Position or Lengths

[shoelessjoe]

I had put this on another site and I decided to see what kind of response I would get here.

Between these two horses who do you think would be on the lead at the 1st call


Horse A 22.4 1ST by a head

Horse B 22.1 3RD 2 lengths back


My initial reaction was B but after talking to a good friend of mine who said when looking for early horses only look at horses who are postioned 1st I believe he is right.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think you can draw too strong a conclusion off a single race. You have to look at the horses' record.

I think there are preferred running styles. There are also faster and slower horses within those styles and instances where a horse breaks a step slower/faster than usual or gets bumped out of the gate ever so slightly.

If horse "B" often tries for the lead and simply got outsprinted by a faster speed horse in that last race, he might get the lead from "A" is they meet assuming that was the best "A" could do.

If horse "B" tends to stalk and "A" typically tries for the lead, then perhaps "A" will get the lead when they meet.

[46zilzal]

I had put this on another site and I decided to see what kind of response I would get here.

Between these two horses who do you think would be on the lead at the 1st call


Horse A 22.4 1ST by a head

Horse B 22.1 3RD 2 lengths back


My initial reaction was B but after talking to a good friend of mine who said when looking for early horses only look at horses who are positioned 1st I believe he is right.

It was funny there, and outrageous the second time through: YOU CANNOT TELL A THING ABOUT A RACE AT THE FIRST CALL as a stand alone factor. Many ,many times, a horse coming from a very fast heat gets a break, finding a slower early pace (just happened last week in the nightcap at Woodbine) and his inherent ability to generate a specific velocity gets "unmasked" and he is UP on the pace.......Happens every day of the week.

The first call is also cluttered with "lucky breakers," (Rick's Natural Star was up on the lead in the BC Turf and where did he finish?) and it not until the 2nd call that any logical, repeatable long term analysis stands the test of review as being predictive of the END of the race. Also, unless it is a match race, there are a few others there to interact with the outcome. Looking a two in isolation is fraught with error.

If the first break were predictive, it would be a mainstay of handicapping.

IT's NOT

[CincyHorseplayer]

When it comes to handicapping like this,which I do and is a very valid approach,don't try to split hairs too much.Look for bigger edges.

[robert99]

A great question which gets right to the fundamentals.
In general, your friend would be right depending on the way races tend to be run in a particular State and the speed of the track and barrier draw. A horse's habits dominate the pace shape along with its jockey who may not always use the full potential of a horse, if not necessary to do so early on, but wait a while to push on late, with energy plus in reserve, if things don't get to speed up. It's only getting to the line first that counts. Many horses have speed to burn early on but few can make that last to the finish. The further away from the line the horse is the less well the jockey can estimate how long it is going to last so tends more towards caution early on.

[Light]

The best predictor for me has been the Quirin style rating.If the slower fractioned horse is an E type, and the faster fractioned horse is not, then the slower fractioned E horse will get the lead.

[cj's dad]

insufficient data to make a valid conclusion.

[46zilzal]

insufficient data to make a valid conclusion.

At the risk of sounding like H.A.L. from 2001, I agree wholeheartedly.
This was originally on a Sartin website and if one goes to Brohammer's Modern Pace Handicapping, as regards the original "truck drivers" study p. 110,
"They examined 143 variables considered by experts as exerting the most influence on the outcome of races. .....Only a few met the basic criterion set by the group: to be viable, any factor or variable must consistently rank the winner in the top four in the race. "Consistently" was defined as 67%. The following factors survived the test:
1) second call velocity
2) Average pace: in sprints and routes defined differently
3) Sustained pace (2nd call velocity plus final fraction velocity)

No first call by itself anywhere

[classhandicapper]

At the risk of sounding like H.A.L. from 2001, I agree wholeheartedly.
This was originally on a Sartin website and if one goes to Brohammer's Modern Pace Handicapping, as regards the original "truck drivers" study p. 110,
"They examined 143 variables considered by experts as exerting the most influence on the outcome of races. .....Only a few met the basic criterion set by the group: to be viable, any factor or variable must consistently rank the winner in the top four in the race. "Consistently" was defined as 67%. The following factors survived the test:
1) second call velocity
2) Average pace: in sprints and routes defined differently
3) Sustained pace (2nd call velocity plus final fraction velocity)

No first call by itself anywhere

I can only think of a few instances where an evaluation of the first call fraction is useful.

1. On extremely biased surfaces (like the AQU Inner track from time to time), very inferior horses with sharp 1st quarter speed sometimes outrun their typical performance by simply taking the lead very early in the race and then outrunning expectations to the 2nd call.

2. Extremely fast/slow first quarters sometimes give you a clue as to the impact on final time and the result the pace had that the second call alone will not reveal as clearly.

3. Horses that do far their best running when loose on the lead can either be upgraded or downgraded depending on the probability of them getting the lead quickly.

These are exceptions though.

[equicom]

In theory, horse A is more likely to lead. This is firstly because it is not entirely up to the horse where he runs, as the rider has quite a lot of say in that matter. Secondly, he may have a preference for racing in front, and we must assume that the rider is aware of that.

But even so, the time that is run is not always the fastest time that could have been run. It is just the time that was run. For example, the horse in the lead of horse B's race may have been pressed faster by a stalker, whereas perhaps that did not happen in horse A's race.

Early speed is not the best way to measure a horse's ability anyway. It is one factor that you can look at. I would say the most important thing is how well the horse can handle the distance because it doesn't matter how speedy he is, he will lose if he runs out of oxygen too soon. You can't run fast when your body is shutting down.

[46zilzal]

The early bias is alive and well in Bebsalem Pennsylvania today!

[46zilzal]

Early speed is not the best way to measure a horse's ability anyway. It is one factor that you can look at. I would say the most important thing is how well the horse can handle the distance because it doesn't matter how speedy he is, he will lose if he runs out of oxygen too soon. You can't run fast when your body is shutting down.
Early speed to the 2nd call is the backbone of racing on dirt. Always has been.

[Charlie D]

The early bias is alive and well in Bebsalem Pennsylvania today!


Maybe Joe on the Go and Western Illusion should have run today instead of yesterday then


What happens in Fr1 determines what happens in Fr2 and what happens in Fr1 and Fr2 determines what happens in Fr3

ALL these as a WHOLE determine who is First past the winning Post, who is 2nd and 3rd and so on

[Tom]

:4::6:-you've made your point - how about shutting up and letting other people post thier opinions. Many people effectivly use the FCP to profitable ends. You don't. End of story - and certainly not the backbone of racing. Early horses who do not lead at the FCP are poor bets to lead at the second. As demonstrated over and over and over and over by the Hat and his able protege, Richie. Over and over and over.

Shoeless asks a good question....just not enough info. Joe, I would look at speed points. I will almost always take speed points from appropriate races over velocity for FCP anaylsis. NTL horse will run whatever they have to to get the lead. That will kill off many of them. I put my emphasis like this - FCP = the horse, 2CP = velocity (pace) and Final fraction = the rider.

[Charlie D]

You've made your point - how about shutting up and letting other people post thier opinions..

OK Tom :)

[Tom]

Sorry, Charlie, you bumped my reply to 46 - see EDITED version!;)

[Charlie D]

No need for the apology Tom and your right it is a good question with not enough info

[equicom]

Early speed to the 2nd call is the backbone of racing on dirt. Always has been.

Untrue. By that reasoning, all horses that lead to the 2nd call on a dirt track would win. A lot do, but plenty also come from further back to win.

Early speed is often dictated by the jockey as much as the horse, and as such it is not a terribly reliable indicator. Otherwise Beyer and Pace numbers would be all you need to get a winner, and it's obviously not what happens in reality.

I advocate looking at a wide range of factors in which early speed is a consideration, but only a part of the whole equation. Keeping in mind that the jockey plays a role in the speed, and also the track condition, weather, purse level, prestige, and even the presence of seagulls(!), there are too many factors involved to decide the quality of a race performance based on early speed alone.

[46zilzal]

Early speed is often dictated by the jockey as much as the horse, and as such it is not a terribly reliable indicator. Otherwise Beyer and Pace numbers would be all you need to get a winner, and it's obviously not what happens in reality.
.
The jockey....dream world

Beyers...another fantasy that leaves out all that happened before the wire.

[Light]

The question was not who would win but who would get the lead.

But for a speed horse to win on the front end,I find he or she must have 3 characteristics as far as numbers(form aside),for me to use them as a potential wire job.

1) Must have a significant gap in Quirin style points like an E5 v. an E2 or better.

2) Must have a significant gap advantage to the 2nd pace call. At least 3 pace points or more.(Using Bris #'s)

3) Total pace rating of our speed horse candidate must be within a predetermined range of the overall top rated horse or horses.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm sure everybody has seen or used D.Mitchell's ability times(2nd call + turn-time fraction),sometimes if early speed is winning or I'm simply trying to identify who will be in front in a wide open race,especially in maiden claiming races,instead of adding the turn-time fraction to the 2nd call I'll add the 1st fraction to the 2nd call and it'll point out early lead types;here's just a hypothetical example

22.2--45.4=68.1

22.1--45.2=67.4

22.3--45.3=68.1

In many races though it's not that close,here's one from Thistledown a few weeks ago;

23.2--47.2=70.4

23.4--47.3=71.2

23--46.4=69.4

At a glance it doesn't seem like much,the turn times are within a 5th of a second of each other but I find that when there is a full second disparity between early number(2nd call + 1st Fr) it usually points out a lone speed horse.

I'm not into pure gimicky handicapping but I've seen this enough to know it works.I have had a lot of scores on maiden drop downs with 0-13 Beyer Speed Figures wire a field with the above numbers because they get clear running.

[RichieP]

Hi Mike (P.A.)
If you could expand greatly the size of attachments allowed here I have several lessons/exercises from Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw regarding the 1st call dealing with both positions and beaten lengths that I could post here for your readers to have. These are things not covered in his last and final book "Matchup2".

The things I would put up are a blend of both mental intuitive helping exercises along with step by step layouts of his methods of teaching his matchup concepts involving cold hard numbers found in the pp's.

Hat was taken aback when folks would think this intuitive stuff was garbage and had no place in predicting horse races when in fact that same intuitive stuff was present in virtually all other aspects of all people's lives.

Then if your members here were interested they could see exactly what the Hat really did involving the 1st call and make judgments for themselves as to whether it is something they wish to explore further or dismiss them as things they are not looking for to help them. As it should be.

Mr. Bradshaw did not want his concepts/ideas to go away when he passed and trusted me to keep to HIS teachings and share what he did with folks interested. He was a very kind and gentle man who shunned confrontation and negative words/vibes believing learning and a truly fulfilling life can never take place when they were present. That last part I know has 0 to do with racing but it needed to be said as it was a huge part of the man himself. To gloss over or ignore this would be a great disservice.

Lastly I have Mrs. Bradshaw's blessing to "share Jimmy" through what he shared with me. Btw she is doing pretty darn good. I had the chance last week to speak with her for about an hour which was really nice.


Take care
Richie

[46zilzal]

Shown to be a lost art by Gladwell in BLINK
and Hammond, Keeny and Raiffa's book SMART CHOICES.

[shoelessjoe]

Hi Richie,Thanks for replying and that would be great if you could show those examples.Jeff

[shoelessjoe]

Tim,I respect your opinion but I didnt want this to turn like it did on the other site.I believe that the 1st fraction does take it's toll on the early horses and therefore affects the 2nd fraction as well.The reason I was asking just about the 1st fraction is that I was getting burned by just looking too much at the 2nd call.


I appreciate the response here and also the people who said there wasnt enough info.If anyone would like to include the 2nd fraction and show how they go about looking for who will have the lead please feel free to do so.Thanks Jeff

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tim,I respect your opinion but I didnt want this to turn like it did on the other site.I believe that the 1st fraction does take it's toll on the early horses and therefore affects the 2nd fraction as well.The reason I was asking just about the 1st fraction is that I was getting burned by just looking too much at the 2nd call.


I appreciate the response here and also the people who said there wasnt enough info.If anyone would like to include the 2nd fraction and show how they go about looking for who will have the lead please feel free to do so.Thanks Jeff

That's why I showed my illustration Shoeless.1st fraction + 2nd call points out lone frontrunners IMO.And that's what I meant by looking for bigger edges in pace comparisons.If there is not a relatively vast difference in the numbers,splitting hairs isn't always the solution.The next race is!!!

[46zilzal]

Handicapping with Sartin software is NOT DIFFICULT. You just throw in several representative lines from each horse and let the software tell you what is most likely to happen by comparing what you discover to the standards of the distance and surface from records gleaned from each race course.

Shoeless, you constantly discover obstacles of your own making. This long into your using it and the fundamentals still make up the bulk of your questions. PEOPLE go out and complicate things un-necessarily. Keep IT SIMPLE. One of the best things to do is find race courses where it is predictive. I have long abandoned west coast race tracks (other than Northlands and Stampede) as the software works MUCH better in the east as it allows insight into evolving speed biases (as have be extant the last several cards in Philadelphia). Find out where it works, even if it means abandoning those oddball tracks like Charlestown.

[Light]

The reason I was asking just about the 1st fraction is that I was getting burned by just looking too much at the 2nd call.


What track are you talking about?

[shoelessjoe]

46,Thanks for your observations I appreciate it.

[shoelessjoe]

Light,Lately at Suffolk and Finger Lakes,I know these may seem like oddball[as 46 calls it]tracks to play.When I first started 40 years ago I played Charles Town and Shenandoah Downs[i really miss playing the 3.5 and 5.5 furlong races there].So I prefer to play tracks which offer cheap claiming races such as these.Also I like the condition claiming races as I find most players wont even bother to see who fits the race or not.Sorry to stray from the original topic but I was just thinking back,you have to excuse us old timers.

[shoelessjoe]

46,I reread your post and for this topic I was referring just using the good ole DRF not any Sartin Program.

[Tom]

At FL, you will want to to look closely at the first call.

[46zilzal]

46,I reread your post and for this topic I was referring just using the good ole DRF not any Sartin Program.
That is a significant problem. You have to ween yourself off the relative confusion those two sources create at decision time. Use one or the other but not both.

[46zilzal]

Light,Lately at Suffolk and Finger Lakes,I know these may seem like oddball[as 46 calls it]tracks to play.
Nope those are two very good tracks to play with many good illustrations of how the 2nd call is the crux of evaluating a race. I have recently discovered Suffolk (only this year has it been offered) and it is a good consistent track, EXCEPT on the lawn as many turf lines are not offered by my data provider.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hi Mike (P.A.)
If you could expand greatly the size of attachments...How big do you need to go? Let me know and it shall be done....

[shoelessjoe]

Thanks to all for your replies they were very interesting and Im sure helped others as well.Jeff

[shoelessjoe]

Hey Charlie,Best of luck to you,no hard feelings on this end.Jeff

[shoelessjoe]

Let's take this one call further


A 22.4 1ST BY HD 46.1 1ST BY 1 LENGTH

B 22.1 3RD 2 LENGTHS BACK 45.4 2ND BY HEAD


both are need to lead types which one would be on the lead at the 1\2 mile call.

[Charlie D]

Thank you Jeff and all the best to you

[HUSKER55]

If my batteries are still charged, I would say Horse A

husker55

[shoelessjoe]

Husker 55 I would agree with you

[Tom Barrister]

To me, it depends on what fractions the horse gets a clear (one length or more) with. Many horses can run fast in company but can't come close to duplicating it on their own.

[riskman]

Let's take this one call further


A 22.4 1ST BY HD 46.1 1ST BY 1 LENGTH

B 22.1 3RD 2 LENGTHS BACK 45.4 2ND BY HEAD


both are need to lead types which one would be on the lead at the 1\2 mile call.

Your answer is right in your example. Horse B reached the half in 45.4 and horse A was at the half in 46.1.

[classhandicapper]

Let's take this one call further


A 22.4 1ST BY HD 46.1 1ST BY 1 LENGTH

B 22.1 3RD 2 LENGTHS BACK 45.4 2ND BY HEAD


both are need to lead types which one would be on the lead at the 1\2 mile call.

Considering they are both need the lead types, it appears that B simply got outrun by a much faster speed horse or two. Given just this information, I would say B would get the lead. However, as I stated before, IMO you simply cannot answer this question based on one performance line. You have to look at the rest of both horses' records. Perhaps A is capable of more speed than he showed in that recent line.

[Tom]

I might not call B a NTL on that one line - he gained in the second fraction.
He lookes more like an EP in the example.

[equicom]

I used to think people accused Zilly of being a crackpot just because he was politcally opposed to their views, but now he's gone and said that jockeys have no influence on the horses they ride....

[Tom]

Jerry Bailey = randomly lucky. :lol::lol::lol:

[Light]

A 22.4 1ST BY HD 46.1 1ST BY 1 LENGTH

B 22.1 3RD 2 LENGTHS BACK 45.4 2ND BY HEAD
both are need to lead types which one would be on the lead at the 1\2 mile call.

It really depends on the track variant,or if there was pace pressure,inside,outside bias etc. Were these fractions recorded the same day,same class,at different tracks?,etc.

Shoe

I'm sure these examples have something to do with real world races you've come accross. If you have PP's for the races in question,maybe you could post em so we could discuss them without feeling so much in the dark.Or tell us what date, track and race you are interested in. We would also have the benefit of seeing the real world result rather than speculating.

[shoelessjoe]

Light,Your right actually ,I was looking for them but forgot what date it was so I did it this way.

[46zilzal]

I used to think people accused Zilly of being a crackpot just because he was politcally opposed to their views, but now he's gone and said that jockeys have no influence on the horses they ride....
Never said NO influence (FAR less than is attributed to them) but I have cashed many a large bet disregarding the majority of rider changes JUST because that influences the odds tremendously.

Who can forget Ronnie FRANKLIN? It was in spite of him that Bid won so often.

Put him on Citation and that horse still wins as well. IT is the HORSE doing the running NO ONE ESE.

[shoelessjoe]

This is something I heard today on an old Sartin Seminar tape where Hat was talking about the match up[listening to those old tapes I enjoyed him and Pizzolla the most].He was talking about early horses and made the statement that if a horse is normally a 22.0 breaker and today he only has to go out in a 22.2 he will have have 4 lengths of energy left at the end.I really cant figure out why this is so, I thought maybe Richie P or one of you other Sartin vets could explain.

[46zilzal]

This is something I heard today on an old Sartin Seminar tape where Hat was talking about the match up[listening to those old tapes I enjoyed him and Pizzolla the most].He was talking about early horses and made the statement that if a horse is normally a 22.0 breaker and today he only has to go out in a 22.2 he will have have 4 lengths of energy left at the end.I really cant figure out why this is so, I thought maybe Richie P or one of you other Sartin vets could explain.
HUEY MAHL for every unit of energy LOST early (used up) it costs TWICE as much later, so the converse should be also true: for every unit of energy SAVED there should theoretically be TWO units available in the third fraction. This is basic stuff that is in ALL the manuals.

[shoelessjoe]

46,I still believe jocks make a big difference in turf races,because of the cavalry charge at the end there is more of a chance to get blocked.

[Tom]

Hey Shoeless,
Let's do FL Race 3 Saturday. Looks interesting.

I'll start a thread tonight and we can do a deep pace match up. No computers. Just DRF.

[46zilzal]

46,I still believe jocks make a big difference in turf races,because of the cavalry charge at the end there is more of a chance to get blocked.
Trips on the lawn are OFTEN out of the hands of anyone's influence but dumb luck. Whenever there are a bunch of horses in close, the natural tendency of the animal is fear to get away from that crowding.

[cj's dad]

It really depends on the track variant,or if there was pace pressure,inside,outside bias etc. Were these fractions recorded the same day,same class,at different tracks?,etc.

Shoe

I'm sure these examples have something to do with real world races you've come accross. If you have PP's for the races in question,maybe you could post em so we could discuss them without feeling so much in the dark.Or tell us what date, track and race you are interested in. We would also have the benefit of seeing the real world result rather than speculating.

My feelings exactly. This has to be one of the most abstract posts ever put up. Simply not enough info; yet many are willing to speculate ad infinitum. I simply don't get it!!

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,Sounds good.Jeff

[shoelessjoe]

CJ'S Dad,Sorry you dont like it,I was just trying to get some feedback as many times I thought I had a lone early horse which ended up getting beat out of the gate by some other horse who I didnt figure on doing so.I didnt have the pp's as my computer crashed and I lost all the files.

By the way your son really does a great job with his pace figures and use them religiously to help me get contenders.Thanks to him and Jim Lehane I have been somewhat able to turn my game around.

Love the hard shell's at O'Brickeys.

[classhandicapper]

HUEY MAHL for every unit of energy LOST early (used up) it costs TWICE as much later, so the converse should be also true: for every unit of energy SAVED there should theoretically be TWO units available in the third fraction. This is basic stuff that is in ALL the manuals.

I used to believe this but I no longer do (especially when we are talking about a single quarter).

The relationship is NOT linear the way most handicappers think and most books present it.

For "discussion's sake", lets assume the most efficient way for a specific horse to run, on a specific track, on a specific day, is 23 47 113 for 6F. (I don't care if you agree with that model, it's irrelevant to the point I am going to make)

IMO, if he runs 46.4 to the 4F point, there is no way that slight 1/5th deviation from efficiency is as costly as the difference between 46 and 45 4/5. The more extreme the pace, the more energy is consumed by each incremental 1/5th faster that he runs.

That's why we often see the loser of an tough duel with a superior horse totally collapse in a way that most pace models cannot cope with.

Almost every day I throw out very fast pace lines where horses totally collapsed and my model says the horse ran poorly and then watch them run back to their better races and cash bets.

The linear models work fairly well most of the time because most paces hover within a few fifths of the mean for that class most of the time. However, they collapse at the extremes.

[cj]

Excellent post Class.

[classhandicapper]

Excellent post Class.

Thanks.

I filled many of the gaps in my understanding through discussions with you. I hope you picked up at least a thing or two from me too. ;)

[shoelessjoe]

Tom,Did you change your mind?I was looking forward to it.Jeff

[shoelessjoe]

CJ'S Dad,Thanks for the nice note I sent you a PM.Keep on hitting those double digit horses maybe next time your son will listen to you on some of them.Jeff

[Tom]

Shoeless, no internet last night - some nut hit a pole down the street! :mad:

I'll do it before the races today.

[shoelessjoe]

sounds good.

[Tom]

I started a thread in the Handicapping Section.

[shoelessjoe]

Cincy,In Jim Lehane's book he has something like that using the 2nd call in determining if there is a speed of speed horse.