted mile time in last race.................................27
Best adjusted last-quarter time in last two-races........26
Class Rating............................................ .............20
Best finish position last two races............................19
Post Position (today)........................................... ..18
Horse's Win Percent........................................... ....17
Days since last race.............................................. 14
Best finish (by lengths behind/ahead) in last two-races.....12
Finish Position in last race.......................................11
Lengths gained/lost in the Stretch in Last-Race..........10
Finish (by lengths ahead/behind) in Last-Race.............7
Well that's the start of this......Food for thought, anyway......Is this the way you rank things.?

Enjoy,

best,

Ray2000
09-06-2008, 09:50 AM
Well that's the start of this......Food for thought, anyway......Is this the way you rank things.?

LK

I too have played around with "Significance Factors" in many, many versions of computer programs to rate the horses. (Actually you can plug those numbers you cited directly into the Excel spreadsheet I mentioned in previous posts to see how it effects the Odds line.)
I finally settled on the standard 1/5 second (1 length) as the unit of comparison.
and adjust the following factors to what I believe is their "lengths" equivalent. The horses are then rated by summing these factors. Then significance of these factors then turns out to be:

Mile speed trend......24 %
Days off...............9 %
Driver.................8 %
Trip/bonus.............7 %
Med switch.............7 %
Post Position..........7 %
Post Bias..............6 %
4ThQ Time ave..........6 %
PurseSwitch............5 %
Break% Multiplier......5 %
Win%...................4 %
LastFinish.............3 %
TMaster speed..ave.....3 %
Trainer................2 %
TMaster class ave......2 %

The mile and 1/4 mile times are adjusted for Track Speed Ratings, Daily Variance, racing wides.
The Med switch and Break % factors are normally 0 so the significance of others goes up a little.

This ratio works best for me.:)

Sea Biscuit
09-06-2008, 10:01 AM
Hey Lottakash, I remember it was in the late 70s or maybe early 80s I can't remember now, I took up classes trying to learn the Fortran Language. After you wrote your program down you were given a machine something similar to typewriters of yesteryears which would punch out cards for the program you wrote. Then you take all the punched out cards which would be anywhere from 100 to 200 (depending on the length of the program) in proper sequence and feed it into a room sized machine and get a printout from the tail end of the machine. If you ever made a mistake with a dot or a comma or a colin when you are punching the cards it was back to the card punching machine all over again. And if you dropped all cards (which I did once) and get them all mixed up, you guessed it...... back to the card puncher all over again.

Aah.... those young uns of today have it so easy with their desktops.

Hey did I give away my age writing this post.. Hehe

Stick
09-06-2008, 12:18 PM
Ray
Could you give us an example of how these % are broken down to create a line in an actual race from any track tonight?

mrroyboy
09-06-2008, 12:23 PM
I remember the old IBM 360. Took up about two rooms!

Anyway guys I really like this impact stuff. It needs to be adjusted for modern conditions but it's still some good stuff. What do you mean by adjusted mile time?

Ray2000
09-06-2008, 02:22 PM
Stick, Mrroyboy

I'll do the 2nd question first.
(I failed to mention one adjustment above, post position.) and I use TrackMaster Daily Var which I say works best if you consider it in tenths of a sec, not fifths. There's a thread in this forum discussing this.*

Adjusted times take into account actual finishing time in seconds, say a 2 minute mile= 120.0 seconds. Then the speed rating for the track and the Daily Variance and the starting post turns this into something like

120.0 - 4.4 (mohawk) + Var of -10 (fast track that day) - 7/5 (Post 7) =115.2

Times are increased for fast tracks and reduced by 1/5 second for each post.
(1st trailer is post position 1.5, 2nd trailer is 2.5 ... )



=============


As for getting an odds line from the numbers, the % numbers in my reply above are "how significant" that factor is not the numbers used for ratings

Those numbers are more like..

Speed trend..........115.1.......varies best to worst ~4 sec
Driver.................2.2 ......I use USDRx5 meaning a .300 driver reduces time by 1.5 secs
Post Position..........1.0.......0.2 to 2.0
4ThQ Time ave.........28.3.......varies best to worst ~1 sec

No need to list them all.......

Adding up the numbers for each horse, I then subtract the mean from the individual rating and divide by the Standard Deviation. I use that number to lookup the odds from a chart. I only play 8,9, and 10 horse fields so the average horse will end up 7/1, 8/1, or 9/1. If you want the chart it's in the sulky xls file at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/ or PM me.


Stick

An actual race for tonight would be (My longshot pick) Tioga Race9
table attached..

but please note ..
the table combines final race time with 4thQ time because I use trends that I didn't want to get into here.
and after summing the factors I subtract the result from 200 so now the high ratings are best
my odds are not trying to predict posttime odds, I do that differently looking for overlays


*
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46006

Ray2000
09-06-2008, 02:47 PM
Mistake on adjusted time example 120+4.4+1-1.4=124.0

You want to normalize the time to a standard track, no var, post 1

banacek
09-06-2008, 04:17 PM
Sullivan and Adams "Predicting the Outcome", I believe. I used the harness method for ages (especially on 1/2 milers), still use some of the adjustments. Didn't like the thoroughbred one much. I still have them around here somewhere.

LottaKash
09-06-2008, 04:35 PM
Sullivan and Adams "Predicting the Outcome", I believe. I used the harness method for ages (especially on 1/2 milers), still use some of the adjustments. Didn't like the thoroughbred one much. I still have them around here somewhere.


"Correctamundo"......29 pts will be added to your score.........:jump:

best.

Ray2000
09-06-2008, 04:51 PM
banacek

njcurveball mentioned that book in
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48129
haven't seen it
the book I liked the most on thoroughbred strategy from the seventies was



The Science of Winning .........Burton Fabrican



Wall Street vs horse track market inefficiencies

banacek
09-06-2008, 05:34 PM
banacek

njcurveball mentioned that book in
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48129
haven't seen it
the book I liked the most on thoroughbred strategy from the seventies was



The Science of Winning .........Burton Fabrican



Wall Street vs horse track market inefficiencies

Yeah, I've got that one too..loved the comparison between the market and the races. But the method was quite tedious..have the earlier Fabricand one too - Horse Sense I think it was called.

Ray2000
09-06-2008, 07:42 PM
Yes it was. He called his method "The Principle of Maximum Confusion", looking for the race where crowd was most likely to make a mistake.

He also gave the answer to the age old question "How much should I bet?" keeping in mind the problem of the Gambler's Ruin.

Answer was proven by some guy at Bell Labs, ...Bet a percent of your capital equal to your advantage in the game.

LottaKash
09-08-2008, 11:25 AM
Hey Y'all, the next tid-bit from this OLD Computer study shows the signifcance of Early Speed at ALL Harness Tracks......

"Since it is speed that unocks good early racing position, we looked at the imprtance of good early raacing position using the results charts from roughly 1,000 races both a half-milers and larger tracks. These charts were analyzed to determine the racing position of the eventual winner at the half-mile pole."

HALF-MILE RACING POSITION OF EVENTUAL WINNER OF THE RACE..................

Half-Mile tracks.........

....................Total
Horses....................................Winners. ......................
Posn at..........
1/2 Pole.......... No.,.....%.........No.......%.......base rate ***

...1st......930.....13.0.....348.....37.4.....2.89 .....***
...2d-3d..1860....25.9.....294.....31.6.....1.22.....
...4th......930.....13.0.....111.....11.0..... .92.....
5th-6th...1848....25.7.....129.....13.9.... .54.....
...7th......891.....12.4..... 39....... 4.2..... .34....
...8th+....723.....10.1...... 9........ 1.0..... .10....
.........7182.....100,0... 930......100.o.........................

"This table indicates that while good racing position at the half-mile POST is important at tracks of all sizes, it is critical at Half-milers. While racing as deep as 7th at the midway mark on larger ovals hurts a horse's chances, it is not a lost cause; and, if the animal is 6th, it has at least an average shot. But at the same time, any horse in front midway through a race at a half-miler has things its way almost *** 3-times as often as you would expect by chance alone."


HaHa....I typed a whole lot more of this and the results of the study on Larger tracks, but somehow thru all this typing I hit the wrong button and lost it all, so, for now I will submit the 1/2 mile-track portion of the study and later on will update with the stats for Larger-tracks......crap....

Enjoy,

best,

Ray2000
09-10-2008, 10:37 PM
Lk
Too bad you lost the stats on larger oval tracks (I thought I was the only one hitting the wrong button:)) but
here's the numbers Mohawk publishes for Winning Trips

quote
May 1 to September 8, 2008. Includes 1104 races. Table shows the position
of the winner at 1/2 and 3/4 points. Percentages not indicated for
4th through 11th as all races had full fields.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9 .10 11
- - - - - - - - - -- --
1/2
376 161 126 122 119 91 71 29 10 3 0
% 34.1 14.6 11.4
3/4
440 200 119 133 81 66 34 26 6 3 0
% 39.9 18.1 10.8
end quote

Being upfront early is of course critical to winning, the hard part is predicting who is going to fill those spots (at the half pole) in any particular race.

I'd be interested in how handicappers here go about making this prediction. Some may rely on driver tendencies, some on class drops, some on horse past performance lines, some will only consider race-sharp horses (thinking nobody sends a lame or sore horse "down the road"). etc.

Only fair to give my answer, so the method I use (computer uses) is to subtract the call at the half from the starting post (1st trailer is post 1.5) for all good pp lines, then take the average. If > 1.25 then he's a leaver, if < -1.25 then he's a closer, in between he's a stalker. My method ignores the driver and fitness and that's its weakness and the reason for my question.

Any thoughts?

Stick
09-10-2008, 11:49 PM
Here is my question. Do horses that race up close have a better chance to win or do horses that are in form leave or make a brush towards the front because they are in form? In other words, when horses are dull do they tend to stay in the back or just sit along the rail? Then when they start to get back in form, the driver pushes the horse to an up close position. The stats are showing us that horses up close do better. But are they up close because they can win and the driver makes a move knowing that?

Take this horse's made up lines post/1q/2q/3q/stretchcall/finish
6-6-7-6-5-2
3-5-5-6-7-8
1-2-4-5-6-7

Let us say that all races were just rail rides.The last race was a positive driver change.The top driver is up again tonight with an inside post. This horse will show no way to predict an up close racing position at the half or 3q. He leaves, gets the two hole tonight, and wins. He was 2nd at the half and 3q and is another winner in an up close position.The fact that his form started to change and he showed an improved race will not lead us to a numbers search that indicates he will be up close tonight. That being said, any thoughts on how up close position can be analyzed and used in the PP to predict some winners would be a great help.

LottaKash
09-11-2008, 03:33 AM
Here is my question. Do horses that race up close have a better chance to win or do horses that are in form leave or make a brush towards the front because they are in form? In other words, when horses are dull do they tend to stay in the back or just sit along the rail? Then when they start to get back in form, the driver pushes the horse to an up close position. The stats are showing us that horses up close do better. But are they up close because they can win and the driver makes a move knowing that?

Take this horse's made up lines post/1q/2q/3q/stretchcall/finish
6-6-7-6-5-2
3-5-5-6-7-8
1-2-4-5-6-7

Let us say that all races were just rail rides.The last race was a positive driver change.The top driver is up again tonight with an inside post. This horse will show no way to predict an up close racing position at the half or 3q. He leaves, gets the two hole tonight, and wins. He was 2nd at the half and 3q and is another winner in an up close position.The fact that his form started to change and he showed an improved race will not lead us to a numbers search that indicates he will be up close tonight. That being said, any thoughts on how up close position can be analyzed and used in the PP to predict some winners would be a great help.

Hey Stick, good questions, and ones that we all should be able to answer at least to some extent when trying to assess a horse's current form or physical shape as of lately.. Whether a Horse is in good form, may be very elusive or very obvious at times..........It all depends on many things......It is more of a question of his current ability to compete vs. the class he is in at the moment.....A horse that is in shape to win generally looks a certain way (at least to me)......say a horse went gate-to wire in his last race and won it, and now moves up a notch in class, so we could say this horse was in decent form for this class....and say, his fractions were 28..58..128..1.58....well all we know from this is he can win wire to wire in 1.58 in this class....now say, his move up in class results in a line that looks something like this......6433.3,1-1/4 & his fin is 3,1-1/2 in fractions of 27.3..57.2..1.27..1.57......now from this most recent line we can't tell if he is in still in shape or got unlucky and trapped inside in the stretch or if that was all he is capable of ......You would have to rate him as iffy until the horse talks and tells you more.....

Often times we as handicappers use or look at early speed as an indicator of current form, this may not be true at all....Any horse can race quite well in the early stages of a race, like up to the 1/2 and maybe a little beyond that, but it is in the later stages and at the finish that separates the in form horses from the also rans........

From the results of the study on the 1/2-milers, it is quite clear that getting and manintaining good early positiion is of the utmost importance.......But often we confuse this with early speed, which by itself is predictive of nothing.....Many times I will refer to a horse with early speed, but what I am really saying is that a particular horse is in shape and quite capable of gaining a forward position early in his race.....That is a big difference than just having early speed.....

Of the 3-lines you used to measure a horse's possible form......Assuming the stated positive drive switch, the only line that would interest me at all would be the first one........667652......as he had a nice 2d place fin, but going any further without knowing the speed or pace of the race, leads us to an inconclusive decision on how fit this horse was......The fact that the driver is still aboard may say something, as the horse just may be a waking up and the driver feels that way too, and enough so, to stay with this horse.....still, the speed and pace will tell us much more that just that scenario......As for the others, they are dull looking, losing type lines and I would dismiss them unless other factors came into play, such as a poor post, interference, or being trapped in.....There again those excuses are worthless unless the horse in his previous race or two (to that one) showed some good form lines....
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There are several types of good lookingform lines.....and different types of racing styles as well........

First we will have a horse that just has to have the lead, the "Pullers". and this guy will always be trying to lead, usually they will finish out of the money or close to it....... Now, for the Puller, His good form clue may be a race where he, as usual, took the lead but was challenged early as well as in the later stages of the contest, and hung on determingly at wire for a nice close up finish, and this especially after some aggresive fractiions (for the class).....this horse is probably in shape NOW, especially if he shows a good last 1/4 that was faster than in most of his previous ww-tries.......Pullers generally have more 2d's and 3rd's on their box scores, and are good to use in your underneaths in the exotics, but generally unless they show the signs of form (above) they are usally rats, and can most times be dismissed as a win play.......This is not to be confused with a Horse that likes to race on the engine, but, has a high amount of wins....These are always a force to be reckoned with, and even if out of Top Form, they are always dangerous and keep us at arm's length when considering a play against them.....
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Then we will have a horse who loves to close in the late stages of the race, the "Stone-Cold Closers", and this is his running style, he never does anything else, and is usually far back early and during most of the race....This horse is at a bigger disadvantage than the front runner, as he has to get the right kind of pace and speed scenario to show his best stuff, and that, only providing he is shape or very lucky.....this type of horse's shape is tough to spot at times, but when looking for them, pay close attention to the last halves, and 1/4's.....Generaly these horses do not win alot, and you have to be on them when they get hot, as they will give you their all for a few races and then retreat in their form for awhile.....If these horses show a good last half and/or qtr, and especially if the fractions were average for the class, and they came roaring home, this is the best time to hop aboard.......Other times, when the ww-horses over pace in their fractions, you will often see horses come flying home and one might thing that this horse is the new champ on the block, mostly, I don't believe it, it's that this horse was just chasing home some tired stock in the stretch and usually I am not that impressed by this flying finish in these situations......Or if the fractions were unusally slow for the class, and a stone-cold closer was gaining good ground in the stretch, it just may be an illusion, as usually in races such as these, with all those slow 1/4's there will be a blanket finish and mostly all of the horses are there at the end....unimpressive for all concerned parties.... A horse in any kind of shape should be able to finish well in slow time, including the suck-along horses........
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Then there are the "Grinders", the ones who are alway racing on the ouside in almost every race, and some times when the pace and class are just right they will win.....these horses are tough to figure, as their best form often looks just like their so-so form, with only a little variation.....Their best races usually come when they have a good post-position and are in a race with few if any good form or high speed horses.......They just plod along week after week and surprisingly they usually take some cash in the betting as they always look promising, but rarely are......their Win %'s are usually 3 or 4 wins for the year....They do not figure highly in my handicapping......
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I saved my favorites for last, as these are the horses that, when in Top or Coming Good Form, are the ones that all the good drivers want to pilot....And it is at these times the smartest and best trainers are always looking for the best drivers to guide their babies...

These horses, other than the three types mentioned above, comprise the majority of horses, and their Top or Coming Form is much easier to discern when looking at the running lines........These will be the ones, that have the ability to take the lead if need be, or attack 1st-over trying to muscle their way or sweep to the lead , and can go 2d-over and get a nice trip and be in position to give it a go when it counts the most, or go three-wide on the backstretch just before the last turn, and drive to the wire from there....The point is, a horse in Good Form (if not one of the above 3) MUST have one of these attributes going for him in one or some of his last races, if he is considered to be in Good-Form.... And,these are the horses that we can play back next week when they have a darned good excuse for a loss in his last race, as we already know they are in shape, and with a liitle better racing luck should still have a great shot at a win in the next start....These types will have a very good Win%, usually these horses will win 1-in 4 or 1-5 races, unless they have a string of unlucky post position draws or road trouble in a bunch of their races........I concentrate most of attention on this type of, in shape horse....
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Now as to predicting who will show good early racing position and early speed to go with it.......Well, I think that is up to the driver.....Many things contribute to who will get good early position in a race, and the very best drivers will assess (not always correctly) how and where his horse races his very best, and will try and give his horse a trip that can utilize that ability, but many, many times it doesn't work out that way, and that is why I only like to put my hard earned cash only on the best drivers, as they have this uncanny ability to make winning moves at just the right time........They adjust and keep adjusting throughout the race....The best ones win the most races, and I trust their ability to get and keep good racing position, better than my own assessment of a probable pace-scenario.......Thank God for that......But, the MAIN POINT here is that unless you have a horse in Good Form or better yet Top-Form, you will have to be more lucky than the other Best Drivers and Horses......

So what is Good Form......?........A good form horse is one, who is able to set or overcome any pace, regardless of position, and be strong enough late in the race to win......Especially in the best Time and last 1/4..... These are the horses that show, in their running lines, that they are always trying for the lead and moving forward, toward that top spot, right up to the wire..So when looking at their running lines, it must reflect what I have just said...That seems to be a tall order and it is, but often enough the crowd will look at other horses' running lines that look similar and mistake it for our Great looking running line, and sometimes they will hand you a big-bargain in the process...

So in the end, yes if a horse shows no signs of aggresion in his last few starts, he is out of shape and the driver knows this and will race him in a suck-along position or just stay on the rail.........

Now keep in mind there are many stages of form, and in order for a horse to get in good form or shape, he must be used somewhere in a race , so if a horse doesn't try for the lead or go outside to challenge in some part of the race or turn in a powerful last 1/4, he is judged to be out of shape and should be dismissed from further consideration......There are always exceptions to any and all of this, but in general these points are valid..........

I am not sure if anyone was helped by all of this, but I sure had fun talking about it..........This is just my way of assesing who will get good early position and have a good chance to win a race......

humbly,

Stick
09-11-2008, 05:55 PM
Ray - a couple of questions

1. How many races do you go back when calculating the average of post -call at half.

2. Can any positive results be achieved by finding races with only one horse with a >1.25 and demanding this lone leaver has recent good form?

Ray2000
09-11-2008, 06:55 PM
Stick

I use up to 10 lines as long as no line is older than 3 months and toss out any qualifiers, lines showing any breaks or interference, or has no speed or class rating. I realize this might cover 1 even 2 form cycles but I'm after gate speed tendencies here not form.

I've never checked results for races with a single leaver, could prove interesting. My rating for each horse in the race does depend on the number of leavers, I treat no leaver, single, double, 3 or more leavers as 4 different types of races. (That's the "Trip Bonus" in my reply to LK above, #2)

LottaKash
09-13-2008, 12:55 PM
This is the 2d part of the study of "Half-Mile racing position of eventual winner of the race".....

The Larger Tracks.......

Posn...at.......Horses.................Winners.... ..................Base
1/2m Pole No......... Pct.........No. .........Pct...........Rate ***

1st...........1068........11.8........206.......19 .3........1.64.....
2d............1068........11.8........164.......15 .4........1.31.....
3d-5th......3204........35.3........430........40.3.. ......1.14.....
6th...........1060........11.7.......126........11 .8.........1.01.....
7th...........1030........11.3........80.......... 7.5.......... .66.....
8th........... 956........10.5....... 50..........4.7.......... .44.....
9th+......... 700........ 7.7....... 12.........1.1.......... .15.....
9086.......100.0......1086........100.0........... ....


"Lets put speed into perspective at the larger tracks. The previous emphasis on speed at half-milers in no way makes light of quickness at the larger ovals. In fact, both table -b and the bar chart show speed to also be the most important factor at larger tracks..Further, the order of finish at larger tracks is also influenced by the relative abilities of the animals to cover the last quarter quickly. While last quarter time at half-milers showed little significance, this factor was fourth-ranked in importance at the larger tracks; in fact, looking at both the best adjusted last quarter-time and the best adjusted mile time in the last two races provides anoverall assessment of speed at larger tracks that is predictive of final outcome as is adjusted final time alone at half-milers....."

"By "looking at" mile and last quarter times, we mean doing so in the right proportions. Statistically, adjusted mile time is 50% more important than adjusted last quarter time..Of course, last quarter time influences mile time and this redundancy must be taken into consideration; however, any animal that can demonstrate both superior final and last quarter times in its last two races is clearly a leading contender tonight......"

well that's it for this portion of this old study......It still rings true even today.....I think.......

best,