2yo Beyer Figures

[Anoniem]

Can you correlate Beyer figures in a 2yo to possibility of maturing to stakes caliber horse? What type of Beyer figure do you look for in a 2yo when breaking their maiden, if this is the case?

For example, Derby contenders, what were their average Beyers as 2yo's?

[classhandicapper]

If you want to make a very rough estimate, my research suggested that 2YOs and 3YOs improve by about 1.2 Beyer points per month. If you start from the Grade 1 Beyer Stakes Par of about 115 for older males and work your way backwards that will get you into the ballpark for younger stakes caliber horses. For example, the highest level stakes caliber 2YOs should be running a figure of about 100 (give or take a couple) at year end.

The really premier Grade 1s tend to be a little faster than this scale (Breeder's Cup, Derby, Preakness etc...)

The American Racing Manual gives you Beyer figures for all Graded stakes. That's very useful. DRF Simulcast Daily has a Beyer figure PARS section that is also useful.

All that said, it is very difficult to project improvement like that. Some horses are early bloomers, some are late bloomers, some run big figures at 2 in sprints but can't stretch out, some start showing what they are really made of as the distances stretch etc...

[Tom]

Yes Class, a big :ThmbUp: to ARM...I find the list of Beyers for all the stakes very useful.