An Inherent flaw in the PIPS methodology……Players beware

[Sea Biscuit]

I notice that the PIPS thread has been pulled off.

Make no mistake about it that I have the greatest of respect for Lottakash and I do believe that he is one hell of a handicapper and he has proved to me that he is on more than one occasion.

I am not criticizing his PIPS method. Just looking at the pros and cons of it. People who are already sold on this method should ignore this message and carry on with their business.

Those of you with an inquiring mind should go ahead and read this. Perhaps you will learn something from it.

On Aug 23 there were three elimination rounds for the million dollar Metro pace on Aug 30 and they were race 2,4 and 9.

Lets us take a moment and study these three races in depth with their fractional and final times

Race 2 27:0 55:2 124:3 1:51:4 Won by Nebupannezar with the 7552 PIPS

Race 4 26:4 54:3 122:4 1:50:4 Won by Annieswesterncard with the 7531 PIPS

Race 9 27:4 57:3 126:0 1:53:0 Won by Major In Art with the 8863 PIPS.

If you were a ‘Pipper’ you would choose a horse coming from the race 2 but most likely from race 4 because it has the lowest Pip rating with very good I-Pips and discard Major In Art with the highest PIPS and with the highest I-Pips . Who do you think won the race? Don’t have to run for the results chart because it was Major In Art from race 9 with the highest PIP ratings and the I-PIPS. Now why do you think that a ’53 horse beat a’50:4 or a ’51:4 horse.

Now it could be argued that the 2 yr olds improve from one race to the next. Its possible but most likely not in this particular case. The slow final time of Major in Art in his elimination race of Aug 23 was a direct result of the slow front end fractions that the driver was allowed to cut. Once the 126:0 slow third quarter time was registered on the tele-timer Major in art would have to run a 24:4 last quarter just to equal the time of Annieswesterncard (1:50:4) a last quarter which would most probably be beyond the capabilities even for a horse like somebeachsomewhere. You would recognize those races where the final quarter is the fastest and sometimes even the second fastest of all the four quarters. Drivers and trainers can only dream of such fractions for their horses on the front end but rarely get it in real life. I did cover pace vs Pips problem in my post #23 in my thread Pace quiz to some extent but LK chose not to reply to the post and ignore it. Perhaps it was a race which did not conform to his PIPS methodology. You will see in that example also a horse with a very high PIP rating and very high I-Pips not only won but destroyed the field as I had predicted he would. Now I can’t really argue about the notion of backing horses who go to the lead in fast early fractions because a very large percentage of winners come from those horses who take good early position on the rail and save ground but you have to also look at horses especially those who are coming from off the pace in the context of pace itself and check to see if the up front end pace was slow because a slow pace can really distort the final times as well as PIPs and I-PIPS as in the case of Major In Art (Aug 23 race) and Tacs Delight (Aug 14 race)

Lets us take another example. On Aug 23 there were two eliminations for the Shes a Great Lady pace. Race 6 and 7.

Race 6 27:2 56:4 125:4 1:53:3 Won by Racing Star with the 7764 PIPS

Race 7 27:3 56:2 125:2 1:53:3 Won by Backstreet Sweetie with Right Right coming second by a nose with 8654 PIPS.

Once again a horse coming from the higher PIP rating race wins the Shes A Great Lady final on Aug 30 and that was Right Right (which I picked) even though the final times of both these races were exactly the same.

Right there at the first quarter I have a problem with this method. Do you see what I am getting at. The real difference in the first quarter was only 1/5th of a second between the two races but the PIPS rating would have you believe that the difference was one full second, one getting a 7 and the other getting a 8.

A 1:52:2 horse gets a 2 digit at the end of PIPS and a 1:52:3 horse gets a 3 meaning that the first horse ran in 1:52 and the second horse ran his race in 1:53:0 The real difference of 1/5th of second suddenly balloons into a one full second difference in the two final times. In harness racing terms that is 5 lengths as compared to 1 length. Those extra 2/5th of a seconds which you deducted from the first horse and added to the 2nd horse do count in harness racing. It could possibly mean the difference between winning and losing.

Before you think of retirement and becoming a Pipper, think about what I have just written.

Have a good day.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just so everyone is clear, the PIPS thread was pulled at the request of the AUTHOR. I have always honored such requests in the past.

[LottaKash]

2YO'S....THAT'S ALL........They haven't, as of yet, developed their true talents, and a good pipper understands this......Either way whether you use straight final times or pips, the results will be the same, because they are the same.....I didn't invent anything new.....I just made the distinction clearer, and that is all.....

I hope this helped.........:cool: and Biscuit, I guess this is not for you...but I like it mucho much.....Please, if you need to ask questions, then do that.....I understand the inner workings and the power of this method of madness, and I make money at it, that is all.......If some things are not clear to you, then open your mind a bit and relax......Each race is different, and Pips are not the magic black box, as I suspect you may be looking for.......And, I never made that claim.....What I was promising is, to help anyone improve their handicapping...This is still a thinking man's game.......This is an aid to that cause .........

humbly,

[Tom]

I don't recall the PIP of one race being the criteria of a bet.

[Sea Biscuit]

I probably have asked a dozen questions with regards to PIPS in this very thread.

I would be happy if you address those, if not it will all be the same.

[LottaKash]

I don't recall the PIP of one race being the criteria of a bet.

Tom, you are correct.....got to the head of the class.....and when you get to Heaven, the Good Lord will give you copious rebates.....

best,

[mrroyboy]

I think you guys don't understand the pips. They are NOT a speed rating. The numbers indicate horses coming out of fast races. What they do in those races is the whole key.

[mrroyboy]

One more thing. I also liked Right Right in the race you described. My pip numbers pointed to him so one of us did them wrong.

[LottaKash]

I probably have asked a dozen questions with regards to PIPS in this very thread.

I would be happy if you address those, if not it will all be the same.



Then so be it......I have planned on expanding on this point of view in the very near future, as there is so much more to this than what, I had introduced to you all, since I had first presented the basics......the basics....the basics.....

Sea Biscuit, I firmly believe your handicapping and my own mimics each of the others at many turns of the cards, and that is why I can't understand why you are so hot under the collar about all this.......What help have you given anyone about improving their skills as players ?......

My selections posted to this forum are solidly anchored by the pips....And, when posting them I often refer to the pips....What more could you want from me ?.....Isn't that evidence enough that there just may be some proof in the pudding......Relax and have some fun....No one is forcing you to do anything.....I honestly do not have the time to go and re-hash a race that happened last week or two.....

So, it's not BEWARE it is BE-AWARE.....

best,

[LottaKash]

I think you guys don't understand the pips. They are NOT a speed rating. The numbers indicate horses coming out of fast races. What they do in those races is the whole key.

Hey Roy, quite right with that, you've got it !......:jump:

best,

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

A 1:52:2 horse gets a 2 digit at the end of PIPS and a 1:52:3 horse gets a 3

SB,
I actually brought this up in another post,because LK does NOT round UP on a .3,he rounds DOWN.


Just so everyone is clear, the PIPS thread was pulled at the request of the AUTHOR. I have always honored such requests in the past.

P.A.,
I saw his last entry on that thread where he posted 'SAYONARA' in CAPS!So I copied it to WORD immediately,in case I wanted to look over it later.

[LottaKash]

Just so everyone is clear, the PIPS thread was pulled at the request of the AUTHOR. I have always honored such requests in the past.

Mike, many, many thanks for that, and Folks there is a reason for this, and as time wears on you will understand why this is so......the BETA's know......

best,

[LottaKash]

SB,
I actually brought this up in another post,because LK does NOT round UP on a .3,he rounds DOWN.




P.A.,
I saw his last entry on that thread where he posted 'SAYONARA' in CAPS!So I copied it to WORD immediately,in case I wanted to look over it later.

Hey Times, my oh my, aren't you the perceptive one.......:jump: ....good read...

best

[Sea Biscuit]

I think you guys don't understand the pips. They are NOT a speed rating. The numbers indicate horses coming out of fast races. What they do in those races is the whole key.

Perhaps you are right Mrroyboy.

The gist of the message was to point out the pitfalls of a slow pace in harness racing which is a daily occurrance at harness tracks accross North America.

I am looking for answers and I am not getting any.

[Sea Biscuit]

.......What help have you given anyone about improving their skills as players ?......

best,

Maybe I have contributed to some extent for the benefit of the readers in some small way when I spoke about the pitfalls of a slow pace in harness racing. When I talked about Fysia going 5 seconds faster than average and came back to win the race and pay $9.70 you commented something about people not interested in what I have to say and perhaps you are right because nobody did ask me any questions on that point, but to put it in actual print form, is really very demeaning to a fellow poster.

[LottaKash]

Maybe I have contributed to some extent for the benefit of the readers in some small way when I spoke about the pitfalls of a slow pace in harness racing. When I talked about Fysia going 5 seconds faster than average and came back to win the race and pay $9.70 you commented something about people not interested in what I have to say and perhaps you are right because nobody did ask me any questions on that point, but to put it in actual print form, is really very demeaning to a fellow poster.


Sea Biscuit, I think you have misinterpreted pretty much everything I say around here......What in essence, I was saying was that there are some here, who could give a shit less about anything, anyone, says around here......not just you or me....

And, as for the other business,it is like this, I have laid out the foundation and the basics of "A Starting Point"...PIPS...and that is what I exactly what I had put out, nothing more......I just wanted to get some people started on a viable way to handicap the Harness......It was for those who are "handicapping challenged" and need to know more......If you had taken the time to carefully read all that I had said, you would've seen all of the if's and exceptions to the basics of the pip....

I had never elaborated on how best to use the pips, only just how to form them and then practice watching the patterns that emerge.... It would be Later on that I would explain how best to unlock the power and all the nuances that are crucial in making the proper decisions when trying to find the contenders and hopefully the winner.......

So, without you having the full monty on the pips, I took it rather personal when you bad mouthed me with a Player Beware post, as I don't see how that was called for, given that I hadn't even told anyone what to do with pips, as of yet........

If you don't care for my posts, why not put me on your ignore list, and you can continue on your road to happiness.....

amen,

[Sea Biscuit]

So, without you having the full monty on the pips, I took it rather personal when you bad mouthed me with a Player Beware post, as I don't see how that was called for, given that I hadn't even told anyone what to do with pips, as of yet........

amen,

A half a system is no system at all. If you took it that personal, my sincere apologies to you, Sir.

[Sea Biscuit]

I think you guys don't understand the pips. They are NOT a speed rating. The numbers indicate horses coming out of fast races. What they do in those races is the whole key.

Just what do you do with horses coming off a slow pace. Ignore them???:confused:

[Sea Biscuit]

SB,
I actually brought this up in another post,because LK does NOT round UP on a .3,he rounds DOWN.



Times:

So a 1:52:1 horse gets a 2 and a 1:52:4 horse gets a 2 also. Thats even worse.

Perhaps the author would care to shed some light on this question.

[LottaKash]

A half a system is no system at all. If you took it that personal, my sincere apologies to you, Sir.

Sea Biscuit, I still think you are not getting it.....It is not a system, it is an approach, a starting point........It is just the beginning of something significant, that I am willing to share with others, a beginning that will beget, a middle and an end point......How can you critisize a work that is unfinished, and touted as much....

And, did you really expect me to lay out 40 something years of handicapping knowledge in just one thread....?

It is not, that it is half finished, it is just not finished, not even close.........

I wish I were a better writer, communicator, and teacher, then perhaps you and some others would understand better of what I am trying to relate and share with you......

There are many, many people in this forum who own numerous books, software and have elaborate databases, and still, despite all that learning and information,and they are not where they wish to be.........Having said that, I am, these days, right where I want to be, not perfect, as I still step on my weenie, but now, more than ever, I have newer and more insighful ways of looking at a race, as opposed to years and years of previous hard times, always making mistakes and bad plays......So, is it so bad to want to share some of that with others who would listen.....?

When the book is finished, then by all means critisize to your heart's content, as I will have reaped what I have sown.......But, please not until then.....OK?

sincerely,

[Sea Biscuit]

Sea Biscuit, I still think you are not getting it.....It is not a system, it is an approach, a starting point........It is just the beginning of something significant, that I am willing to share with others, a beginning that will beget, a middle and an end point......How can you critisize a work that is unfinished, and touted as much....

And, did you really expect me to lay out 40 something years of handicapping knowledge in just one thread....?

It is not, that it is half finished, it is just not finished, not even close.........

I wish I were a better writer, communicator, and teacher, then perhaps you and some others would understand better of what I am trying to relate and share with you......

There are many, many people in this forum who own numerous books, software and have elaborate databases, and still, despite all that learning and information,and they are not where they wish to be.........Having said that, I am, these days, right where I want to be, not perfect, as I still step on my weenie, but now, more than ever, I have newer and more insighful ways of looking at a race, as opposed to years and years of previous hard times, always making mistakes and bad plays......So, is it so bad to want to share some of that with others who would listen.....?

When the book is finished, then by all means critisize to your heart's content, as I will have reaped what I have sown.......But, please not until then.....OK?

sincerely,

Ok LK we will let it go at that.

Case closed.

Again if I said something in my post which hurt your feelings in any shape or form, I am truly sorry once again.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Times:

So a 1:52:1 horse gets a 2 and a 1:52:4 horse gets a 2 also. Thats even worse.

Perhaps the author would care to shed some light on this question.

No SB,
Times ending in :1/:2 & :3 are rounded down.Only :4 is rounded up.

[Sea Biscuit]

No SB,
Times ending in :1/:2 & :3 are rounded down.Only :4 is rounded up.


Times You seem to know more about PIPS than I do. So a 1:52:0 horse gets a 2 and a 1:52:3 horse gets a 2 too. Its still a three length difference. Lots of unanswered questions. Like I said case is closed and no more discussion of the PIPS as far as I am concerned. Will wait for the PIPS book to come out. Good luck with your book LK.

May you sell a million plus copies and please don't forget us poor souls when you are rich and famous.:jump::jump::jump::jump:

[LottaKash]

No SB,
Times ending in :1/:2 & :3 are rounded down.Only :4 is rounded up.


Hey Times, and all, in a previous post, I had stated to do the i-pips just as I had described......Afte flipping numbers around for a good long while, I have come to have them just the way they are......There are other ways you can do it, but that is what I finally decided on, and it works just fine the way it is......This seems to give Mathy types fits, but trust me, they work......When you do each i-pip as stated, to arrive at a whole pip, in the long run, everything will balance out.......The proof is in the race results......

There are some who may need to polish and tweak the pips, as they may be searching for some dead-on-accurate type of numbers, but, that is not what pips are....They are just an organizational tool.....that is all.......

On the other hand, Bob "Pandy" Pandolpho , has some dynamite Speed and Velocity rating software, his Diamond Rating system.....I heartily recommend that software, as I have it, and I will attest to it's validity in formulating some very revealing numbers, and you can use it quite confidently when trying to evaluate a horse's chances of winning a race, speed and velocity wise that is........If you love accurate numbers, go for it, you cannot go wrong...It works...period....

As for me, using pips, I have chosen a path of simplicity, and by choosing this way, I have simplfied and strengthened my handicapping life and skills to a level that is much higher that ever before....My confidence level is at an all time high, and I am profiting more than ever before.......So you can tweak to your heart's content, and perhaps in the end you will make a very solid foundatioin even stronger than mine, but for me I like what I have, and will continue to use it, until my ongoing research tells me othewise.........

In the very near future I will post more on proper application and usage of the pips.....Pips are a cool tool, but they have some limitations and some obscure meanings at times, and must be applied in different ways in different situations.........One size does not fit all....Many times tracks will be different, classifications of horses, shipping horses, age of horses, and weather related issues, all present a different viewpoint in trying to solve the problem of how best to use the pips....

No one has, as of yet, seen the end results of the pips, so please reserve judgement until you see the whole path that I am suggesting.....

Times, this post was not directed at you, I just used this point in time, as a springboard to elaborate a little further on the formula issue....that is all.....

humbly,

[FlyinLate]

1) PIPs is not the end all handicapping breakthrough, and LK made that VERY clear in his original post. It was simply used for an edge in each race.
2) Your example is terrible. You used a 2yo race first of all and second of all you used one race to base your PIP. LK repeats himself multiple times stating to use 3 races to get a good number. There are too many factors that can ruin one race line.
3) It is threads like LK's PIPs thread that actually have people visiting the harness forum (something that doesnt happen often :lol: ). Threads like this make OPs not want to post these kind of ideas.

Good luck to ever finding a system that works in every single race. I don't think if this system won EVERY SINGLE race it'd be posted here (and for the fact that any system to always win is impossible).

When you can come back with one full harness card where PIPs failed over 60% of the races, then come back, until then, keep feeding the pools for us :jump:

[andicap]

Responding to questions as to how do you handle the slow-paced races, well I don't a lot about harness racing but I would say you handle a slow-pace race the exact same way you do with the t-breds -- you cast a very skeptical eye on any figures coming out of that race because all the fractions will be distorted.
Try to analyze another race with a more realistic pace. With harness racing since the horses pace/trot almost weekly i would think it would be rather easy to just find another line or two. It's much more difficult at time with the t-breds.

[Sea Biscuit]

1) PIPs is not the end all handicapping breakthrough, and LK made that VERY clear in his original post. It was simply used for an edge in each race.
2) Your example is terrible. You used a 2yo race first of all and second of all you used one race to base your PIP. LK repeats himself multiple times stating to use 3 races to get a good number. There are too many factors that can ruin one race line.
3) It is threads like LK's PIPs thread that actually have people visiting the harness forum (something that doesnt happen often :lol: ). Threads like this make OPs not want to post these kind of ideas.

Good luck to ever finding a system that works in every single race. I don't think if this system won EVERY SINGLE race it'd be posted here (and for the fact that any system to always win is impossible).

When you can come back with one full harness card where PIPs failed over 60% of the races, then come back, until then, keep feeding the pools for us :jump:

I had promised LK not to write about PIPS anymore until he publishes his book. Your post however deserves a reply.

If you have gained an edge with the PIPS I say more power to you. Perhaps you care to share with us your good fortune and tell us how PIPS have helped you gain that edge you talk about.

It was not about 2 yr or 3 yr olds races. My whole thread which was about pace and how a slow pace can screw the final times and also the PIPS. Do read again.

Like LK says he has given out only half the recipe and we will wait for the other half before we start cooking the broth.

[JBmadera]

1) PIPs is not the end all handicapping breakthrough, and LK made that VERY clear in his original post. It was simply used for an edge in each race.
2) Your example is terrible. You used a 2yo race first of all and second of all you used one race to base your PIP. LK repeats himself multiple times stating to use 3 races to get a good number. There are too many factors that can ruin one race line.
3) It is threads like LK's PIPs thread that actually have people visiting the harness forum (something that doesnt happen often :lol: ). Threads like this make OPs not want to post these kind of ideas.

Good luck to ever finding a system that works in every single race. I don't think if this system won EVERY SINGLE race it'd be posted here (and for the fact that any system to always win is impossible).

When you can come back with one full harness card where PIPs failed over 60% of the races, then come back, until then, keep feeding the pools for us :jump:

yep! keep on posting as it replaces the normal on track chatter us virtual sim cast players miss. I enjoy the exchange of ideas and I have incorporated a number of angles I have learned here (LK, Ray, Botster, etc) into my harness play.