Saratoga 9/1/2008

[MitchS]

Check my website in the signiture before post. I'll post some stuff here too but its time consumming...I'm waiting for the late scratches before I put up the complete card. I've added a forum so request additional tracks over there if you want to see something besides Saratoga...

Be back later,
M

[MitchS]

Been swamped posting tracks to my website. I've got up SAR, WO and CRC. Be back in a bit, need to check in on a couple races that I'm looking at for value..

M

[MitchS]

Heres Saratoga for this board. On my website I've got Saratoga, Woodbine and Calder.... 1st a SAR wasn't bad. Looked like a pretty high probability race with the top 2 choices that seperated themselves from the pack and finished 1-2... Didn't pay much though..

Have a great Labor day,
M






PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
9 3 29 5 - E 22 X 3 22 22.5 2.68 45.13 45.66 1.68 79.5 80 47.15 39.28 0 29.01 0 2 0.25 wide trip, gamely 106.75
10 3.5 37 5 - P 22 X 3 22.51 22.71 3.66 45.86 46.25 4.68 78.75 89 48.23 20.91 0 12.68 -32 7 5.75 checked break 112.12
1 5 31 5 - S 22 X 3 22.7 23.62 6 45.96 47.06 4.25 76.5 93 48.07 45.63 0 14.49 -1 3 3.75 angled 5wide 1/4pl 109.6
7 10 31 6 - E 22 X 3 21.9 22.71 8.75 45.16 45.97 9.37 75.75 85.75 47.8 6.65 0 20.45 -1 5 4.5 late gain inside 107.52
4 10 26 4 - NA 22 X 3 29.94 24.79 6.5 54.25 49.27 5.25 68.75 68.25 49.58 3.15 0 19.67 -32 8 16.5 gave way 91.32
11 10 60 5 - EP 22 X 3 22.67 23.16 4.62 46.08 46.66 3.75 68.25 77.5 48.91 23.35 0 5 6 3 1.25 traffic 1/8,split rvls 96.27
2 20 47 6 - E 22 X 3 22.36 23.3 7.25 45.7 47.19 9.12 67.75 75.75 48.81 2.36 0 16.21 11 5 19.5 svd ground for half 96.52
5 15 19 4 - NA 22 X 3 22.77 23.09 3.87 46.19 47.07 5 66.25 67 48.31 5.08 0 20.73 -26 6 27.75 brief foot 91.52
3 8 0 0 - NA 22 X 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22.68 31 0 0 0
8 15 0 0 - NA 22 X 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.93 31 0 0 0


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
8 2 19 4 - P 0 X 0 22.77 23.25 3 46.59 46.75 1 74 74 48.53 112 0 12.41 0 2 5 held place 99.9
6 5 17 0 - S 0 X 0 22.01 22.01 5 45.79 46.43 4 73 76 11 64 0 13.25 24 2 3.5 5wide, rallied 98.7
7 12 39 1 - NA 0 X 0 21.91 21.91 6.5 45.84 47.2 8.5 71 74 10.95 16.79 0 11.11 0 5 9.75 svd grd, no rally 96.7
4 30 57 2 - NA 0 X 0 21.92 22.38 3.75 45.2 46.15 4.58 53.5 52.5 48.91 5.25 0 12.26 14.59 12 30.75 4 wide, stopped 78.55
9 12 28 0 - NA 0 X 0 22.37 24.13 11 45.63 47.07 9 53 53 49.01 11.2 0 5 0 6 18 broke in air 73.7
2 3 0 0 - NA 0 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17.9 56 0 0 0
3 20 0 0 - NA 0 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.92 56 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 - NA 0 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.76 56 0 0 0
5 6 0 0 - NA 0 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23.57 56 0 0 0


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
2 1.8 22 4 - EP 11 X 0 28.5 23.86 8.25 52.16 47.36 6.57 89.75 93.75 48.12 232 50 17.39 -8 2 8.25 dueled rail, held 2nd 119.5
4 4 37 3 - P 11 X 0 23.39 23.53 4.93 46.75 46.87 3.18 88.75 94.75 47.68 154.54 0 20.91 -16 8 13 gave way 119.07
6 3.5 23 5 - P 11 X 0 23.11 23.81 6 46.38 47.36 4.43 86.25 94 49.25 134 0 14.93 1 2 6 no match 114.87
3 6 30 5 - EP 11 X 0 22.53 22.53 1.47 45.32 45.61 0.91 85.5 93 47.64 75.13 16.66 13.92 0 4 4.25 3 wide, weakened 115.5
1 4 21 4 - EP 11 X 0 22.27 23.11 3.68 44.5 45.59 1.93 83.5 94.5 47.24 82.91 28.57 29.01 2 1 10.75 kept to drive 113.72
5 10 22 6 - EP 11 X 0 22.74 23.17 1.75 46.34 46.52 3.18 79 71.5 48.12 65.67 14.28 12.41 -8 6 35.5 done far turn 104.45
1A 4 54 4 - EP 11 X 0 22.68 23.37 3.68 46.89 47.37 3.6 78.5 89.5 48.79 103 50 21.27 35.5 4 1.5 took up altered course 107.9


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
3 6 23 3 - P 19 X 1 23.24 23.22 3.37 46.34 46.78 2.72 95.25 97 47.99 65.38 0 13.33 -20 4 13 4wide, no rally 124.62
1 2.5 23 2 - S 19 X 1 23.28 23.83 5.75 46.58 47.7 4.37 93.5 97 48.55 159.91 28.57 20.73 -20 2 1 steadied wide 1/4pl 121.27
5 4 23 2 - S 19 X 1 35.51 23.98 4.5 59.03 48.37 3.75 92.5 95.25 48.99 51.65 0 9.17 -20 3 1 steadied break 119.85
4 5 40 8 - E 19 X 1 21.97 22.05 1.41 44.62 44.72 1.78 90.75 84.75 47.23 144.63 25 21.96 0 2 8.25 held place 119.17
2 15 19 5 - EP 19 X 1 23.29 24.17 4.12 46.29 47.54 5.06 90.5 88.5 48.11 4.72 0 14.6 9 8 20 trailed 116.35
6 8 59 6 - EP 19 X 1 23.62 24.02 3.75 47.15 47.63 1.22 90.25 98.25 48.65 159.54 66.66 17.07 30 1 0.05 rail, driving 120.77
7 3.5 23 0 - S 19 X 1 23.97 24.25 8.25 47.65 48.09 2.87 90 94.75 49.31 270.1 60 6.06 -20 1 1 stumbled badly break 117.62


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
11 6 18 2 - P 12 X 1 22.23 22.92 3.37 45.96 46.63 4.75 71.5 78 47.62 102 0 16.12 -12.4 2 4.75 3 wide trip 98.8
8 3.5 32 6 - P 12 X 1 21.86 22.18 2 44.77 45.09 2 71 67 46.49 28 0 12.76 0 4 3.5 rail trip, tired 96.7
5 20 16 1 - EP 12 X 1 22.68 23.35 3.62 46.18 47.02 4.62 70.5 73.75 48.34 11.63 0 5.97 -1 6 5.5 stumbled first turn 97.37
4 20 67 1 - P 12 X 1 22.34 22.72 6.12 45.75 46.32 6.87 70 79.5 47.38 12.36 0 9.09 10 6 4.5 no factor 101.17
3 4 141 3 - P 12 X 1 22.45 22.82 2.83 45.81 46.09 1.66 69.5 77.5 47.63 55 0 12 12 4 12.25 off rail, no rally 99.1
9 12 16 7 - E 12 X 1 22.16 22.24 0.66 45.29 45.35 0.53 67.75 68.5 47.35 32.1 0 0 0 9 10 dueled, gave way 95.62
1 8 5 3 - E 12 X 1 22.23 22.78 5.31 45.59 46.02 6.31 65.75 67.5 47.86 23 0 19.11 31 2 4.5 no match, 2nd best 92.22
2 4.5 16 5 - EP 12 X 1 22.15 22.3 1.53 45.88 46.26 1.75 64.5 68.5 48.25 24.19 0 12.68 0 8 9.75 bobbled brk, traffic 93.95
7 50 31 0 - P 12 X 1 22.69 23.11 5.5 45.95 46.77 5.93 63.75 73.75 47.87 1.74 0 3.57 -1 9 17.75 faded 92.5
12 12 38 0 - E 12 X 1 11.54 12 4.25 23.49 24.21 5.25 56.25 63.75 48.44 4.02 0 14.6 -11.19 10 23.5 saved ground, outrun 79.45
10 30 0 0 - NA 12 X 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0
6 8 0 0 - NA 12 X 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
5 4.5 16 4 - S 33 X 3 22.46 23.94 5.31 45.9 47.26 4.31 83.25 91.25 49.25 92.05 20 13.33 -2 4 2 check early,gd fin 113.25
7 3.5 15 8 - E 33 X 3 22.47 22.47 1.05 45.87 45.99 1.83 81 81.5 47.77 74.46 33.33 24.29 0 4 1 speed on rail 109.15
3 6 12 4 - EP 33 X 3 36.09 23.93 4.75 60.18 49.04 3.35 79.75 96 49 52.95 16.66 21.27 32 1 3.75 shot up rail 1/4 pl 109.37
1 8 21 6 - E 33 X 3 22.23 22.55 2.62 45.28 45.65 3 79.75 82.5 47.26 62.5 0 19.11 1 3 12 3 wide, tired 107.75
11 20 12 0 - S 33 X 3 23.81 25.23 9.75 47.02 49.02 8.18 77.5 90 49.84 13.82 0 9.09 2 10 16 trailed 105.32
10 30 26 6 - E 33 X 3 23.36 23.2 2.68 47.1 47.02 3.5 76.25 79.75 48.54 63.7 30 16.12 -18 10 18.75 used up 104.2
8 4 24 3 - EP 33 X 3 22.72 23.38 4.5 45.87 46.41 3.25 76 80.5 47.68 93 50 20.34 35 1 12.5 kept to task 103
9 10 21 6 - EP 33 X 3 22.49 23.01 2.12 46.07 46.73 3.37 74 75 48.47 68.58 16.66 14.56 1 6 28.5 offered little 101.6
2 12 50 3 - P 33 X 3 22.68 23.65 6.75 45.88 46.62 4.56 73.75 84 48.24 59.65 25 12.68 36 1 3.75 4 wide rally, drew off 103.4
6 5 31 7 - EP 33 X 3 22.38 22.75 2.56 45.63 46 2.62 73 83.5 46.86 80.83 37.5 28.12 31 1 0.05 awaited room turn 103.7


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
1 5 64 5 - EP 21 X 0 22.55 22.84 2.25 45.65 45.97 2.25 80.5 82 47.39 127.38 33.33 12.76 12 8 6.5 stalked 3wide 107.8
4 20 26 0 - S 21 X 0 22.76 23.89 5.87 46.25 47.2 6.75 79.25 88.75 48.23 2.89 0 5.55 0 9 4 never involved 108.05
3 3 26 4 - EP 21 X 0 22.29 22.58 2.25 45.16 45.29 1.62 77.5 80 46.06 114.87 25 25.14 0 3 1.75 in tight,bump,steadied 105.9
8 6 44 3 - EP 21 X 0 23.1 23.26 0.87 46.94 47.08 0.66 76.25 78.75 47.88 130.16 33.33 12 15 1 0.15 up final strides 104.25
2 4 19 6 - EP 21 X 0 22.42 22.81 2 46.18 46.48 2.25 76.25 86.25 47.8 100.52 50 19.11 28 1 2.25 hustled, drew away 107.3
5 6 37 5 - EP 21 X 0 22.19 22.3 1.62 45.53 45.54 1.37 76 74.5 47.52 90.84 50 20.73 28 1 0.75 fanned 4w,driving 104.42
11 12 14 3 - P 21 X 0 23 23.67 4.5 46.33 46.95 5.5 74.75 82.5 48.25 0.7 0 17.21 26 6 4.25 stalked 3wide 103.4
9 8 30 1 - S 21 X 0 22.1 23.23 5.37 45.4 46.49 5.25 74.25 85.75 47.08 111.36 20 9.09 5 1 4 going away 104.2
10 15 17 3 - E 21 X 0 22.7 23.48 1.37 46.12 46.81 1.12 73.5 77.5 48.37 42.77 25 22.68 0 4 8.5 steadied inside 1/2pl 100.6
7 30 7 5 - EP 21 X 0 22.36 22.68 2.43 45.22 46.18 7.12 72.25 79.5 47.05 12.19 0 8.59 0 7 30 brief foot 101.35
6 50 31 0 - S 21 X 0 22.01 22.69 4.5 45.11 45.9 4.81 71.5 79.5 47.12 5.62 0 5 28 6 10.75 6wide, no rally 99.9


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
6 6 51 3 - P 21 X 0 36.49 24.54 3.93 60.86 49.41 3.5 95.5 100 49.62 493.12 25 15.45 -200 1 3.5 closed, going away 122.8
2 12 33 8 - EP 21 X 0 36.84 23.96 1.37 61.41 48.5 1.03 93 95.75 49.34 57.63 0 20.34 20 5 1.25 set pace off rail 122
4 3 72 2 - S 21 X 0 48.47 24.05 5.18 72.63 49.52 4.18 93 99.75 49.31 325 25 9.17 -150 3 0.5 ang out 1/8, rallied 120.95
1 6 72 7 - EP 21 X 0 29.68 23.82 1.37 53.54 47.78 0.91 91.5 89.75 48.35 179.76 0 13.92 -150 4 1.75 controlled pace,wknd 117.72
3 1.2 37 6 - EP 21 X 0 0 0 1.62 0 0 1 49 51 0 750 0 14.1 -400 2 0.75 yielded late 63
5 15 64 8 - NA 21 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 86.19 0 0 2.73 4 3 0


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
10 6 506 0 - S 29 X 0 23.06 23.38 2.5 46.02 46.34 2.5 102.25 107 46.69 325 0 19.67 -320 3 4.5 6w bid,no final gain 134.35
11 30 30 6 - EP 29 X 0 22.01 22.53 0.7 44.76 45.17 0.66 95.75 94.25 46.26 193.26 66.66 18.53 20 1 1.5 duel 2w,clr 1/16,drvng 123.92
9 30 59 6 - EP 29 X 0 21.14 21.18 1.43 43.64 43.86 1.31 95.25 90 45.6 128.75 37.5 13.33 30 4 2.5 bid 3w,loomed,tired 124.07
2 12 502 0 - P 29 X 0 22.64 23.2 2.06 46.26 46.88 1.41 94.25 98.5 48.36 16.35 0 7.69 18 5 1.75 4-5w,failed to fire 124.9
13 30 31 3 - E 29 X 0 21.11 21.11 3.06 43.52 43.64 2.56 93 90.75 45.36 127.25 12.5 18.75 -20 4 2.25 finished well 119.67
4 4.5 338 5 - EP 29 X 0 22.48 11.6 1.12 45.13 45.64 0.57 92.5 91.5 46.18 273.83 66.66 20.45 -170 5 2.5 vied outside, tired 120.07
3 6 54 5 - EP 29 X 0 21.57 21.84 2.62 44.32 45.09 2.56 91.75 95 45.99 138.74 0 23.84 5 4 1 weakened 120.95
8 20 14 0 - P 29 X 0 21.64 21.83 3.25 44.06 44.48 3.12 89.5 88.5 46.14 71.11 0 19.11 0 3 0.5 3 wide, good finish 116.55
1 15 50 2 - S 29 X 0 10.78 11.56 4.12 43.69 44.35 4.25 86 88 45.97 103 16.66 12.75 20 2 0.75 rallied between foes 113.37
12 15 22 7 - EP 29 X 0 21.68 21.83 1.28 44.72 45.19 1.25 82 87 47.71 166.76 83.33 30.15 34 1 2.75 vied, clear, driving 110.7
6 5 21 3 - P 29 X 0 5.6 5.71 3 11.34 11.34 2 71.25 71.75 40.05 136.68 20 22.38 0 2 1.75 best stride final 1/8 92.52
5 3 359 8 - NA 29 X 0 0 0 0 59.56 59.56 0 0 0 37.3 119.33 33.33 24.29 -559.58 14 14 0


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
4 2.5 37 6 - E 24 X 2 22.2 22.2 1 44.91 44.91 0.15 94 89 46.02 372 100 20.34 188 1 4.25 hit gate start, clear 120.8
8 3.5 36 2 - P 24 X 2 22.14 22.43 8.25 45.61 46.19 5.75 92.5 94.5 46.24 181 50 16.21 194 1 13.5 with authority 119.17
1 4 18 4 - EP 24 X 2 21.77 22.07 1.32 45.04 45.28 1.5 88.75 91.25 46.29 306 50 12.41 100 2 1.25 3wide bid, 2nd best 119
2 6 39 5 - EP 24 X 2 22.79 22.85 1.25 46.15 46.19 0.5 87 91 47.54 534 100 17.21 100 1 3.25 rail move, drew clear 114.92
7 4.5 37 8 - E 24 X 2 21.81 21.81 2.05 44.29 44.29 0.83 87 82.5 46.13 138.59 33.33 28.12 185 2 2.5 set pace, no match 113.55
3 10 40 5 - EP 24 X 2 22.63 22.69 1 46.13 46.31 1.75 86.75 88.75 47.07 227.39 50 21.58 188 1 0.5 dug in late 115.07
5 12 39 4 - EP 24 X 2 21.98 22.42 2.5 46.21 46.41 1 86.25 82.75 47.72 145 50 18.44 100 3 4 steadied 1/2 pole 112.97
6 30 18 2 - P 24 X 2 21.57 21.91 6.06 44.48 44.82 5.68 77 85 47.16 67.24 20 12.26 100 6 7.75 hit gate, bumped 106.6


PN ML LR Q/S RP L2f H2f 2BL L4f H4f 4BL SPD Late FF CLS W% T% P F BL Tnotes Comp
4 4 51 4 - E 5 X 1 23.29 23.77 3.91 47 47.61 3.07 76 84.5 48.6 12.86 0 14.49 -22 7 6 stumbled badly start 106.15
2 30 23 3 - EP 5 X 1 22.48 22.85 2.97 45.89 46.46 3.53 75.75 79.75 48.05 11.25 0 9.23 -32 8 11.25 firmly rated, empty 103.62
8 12 23 4 - NA 5 X 1 21.48 22.4 5.75 44.2 45.48 8 72 72 47.13 2.48 0 13.48 -31 7 11.75 had no rally 99
6 5 198 0 - S 5 X 1 23.53 24.53 8 48.38 49.66 6.5 72 76 49.26 19.25 0 22.68 11 3 7.75 green, closed gap 94.6
1 12 723 5 - E 5 X 1 22.87 23.24 2.06 46.36 46.72 5.87 71 72 48.21 21.61 0 24.16 -13 10 15.5 4 wide trip, tired 96.5
10 12 26 2 - NA 5 X 1 49.66 24.7 3.87 75.43 50.34 6 67.75 74.75 50.83 3.33 0 20.93 -32 9 17.25 steadied far turn 89.17
3 15 29 4 - EP 5 X 1 22.72 23.34 2.68 47.07 47.94 3.18 66 81 49.21 1.04 0 11.2 0 10 16.5 gave way 96.35
9 3.5 254 4 - P 5 X 1 23.42 24.05 2.25 49.52 49.88 1.75 64 100 49.58 8 0 19.67 7.5 4 1.5 not enough late 93.7
5 12 421 6 - NA 5 X 1 22.79 23.08 1.75 45.66 47.09 9 50 73 47.76 3.6 0 21.27 -5 5 20.5 off slowly 81.9
7 3 339 8 - NA 5 X 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22.27 13.1 0 20.34 23.91 7 10 0

[MitchS]

Heres a REALLY good example race I had today that I'm going to post on my website. It shows how sometimes you need to dig a little bit in the race to uncover the nuggets.

The :5:th at Woodbine.. 9/1/2008

The winner of that race, the number 4 horse that paid $16.90 was actually sorted 5th from the top on the "SPD" rating. A closer look at the race shows that its a "RP" of 12x2 which means a possible slow pace in this race BUT, we need to look at both of those E2 horses. Awww.. One of those E2 horses is the #4 horse AND, he has a 2 point gap over the other E horse with an E5 number. Anytime we have a 2 point gap in that rating we need to pay attention. We then look at the "LR" and hes raced recently so thats good. His 'Late" rating is 2nd in the field so thats also a good sign. Not only that but he had the 2nd rated "CLS" rating and a -25 "P" rating droping in purse value. Heres the kicker. The "Comp" rating which is an overall comprehenxive rating he was ranked 2nd in the fileld with a rating of 109.75. He paid $16.90, so you can say that this horse had value and was worth the wager.

Hope this helps not only using my numbers BUT looking at your own numbers as well :) .. You dont need my numbers but you do need to pay attention :p , lol kidding! :D

Mitch